[00:00] मैंने 22750 का call buy किया था, 23050 के 2 lot बेचे थे और 23250 के 1 lot buy किया था So debit was 35, now this 35 debit went to 220
[00:13] तो अब आपका जो नुक्षान है, वो 35 रुपई से जादा होई नहीं सकता, चाहे जो मरभी हो जाए market में एक real incident हुआ था few days back, war का period चल जाए There is a negotiation going on between US and Iran
[00:26] There was suddenly negative news, market gap down हो गया अब first candle में market started recovering, where at some point, अब already traders were tapped, जो put writers थे, they were trapped, तो उन्हें अपना position cover करना पड़ा है,
[00:38] and market fell by almost 400 points intraday, even after a 200-300 point cap down, and वो double speed से market पे फिर फिरता है उसी direction, FIIs, DIs, Prop Desk, बड़े players होते हैं,
[00:50] बड़ा capital deploy कर रहा है, बड़ा risk ले रहा है, so obviously they do more studies than the normal retail guys, पर अभी यह जानकारा नहीं है।
[01:26] 2008 के बाद, एक तो पहले आपका उस time पर experience क्या रहा है, जि मैं आ नया market में आया हूँ, और उसी time markets tank हो गई है, and how did it help you prepare for the next crisis in 2020? So, अगर मैं 2008 की बात करूँ, I started trading in markets in 2007,
[01:43] 2007 में I started directly with the futures, मैं तो futures trade कर दा था, and luckily एक beginners luck जी से कहते है, मैंने market में trade करना start किया, and market was booming at that point in time
[01:56] अब जो stock लोगों उपर ही जाना था so luckily got few good stock like Reliance Intra, DLF and काफी अच्छा पैसा बना but market का journey जो कहते हैं ना we are like a avivanyu अगर हमारे पास exit plan नहीं है
[02:08] we are always going to stuck in the market and 2008 में वही हुआ जो position थे को cut नहीं कर पाए in spite of having a good profit and finally सारा profit भी गया capital भी गया and then
[02:22] realized 2008 के बाद that अब market में एक plan के साथ entered होना होगा चुकुछ साल उसके बाद मैंने learning पे spend किये risk management पे spend किये and came back in 2011
[02:34] with proper plan so 2020 में मतलब you were already ready and जितना मैं आपको जानता हूँ आपकी trading बहुत ज़ाधा systematic है rule based है so I'm sure 2020 सक तो आपके systems
[02:46] आपकी strategies completely ready होंगी and you must have taken advantage of that kind of a market so 2020 में जो fall था, okay जब लोग stuck हो रहे थे, people were making losses
[02:58] we were trading on a rule based system जो 920 struggle आपने नाम सुना होगा so 2019 से हमने full back touch के साथ वो strategy page करते थे and I would say 2019 से 2022
[03:11] was a golden period for that strategy काफी अच्छे पैसे बने so yes with plan with full automation we could take advantage of the 2020 सब 2020 2021
[03:24] जो तीनी साल थे ये एक dream period था option traders के लिए especially option sellers के लिए जो लोग 920 शादल टाइप चीज कर रहे हैं because premiums बहुत high थे and that way markets were not very
[03:38] choppy or volatile जैसी अभी रही हैं एक दो सालों में option trading में difficulty रही है लोगों को how have the market impacted your strategies और आपने क्या change हरा है पिछले एक दो सालों में
[03:52] ये नए regime को adapt करने के लिए so 2020 से 2022 तक एक dream run के बाद अब daily expiry मिल गई थी हमने everyday that was expiry
[04:04] different index was expiring so obviously we were only trading the expiry strategies and with passage of time जैसे नए traders आते हैं obviously that will attract some money जो manipulate भी करेंगे market को
[04:16] और जो हमने already देखा with the episode of Jane Street so what started happening is जो हमारी normal expiry day strategies थी वो चलना बंद हो गई obviously because of the sloppy moves
[04:28] market was moving on both the sides then second thing was the stop loss dumping जो sudden moves आते थे उसकी वज़े से आपके जो stop loss थे वो भी jump हो रहे थे so in fact अगर आपने 70 rupees से stop loss रखा है
[04:42] many time that was executed at 130, 140 so हमने सोचा that अगर ये 130, 140 पे हो रहा है किसी दिन ये 400 पे भी होगा 500 पे भी हो सकता है so we started scaling down from that period
