--- title: 'Crypto Alert: Final Stages of Collapse' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=7L9iex68Ewk' video_id: '7L9iex68Ewk' date: 2026-08-05 duration_sec: 633 --- # Crypto Alert: Final Stages of Collapse > Source: [Crypto Alert: Final Stages of Collapse](https://youtube.com/watch?v=7L9iex68Ewk) ## Summary The video discusses the current state of Bitcoin, comparing it to high-flying tech stocks like SpaceX and the Nasdaq. The speaker argues that Bitcoin is at a critical support level (200-week moving average) and represents a better long-term trade than overvalued, high-FDV tech IPOs. He also touches on macroeconomic factors like oil prices, inflation, and the role of the US military in maintaining the current financial system. ### Key Points - **Bitcoin at 200-week MA vs AI stocks** [00:01] — Bitcoin is at its 200-week moving average while AI stocks are way above. This divergence makes Bitcoin an attractive trade. - **Bitcoin underperforming, buy opportunity** [00:15] — Bitcoin is underperforming, but historically that's when you buy it. Expect 30-40% annual returns at this price. - **SpaceX vs Bitcoin: chalk and cheese** [00:29] — SpaceX is everything we hate about traditional finance: private for 15 years, only rich people could invest, then IPO at $2T with only 5% float. - **SpaceX is a high FDV shitcoin** [01:46] — SpaceX has 5% free float, 95% locked. It's more volatile than Bitcoin, down 31% from top in 3 days. Great company, but finance is a farce. - **Bitcoin chugs away, supply limited** [02:03] — Bitcoin continues steadily. Only a few percent left to enter circulation, then no more. At 200-week MA, trade is obvious. - **Nasdaq vs Bitcoin trade** [02:28] — Nasdaq up 30%+ in 12 months, Bitcoin at 200-week. Which is better? Obvious: Bitcoin. Money will come back over time. - **Patience is a virtue** [02:56] — Many IPOs coming with high FDVs. Nasdaq will enter bear market eventually, high FDV companies down 30-50%. Wait and buy weak assets. - **Buy things that are weak** [03:10] — If you look a few years ahead, buy weak assets. SpaceX lost almost an entire Bitcoin network in 4 days. Know where we are. - **Bybit promotion** [03:35] — Sponsor: Bybit. Sign up, deposit, get bonus. Trade crypto assets. - **Bitcoin as hedge** [03:48] — Bitcoin is the asset everyone sells or shorts. It's perfect for hedging tech exposure. Trades 24/7. - **Divergence between Nasdaq and Bitcoin** [04:16] — Nasdaq has done well, Bitcoin collapsed. Trade is becoming more obvious. In Nasdaq bull markets, Bitcoin follows and goes nuts. - **Drawdown and recovery** [04:40] — Bitcoin underperforms in percentage during drawdowns. As Nasdaq recovers, Bitcoin doesn't. Some see this as a good trade. - **Bitcoin higher ARR over 5 years** [05:06] — Bitcoin likely to have higher percentage ARR over next 5 years than tech because we're at bear market levels. Trade is there. - **Investing requires belief** [05:21] — You have to believe in what you're buying to buy when it goes tits up. That's investing. If you don't believe, you can't hold. - **SpaceX is a farce** [06:02] — SpaceX with 5% float is a clown show. If 70% were trading, maybe. But not now. Bitcoin I believe in. - **Bitcoin collapsed but still believe** [06:30] — Bitcoin collapsed, everyone gone elsewhere, but I still believe. It will lay about for a bit but come back. - **Macro: oil, inflation, war** [06:58] — Inflation expectations coming down, war rotating out, oil flowing. US military ensures oil is basically free. That's the game. - **Oil inflation-adjusted is free** [07:25] — Oil is basically free when adjusted for inflation. US prints money, forces assets up, gets oil for free. Commodities spike when someone kicks up a fuss. - **Cycles repeat** [08:05] — Seen these cycles over and over. Assets go up. US needs Bitcoin as American asset, flowing through Wall Street slowly. - **Money printing and inflation metrics** [08:30] — Eventually rotate into money printing. They'll change inflation metrics to include AI, lower than current. Let it play out. - **Break evens falling, GPU rental index** [09:00] — Break evens falling off a cliff. GPU rental index. Many companies not doing well, Microsoft below 200-week MA. - **Bitcoin is best asset** [09:28] — Cut through noise. Bitcoin is the best asset, antithesis of nonsense. SpaceX at $2T doesn't make money, banks made billions in fees. - **Get ambition back** [09:55] — Industry not ambitious anymore. Want 11.5% from strategy. Should go 30X. Buy Bitcoin, hold, don't sell. Overtake gold. - **Bybit promotion and outro** [10:21] — Bybit link in description. Deposit bonus. Cheers for watching. ### Conclusion The speaker believes Bitcoin is at a critical juncture and represents a superior long-term investment compared to overvalued