---
title: 'Want to invest in China’s stock market? Know this first. | Weijian Shan | Big Think'
source: 'https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLWOu0c0lHw'
video_id: 'gLWOu0c0lHw'
date: 2026-09-15
duration_sec: 272
channel: 'Big Think'
---

# Want to invest in China’s stock market? Know this first. | Weijian Shan | Big Think

> Source: [Want to invest in China’s stock market? Know this first. | Weijian Shan | Big Think](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLWOu0c0lHw)

## Summary

This video explains why China's economic growth does not translate into stock market profitability, highlighting the disconnect between GDP expansion and investor returns. The speaker uses historical data and personal anecdotes to illustrate the risks of investing in Chinese markets based solely on economic size.

### Key Points

- **China's Economic Relevance** [00:00] — Ten years ago, China's economy mattered little to American consumers and markets, but now events like Apple's announcement can cause a 10% stock drop and a 3% broad market decline.
- **The Sneeze-Cough Analogy** [00:25] — The old saying 'when America coughs, the rest of the world catches cold' has evolved; today, when China sneezes, the rest of the world at least coughs, emphasizing China's global impact.
- **Importance of Understanding China** [00:44] — Understanding China's recent history, as explained in the book 'Out of the Gobi', is crucial for investors; entering a market without knowledge is risky.
- **The Growth Paradox** [01:30] — China's economy grew 30 times in nominal terms over 27 years (since 1992), yet an investor who held Chinese stocks from the start would have lost money, showing no correlation between growth and returns.
- **The Exception to the Rule** [02:35] — Over 20 years, most countries show a positive correlation between economic growth and stock market performance, but China is a single exception to this pattern.
- **Investor Misconceptions** [03:08] — Investors often allocate capital to China based on its GDP size (e.g., 30% for the second-largest economy), but the speaker warns that historical stock returns have been negative.
- **Why Returns Are Negative** [03:50] — China's growth model is investment-driven; while earnings grow, the capital base grows faster, causing return on equity (ROE) to fall, leading to poor stock performance.
- **The Danger of Ignoring ROE** [04:04] — Investing purely in economic growth without understanding ROE and overcapacity can lead to mistakes; distinguishing between a bad economy with overcapacity and a good growing economy is essential.

### Conclusion

China's economic growth does not guarantee stock market profits due to its investment-heavy model and falling ROE. Investors must look beyond GDP and understand underlying capital efficiency to avoid losses.

## Transcript

Ten years ago, I would say the Chinese economy didn't really matter to American consumers
and to American market. But as you saw, when Apple made this announcement, then their stock dropped 10%. The broad market came down about 3%.
There used to be a saying in the 1980s that when America coughs, the rest of the world catches cold. And today it seems to me that when China sneezes, then the rest of the world at least coughs.
So it's relevant and it's important, and therefore it's important to understand it. I think understanding its most recent history, as I explained in my book, Out of the Gobi,
will be useful. You wouldn want to get into a market without knowing anything about it What is the most deceiving thing about China is that growth doesn necessarily translate into profitability If you look at the Chinese stock market which started around 1992 so by now we talking about 27 years right
And in that 27 years, China's economy has grown, can you guess by how much?
It has grown by 30 times in nominal terms, 30 times in 27 years. If you had invested in China's stock market from the very beginning, 1992,
and you have held your investment for all these years, never got out, during which the economy has grown by 30 times how much money do you think you will have made as an investor
You will have lost money. People will ask why that is the case. Now there is not a strong correlation between the stock market and economic performance
at any given moment. However, over a long period of time, let's say 20 years, in every country there is positive correlation between economic growth and stock market performance. And China is a single
exception. I've heard some investors telling me, we're in the investment business, we are in in private equity business, so we have many investors who trust us with their money to
invest in Asia, particularly in China. They say, well, China now is second largest economy in the world America is the largest and I allocate 40 of my capital to America I should allocate at least 30 to China just by the sheer size of the economy And I will tell them the story about how China has grown in the past 20 years how the
stock market would actually give them a negative return. And then you look into the question, why that is the case. It has to do with China's economic growth model driven so much by investments.
And therefore, yes, earnings have been growing in aggregate in China. But the capital base with which you produce the earnings has been growing even faster because China has invested so much.
And therefore, ROE, or return on capital, may be falling. If you don't understand it, if you invest just in economic growth, you don't understand
that there's a bad economy with a lot of overcapacity and there's a good economy which is actually growing, then you're bound to make mistakes.