[00:02] brutal. Prices have dropped a lot. Things really didn't turn out the way myself. And this has really pushed me to rethink how I'm positioned in the market and just kind of the strategy that I'm using in the current market state. So, I
[00:16] my portfolio is positioned today, what I'm still holding, what I still have conviction in going into 2026, and just overall how I'm thinking about things through what Goldman Sachs calls the largest ever supply shock for global
[00:31] crude markets in history. And despite this massively bearish macro event, as the Cabassi Letter puts it, this is the largest energy shock in history, Bitcoin has been holding pretty dang strong. This area between 60,000 and 70,000 has
[00:44] just proven to be a really resilient support area for Bitcoin. And that's despite the fact that other assets like gold are absolutely falling off a cliff right now. As this post puts it, the past 3 weeks gold is down 17%, silver is
[00:56] past 3 weeks gold is down 17%, silver is down 31%, and Bitcoin is up 8%. search terms like Bitcoin is worthless hitting a all-time high right now, it does certainly feel like we're closer to the bottom than we are at the top. And I
[01:09] happened over the past couple years really well, where you can see in past cycles, in 2017, we hit a parabolic zone. In 2021, we hit a parabolic zone zone. In 2021, we hit a parabolic zone almost twice. And since 2022, we haven't
[01:22] gotten even close. We barely tapped into this kind of like yellowish-green area. And that's because, as I've highlighted over and over and over again, the macro conditions that were present here and here have never been present during this
[01:36] entire period. A lot of this has been driven by structural flows from institutional adoption and the narrative hype around the ETFs, etc., uh the institutional acceptance and acknowledgement of the crypto space. So,
[01:50] I personally think the best is still ahead. And I know that sounds a little bit delusional given how brutal the past 5 months have been, but almost every analyst in the crypto space who takes a macro forward view of the markets is
[02:03] actually really bullish on where crypto is headed from here. However, I do think 5 months, a lot has changed in the market. And the same kind of plays that some sort of alt season at the end of 2025 are not the same kind of plays that
[02:17] are necessarily going to succeed over the next year or the next 2 years, etc. acknowledging as I've talked about in the couple of the past videos that we are heading into a window of weakness during a period right here, which I'll
[02:30] video, but we're not yet out of the woods as I've talked about over and over again. Right now we're flushed with liquidity from tax refunds, but we're about to give a lot of that liquidity back from people actually having to go
[02:42] pay their taxes. Still, overall, I'm really bullish on crypto and where it goes from here into the end of 2026, into 2027, into 2028, etc. And I do and with the overall institutional adoption of crypto, there are a lot of
[02:56] alts that stand to benefit heavily going into these years. And I think there's going to be fortunes made in some of these alts, but I think one category specifically is going to just vastly outshine the rest and is a little bit
[03:09] more resilient in the current market state. And so I'm going to go through my now, what I'm excited about, what I'm really bullish about, that this category resilient than some of the other categories in the crypto space. All
[03:21] conviction plays first that I'm still holding, still pumped on, and still excited about going into the end of 2026. The first one up is Infra, and I've talked about Infra a lot, but basically just during this horrible 5
[03:34] months of just pain. But even despite the the horrible 5 months of pain that actually done pretty well. It It was born in the darkness and it It has the darkness. And Infra is the execution layer for autonomous finance. And its
[03:49] tagline is AI agents are becoming economic actors, Today's infrastructure Agents can't hide intent. Agents can't route across venues. Agents can't reason system that solves it all. One stack, complete agent autonomy. And I'm
[04:03] for a couple core reasons. And one of the biggest reasons that I'm bullish on specifically Infra has to do with the fact that if you went back 5 years and there were globally, I don't know exactly what percentage of the
[04:16] population it would be, but it it has to be like ridiculously ridiculously small, like 0.001% of the planet was a software and and build things, etc. And what a lot of people don't know is that market
[04:29] for developers is around a 30 to 50 billion dollar a year market, okay? So, around 30 to 50 billion dollars annually is made from software products being sold to these developers, which are a minute, minute slice of the global total
[04:43] population. Fast forward to today. And just about every person I know is building something with Claude code or building something with Codex. They're vibe coding some app or like at the bare minimum, they've built a really simple