[04:55] so obviously 2023, 2024 was the year of realization that अब थोड़ा innovative सोचना पड़ेगा थोड़ा cloud से हटके हमें trade करना पड़ेगा Sir, आज हम बात करने वाले हैं
[05:09] OI की Open Interest की नहीं इतना experience है तो कुछ आप से नया सीखेंगे नाओ ये जो OI है पहले तो सर एक थोड़ा सा brief दे दो हमें कि open interest होता क्या है and why is it important
[05:22] अब why it is important so it's just like आपने cash market में take किया होगा तो अब क्या track करते हो cash market volumes, volumes obviously so volumes cash market में
[05:34] हमें क्या बताते है that कहाँ पे participation हो रहा है like अगर price उपर जा रहा है volume भी बढ़ रहा है that means participation is going up and buyers are aggressive that's what volume indicate
[05:46] so open interest data is I won't say exactly volume but yes it is similar to that ये हमें participant का mindset बता रहा है participant कहां पे अपना position बना रहे है वो बता रहा है
[05:58] so अगर मैं simply define करूँ open interest is what? open position of the options and futures contract अब option and future these are derivative contract यहाँ पे एक buyer होगा एक seller होगा for every trade
[06:11] and that will be counted as the open interest तो जैसे ही किसी ने buy किया किसी ने sell किया अगर दोनों नए buyer seller है that will be marked as a open interest and वो count होगा वहाँ से
[06:23] सर एक बहुत basic question पूछ रहा हूँ volume और open interest में फरक क्या होता है so volume and open interest में फरक यह है that volume is general volume
[06:35] that जैसे एक trade हुआ वो volume में mark हो जाएगा but open interest उतना ही carry होगा जितना positions carry होगा so volume will always keep on rising but open interest
[06:47] can rise also fall also बेसिकली जितनी open positions है वो आपका open interest होता है volume है इसकी कितने contracts दिने आपके trade हो रहे हैं now open interest जब हम देखते हैं आपने जैसे का
[07:00] कि एक buyer होता है और एक seller होता है अब लोगों के मन में doubt क्या आता है कि जब हम open interest देख रहे हैं तो क्या ये buyer के perspective से देखे क्या ये seller के perspective से देखे जैसे एक strike पे हम बोलते हैं
[07:13] कि बहुत जारा open interest है अब ये बहुत जारा open interest है तो क्या ये seller ने short position बनाई हुई है buyer ने यहाँ पे long किया हुआ है ये किस तरीके से देखा जाता है इसको so for every trade as we discussed
[07:27] there is one buyer, one seller, right? अब हमें कैसे study करना है because कोई buy कर रहा है, सामने कोई sell भी कर रहा है so I always look this at from seller's perspective अब इसका reason यह है that
[07:40] sellers के perspective से क्यों देखना चाहिए because seller is the guy who is taking highest risk because buyer ने premium pay किया है उसका max loss would be limited to premium but seller वो premium earn कर रहा है
[07:54] and if his view goes wrong his risk can be multiple of the premium उसको loss unlimited है so obviously he is taking big risk and second thing is आपको option buy करने के लिए सिर्फ premium pay करना है
[08:08] निप्टी में आप 10,000 से एक लोड बाई कर सकते हो but to sell it you need 220,000 rupees so obviously seller बड़ा capital deploy कर रहा है बड़ा risk ले रहा है so obviously he should be well prepared for the move
[08:22] and उसे buyer से ज़ादा सरी करनी चाहिए that market कहां नहीं जा सकता and obviously because selling में बड़ा capital लगता है यहाँ पे players भी बड़े players होते हैं
[08:34] FII's, DII's, Prop Desk, Big H&I Traders. So obviously they do more study than with normal retail guy. And that's why हम उसे always sellers के perspective से देखते हैं.
[08:47] Sir, open interest का अगर हम analysis कर रहे हैं, तो what kind of an indication can open interest give? मतलब क्या यह आपको direction के बारे में बता सकता है, क्या यह आपको reversals के बारे में बता सकता है?
[08:59] अगर मैं इसको study कर रहा हूँ, So, open interest is like a normal data, right? Open interest का कोई color नहीं होता है, but what we do is we just try to read what smart money is doing behind that, right?
[09:19] तो जो open interest create कर रहा है, उसका psychology हम लोग समझने की try करते हैं using the open interest data. अब यह multiple signals देता है, open interest का सबसे first signal would be.
