---
title: 'Stocks TANK'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=pn7-UwGbScs'
video_id: 'pn7-UwGbScs'
date: 2026-07-21
duration_sec: 4625
channel: 'Meet Kevin'
---

# Stocks TANK

> Source: [Stocks TANK](https://youtube.com/watch?v=pn7-UwGbScs)

## Summary

The video covers a turbulent day in the stock market, focusing on the S&P 500's repeated failure to break the 595 level, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving oil prices higher, and concerns about inflation and labor market data. The host also discusses various market news, including private credit risks, Fed commentary, and the impact of the Iran conflict on global markets.

### Key Points

- **595 Level as a Key Resistance** [00:15] — The S&P 500 has tested the 595 level three times in the last 30 days, acting as a strong resistance. Breaking below could signal further downside.
- **Oil Surge Due to Geopolitical Tensions** [01:30] — Oil prices are rocketing due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown and potential attacks on Saudi Aramco infrastructure, with Brent crude up 50%.
- **Labor Market Data Concerns** [02:14] — ADP and services employment surveys are expected to show a rebound, but a negative jobs print combined with geopolitical turmoil could cause a market sell-off.
- **Manufacturing Weakness** [03:50] — ISM manufacturing data shows for every hiring comment, there are 1.4 comments about cutting staff, indicating continued weakness in the sector.
- **Oil Price Parabolic Move** [07:47] — Brent crude has risen to $83, with a parabolic move due to the Iran conflict, impacting inflation expectations.
- **Israel Strikes Iran's Council of Experts** [08:27] — The Israeli Air Force struck the building housing Iran's Council of Experts to disrupt the appointment of a new supreme leader, escalating the conflict.
- **Drones Strike US Embassy in Saudi Arabia** [14:43] — Two drones struck the US embassy in Saudi Arabia, pulling the country into the widening conflict and causing oil supply disruptions.
- **Iraq Halts Oil Pipeline to Turkey** [16:00] — The Iraq-Turkey pipeline (ITP) has been halted due to security concerns, further tightening oil supply.
- **Market Breaks Below 595** [18:55] — The S&P 500 breaks below the 595 level, confirming the 'trident from hell' pattern and raising fears of further declines.
- **Fed Officials Divided on Rate Cuts** [21:31] — Fed Williams suggests rate cuts will be warranted if inflation falls, but other policymakers are skeptical, especially with new inflation catalysts like tariffs and war.
- **Private Credit Crunch Warning** [26:01] — Soros warns of a painful 18-24 month cash crunch in private credit, similar to what private equity funds have faced.
- **Oracle Credit Default Swaps at Highs** [33:33] — Oracle's CDS have risen to the highest level this cycle due to its AI data center exposure, indicating rising default risk.
- **Labor Department Aides Fired Before Jobs Report** [56:21] — Two top aides to the labor secretary were forced out after an internal investigation, raising concerns about manipulation of jobs data.
- **Accusations of Rigging Economic Data** [01:00:04] — The host argues that firing people for bad numbers is objectively rigging economic data, contrasting with previous administrations.
- **Luxury vs. Lower-Class Hotel Performance** [01:06:40] — Luxury hotel RevPAR is up 9% year-over-year, while lower-class hotels are falling. Canadian visits are down 16.7% and Vegas tourism down 7.5%.

### Conclusion

The market is facing multiple headwinds: geopolitical tensions driving oil prices higher, inflation concerns, and potential labor market weakness. The break below 595 signals increased risk, and investors should be cautious.

## Transcript

another day. Another day, another dollar in the furnace of the stock market. What H E double hockey sticks is happening here? Well, Kevin, it looks like the
stock market is toying with the idea of losing 595. Uh this morning in the Alpha report we uh we talked a lot about our strategy regarding 595 here. And 595,
what I think is most important just for everybody to remember is that 595 in the last 30 days has been a trident to hell. If you look very closely at the last 30 days, we have now tried to break 595. I counted once,
twice, three times. It is a trident. Now, you can argue that it is a really strong wall or floor, wall or floor, but the lines don't last forever. You
know, they they hold for as long as they can, but we've held 595 three times in the last 30 days. Uh we might break through one of these days, which isn't great.