tech IPOs. He emphasizes the importance of conviction and patience, predicting that Bitcoin will eventually outperform and 'overtake gold'. ## Transcript more obvious, right? Where Bitcoin is at its 200-week moving average and you've got AI way above that. And so sometimes trades kind of start to jump out and that's what's happening. Bitcoin Let's call it 30, 40% a year at this price and Bitcoin is the underperforming asset and that's when you buy it. Uh that's when people that do buy it outperform because you're always looking a few years ahead. Look, SpaceX is a great company, but comparing SpaceX and Bitcoin, literally chalk and cheese. This, SpaceX, right? Is literally everything we hate about traditional finance, right? SpaceX and Bitcoin are about the same age and you have SpaceX, which was private for like 15 years. The only people that could invest were people in the circles, rich people, right? People that knew uh that had their bankers who could ring them and get a private allocation. And then it comes to market at $2 trillion market cap it's a growth company, so you're not really looking at potential profits, but This thing comes at a $2 trillion valuation on an IPO where only 5% of the valuation on an IPO where only 5% of the float is tradeable. This is a high fully That's what it is, right? I'm not so talking about not talking about the company. Company, great company. The the finance behind all of this is everything we despise. Is everything that Bitcoin was right? 5% of the shares are free floating. 95% can't trade still. This is a high FDV shitcoin. Great company, though. Anyway, if you bought the top 3 days ago, you're down 31% already, right? It's more volatile than Bitcoin. Look, great company. If it goes down 50%, maybe just buy it, right? This is everything we despise. This is everything we despise about finance. And Bitcoin just chugs away, chugs away. Guess what? There's only a few more percent of the Bitcoin network to actually enter circulation, and then there's no more. Bitcoin's at its 200-week moving average. it. The trade kind of is standing out, right? It's like, do I want Look, the Nasdaq's up 30-plus percent in the last 12 months. it there or Bitcoin at its 200-week? What is the better trade? It's pretty obvious, right? And so, I think just over time eventually, the money comes back. And you're seeing Look, you're not seeing too much of a pump or anything in lot of IPOs to come, so there's still a lot of money has to go into that. FDVs, right? You can buy them at these crazy prices. Like, patience is a virtue. What one do you want to buy? The Nasdaq's going to go into a bear market at some point again, right? These high FDV companies are going to be down 30 to 50%. Space X is already down 30%. So, maybe just wait pretty obvious, right? If you look a few years ahead, you just buy things that are weak. This is This This This company lost almost an entire Bitcoin network in the last like 4 days, right? So, just know where we are, like Bitcoin. even start thinking, right, about anything else. And you're is a better trade. If you trade Bitcoin crypto trade assets, you can trade them Bybit, click the link in the description, sign up, make a deposit, and they'll give you a deposit bonus to trade with. I get that Bitcoin has been the asset that everyone has chosen to sell or forget or to take shorts in. Um it's the perfect asset to do that. So, your tech plays are just absolutely flying, right? And you definitely don't want to get rid of them. You want to hedge with Bitcoin. That's what it is in the short term. It's a perfect asset. It Everything going on in Iran is just awful, right? So, everyone's like, We're doing so well in the Nasdaq. How can we, you know, hedge some of that exposure?" It's in Bitcoin. It trades 24/7. That's fine. There is a divergence here between, you know, what the Nasdaq has done and, you know, Bitcoin has continued to collapse. So, I think the trade is becoming way more obvious. Look, when when the Nasdaq has a bull market, Bitcoin follows and then it just goes nuts, right? drawdown and it's the same with Bitcoin, right? And it just definitely underperforms there, right? In terms of the percentage. And then as we climb out for the Nasdaq, we have a, you know, a climb for the Bitcoin and then it's just So, we have outperformed. Now we're underperforming. Actually, what's happening is you have this drawdown because of the war and obviously way Nasdaq starts to recover. Bitcoin actually just doesn't. some people might look at and say, "Hey, do you know what? It's actually a really good trade in Bitcoin right now." Uh look, we had a great move in tech. Great. But Bitcoin's probably going to have higher percentage ARR over the next 5 years than that cuz we're at this