[09:31] अब suppose अगर मैं let's let's let's take a example market is trading at 23 900 24000 के call में writing हो रहा है okay अब जो call write कर रहा है वो कब पैसे बनाएगा market नीचे रहेगा market 24000 level cross नहीं करेगा
[09:51] और अगर वहाँ पे multiple contracts या बड़ी size में contracts add हो रहे है that means seller को लग रहा है that market वो level cross नहीं करेगा so view here is not bullish
[10:03] at least market 24,000 के नीचे रहेगा so that's the first signal यह हमें बताता है that market का direction क्या हो सकता है किस direction में market नहीं जाएगा that would be rather a better version to say that
[10:17] market किस direction में नहीं जाएगा अगर कोई put में writing कर रहा है so obviously उसका view है that market वो level के नीचे नहीं जाएगा so first signal we get अगर किसी स्ट्राइक पे बड़ा बेल्ट अप हो रहा है
[10:31] that will give us a direction for the market अब suppose on a single day market में put side ज़ादा writing हुआ है call side बिलकुल कम writing हुआ है and साथ में market भी bullish रहा है
[10:43] so that is indicating that now sellers on put side are comfortable market so that the first signal we get from the OI data Now obviously this will tell us a direction or a continuation of direction because obviously market is already
[11:01] bullish that's why put writing is done today. Now will it continue the next day or not that will depend on that data. So if data is also indicating put side writing is done, market is bullish then there is a probability that we can say next day market can remain bullish.
[11:15] That was the first signal, indication of direction. Sir, there is a question in this. Many a times it happens that you are right that the market is going up, so OI is added in puts.
[11:27] And naturally because you know people roll up their strikes, give extra puts against calls in example. However, in that case, does a risk also arise that the market is bullish
[11:41] Market is bullish and majority participants are making bullish positions. So, there is concentration of positions there. So, in case of a reversal, does that reversal also happen very sharply? Does this also happen?
[11:53] Yes. So, that will give us our second signal. Now, what is the second signal? Now, obviously, the trader, even if they have smart money, even they can go wrong.
[12:06] Right? So, if they are trapped. Now, suppose someone has done call writing. Now, there is a war going on at 24000. There is a negotiation going on between US and Iran.
[12:18] And there is good call writing at 24000 on the market. So, we normally derive a conclusion that the market will not cross the level above 24000. There is some good news. Market gaps open above 24000 to 24200.
[12:33] Now, the call writers who have sold the call at 100 rupees, whose price is 200 rupees. 200 rupees. So they are trapped now. So they can also get trapped and now what will happen? That would be double pressure on market on the upside
[12:46] because they will start covering their position. So either they have to cover their position or they have to delta neutral their position by buying the futures. So this impact
[12:58] comes both ways when they are selling and market is moving in their favor. It will work as a direction indication and when they get trapped that can also fuel the market to move at a you know greater speed so that means
[13:14] high OI strikes and as far as I have seen highest OI is on round number strikes like in Nifty it was 24,000, 23,500, 23,000 this type of strikes are the highest OI now one
[13:27] is that you told in the first point that market respects these levels in the starting that major positions here and majority are saying that 24,000 is a barrier right now. However,
[13:40] in case Trump says something and market gap up, then these people have to cover the position and there comes our second point that due to OI covering, a rally comes in that direction where majority players are sitting. So, there is no inherent rule that because OI is made
[13:56] on strike, then the market has to respect it. Is the all dependent market breaching it or is staying below it. Exactly. So, as they are also traders,
[14:08] they also get trapped. Now, there is no rule that if there is an OI, we can only say that with high probability that smart money is active there. Now, from their action only,
[14:20] we get an indication that they are trapped. Now, suppose market, now a real incident happened a few days back. Market was bullish. There was suddenly negative news.
[14:32] market got down. Now in the first candle market started recovering but at some point now already traders were trapped, put prices were trapped. So they had to cover their position and market fell by almost 400 points intraday even after a 200-300 point gap down. So yes
[14:50] it happens that they are gap trapped and it falls from market at double speed in that direction. Right. Yogesh Sir, if we talk about expiry, then I am sure OI will be very critical that day.
[15:02] Positions are at maximum expiry date only. So, do these concepts apply on intra-day expiry also? Yes. So, even on intra-day expiry because OI is powerful close to expiry.
[15:15] See, when expiry starts, the position is built slowly. But when we are close to expiry last two days, size increases a lot because people keep on building the position the position and they have to put too much money on the day because all the premiums are going to go to zero.
[15:30] And on that day both the sides work. If the market is in a range, so we can also find out the maximum call OI, where is the maximum put OI and there is probability that the market can be in that range.
[15:44] But if any side is tested and unwinding starts on that side, so what is unwinding is when call writer all writer or put writer start cutting their position, that is the unwinding.
[15:57] Either market will take support at that highest open interest built up strike or it will breach it. So, this will be the indication from their action. Even if market is not unwinding by testing that level, that means that is likely that market might take support.
