[00:01] Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the 4X first. Today we're going to talk about the U.S. Dollar Currency Index, one of the most riveting topics for everyone here. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a
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[00:26] Let's go ahead and jump in. So, my views on the dollar remain unchanged. I would be willing to pivot my view if the Fed is unwilling to raise rates.
[00:38] However, I think that the Fed will raise rates again before the end of the year. I do. And I think there's a chance they might do it as early as September.
[00:50] And that's not really a contrarian view at this point for the Fed to raise rates. I mean, as of right now, again, I'm going to be traveling for the next, like, week and a half or so. It's currently September 9th.
[01:02] You're probably watching this video, like, many, many days from now on the public channel. But the odds as of September 9th for a rate hiker, 60%. If the Fed were to follow through with this and actually raise rates,
[01:19] I think you're going to see the dollar bounce and head back up. Now, if you zoom in to the moves by the dollar over the last couple of lows that have formed, you'll see there's a pattern, right?
[01:31] It sets a low, it rallies, it comes back down, and then goes higher. Okay, again, look. Sets a low, rallies, comes back down, and then goes higher. Same thing, right? Comes down rallies back down higher in my opinion this is what I think is going on By the time you watching this video maybe the dollar is no longer at 98
[01:58] I don't know what it's going to be by the time I release the video, but I'm trying to just pre-record a few videos just so there's something that I'm putting out while I'm traveling. And things like the dollar don't tend to be nearly as volatile as other assets, like Bitcoin,
[02:12] because Bitcoin's moving very quickly. sometimes, and so it's harder to make videos on it when I'm going to be gone. So, the dollar, the path, to me, is to head back up, okay? We've talked about this before. If you look
[02:29] at the dollar during Trump's first term and his second term, it's basically the same path so far, right? Down for the first year, consolidate, and then start heading back up, and we also had a drop in the dollar around this time during Trump's first term, and you can see
[02:44] that it was only, we're on day 597, indexed to win the new administration. In 2018, the dollar started going up on day 608.
[02:57] And it went up into the end of the year. I think the same thing's going to happen. Now, if you were to overlay interest rates onto the chart for the dollar, right,
[03:11] What you'll notice, let me zoom out here, what you'll notice in 2018, late 2018, we also got a rate hike or two.
[03:24] But it was different because we were in the middle of a rate hiking cycle. But still, the dollar was going up. What's more accurate, in my opinion, to compare to is not 2018 in this case, but to go back in time and find a rate hiking cycle followed by a pause followed by a cutting cycle and then what happened when interest rates went back up That what
[03:49] you should look at, not 2018. So the 1990s is our example. Look at what happened. We had the rate hiking cycle. We had the rate cutting cycle. That fund rate
[04:05] remains constant. And then we got a rate hike, and you can see on that rate hike, and right before the rate hike occurred, the dollar started to explode higher. You see that? It was at like 90.91 just before the rate hike, and about
[04:21] a month or so after the rate hike, it was all the way up at 97. And it actually continued to go up until the Fed cut rates again. So I think the most likely
[04:34] pass for the dollar is what I'm about to draw. Something like this. It finds a low. Sorry, need to do the arm. It finds a low. It rallies, comes back down, something like
[04:53] this, but then eventually heads back up here. And then from there, you might see it get rejected again. Something like that is what I think will play out for the dollar.
[05:07] Now, if the dollar were to take out all these lows, then I might have to reassess. This pattern does somewhat look like the Bitcoin dominance pattern to me from the prior cycle,
[05:22] right So if you go look at Bitcoin you like why is he always working Bitcoin dominance But if you look at Bitcoin dominance in you know over here there was a period where you had three lower lows and then you had a fourth slightly lower low and then we were back in business
[05:39] the reason I don't think this is what's going to happen and that I think it'll be a higher low instead is because this included stablecoins and if you exclude stablecoins
[05:51] from the Bitcoin dominance chart which I think is a relevant exercise to do in order to truly measure like you know what it is we're actually trying to measure you'll see that it actually looks completely different right
[06:05] so when you look at it like this you'll see that it was a higher low consolidate and move up so I think the dollar will find a low soon and then it will move up into the rate hike and then
[06:19] likely continue to move up until the Fed cuts rates again and what that means is that the dollar is likely going to come back up to this trend line so it'll probably tag it, you know, maybe in 2027 or 2028, around like 104, 104, 105, things about
[06:39] right. So that's what I would look for for the dollar. And gold is already sniffing out this weakness, right? Gold's already going down right now to try to find a load, and maybe even a higher load to print. And I think the reason gold has been struggling the last
[06:54] few weeks is because it knows that this rise in the dollar is about to start. So that's my view on the dollar. If you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again check out the sale on ITC premium
[07:09] at intothecryptoverse.com. Would love to see you guys at the first investing through the cycles conference taking place in Miami the week the weekend of November 21st. I will see you guys hopefully then. Bye.