bear market level right now. Just typically think the trade is there. It's pretty obvious. Not going to zero. So, just bear market and you're going to be making very, very good for returns. I look at lines on charts and squiggles you're actually investing, you have to believe in what you're buying genuinely because you have to be able to buy it when everything goes tits up and it's at you have to still put money in there knowing that the price isn't going to go up from that buy. That's investing. Now, if you want to else, that's like 1% of what you do. Why even believe in what you're buying? Like, do I believe in SpaceX when it was trading up there? What a mess. What a total mess. 5% of the shares are are trading? don't want to get anywhere near that. Now, do I think it's a great company? Sure. And if 70% of the shares are trading, maybe I can look at it. But, the whole thing is just a a farce, right? It's a clown show. Now, Bitcoin, I believe in it. And I believe in the Nasdaq, right? It's up a lot this year. 20% bear market for a while, but I believe the Nasdaq index is a great they're going to go up over time. I believe that. Individual trades and me. Bitcoin is completely collapsed, right? Everyone's just gone elsewhere, but I still believe in it. So, I can still buy make money in the next few weeks or months. It's just going to lay about for a bit. I believe that what Bitcoin represents is going to be desirable over time, and it will come back. So, that's why I buy it, right? Not because it's on anywhere, right? Inflation expectations are coming down. The war is just kind of rotating out. Oil is flowing, so that's great news. is we have a military, we'll go around and beat everyone up, and make sure that they sell their oil to us for free. We print paper, send it around, they give us their oil. Now, oil if you look at inflation-adjusted, is basically trading I mean, how far do you want to go back? It's basically free, right? That's the game here. You have a big military, you beat everyone up, oil is basically free, you send them the paper. That's it. That's the game. That's what's happened again, right? The difference is, if you look at the American stock market, it's up thousands of percent. But oil, inflation adjusted, is down down down down. So, that's the game. Print the money, force the assets up, get all the free. Sometimes, someone kicks up a fuss, and commodities go woof, because that's how they should be And then the military comes out again, and the commodities come down again. I've seen these cycles just over and over and over and over. The assets go up. Now, that's why we need the US to go into the Bitcoin as well, and it is. It's flowing through Wall Street, but it's slow and steady. And I believe that that is It's an American technology now, right? It's an It's an American asset. That's great, cuz they have the big military. commodities is coming down. And eventually, it will just rotate into money printing, cuz that has to happen, going to look at the way that they measure inflation. And guess what? When inflation, it never increases the rate of inflation, does they're going to say, "Well, look, we have to factor in AI, and we think that a new metric, and it's going to be lower than what they're measuring now." This is the game, so you just have to let it play out. And that's that in Bitcoin. Job done. Break evens falling off a cliff. Good Um GPU rental index Look, I've seen some of the A lot of companies are not doing that well right now. Like Microsoft is down below its 200-week moving average. not interesting. It's more interesting to create content interesting. So, do you buy Microsoft at the 200-week? >> Lots of companies are like this, actually. Cut through the noise. What's the best asset in the world? It's Bitcoin. 100% right. It's absolutely. Because this is the antithesis of all of that nonsense all of the media can only talk about SpaceX and now it's trading at 2 trillion but it doesn't make any money. Right? And the banks made hundreds of billions of dollars in fees. Bitcoin, right? Come on. Let's Let's go with Bitcoin, right? Let's take it to TradFi. Let's actually get our confidence back and our ambition back cuz the whole industry is not ambitious anymore. The whole industry is "Oh, I want to get 11 and 1/2% in STRC from strategy." What they did Who cares? This thing should go 30X. Get your ambition back, right? Buy this thing. Hold it. Don't sell it to them and get 30X. Let's overtake gold. Let's get our ambition back, right? At the 200-week if you do buy Bitcoin or trade it, description to buy it, make a deposit, they'll give you a deposit a deposit them, you can just take the money out as well, but great platform. Link in the Cheers for watching and I'll see you in the next one.