[16:14] But if they start unwinding, so that will signal that market will fall further now. How do you check the unwinding data? Or is there a platform where viewers can see it? So, now all the brokers provide intraday OI changes.
[16:29] So, you can just track those intraday OI changes. Okay. So, you track this strike-wise? So, I track the strike-wise. I track the strike-wise. Okay. So, you keep checking on that whether OI is being added or unwinding.
[16:44] So, what does addition mean? You know, market is very highly likely that it is going to stay below that. Let's say we have an example that we took two types, one of highest OI, one of put and one of call.
[17:00] Many people also trade that they select the highest OI call put and sell a strangle or a straddle on it. And the assumption is that the market is going to stay in between this. So I want to understand this trade from you that let's say we put some trade like this.
[17:15] Now after putting this trade, what will you track in OI and how will you monitor or adjust the positions? So if we start with the trade, suppose I got highest call OI, highest put OI strike.
[17:28] We gave their premium base. Suppose I got credit of 25 points. Now I have to track two things. How this combined premium is behaving. So at some point I have to put a stop loss. So if the 25 is 50, I will exit both the legs. Second thing, I will also closely monitoring the strikes where this OI built up. So if there is an unwinding start, then I will exit the position.
[17:54] Now when will the unwindings come? When the price will either test or breach that level. So there we have to see the price action as well. So if we get some reversal candle from that side and OID is increasing, that will indicate that this level might not be breached.
[18:12] And when you say reversal candle, you mean to say that reversal is coming after testing that level? So suppose, let's take for example, there was one expiry where we were sensatexing and
[18:27] somewhere 74000 was the highest quality. Market was moving at a speed, it tested the level and there a hammer candle was made on a 10 minute time frame. Now that was the indication that now the possibility of price is reversed.
[18:42] And that candle size was only I will say 75 points. So, this is also indicating that market will remain in range, that level will not breach. Second thing, from there you can also get reversal trade, a bearish trade.
[18:57] Okay, that would be the another system we can deploy on the OI data. Okay. So, A. Sir, now I want to know from you that how do you use OI? Tell us a little about this and what strategy can be used to take advantage of this data set?
[19:11] So, to trade OI data, I don't track OI minute to minute. generally I test day 1 data on a non-expiring day that say first strategy which I use
[19:24] that would be the finding direction from the OI data now suppose put is heavy writing market is going up and if unwinding comes in call that is the strong signal that market can be bullish
[19:37] so at that point in time I might deploy a bullish strategy so this would be the first strategy which helps me in finding the direction. So you are saying that on one side addition is happening and on the other side unwinding is happening.
[19:52] In that case you are saying that if it is happening in the case of put then you will do it and vice versa. Sir, I am interrupting you with one question that what you are saying that addition and unwinding,
[20:04] is there any percentage or number that you see that how much unwinding is happening, how much addition is happening? So here I look at the cumulative strikes. Now suppose on any day, put strike has heavy writing, say cumulative 2-3 strikes, so closer strike.
[20:23] Now after combining 2-3 strikes, there is a heavy writing say 10 lakhs, 15 lakhs, even more than that contracts. And unwinding has also happened. So here there will be no percentage benchmark because in absolute number, OI keep on changing.
[20:37] When you are close to expiry, the OI will increase a lot in absolute terms. And when expiry is far, the OI number will be less which is gradually built. So I look at the cumulative OI data, say in 2-3 strikes, there is a good build-up.
[20:52] Are you talking about the cumulative OI strikes or in what way are you deciding the strikes? So I am not talking about only max OI strikes. I am talking about cumulatively closer to 2-3 strikes.