It's not great. It's not great. Yes, yes, it's all Iran's fault. Obviously, it's their fault. It's never Donnie T's fault. Uh now, understandable that
uh oil is rocketing. Uh not only the Strait of Hormuz being shut, but uh we also anticipate that this might last a lot longer and have far wider wider reaching consequences than expected given the potential attacks against
Saudi Aramco uh uh or or at least their their state uh the state where they are. You know, any attacks on infrastructure would not be so great. You've got Fed Schmidt no room to be
complacent on inflation. Inflation is hot, demand outpacing supply. These are all prepared remarks. Uh labor market imbalance. We also have we'll be getting ADP along with uh services uh surveys for employment. So,
we'll get to see what's happening on both the private payroll side uh and then of course the uh the surveys for service providers. Both of those will, in my opinion, indicate
opinion, indicate uh some hopeful rebound continuing for important for our broader economy. We we don't really want uh a weak labor market at all. The last thing we want right now is a negative print on top of uh this
geopolitical turmoil because usually pri- private private uh usually geopolitical turmoil is a buy-the-dip opportunity. Uh however, if you combine that with a negative jobs print, you know, the
market will absolutely poop its pants. Uh it's it's really going to suck. Poopy-doopy. happen. I think there's a low shot that we really get like a negative payrolls
print, but you never know. We'll get January revisions. January revisions. Uh we'll also get um you know, the BLS numbers, so we'll kind of get to dive in to see are we getting
a broader based recovery on jobs or are we still on a very narrow band for uh the labor market? Uh it obviously would be very nice to start seeing uh expansion, but that's not what we saw in the surveys yesterday. Uh in fact, if we
pull up the surveys, let's see here. I looked at ISM manufacturing yesterday, and then we had S&P manufacturing.
And there were just some notes in here I really like about the labor market such as this. This was an ISM manufacturing for every comment on hiring, there was 1.4 comments
comments uh on basically cutting staff. That's not great. Uh we don't like to see that. Uh so you're still seeing this in manufacturing, still slowing down. Uh production growth slowed in response to
a near stalling of orders with the weakest manufacturing report since July. because of weather, but it could also be bladdy bluddy. Who knows?
Uh so anyway, as we bounce along 595 here, let's go uh take a look and see what some other news is today. I know that uh there were some rumors
that uh you've ended up uh having cancellations at chat GPT after they took the Pentagon contract from uh users sort of protesting the use of AI in war. Apple discusses Google hosting new Siri.
Yes, yes, we need a new Siri, please. Amazon explores helping other apps sell chatbot ads. Huh. All right. Basically as an ad platform, right? Which is interesting because that's kind
of what old school Trade Desk used to do. And uh boy, you know, they they've companies have started creating their own platforms. member live stream back when this puppy was like $117.
doing. You know, Netflix was warning that these these ad platforms were coming. And so now Amazon's ad platform wants to actually sell chatbot ads. All right, let's see here. Uh Elliott invests in Pinterest to help
fund buyback. Pinterest I feel like they've been left for dead. Let's take a look at this.
say. Look at that, $18. We haven't seen this line roughly since COVID. I mean, COVID they got down to $10. got down to $10. And then they rocketed from $10 to $89.
But yeah, look at that. Broke the downtrend. And as soon as that downtrend broke, what a violent sell-off there on pins. Yikes.
high voltage, extra high voltage power lines. Oh, yeah. More glow-in-the-dark power lines. Well, you got to span those distances, and more voltage is better. You get less uh less drop-off, less uh voltage drop.
satellites with faster cell service in '27. Yes. Just help us IPO first. off or X is going to pay off its debt before
the IPO, which makes sense because a lot of people were really nervous about, you know, who's going to pay for all that that debt that um uh Elon picked up over at XAI. And I don't know where the money's
coming from, but XAI did raise $20 in January. So, maybe they're sort of like refinancing all their debt before the IPO. IPO. All right. Iran, Iran, Iran.
US inflation. Yeah, that's the big concern right now. Let's go pull it. >> [clears throat] cough. All right. So
it's up like 50%. Brent is up at $83. I mean, there was a time this was We were knocking on the door of 60 there for a
have absolutely gone parabolic on this war. Holy smokes. Look at that line. nuts Iran bombs council choosing next leader.
Oh, did they really? Yeah, cuz they have a council of like 80 clerics that are supposed to get together. And I remember I remember reading that I'm like, man, putting 80 clerics in the same place, that sounds like a bad idea.