[04:55] like workout tracker or something like that. The total number of people building products is exploding, like rapidly. And this is only going to get bigger and bigger the better that these, you know, platforms get, the better that
[05:08] Claude code gets, the better that Codex gets, the better and easier it is to go vibe code out these software products, the more you're going to see this market share expand where a lot more people are going to be looking to buy into a lot of
[05:20] these tools. I kind of equate it to sort of like a gold rush, right? Like vibe code this app. I'm going to go make a million dollars selling this app." And go buy picks and shovels because they think they're going to go strike gold
[05:34] know, whatever. And Infra sells picks and shovels. They sell the stack that crypto rails. And they're currently sitting at just 1.4 million in market cap. So, if we see any sort of meaningful turnaround in the market this
[05:50] do well. Even if I'm wrong, even if we don't see any sort of meaningful the most bearish of the bearish will when the four-year cycle kind of completes it's it's total round trip,
[06:04] picking back up. And as far as me personally, I still think that AI is In fact, I think it's going to be a lot bigger deal around October. I think developers building on crypto rails, and I think you're going to have even more
[06:18] people excited about the, you know, building software. Given how well the Infra has already performed during the, you know, the past five months, uh, you know, I'm not that worried about how it it might fare between now and October.
[06:30] happy to hold for the long haul. Second up is Aevo, and obviously this is another AI crypto project. And their tagline is the future of capital is autonomous. Aevo is the execution layer for intelligence in DeFi, home to the
[06:43] agents, and the simplest way to create on-chain portfolios. And if you guys full redesign of the front page of their website. And the goal around Aevo has always been to simplify crypto, to use AI to make crypto more accessible to the
[06:57] masses. And so, it says, "Allocate capital through natural language." Aevo based on the narratives, portfolios, and strategies you care about. "Browse the smart indexes and agent-managed portfolios in the marketplace, or let
[07:09] telling it what you want." And so, they talk about their smart indexes, AI haven't yet released, which is called Miles. And then, uh, here it says, "Talk to Miles, he listens." You can do things like, "Sell half my soul if it doubles
[07:22] from here. Move my idle USDC wherever the highest APY is. Rebalance my portfolio weekly to match the S&P crypto index." And overall, Aevo has just excited about where they're heading. And just in general, I mentioned earlier, I
[07:35] think there's one crypto category that's kind of like the one category to rule them all, and that is the AI crypto space. And I don't necessarily mean actually any crypto projects that are like using AI necessarily or like trying
[07:47] to blend crypto with AI necessarily. I just mean anything that's tokenized that has to do with AI that's in the crypto space. AI in my opinion is going to continue to dominate people's thoughts, people's, you know, visions of the
[08:02] future over the coming years as it gets better and better and better. It's my slice of the pie. Like everyone wants to get in on the action. But everyone knows capital buying Nvidia at a multi-trillion dollar market cap. People
[08:15] want to get in on the ground floor, but there's really not a lot of options. And the dot-com bubble, during the railroad mania, during the Mississippi bubble, there has always been a huge massive appetite in the market for really cheap,
[08:30] really small entries into, you know, whatever that bubble is. During the dot-com bubble, you had things like pets.com, you had things like webvan, things like cosmo.com, boo.com, and all sorts of things that people invested a
[08:43] could be the future of the internet, in the case of all those, turned out not to be true. And what I'm trying to appetite for that. They want to get in
[08:55] today that happens on crypto rails. Like in crypto. It's in it's in tokens. And I bubble's going to pop. It's the end of
[09:07] it's even close to the end of of the AI bubble. I think the AI bubble is likely history, in existence, because it's the single most transformative technology in heat up, you're going to see some of these AI crypto projects absolutely go
[09:23] prediction they're going to see some AI crypto projects go over a hundred billion total in market cap because the the mania, the froth around this market will get absolutely insane. And so in general, I think that the category of AI
[09:38] strong narrative, a really strong moat, and are actually building something, you know, useful, I think that entire category is primed for like an AI alt season well ahead of any sort of broader alt season. And not necessarily, you
