[00:00] Welcome to the market snapshot for today. So it's all red in the markets and I think most of what we have assumed or maybe what our data have suggested about the
[00:15] market the market has been doing pretty much that. It isn't that we were anticipating the market or you know we were trying to be right in the market for sure that is the last thing which I would want but some of you know data
[00:29] points were not in favor of the rise of the indian markets or the u.s markets and that is exactly how you know the markets have been doing nifty 50 was down by almost 1.19 percent close at 23 118 nifty
[00:45] 500 at 22 477 was down by almost 1.7 percent nasdaq 100 was down by 0.65 percent at 28 937 and s&p
[00:57] 500 7585 most of you all might have heard of this quote may be heard read whatever it is that cash to is a position in the markets and I think very
[01:14] strongly from last 15 days I have been telling about both the markets that you should be in cash and see the benefit of being in cash would have been you know you would have cut down your drawdown by huge margins.
[01:29] And my personal experience of last five years in the market is it is not the exceptional traders who make money or who make alpha in the market. It is people who very much understand when to be in the markets and when not to be in the markets.
[01:48] If you can just manage yourself or maybe understand the structure of the market and make a system around when to be in the market and when not to be in the market. Trust me, you will outperform most of the mutual funds or index around the globe.
[02:06] I'm not telling you that you will become a Mark Minervini or maybe you will become a Paul Trudeau Jones. But I promise you, if you just have a framework to know when to be in the market and when not to be in the market,
[02:19] It's this simple system can help you to outperform most of the mutual funds, index funds in the market. This is lefty 500.
[02:33] 61 advances to 439 declines. Glad that we were not waiting for this to happen, right? I mean, most of us would have been out of this market. I mean literally do I literally need to talk anything about what the 61 advances against 439 decline means
[02:51] it's brutal right it cannot be expressed in words we have zero highs against 500 new lows I mean I really don't know what to talk about these but the good part is I had spoken enough in last I think almost a month or so
[03:07] I have been telling my commentaries daily how the market is behaving, what the market is subject to do. And see, I'm not happy about that.
[03:19] You know, whatever I thought, whatever my data points said, the markets have behaved exactly. But the thing is, you know, I think a lot of my drawdowns have been cut down, which is something, you know,
[03:31] which makes me a little happy about this particular situation. and the breadth I mean it is deteriorating as if like there are no literally no buyers in the market above 20 MA 75 stocks above 50 ma 126 stocks and above 200 ma 226 stocks this is the chart if you remember yesterday i told you this was the zone around
[03:53] which you know last time you know this rally began somewhere you know almost next period from almost 23 000 levels to 24 800 right and yesterday i told you i am not looking at this technical i
[04:08] don't think it will work it is not that it was a tested zone rise the price never came at this zone but my entire thesis was around that every data point was so weak that i did not see any reason
[04:22] for a rise from here and that is the reason i was very very sure that i'm not going to go long on nifty same is the case with nifty 500 i set the exact point here too like this zone had worked
[04:35] earlier technically but I was not looking to go long on this again the same thing the data points were not supportive of that zone I mean the participation the breadth were so poor I mean
[04:48] honestly like I think at this point of time the only marking I do is here is weak right maybe you know it was so poor that maybe weak was a very weak word for this I mean we literally
[05:03] need some some stronger words to specify how weak the markets were so nifty 50 is bearish participation is weak and the breadth is weak nifty 500 is bearish participation is weak and
[05:16] breadth is weak at this point of time i would say if at all you have still not moved in cash you should move in cash uh because a lot of time people feel okay i have already lost my 50
[05:29] 70% what more I can lose you can lose your 100% I mean that is how the markets are you can lose your 100% and the problem with that recovery would be see you don't make money on zero investments
[05:41] right you need to have something only when you invest something you can have you can expect some return but if you are planning that without investment you'll get some sort of returns that won't happen so if you are even left with a 30% 40% 50% in your account you have not taken that
[05:58] decision take that today so let's assume the market reverses today I mean today itself the market reverses you will end up losing again right that's correct but
[06:11] just imagine if it continues to go down I mean literally your 30-40% will go to zero and if it reverses it will give you enough opportunities because this will not be a V shaped recovery I don't look at it that way the breath continues to
[06:26] be extremely poor extremely poor there are global factors which are not inclined with the India's rise dollar is not helping EELS are not helping FII's keep putting money out so I mean there needs to be something concrete you know
[06:40] which will help to this rise this will not happen immediately trust me on that let's come to the US market this is S&P 500 same story I have been telling I mean I think till last week of August I think not last I think till 20th August I
[06:59] was saying that this is looking volatile this is looking volatile post 20th of August I started saying this is looking bearish to me now right and I still hold on to that view that markets in the US are looking bearish to me and they
[07:15] possess certain amount of volatility but in today's case bearishness is has a a higher component than just being volatile in the US markets and the advances were this is a S 500 advances were 159 to bit lines of 341 new highs of 19 to new lows of 481
[07:35] don't be influenced by this 19 because yesterday I think it was adding it was 4 or 5 or something today it has jumped to 19 but that's volatility nothing more than that nothing more than that and just look at the breadth so
[07:51] So again it is deteriorating every day. Every day it is deteriorating. Above 20 MA 117 stocks. Above 50 MA 177 stocks. Above 200 MA 263 stocks. So let's compare this with the Indian markets.