The Israeli Air Force on Tuesday struck the building housing Iran's Council of Experts. Yep. In an attempt to disrupt the process of pointing of appointing a new supreme leader. That makes sense. Council of Experts is the body within
the Iranian regime with the authority to appoint a new leader. Yeah, they have a um role uh of voting for a new supreme role uh of voting for a new supreme leader.
wanted to prevent them from picking a new supreme leader. Wow. That's crazy.
I mean, it makes sense cuz you don't want to replace one head for another. much on lowering oil prices. I mean, you you release a strategic
you release a strategic oil reserve, but um targets US allies, hits a base. Yeah, and we evacuated a lot of these bases.
he's actually going to go this time. That's funny. US city step up security amid Iran tensions. Yeah, there's a lot of concern for more attacks in the United States. I
terrible. All right, let's try the Doomers. All right, let's try the Doomers. So, the Doomers over here. Uh war expands. I've got an embassy was attacked. Now,
how was it attacked? Was it attacked with drones? The problem with the drones is these are like toy Yeah, $20,000 drones. And oh, scheiße, we just lost drones. And oh, scheiße, we just lost the 595 line uh on the queues.
Uh it's not good. That is not good. This is This is the Trident from hell, you know? Just falling like it is." I know, dude. What the like It was at like 198. It was
like, "Oh, it's going over 200. It's going back to 200." And then nope. Somebody pulls out the rug. Uh You know what that calls for, right?
That calls for opening an Ascended Heroes Pokémon pack. Uh Let's see if we can get a pull on a red day. Come on, man. We Uh If the stock market's going to be
red, then at least we can be degenerate gamblers with Pokémon cards, because that's not gambling, right? This is This Pokémon cards collecting. It's not gambling. It's collecting, stepbro. Ascended Heroes, I think it's only one.
Let me see if I did it right. Did I GET A LEAF? OH, I GOT A LEAF. What are the odds? Uh I don't know, like one in eight. What are the odds? I don't know. This is This is a good sign though. This is a good
sign. I'm feeling good about this one. Okay, I never pull anything on my streams. But But I'm wearing Squirtle today. So Uh there's a Pikachu from the Ascended Heroes Pack in case anybody wants to see
Heroes Pack in case anybody wants to see the new Pikachu art from the Ascended the new Pikachu art from the Ascended Heroes Pack. All right. Come on, baby. That's cool. Iris is fighting spirit. Okay.
Okay. That's a nice little reverse holo right there. Look at that. look at the market falling. What is that? Why are you looking at the market? Stop Stop looking at the market. And And
Oh, another reverse holo. OH, we got a That's a That's a pretty good looking one. That's probably like a $5 card. Look at that. That's nice. $5 card. Look at that. That's nice. Little EX Ho-Oh Wow, shining feathers.
Look at that. We actually pulled something on on a live stream. See? See, it was it was meant to be today. I don't even think I have any card protectors in here because I never pull anything. Uh
It's the two degenerate. Let's see. Let's watch. It's going to be like worth a dollar. All right, let's go like worth a dollar. All right, let's go clean this mess up.
Oh. No matches found. Oh, that's even worse. Uh maybe I scanned it wrong. There we go. That's a pretty good picture. Can't find that. I'll look later. All
right, cool. So, where were we? >> [sighs] >> It kept going down. Yeah, it can't find any matches. What a freaking scam.
o ho o And then it's ho o What's my number on it? O26 it? O26 026
Oh yeah, it's like a dollar. It's not worth anything. Damn. Wait, is that the worth anything. Damn. Wait, is that the holo?
>> [snorts] >> Damn it. Here we go. Kevin thinks he pulled something finally and then nope, it's just it's just a loser. So I should have kept it sealed. Have you seen those
videos? Those videos [clears throat] are funny where at the end the guy runs plays the audio after he pulls nothing. Should have kept it sealed. That's great. That's hilarious. Uh that's
>> [laughter] >> Anyway, okay, two drones struck the embassy US embassy pulling Saudi Arabia into the widening conflict. Yeah, yeah, this is why people are nervous about this expanding pain.
Uh let's see here. Won't be necessary to put boots on the ground. Limited blah blah blah. I don't know that they're going to be able to take over this military dictatorship. I'm I'm not convinced.
we're going to go from supreme leader controlling them the IRGC to uh a controlling them the IRGC to uh a military dictatorship.