[09:51] macro conditions, either. I think it's probably one of the first things you're going to see once the market state turns around. Once crypto as a whole kind of bullish again, starts heading higher, I think the first things to kind of leap
[10:05] to life is going to be a lot of these AI crypto tokens. The third thing I'm Bitcoin. I think of it kind of like adjacent to holding cash. Bitcoin has low dropped down to about $60,000. And it certainly feels like the range
[10:19] been solid. And again, I have something to say about that a little bit towards the end of this video. But it's been solid enough that, you know, at $60,000, all-time highs again, that that's a clean double of your money. And so, for
[10:32] clean double of your money. And so, for me, uh again, being more cash adjacent, cash at the risk of prices going higher, right? Like I still want to hold cash. know, if the market does take off, I want to hold a little bit of Bitcoin as
[10:46] of safe bet in terms of things. And I know a lot of people think price is whatever. And if that happens, yeah, that will that will suck to get that price in half. But I think the current market floor, especially given macro
[10:59] little bit less likely than some people make it out to be. The next thing I'm holding is ResearchCoin. Uh and this is one I've been talking about for forever. I did not give up on it in, you know, over the misery of this last 5 months. I
[11:13] think it's actually crazy to give up on this one because again, Brian Armstrong is the co-founder. And it's the only token that he's the co-founder of. And although ResearchHub isn't necessarily, you know, AI, it is kind of AI adjacent.
[11:28] It is kind of like in that same sort of category of sci-fi, futuristic, going to, you know, immensely benefit from AI. Uh maybe an industry like AI is going to disrupt science and and, you know, uh it's going to be the new entrants like
[11:40] Research Hub that kind of take over the mantle. There's a lot of reasons I could list on why I'm bullish on RSC, but the easiest one to understand is that Brian Armstrong is the co-founder. And so, all you're really looking for is the market
[11:52] to follow. And in fact, historically, anytime that the market does turn quickest ones to follow. It performs incredibly well in a positive market state, uh but but of course it hasn't been performing well over the last 5
[12:06] depressed negative market state. After that is Cow Protocol sitting at 116 of more of an infrastructure I I I guess you could say this is a picks and shovels play for crypto as a whole. This is not related to anything with AI or
[12:20] more of a pristine bet on just crypto. Like crypto alts doing well. Uh I think is again waiting a little bit more for an alt season. Uh so, maybe a little bit further off, uh but this is a real product, real revenue, real usage, real
[12:35] adoption, and one that I'm happy to hold in my portfolio over the longer term. After that is Akash. I've been a long-term uh supporter of Akash, and Akash's tagline is the decentralized cloud built for AI's next frontier. And
[12:49] the part I really like about Akash is it's really tied heavily into AI as well. It's tied into GPUs and Nvidia and data centers and that entire wider earlier, AI tokens are going to be the first ones to turn around when the
[13:04] market state turns around. After that is Persona. Persona has been doing a lot in the AI space including Hannah Studios, including their main character a groundbreaking agent framework to deploy your brand's main character. Unus
[13:17] Token has not fared well over the last 5 months. It has been absolutely brutal and over again they're a really adaptable team. They're an AI focused or really all altcoins, it's really waiting for the market state to turn
[13:30] could not work out or whatever, but I'm bullish on the team, bullish on the AI my portfolio going forward. Outside of those tokens, I hold the smaller basket of lower conviction tokens. Those are really my main conviction bets. I also
[13:43] in the Stoic Meta strategy, which has actually done really, really well, uh continued to hold its own and really outperform Bitcoin. The Stoic Meta long But Stoic Meta has been, over the past 3 years, an incredibly underrated strategy
[13:58] Bitcoin, right? Like if you're going to just like buy and hold Bitcoin, this is ends up outperforming just buying and holding Bitcoin. And outside of that, I And what I'm really waiting on with that cash and with those stable coins is the
[14:12] current period of market weakness to end. And that period of market weakness basically starts now until about mid-April. And I think this is the most dangerous period in the entire market, probably likely this year. That's just
[14:25] weakness, having to do with the fact that we've had this period of strength from this high liquidity, and now we're going into a period of lower liquidity. because it is kind of a confusing market state with big beautiful bill spending,