[08:08] So we have above 20 MA 75 stocks. And here 1 MA 17 stocks. But if you compare the previous session, I think the numbers in Indian markets were exactly the same.
[08:22] So, can it replicate? Does it come with certainty? No, definitely it does not come with certainty. But all the data points are in sync that this will also deteriorate very, very swiftly.
[08:35] So, again I will say cash should be our position even in the US market. If the market reverse is good for us. So, like I have been saying, if you ask me the structure of this chart,
[08:47] this is bullish to sideways, right? This is nowhere a negative chart to me at least. The way I look at charts, this is not a negative chart to me. It is bullish towards sideways.
[09:00] Same is the case with S&P 500. I would say this is a slightly more bullish than sideways kind of a chart. And Russell 2000 is going downhill. So, no comments here.
[09:12] So, this is already gone for me. I think it has been since June or something. I have been saying that I am not even looking for trades at SL2000. I think this is what you should be looking at very carefully, right?
[09:24] Everything is in red. I mean, there are no glimpses of any sort of brain. And that is the reason I am telling that even for the US market, even if the press participation looks better than Indian markets,
[09:39] see, you should not be waiting for that day when entire thing collapses and then you are looking for that panic. break out right I mean for the US market too you should be in cash if markets
[09:52] sentiments change get in again so this is now 500 is bearish participation is weak breath is weak S&P 500 is bearish participation is weak breath is weak Russell 2000 bearish participation is weak and breath is weak so this we have
[10:07] completely spoken with regards to Indian and the US market now why I have been emphasizing that we should be in cash let's look at this 4.99 yesterday I think it made a high of
[10:22] 5.06 right money is flowing here you need to understand the money is flowing in here that is causing the rise to the yield you and me are not putting in money into the yields that it is
[10:36] rising it is institutions banks central governments central banks which are putting in money If yields were not enough dollars have started rising At 99 it has a reclaim with 50 EMA Things are looking terrible for equities VIX at 17 I think it is still lagging It should have been above 20 Bitcoin has also fallen which I keep telling you it is the most sensitive indicator to understand what is the risk appetite of the investors Bitcoin has gone down almost 3300 3300 3500 points Gold is hovering at around those levels of 42 150 to 4350 but again it is also
[11:20] bearish at this point of time. Let's look at the chart like I said dollar has reclaimed its 50 EMA. Can it continue to rise? It may, I mean the way it is, it may.
[11:33] I mean I don't want to again predict anything but what I'm feeling right at this point of time dollar might continue to raise Bitcoin if you ask me
[11:45] structurally it's a strong looking bullish chart I will wait for 50 EMA to you know if closes below 50 EMA I'll turn my sentiments being bearish on this but at
[11:59] this point of timing it is a positive looking chart every position which I am trying to build in Bitcoin is on the long side at least from my perspective and this is gold I think it has turned bearish for me honestly I'm not trading
[12:17] I mean putting any looking for any positions in gold at this point of time but if you ask me my biasness would be towards bearish side so what is the take away from today's market I would say don't just study here understand
[12:36] practice that cash is a position it is good to be in cash if you're looking for trades I think you can look into the crypto world Bitcoin can provide you a
[12:48] good opportunity both on the long side on short side and there are ways where in you you can have both the views and maybe basically you can have a neutral go and go long or short I can discuss all this you know going ahead you know
[13:01] if at all you know some responses come in about how to be neutral about you know getting into a trade that I don't have a view and still I want to get into a position that can definitely work I mean that is the same approach you can
[13:14] have about gold as well at this point of time like I have been saying cash should be your position you should give a lot of time building your psychology studying good books about trading investments following good people on youtube i mean see don't get
[13:30] carried away by those clickbaits how made how i made a hundred thousand dollar how i made five thousand dollars in a day all that i mean doesn't help trust me doesn't help trading is i think like i think the general assumption is trading is one of the easiest
[13:46] profession to make money but i'll tell you this is one of the hardest way of making simple money the hardest way of making easy money. It is difficult. It is very, very complicated. It is not about fundamentals and technicals.
[13:59] See, please understand, if it was only restricted to fundamentals and technicals, we have enough smart people around the globe, you know, who would make dozens of money in this market, right? But, I mean, you leave about the globe.
[14:12] I mean, in and around where we live, you know, we would have enough number of smart people who can just master every bit of technical and fundamental analysis and just, you know, win this game over and over again.
[14:26] But is that what is happening? Trading, investing is much more complex than just knowing the technicals and fundamentals. There's a lot of narrative. There are a lot of variables involved in what moves the market.
[14:40] Try to study those things at this point of time instead of, you know, getting into trades and just getting chopped out. So yeah that is what I would say. I hope you all found this useful. Thank you so much and see you next time. Have a good one.