[21:05] suppose market is at 24000 23,700 23,800 23,900, 24000 if there is a lot of
[21:17] OI build up in these 3-4 sites that is indication that here decent amount of OI build up has happened which you will get in form of OI bar chart at the terminal of grow second thing, if OI
[21:30] unwinding has happened in 23,900, 24000 strikes. That will indicate that call writers are also trapped. Put writers are comfortable Call writers are fearful That is the fuel for the market next moment Okay And sir understood You mean you are tracking the strikes near the ATM and you are guessing from them that where is the
[21:52] unwinding happening and where is your addition happening. Now let's take an example that you saw that the puts are being addition and the calls are being unwinding. That is, the sellers
[22:04] are selling the puts thinking that you know the market is going to be ऊपर रहने वाले हैं और जो call जिन्होंने बेची हुई थी उनको losses दिख रहे हैं तो वो काट पे जा रहे हैं अब हमें ये indication तो मिल गया मतलब एक आपको bullish signal मिल गया
[22:16] अब ये trigger का ये signal का हम फाइदा कैसे उठाएंगे किस type की strategy बनाएंगे और कैसे इसको trade करेंगे so अब obviously day end पे मुझे पता चला है
[22:28] that ऐसे हुआ है day is already over मैं action next day ले पाँगा अच्छा यहाँ हम position की बात थे यह position की बात थे so मैं next day even I check that the price is moving in same direction अब पता चला OI built up बन गया
[22:42] next day price gap down हो गया so जो अगले दिन writers say they are trapped now so market can go reverse also So next day also we should get the same confirmation price is moving in that direction अब यहाँ पे सबसे important question आता है
[22:55] मैं strategy क्या लूँगा and what mistake people make is that they take OI data as a holy grail it's another set of data point this can also go wrong इसे हमें सिर्फ confirmation tool की तरह लेना है
[23:08] it must confirm the price action also next day's OI data also अब definitely people will prefer अगर इतना accurate data है let's buy a call, let's sell a quote but I always go with
[23:20] strategy selection मेरा first criteria होता है cost of going down अब जो भी strategy मैं लूँगा, मैं कितना cost pay करूँगा, मैं अगर गलत गया, मुझे max loss कितना होगा
[23:32] that's the first consideration, so I generally prefer either spreads or the butterfly strategy and next day I'll take that positional trade for playing through the expiry आप कह रहोगी, मतलब instead of
[23:46] naked selling या naked call buying better है कि spreads में ये काम करा जाएं ठीक है पहले तो एक थोड़ा सा जो लोग options में नहीं हैं बता दो spread क्या होता है
[23:58] and butterfly क्या होती है और इनको आप किस परीके से trade करते हो so मैं example से start करूँगा suppose market 24,000 है आपको bullish view लेना है so what you will do, you will buy a call
[24:10] अब call जब हम buy करते है your premium suppose you pay 200 points अब बहुत सल रहा है premiums are very high so आपको 200 point ATM पे premium है आपका cost of going wrong here is
[24:24] 13,000 rupees that is 65 multiplied by 200 because एक चीज़ मैंने observe किये जब call buy करते हैं हम लोग stop loss ऐसा कोई चीज़ लोग लगाते नहीं है so जो premium है वो ultimately with hope
[24:37] अब 200 का premium 150 हुआ they'll hold it with the hope that अब जैसे ही 200 होगा हम लोग exit करेंगे तो जब आप option buy करता है retail I assume वो पूरा loss होने वाला है अगर view correct नहीं करें तो
[24:49] now what what we can do here is say I'm paying 200 rupees premium at 24,000 and with that if I sell 24,200 call for 100 rupees my net debit now is 100 points
[25:03] so मैंने जो 13,000 का loss था वो 6,500 पे लाके रखती है अब यहाँ पे मेरा obviously profit भी cap हो जाएगा upside पे risk reward would be 1 is to 1 now butterfly strategy में हम लोग क्या करते हैं
[25:17] यह जो spread है उसमें एक और extra call बेचते हैं at 24200 and उससे hedge करते हैं by buying 24400 call so what I have done I have bought one call 24000 sold two calls at 24200 and bought one more call at 24400
[25:33] to hedge this naked extra call sell तो अब ये butterfly strategy बन जया अब यहाँ पे मेरा debit होगा as compared to the spread जो 100 points है will come down to almost 30 points
[25:45] right depending on the distance आप कितना रखते हो but assume करते 30 point का debit आ गया so my max loss now capped at 30 point so this is my cost of going down अगर मेरा view गलत गया अगर आपका प्रदाव बी हो गया
[25:58] मैं max loss करूँगा only 30 points ठीक है यह आप जो बटरफ्लाइस भी बना रहे हो तो यह आप डिरेक्शनल बटरफ्लाइस बना रहे हो मतलब they can be neutral also but आप एक bias बना के उपर की बटरफ्लाइ या नीचे की बटरफ्लाइ बना रहे हो