[14:39] hard to predict how these things kind of converge and come together, but what I can say is certainly the next period of the stage of the market from now until terms of liquidity. And that's because people have to pay their taxes. When
[14:53] they pay their taxes, that's money going out of their bank to the TGA, and that liquidity getting sucked out of the market. And this is happening during, as we mentioned earlier, the largest energy crisis in history. And that's kind of a
[15:05] like a incredibly powerful negative macro narrative that's that's, you know, putting pressure on the market over and over again. But also, inflation, as I I've talked about for
[15:19] the past year, is the one thing, the absolute one thing that can just destroy my entire thesis, the entire macro setup, everything. And this is coming tariff inflation, hasn't been worried about all the inflation doomerism that's
[15:33] year over year. I'm telling you right now that the current crisis the current oil crisis has a huge huge ability to absolutely just crush things. And I don't think anyone really has a clue as to how soon this conflict
[15:48] puts it, Trump every Monday we have a deal. Trump every Friday, I will use a nuke destroy Iran. Obviously, he's been a little bit facetious there, but the every Friday is like, "Hey, they put on the pressure."
[16:01] trying to pressure Iran. And then every Monday because they don't want the "Hey, we got a deal. Don't worry, it's going to end soon." And it seems to be they're playing this playbook over and over and over again. And nobody really
[16:13] knows, like, do we have a deal? Are things going to end soon or not? Cuz we really need things to end soon in order for the markets to do well. If these if this keeps going for too long, it is not good for inflation, it is not
[16:25] good for the markets. And again, this is coming from somebody who is not worried narratives. Nothing None of those things bothered me. This is the this this one This is a big deal. And so these things converging at the same time to me is
[16:39] just like the ultimate macro recipe for absolute chaos. And predicting how it works out is is just I don't even know if it's possible to do that. I call it a period of chaos, okay? So between now and and April 15th is a period of chaos.
[16:52] And and basically you're rolling the dice. I You don't You have no idea what's going to happen between that period of of time. side. Things could actually work out really well, and we could all make a ton
[17:04] absolutely horrible by the time we get to the other side. Point is we we don't know. We can't know. And you got to position yourself knowing that you don't market, you guys, I'm pretty positive, I'm pretty upbeat. Wish I had kind of a
[17:16] better way to say that, but that is the that is the truth of of what's going to happen over, you know, basically the next month. Now, if we can clear that if we can clear that gap, I think the rest of the year just looks absolutely prime.
[17:29] I think the rest of the year looks fantastic and it's still we're warming up towards that macro summer. That macro conditions where where everything goes conditions present that were present 2017 and 2021. I don't know how fast
[17:42] things move kind of at their own pace, but that's the direction and trajectory that we're in general heading. The only thing that can disturb that trajectory is what's going on right now. And and that would really break things. If
[17:55] things to go with the wrong way, it can take that positive trajectory. We might expect, but we're still heading the right way and that could divert it to some other outcome, right? Obviously, eventually we'd still have a a bull
[18:07] market, you know, one of these days and things would turn around. Uh but but it basically be like a little a reset that that would not be fun and and would have to would cause me at least to
[18:20] completely rethink everything I'm doing. Now, that's not to say that there won't opportunity. There's There literally is always opportunity in the markets, but conditions. I've been offsides over the past 5 months. I've not been playing to
[18:34] playing with the right conditions for the 5 years before that and I've held my I see where we're heading, but I do want to really really emphasize that this window of weakness is like far more important than I think a lot of people
[18:46] kind of will dictate how things go long term. And if you're curious about seeing my entire portfolio or you want to see every time I buy and sell various tokens as well as different weekly video market updates, uh currently the Obsidian
[18:58] you can sign up for the wait list in the description of this video. As always, of this is me telling you to do anything with your money. I'm clearly, obviously, should always do your own research. If this video is helpful, make sure you hit
[19:11] that subscribe button and the little bell next to it to be notified each time I release a video. Thanks for watching and I'll see you next week.