What do we got over here? Yeah, here's a refinery getting damaged in Saudi Arabia. See this? State oil behemoth Saudi Aramco yesterday shut shut the country's largest refinery after a drone attack in
largest refinery after a drone attack in the area. Yikes. They also reported intercepting multiple drones drones heading for a US airbase drones drones heading for a US airbase outside the capital.
First time Saudi Arabia was hit. Yeah. So so that's the problem. obviously is you're shutting down these Iran also stopped piping to Turkey. So
uh I want to verify that. Identifier. Hold on. See what this By the way, this morning we did an analysis in on we did an analysis on
Dell. Uh it had Yesterday we did an analysis on Intuit. It had four out of four green flags. And we did an analysis on Dell this morning and it had three red flags and
one green flag. But anyway, so I'm pretty sure But anyway, so I'm pretty sure Iraq has stopped piping oil to Turkey. I Iraq has stopped piping oil to Turkey. I I want to verify that. And then Saudi
I want to verify that. And then Saudi Aramco shut down its largest refinery in Aramco shut down its largest refinery in Saudi Arabia. There we go. Uh yesterday as drones started striking
the US Embassy and flying towards US airbases in Saudi Arabia. towards US airbases in Saudi Arabia. Okay. So let me confirm that
regarding Iraq. Iraq pipeline Turkey Uh the Iraq Turkey pipeline ITP has been
halted due to security concerns. Yes, okay. So hold on. Jack's saying goodbye. Jack!
Uh they're all freaking out out there. Every Everybody's freaking out. Lauren Lauren says Jack didn't earn any Pokémon today. I guess he didn't do his Uh all right. So, um
um we've got Yeah, this is the ITP ITP we've got Yeah, this is the ITP ITP uh halted.
know, as as and then obviously the Strait of Hormuz is is uh uh halted. So, so not great. Not great. >> Uh let's see here. Let's see. Asking not to
are being produced for local consumption. Uh let's see here. Okay. All right. Got it. let's see here. Okay. All right. Got it. Uh okay, so that's not great. Oil rally.
Oh, yeah, the cues keep going. Now, we're at 592 now. Holy smokes. Look at that. So, the trident from hell has begun. This is uh this is the trident right here, right? 1 2 3. Three tests of 595.
Uh we really don't want to close under 595. So, hopefully we can recover and 595. So, hopefully we can recover and get back to 595. Uh Iraq, what is this? Iraq production from
Iraq production from Majnoon oil fields will cut production. Okay, that's per Reuters. Okay. Let me look at that.
Maysan oil fields. For Reuters. Unfortunately, uh market-wise, this is uh this likely
uh market-wise, this is uh this likely stokes uh inflation fears, higher for stokes uh inflation fears, higher for longer, and a lack of rate cuts to support jobs. Um that comes at a precarious
time for the labor market. We really want the labor market to uh sustain its rebound, right? So, that's why we're seeing the yield curve.
that's why we're seeing the yield curve. Uh uh yields yields up uh significantly uh since the start of war on both the 10- and 2-year Treasuries.
notes in the Meet Kevin app. Remember, that is Meet Kevin in the Apple or Android app store. You can get that app for free. And I mean, there's a lot of freaking crap in here, honestly. I mean, you can scroll through this. And a lot
of stuff, a lot of data, a lot of citations. publish that one. There we go. Sometimes I leave it Like sometimes what I'll do is I'll write them as drafts
uh before publishing them, and then I forget to come back and hit publish on Uh I usually don't. That happens pretty rarely. But uh of content in there. And it just goes and goes and goes.
Yeah, okay. Yeah, these are all These are all published. Oh, there's one. What's this one? Oh, okay, yeah. Yeah, I've never finished that one. something else, so that's fine. All right, so anyway,
okay, so Apollo, keep an eye on government credit folks are going to start pointing Yeah, good. Fed can't be inflation about still hot
Fed can't be complacent about still hot inflation. Yeah. inflation. Yeah. Fed Williams though says Let's see here. Schmidt Fed Schmidt don't get I saw this on the
headlines as well complacent on inflation. No mentions on Iran. However, you've got Fed Williams here from New York says that additional rate cuts will be warranted if inflation shows
shows uh Okay, okay, got it. So 2 and 1/2% at the end of 2026.
