[00:00] Mark how are you feeling about China. Still extremely bullish. I find some of the perspectives today quite bizarre from investors. I thought Rebecca outlined it perfectly. Look we are never going to get the big stimulus from MDRC. It's not their role. I know we had very ramped up expectations. But you know what. After today's disastrous collapse in Chinese stocks the CSI 300 is up 33 percent over the past month. Hang Seng index is up 25 percent over the next month. If that's a really disappointing
[00:30] monthly performance. Give me more disappointing performances. The fact is, just because we didn't get an extra another bazooka of stimulus on the fiscal side today, just because we got only incremental steps, just because we only got, you know, thin details on the guidelines implementers implementing the fiscal side. It doesn't negate. We got a whole suite of packages before the break. That was drove with this momentum. Sure, we got excess speculation over the holidays. Sure, things got carried away. We are talking about the moves last week.
[01:00] being bonkers on the top side. The fact is we still get across every single greater China market. Twenty five percent is the one month return or more than that. That is the minimum expected one month return or what we had. And that is wonderful performance and it's justified. And I expect that
[01:15] overall it's not going to be straight line for me. We're not going to get that again. But to think that this has suddenly peaked or topped out just seems bizarre to me. Yeah. What kind of picture Mark are you building of the fiscal stimulus and how important that's going to be because it seems
[01:27] as if it was very easy to draw lines between the initial announcements and stocks going higher but what it means for the global economy a little harder to pass from some of the commentary that we received over the past couple of weeks I think that right I think that you know some of the numbers being talked about in the fiscal side just seem like crazy You know it would be wonderful for the global economy and for assets they do that But then there going to stimulate a whole other massive bubble again And I think that would be be slightly crazy I expect they made very clear they going to continue to pursue their economic goals I think they maybe going to be more
[02:00] steady on the fiscal side less dramatic as they were across all the market measures last week. But overall they're going to provide support. What does that mean for the global economy. Remember the global economy is doing well. Growth is good. U.S. growth is
[02:12] good. Most the world is growing up fine. Global growth at 3 percent this year. It doesn't need extra stimulus. Are they going to provide much more. No. But does it need it. No. I hear you being extremely bullish mark on China. But look if there is less
[02:26] China stimulus if there is less global capital into China if it is good for the dollar generally it's down a touch now. How bad is that for the euro.
[02:39] But I don't think there is going to be less capital for China. The world is still massively underweight China. I still think there's going to be a reorientation that it's just not going to work at the pace the last month. It's going to be gained of a couple of percent like normal bullish market gains. Normal bull markets might mean a percent a month or so not multiple percent a day. So I
[02:58] don't think that the story of capital going away from China is valid. I think capital still flow to China. I think the dollar overall will probably be softened to year end but in volatile environments not a straight line.