[00:00] I'll read it for the viewers. Markets are all about cycles, the same cycles repeating over and over again. And one big cycle indicator might be flashing a signal right now. It's the copper gold ratio.
[00:13] The copper gold ratio is important because it's a signpost that tells us that where we are in the economic cycle. It has big implications for risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin.
[00:25] And it might be making a big cycle turn. what is the copper gold ratio yeah the copper gold ratio measures the price of copper relative to the price of gold and it's just like when we effectively chart bitcoin against usdt or
[00:41] bitcoin against eth or bitcoin against seoul are you seeing which one is outperforming effectively so ie on that chart i just showed you if i'm to get rid of the ism um what you want to see
[00:53] in this chart effectively is copper is outperforming gold when this is moving up so i.e this window here this window here this window here and what i believe we're going to see will be this window
[01:05] here um so here he shows us this and here he's kindly outlined i didn't have time to do this unfortunately but he's correctly clearly outlined uh these phases so for more than three decades
[01:18] the copper gold ratio has moved in long-term cycles of roughly three to six years we can separate each individual cycle into two phases a rising phase green and a falling phase red so i.e
[01:31] green would be momentum of the ism going up and red would be downturn of it effectively so what does the copper gold ratio mean for risk assets The strongest periods of performance for US stock indices have historically coincided with rising phases in the copper gold ratio and you can see
[01:47] here again as it's done this very nice graphic when the S&P you can see when copper gold ratio spikes up S&P typically rises in those same windows as well even if the copper gold ratio isn't a massive spike.
[02:00] Like here, it's quite a small grind up and to the right. And we saw the same in the S&P. And you can see it here and here. Whereas equity bear markets and extended flat choppy periods
[02:15] almost always coincide with copper-gold ratio falling phases, although a falling phase is not always bad news for stocks. So what we've outlined there is, so again, this period here where you could say the S&P arguably from point A to point B was still rising but copper gold ratio
[02:33] is down is that the copper gold ratio going down isn't always bad for stocks and this current period routine also shows us that because copper gold ratio has been going down what's happened to S&P arguably since well the start of 2022 up and to the right even though we had that bear market
[02:51] kind of just in the front half of it. All of Bitcoin's mania bursts 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020 and 2021 have coincided with rising phases in the copper gold ratio,
[03:07] while all of Bitcoin's bear markets have coincided with the falling phases in the copper gold ratio.