Okay, so that's interesting. So then you have Williams inflation should fall after year-over-year effects of tariffs ending 2026 at 2.5% and 2027 at 2%. Okay, the
problem with this is uh we keep having uh we keep having unfortunately, we keep having uh new unfortunately, we keep having uh new catalysts to pump up inflation. New or
catalysts to pump up inflation. New or different tariffs. Now we've got uh war different tariffs. Now we've got uh war and oil, uh right? Etc. Uh AI obviously at that one point well, still to some extent you could even say,
"Uh AI and the memory chips, right?" Absolutely wild. I mean, SanDisk has just, you know, killed it. I think the risk-reward for investing in SanDisk is really bad up here. Uh in fact, I left a note for course
Wednesday. It was mid last week. I said, "Set a trailing stop for for um SanDisk." And uh you know, I think there's a lot of
member live streams, mind you. But, it was somewhere around uh Wednesday of And I said, I left the note in the Alpha report. I said, "Set a trailing stop for SanDisk." And if you look, this stock since last
week has fallen uh let's see here. 695 20%. A 20% decline at SanDisk. It is, in my
opinion, very undesirable to own it at these levels. Uh we uh we were fundamentally very bullish on it over here in this sort of like valley right here, I call it. The 200s, the low 200s, we were very bullish
But, you all already know if you are part of the Meet Kevin membership. But, otherwise, uh if you're not, I I still remind you about this caution over here. long time. Same thing with Dell. I mean, we did the analysis on Dell this
morning. And uh Well, like I said, they've got three red flags and only one green. All right, a little bit of a green candle here, a bit little bit of a green candle here, a bit of a recovery.
All right. In the meantime, so given the lack of second-round effects and well-anchored expectations, I expect tariffs will largely have one-off effects. Right.
one-off effects. Right. So, is Is possible um war inflation de-anchors
there is yes, right? Not great.
>> All right, given the full impact of tariffs yet to be felt blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. All right. Fine.
oil rally builds, staggering Middle East war jolts. Air cancellations top 12,000. I mean, we cancel 10,000 when we get bad weather in So, I mean, yeah, it's a lot, but still.
Record redemption over here at Blackstone. This was about that This at Blackstone. This was about that This was 7.9% in redemptions. We saw that. Uh let's go see what This is the market
live blog. S&P is almost down 2 and 1/2% hovering near session lows. We're in for a painful 18 to 24 months as private credit confronts a similar cash crunch that private equity funds
cash crunch that private equity funds have been enduring. Soros says that. have been enduring. Soros says that. Ah, interesting. That's uh very interesting. Uh let's see here.
Uh let's see here. Private credit. Let's slap that in here. Bloomberg uh Soros on private credit. So, they're basically forecasting that private credit crunch could last,
you know, 6 to 12 I mean, 18 to 24 months. 18 to 24 months as a liquidity months. 18 to 24 months as a liquidity crunch is uh a long time. Okay.
I guess some of this some of this here should be uh Fed speak. So, let's pull that out of here. And then that way you can sort search by categories as well if you go through the
Meat Kevin app. You can search that by categories. I usually like writing this when I'm walking on the treadmill. It's actually a great way to do it. We'll redemptions. Some of the structures are going to come under pressure. The need
return capital and drive secondary shares. Yeah, violent rotation. Uh this won't be a couple day event.
There will be a correction in private markets, but it will be no different Again, he harkens back to the software example. If 30% of your portfolio's in impacted by technology, you're not you have not been a good risk manager.
credit here. So, let's take a look at this. this. Rowan on private credit. I'll find out from where they are. There will be a correction in
There will be a correction in private product. can have risk Oh, from Apollo.
have risk Oh, from Apollo. Uh from Apollo. Uh from Apollo. Okay.
Accommodative cycle and credit. Jamie Dimon said inflation could be the the skunk at the party for the economy. Yeah, I I agree with that. I mean Jamie Yeah, I I agree with that. I mean Jamie Dimon was talking yesterday about how
uh you know the the economy is fine and markets are euphoric, right? Uh so Jamie Dimon yesterday
uh mark uh economy is fine and markets are euphoric. is fine and markets are euphoric. Inflation could be the stunk skunk. Skunk at the party today. Uh yeah. Like that somehow that probably
Uh yeah. Like that somehow that probably has to reconcile, right? rebound here. Look at this. I've got actually three candles here and another three right here. Trying to rebound, trying to get back to that 595.
Pretty important. Mark Rowan. Oh, okay. Thank you for that. All right. Let's slap that in to here.