[26:16] ठीक है, योगेट सर, जैसे लिट से अभी हम बात कर रहे थे कि आप ओवरनाइट, दे एंड पे आपने देखा कि आज किस तरीके का OI Edition Unwinding हो गया है, आपने व्यू बना लिया, अगले दिन मार्केट आपके फेवर में, जो आपका व्यू था, उसके अकॉर्डिंग खुली,
[26:46] तो आप यहाँ पे 24,000 की call बाय कर लेते हो और 24, 100, 150 उपर कहीं पे बेचते हो तो depending on आप कितना risk लेना चाते हो और butterfly भी सर कुछ इस परी के सी आप बनाते हो मतलब 24,000 की बाय करी, 100 की बेची, 200 की फिस्से बाय कर ले
[27:02] तो ये तो जैसे एक overnight हमारा signal हो गया क्या ऐसा भी होता है कि fresh signals during the day, intraday मिलते हैं आपको especially expiry day पे
[27:15] so yes expiry day पे I take one more signal जो मैं काफी take करता हूँ that is the reversal signals अब suppose nifty का range हमें मिला है 23,500 and 24,000
[27:29] that means 24,000 के call पे high call writing है and 23,500 के put पे highest put writing है तो एक range मिल गया हमें for the expiry अब जब market 24,000 level test करेगा
[27:42] and वहाँ से reverse होने लगेगा अब logic क्या है यहाँ पे that expiry day पे sellers काफी powerful होते है normally so अगर 24,000 level पे highest call writing है and वो level test होता है
[27:55] obviously seller will try to defend that level by selling more, by you know trying to you know arrest the rise there, okay अब अगर वहाँ पे reversal मिल रहा है that means what, मैं बहुत
[28:08] close हूँ market top के for that day, and कई बार हमने देखा है that highest call writing, quote writing जहाँ पे होता है and if that is also round number तो वहाँ से reversal आने का
[28:20] probability high होता है, and with that single candle, suppose hammer बन गया, एक bearish angle thing बन गया candle, that will give me a small stop loss entry, so वहाँ से मैं put butterfly ले लूगा और sir put butterfly जो बनती है, यह आपका जैसे debit में बनती होगी
[28:37] तो debit, let's say आपका 50 point की nifty की butterfly है 50 point का मतलब है, जैसे 24,000, 24,000 50 की आपने 24,000 की call buy करी, 24,000 50 की 2 बेची
[28:50] और 24,100 की फिर से 1 buy कर ली, तो यह एक आपकी butterfly हो गई तो इसमें कुछ जेट से देना पड़ा आपको पांच रुपे देने पड़े लेट से तो इसमें सर stop loss किस करीगे से लगाते हो लेवल बेस stop loss लगाते हो आप
[29:02] या किसी और मतलब OI पे लगाते हो या premium पे लगाते हो how do you decide कि exit कब करना है so on a expiry day when we trade these butterflies
[29:14] I always keep stop loss on the underlying So, now suppose 24,000 पे market ने test किया, market made a high of 24,040 Okay Hammer candle बनाए, जो मुझे
[29:27] entry मिला 23,980 पे So, मैं 23,980 पे मैं जब butterfly बनाओंगा, say मैंने 23,950 का put buy किया 23,850 का 2 बेचे and 23,750 का एक buy कर लिया
[29:39] Now, this is a put butterfly मेरा view bearish है, अब इसका stop loss obviously मुझे upside लगाना होगा and वो hammer candle का high so if that high is 24,040 तो stop loss 24,045 पे लगाओंगा
[29:52] जैसे ही वो level cross होगा I'll exit all the 3 legs अब यहाँ पे benefit क्या होगा अगर मेरा original debit is 20 points and जब मेरा stop loss होगा my loss won't be full 20 points
[30:04] because वो तो expiry पे होने वाला है यहाँ पे मेरा loss होगा say 10.12 point so अब जो original debit भी pay करते हो और उस पे अगर आप stop loss लगाते हो based on underlying your risk would be only 50 to 60% of your original debit
[30:18] इसका मतलब यह है अगर मैंने debit 30 point pay किया है मेरा risk उसमें अगर मैं stop loss execute कर पाता हूँ would be 15 to 18 points only ओके ठीक है
[30:33] so as per you किसी को अगर इस टाइट की strategy follow भी करनी है trades लेने भी है तो best is की spread से जाओ ना की जो लोग typically करते हैं
[30:45] कि आप खाली call बेच देते हैं या खाली put buy कर लेते हैं the reversals and all are very sharp and it is better की आप position hold करो spreads के अंदर sir expiry day पे एक
[30:58] मेरा question और है की you know markets का morning में behavior different होता है and afternoon में दोस्त जादा reactive होता है so क्या ONA what you see during the morning and how it
[31:10] behaves in the after normal, उसने फरक होता है, yes उस पे काफी फरक होता है कई बार, so what I do, I look at the holistic picture as a market क्या कर रहा है, important levels क्या है, and साथने OI किस direction में जा रहा है, so there is a possibility that market एक level test करके फिर वहाँ से OI signal भी change होने लगेगा, call writing बढ़ जाएगा, put writing कम हो जाएगा, या तो put में unwinding आना साथ हो जाएग
[31:40] normally मैं intraday OI उतना trade नहीं करता हूँ on a non-expiry day expiry date I keep on tracking the OI for the highest OI strike and overall cumulative close to ATM strikes का
[31:52] क्या behavior है so I think sir afternoon में तो ऐसा भी होता होगा कि क्योंकि premiums जो out of the money strikes में होते हैं वो आपके खतम होने लग जाते हैं