Mark. Thank you. Oh yeah, there it is. Apollo's Mark Rowan. Haha. All right, that's on private credit. Blackstone, that was the 5.9%.
been above 5%. Every time we've met them. Every time we've met them. Let's see here.
credit. Well, what they're really trying to do was get more investors to hold the bag and diversify the risk, right? billions of dollars in market cap have been lost over guarding Oh, and and
speaking of the rise of risk in private credit markets have more retail have Right. Yeah, I love it when they always talk about this is about confidence, trust, and education. Yeah, you just need to
educate the shareholders. Then they won't sell your bags. Yeah, whatever, won't sell your bags. Yeah, whatever, bro. Stupid.
selling your stock that's tanking. And then guys, guys, guys, let me educate you. Uh look at this. Blue Owl is now down 7% Uh look at this. Blue Owl is now down 7% again. Uh it's down under 10 bucks now.
again. Uh it's down under 10 bucks now. Just hit our lowest levels. Uh actually, I think ever. Oh, no, that's not true. Since Oh, since '23. I mean, the fund has grown a lot since then.
as well. Man, I hate it when the Grand Exchange dumps. Sunny says, "Why is gold down so much?" Well, gold topped out on meme euphoria. Uh we called the top of the gold uh and silver day. You can actually see the
video publicly. It was my reaction to Kevin O'Leary being chosen. I said this Kevin O'Leary being chosen. I said this This marks the top for um gold and silver. And sure enough, it did.
Uh what I'd like to see right now, got Just taking me a moment. I really want to see what's going on with the uh Oracle credit default swaps. That would be really juicy to find right
now. Uh Uh, Uh Uh, let's see here. Oracle, so I just got to get signed in here.
>> [sighs] >> Let's see here. Boom skitty boom skitty boom skitty boom. >> [sighs and gasps] >> Da da da da
See if I can find him. Oracle, it's been a minute since I've looked. Five five year Yeah, that'll do.
And then I need a chart to recover. Okay, we're at 166 That is the uh, highest level
yet this cycle on uh, Oracle CDS. Credit default swaps, right? That's your the the premium paid for insurance
the the premium paid for insurance against the default of Oracle thanks to its uh, AI data center exposure. Not that uh, Dell has anything useful to
Not that uh, Dell has anything useful to say about um, Margins are trash. Okay,
can I get this crap to load? Here we go. And come on come on come on, come on. Come on, come on. I want to show the photo.
Whatever. It's right here. This is what it looks like right now. even more as as the war has as as the war has has begun.
you know, people would try to hedge somewhere else, but no. They're actually No problem. All right. Let's see what else we have here. Banks implementing AI tools, blah blah blah, blah blah, line up for today,
blah blah blah. Okay. All right. Boring. Boring. Okay. Back to the front we go. Okay, so we checked at this. Canada is investing in critical
minerals. That's cute. getting tougher. Well, duh, that's what I said.
The committee's not going to go for a rate cut for this guy. opposite direction. Several policy makers have voiced
skepticism over the ideas underpinning Warsh's vision for lower rates. Warsh's vision for lower rates. Of course.
Uh I mean, this is not really a surprise. You you still can't get back to 2%. This is actually a great chart cuz it really shows you uh that pick up. We're really not not cooling towards 2% anymore. We've essentially stalled on
inflationary progress, which is not great. Arrow. It's to giant red It's to giant red Look at that. That's no That's no bueno.
line. Let's see if we could draw like a trend or something. Uh it's probably something like that. No bueno. Not good. This This is going the wrong
This is not good. I'll slap that under my little Fed Federal Reserve, which is neither Federal nor
Reserve, which is neither Federal nor Reserve. All right, here we go. All right. uh justify lower rates. Basically, an AI
productivity boom is what his argument is for for rate cuts. Which that's cute. is for for rate cuts. Which that's cute. Oh, rejecting 595. Come on, step bro.
Don't leave me stuck in the dishwasher again. Come on, man. 22 cents away from 595. I guess it's 25 cents away from 595.03 is actually where my line is.
Leaving me stuck. Hanging Hanging halfway out of the dishwasher. This is no fun. Uh
know. Have you tried unplugging it and plugging it back in again? plugging it back in again? Uh Okay. So, let's see here.
you're using your teachable email address. I think that's the thing The number one thing people screw up is they use the wrong email. And you're like, stuff?" Well, did you use the same email you signed up with? No. Well, right
then. >> [laughter] all right. Yeah, [snorts] there there we got here. You can always email us if you still problems. >> Email staff@meetkevin.com.
prices. Oh, did they did they actually release the new computers? Apple updated its new lines. Apple introduced the new models Tuesday. OH, DAMN, BRO. And they're raising the prices. Yo, step bro, what the H E
prices. Yo, step bro, what the H E double hockey stick? MacBook Pro Oh, double hockey stick? MacBook Pro Oh, wow. Come on, Apple. Raising the prices on us. Oh, yeah, look at that.