[32:04] so you know you have to move closer to ATM so आपका OI concentrate होने लग जाता है कुछ strikes के ऊपर तो अगर afternoon में move आ रहा है और यहाँ पे unwinding हो रही है
[32:16] तो unwinding भी बहुत quick होती होगी क्योंकि nifty में अगर premium ही 10 रुपे है किसी strike पे तो उसमें आप कितना stop loss रख लोगे है कितना loss ले लोगे so unwinding quick होती होगी in case of a sharp move तो बहुत अच्छा indication वहाँ पे मिलता होगा आपको
[32:29] yes so expiry date signal powerful one is your reversal from the highest OI strike because agar market wo direction mein nahi jaa raha hai If sellers are winning then
[32:43] obviously market wahan se reverse hoke kahin aur bundle ho jayega. Ab suppose ab kahi baar ho hai sensei expiry nahi. That we start a butterfly with 30-40 point debit and market agar center pe aake close ho jaye because market ko sir 2-3 jante nikalne hai. And
[32:59] If the center bracket closes, your risk reward could be much higher, even 1 is to 3, 1 is to 5 risk reward ratio. So, yes, if you catch the signal correctly, it is very rewarding. Second thing here is that you have to continuously watch OI.
[33:16] And obviously, OI data is not live data, it is a little delayed. But what is the benefit of butterfly strategy? You enter delayed too. So objective kya hota hai, aapke 10 ke andar market 8 ke ek baar stable ho jaye.
[33:30] It will start giving you profit. So utna timing may be matter nahi karta, agar suppose 24,000 pe mujhe signal mila. Main 23,975 pe enter karu, 950 pe enter karu, that is okay.
[33:43] Few points won't matter, but wo option selling me kaafi matter karta hai. Because butterfly is a spread, aur market kaha aake settle hoga, that will give you the money. So, here timing may not be that essential, even if you get a little late signal, I am good to go here.
[33:58] Yogesh sir, you are a systematic trader and I am also a systematic trader. We talk a lot about rule-based trading. This whole concept, you explain a little that how it can be systematized or rule-based,
[34:11] so that your discretion gets a little less. See, Arjun, whatever strategy you are making, it has three important ingredients. First, how will you find your direction if you are trading in direction strategy?
[34:27] And when will you decide that the market is non-direction when you are doing non-direction strategy? So, here, say I am keeping OI data for finding the direction, then obviously second step will come. What will be my strategy? Strategy selection, that will be the second step.
[34:42] and I told you with logic that my strategy selection is butterfly queue because that suits my psychology. Now that may not be suitable for others. So for someone that strategy could be option selling
[34:56] and if someone is very good with risk management, he can also trade the naked selling also, right? So I told you the logic of strategy selection. You can trade based on your risk appetite.
[35:10] Third thing comes very important. this is the trade management. Now here we have to decide some things. First thing would be how much size we would be trading. What will be our stop loss?
[35:22] How we are going to trail our stop loss? And at what target we are going to book profits? Because see option selling is not going to give you a 1 is to 3, 1 is to 5 risk reward ratio. Because when we sell premium, there
[35:35] is a limitation of risk reward. Option buying will give you a good but it is important to put stop loss there and trailing is very important. So in butterfly also I go with the risk reward based method.
[35:49] If my risk is 20 points, I will keep on booking something. I will book more at 40 points and I will keep on trailing that way. So after entering in trade, the objective is that how I reduce the cost of going wrong.
[36:02] come karte jaan. And that's how the entire process will work from trade selection to your trade management. Yohe sir, aap mein yeh pura process bata diya hame and
[36:14] you have explained the entire concept of using OI on expiry days and also overnight isko kaise interpret karna hai. Now sir, yeh humne theory bhot saari discuss kari hai. Ab kuch
[36:26] visually charts pe bhi dikha doge na to mere liye aur jo bhi viewers hain, unke liye understanding bhot better ho jayegi. Yes, sure, why not? So, I share few real trades, which I have taken in real past with logic
[36:39] and how they worked out, that we are going to discuss now. So, Arjun, we discussed three methods. One was finding the trend. Second, we discussed about the reversal trades. And third, we discussed about the expiry day range selection.