Pre-order tomorrow. Available starting 3/11. That's cute. I wonder how much the MacBook Air weighs versus the Pro. Uh let's go find out. It's always fun to kind of like Studio XDR display. I don't
think it's a rip-off. I mean, I I I I know cuz I have it. >> Not here. It's in a different office. But uh how much is the 16-in going to cost you these days? You know, yeah, everybody wants an extra couple inches.
So, I don't know. What does it cost? The the nano texture display is actually worth it on these. Actually worth it cuz it's only 150 So worth.
Uh wow, dude. You're knocking on the door of a 4,000 If you max this crap out, you're sitting on a 4,000 dollar laptop. What the hell? 4,500
dollars. Oh my gosh, bro. Dude, these things have gotten pricey. That's for a maxed out M16. That's for a maxed out M16. Now, what if you go for the 14 maxed
out? If you max out the 14, you're still at 4,200 bucks. So, it's a $500 dude. $500 for an extra 2 in. weigh? So, this is going to be like a 3-lb laptop.
Uh no specs? Bro. I want specs. I want specs. Should be under text Yeah, there it is.
Should be under text Yeah, there it is. Uh let's go see. So, we want weight. Uh let's go see. So, we want weight. So, this is 4.7 lb. Oh my lord. 4.7 lb, bro, that's heavy. You put that thing in a backpack, you're going to
something. Or just back pain. Now, if you compare that to the tech specs on the cute little MacBook Air, let's go find out.
So, the MacBook Air, this has got to be the MacBook Air, this has got to be under 2 lb. This has got to be like 1.7. Wait. 2.7, it's still heavy. Oh, come on, man.
Didn't they used to have an 11-in? Yeah, oh, it's cuz it's 13 now. I feel like the 11-in MacBook Air was like if I remember correctly. MacBook Air weight. Yeah, it was like 10 years ago.
years ago. Uh see? 11-in MacBook Air weighed 2.3 lb. Bro, that thing was so light. It was so beautiful. It was so great. They just They just don't make them like they used to.
They uh raise the price and break your back. So, we're not just going to break the bank, we're going to break your back while we're at it. backpack." You know, I carry one in a backpack all the time, and I actually
just got these this thing for skiing. Right next to my dig jack out of a snow well shovel, I got one of these. This is a uh uh it's like a back liner. So, so you
put this on at the back of the backpack, so that way if you fall, it uh it you don't break your back with a laptop in there. So, um supposedly it works. I don't know, this little piece of rubber is like 30 bucks,
which seems like a scam, but whatever. Gemini told me to buy it. Gemini told me to buy it. I got scammed, dude. I got scammed. All right.
Is it time for another pack? I think it's time for another pack. Another pack of cigarette. No, I don't smoke. Yet. All right, here we go.
Let's rip one more. All right. We're going to rip it. All right, what's this one? I think this
What do you think it's going to be? Fire? Let's see what we got. All right. See what we got today while from Look away from the pain of the market.
Look away from the pain of the market. We got Ooh, that's not a good sign. Air Tangela. You know, some of the art of the new ones is pretty good. You got to give them credit, you know, they're they're doing pretty good art.
Charmander, anybody want to see a redesign of the original? Diglett. You know, this one always looks a little sus if you ask me. Just a little sus.
Diglett Team Rocket Team Rocket All right. And we have nothing. Another loser pack for Kevin.
It's all right. No problem. We'll go back to work. What were we doing? I don't know. Back to work we go.
My good old journal. What do they have here? Second strike hits Saudi Embassy. Oh, we've been hit again.
Oh, we've been hit again. >> [snorts] >> Uh twice on Tuesday causing part of the roof to collapse. The second strike.
smoke. Is that like a law office or what the hell is a Chancery? A court. Oh. Okay. Well, I was close. Embassy has been struck by two UAVs. Uh
that's unfortunate. You know what we need? Ah I'm going to tea bag really quick.