[36:53] Right? So, I give an example of all three, how we select this trade and how we trade from it. So, this is the first example. a real current market fall after the market recovery
[37:05] first recovery on a day we can see the positive candle put side we can see copy writing in close expiry and call side writing is quite far
[37:17] so that is indicating that market is building a bullish momentum second day when we after we entered we also got confirmation from OI data so here we are getting two signals on this day
[37:29] put side copy writing which we can see through red bars. Okay. And green bar is negative. That means call side unwinding is happening. Okay. So, what you were talking about the previous day, we saw that OI is high in puts at night.
[37:43] Yes. And you know, the next day morning, your signal was confirmed that unwinding is also happening and addition is also happening. Correct. Okay. And luckily, next day was the expiry date.
[37:56] And we can see here, the market had made a very big green candle. Okay. so how I played that I bought a call of 22750 23050 2 lot of 2 lot and 23250
[38:09] 1 lot of 2 lot so debit was 35 now this 35 debit went to 220 means your loss can't be more than 35 rupees whatever happens in the market and luckily market closed
[38:24] at the center almost that center strike and this premium went to 3522 Now, not necessary we should capture the whole but because we have a method of booking partially
[38:38] at every milestone so on an average we can achieve a 1 is to 3 risk reward ratio in that. Okay. So, now let's understand the second signal which is reversal signal.
[38:50] Now suppose on any site highest call writing or put writing will work as a support and we can see in this example 23000 has highest put writing. So we will assume support until it is not breached.
[39:03] Obviously, after this we need a signal from market. Market came to that level and we can see a hammer candle there. What is the meaning of reversal candle? Market tested 23000 level and is taking reversal from there.
[39:18] The wick was made below and after that the candle closed above. So that's a clear reversal candle at the major support level. level and we can see here market was almost 500 point rise. So this is more of a game of
[39:34] your risk reward ratio rather than the success rate. Now let's take third example which can be our expiry day strategy. Now suppose on expiry day we find out that where is the highest call writing,
[39:47] highest put writing around 10-10.30. So on this day we can see 23200 was the highest call writing and 22500 was the highest put writing.
[39:59] Now if we sell these two strikes, combined premium was 25 on this day, and if the market doesn't breach any level, we can earn this 25 points. Now obviously this can't be traded as it is,
[40:11] we have to put a stop loss somewhere, either we can keep stop loss on the combined premium, or individual legs, or if any of the two strikes get tested, we can exit that trade.
[40:23] That's how this is going to work. Okay, so the original idea that we were talking about is that the max is there, decide the call, put the put and put the strangle on it. Sir, does it also happen that when you put the strangle and the strangle's strikes are far,
[40:39] then will you wait for the market to go to that strike because by then the premium might increase a lot and the loss might increase a lot. So how do you manage that risk? So here I apply a stop loss on combined premium.
[40:52] If I get a credit of 25 points, I'll keep a stop loss at somewhere around 40 to 50 points. So, I put a stop loss on combined premium. So, even if that strike test doesn't happen and if my premium breaches my stop loss, I'll exit that trade.
[41:06] I think a very important point for everyone to follow is that if you are taking a trade on the basis of OI, then that doesn't mean that you can avoid stop loss. Exactly. Stop loss has to be there because OI can be wrong or things may not work according to you.
[41:21] Yogi sir, you have told us a lot of things that we have to do. Now tell us some such things that we don't have to do. And where and how OI fails and how to spot it. So here, some of the mistakes we do as a retail trader.
[41:35] The first mistake is to treat OI data as a holy grail. It's just another data point. And with this, we have to match our price action with our psychology. So this could be a good confirmation tool and it's not a holy grail system.
[41:50] second thing even up why data use career of course top loss Laganah is much in fact a bar up co-having for trading the KK market next day gap down be hostess so blindly is based a trade
[42:03] Kanna why is not right so again a co-edit or I question trade cut down on the basis of why data it has to be hatched right and specially on expiry day up a good trade career using why data why data
[42:16] on the expiry date changes many times on a specific day. You will see many times, market is very volatile. In a day, OI data will change 5 times. So, it is very important for you to apply stop loss. So, I use the combined premium as a stop loss.
[42:28] You are doing single trade, straddle trade, even direction trade. You keep stop loss in the system. Now, one more thing that you should follow, that is the price and commission. You got OI data on a particular day.
[42:40] Next day's price action should match that OI data. Now, if this doesn't happen, there is a put side writing in OI and next day market is going down and you are doing bullish trade. So, price confirmation is very important with OI data.
[42:53] Yogesh sir, I think it was a very knowledgeable session. So, Yogesh sir, thank you so much for joining us. You gave us your time, shared your experience and I am sure these things will be valuable to people.
[43:05] And hope to see you again sometime. Thank you again. Thank you so much. In this video, we will discuss the following.