Ah tea bag for this market. Ah Some matcha matcha green scam, that's
I'm going to start calling this green tea the green new scam. All this powder going everywhere. I'm going to end up getting cancer from the dust inhalation of the matcha.
This is ridiculous, man. You just can't get anything right these days. All right, the tea is brewing. So, let's see here.
Iranian drones and missiles challenge stretched US forces. Yeah, this is that's a photo of one of those Kuwait jets crashing. The friendly fire incident. But anyway, uh I think this is where they talk about the money.
About the drones. Iran stockpiles uh of drones pose a formidable threat to the US. Well, we're just going to run out of weapons to take all these crap puppies down. You know?
anything that has an American flag on it staff warned about risk blah blah blah. bucks. You know, and you could send fighter jets, but you know, now we've had fighter jets crash.
>> Like, hey man. He's like Dude, imagine. >> [laughter]
fighter pilot just lands and you know, lands by you. It's kind of crazy, honestly. I feel bad for the guy. He'd be like, can somebody for the guy. He'd be like, can somebody take me home, please?
a fussy. Jeremy says, "Come on, Kevin. Stick to stocks and finance and skip opening Pokémon cards. How boring are you? You got to be so boring at parties." Freaking weenie baby bitching about the
30 seconds of the Pokémon pack where I can blow my money and pull nothing. munitions. uh director of warfare and other things
uh blah blah blah uh in addition to shooting missiles out of the skies, dispersing aircraft, blah blah blah. blah blah. Blah blah blah, whatever.
What else, baby? Risk firm sees differences between US and Israel pro stocks face new pressures, pressures, inflation, LNG exports skyrocketing,
Iran's regime is down but it isn't out. That's also true. Still haven't kicked them out. Fight above five, blah blah blah. Jack Dorsey blamed AI, skeptics aren't buying it.
I don't really believe it either. You know, I I think uh I I don't think Square I mean, think about how many people they fired at uh Twitter when Elon took over. You know, isn't it possible that this
You know, isn't it possible that this guy just sucks at hiring? block lords, which is not how I read it the first time I read that. I have never
I don't even want to click on it. Block lords, like I'm afraid to click on that. Anyway, uh so isn't it isn't it possible
that this guy just sucks at running a business? I don't know. I mean, look at it. It's literally been bouncing off of 49 for how long? Look at the bounce. Thanks for the $2, Omega. Look at this uh $2 I got 2018 $49 bounce. 2020
basically $49 bounce. What do I got over here? 2022 $49 What do I got over here? 2022 $49 bounce. What do I got over here? 2023. >> [snorts] >> What do we got over here? 2025, $49
bounce. What do we got over here? $49 bounce. It appears to me buying Block at $49 feels somewhat safe, but I don't know. last time I looked at their financials. I don't want to say never, but I feel
their financials. So, I don't know. But, isn't it possible that the guy just sucks at running a business? Uh maybe I'm losing my mind. Anyway, so the Q's can't even get under
five or over uh uh 595. So, what the hell? Israel's beam, Iron Beam, was used for the first time in March to intercept rockets. That's pretty cool. So, those would be like high-energy
uh beams, basically, of of of light or laser. And uh goal is to try to take down ballistic missiles or uh drones.
missiles or uh drones. Uh yeah. Yeah. Hey, Kevin, wondering since you sold a plane, you have to pay Hell yeah, I already paid that tax. >> Uh pay your taxes, my friend. Pay your tax bill. I paid I paid my I don't know
what was it, like $5 million or whatever in taxes, maybe more. I can't remember well. So, I don't I can't remember. Well, it was it was a big wire. Uh but anyway, Iran is shooting some of the
world's busiest airports. That's a problem. All right, what else do we have? Current home equity loan rates. You know, I'm finding a lot Well, I mean, recently they've popped off, but a lot of people
are going for HELOCs, you know? And this is by the way the most [ __ ] thing you could do is debt consolidation with a HELOC. a HELOC. [ __ ] Don't do that.
equity line of credit cuz they're like, "Oh, I'm saving money. I'm doing the financially smart thing." And then guess what? Then they go swipe the credit card again. And then they have twice as much debt. It's dumb.
Uh like the beauty about your credit cards getting maxed out is you can't go in any more debt. Vail cuts ski pass prices for Gen Z skiers. Well, Vail's jacked up prices so damn much and they got so many people
20%. They have so many people these resorts now. It's kind of annoying. Like if you go to a Vail resort, there's so many damn people at uh these these companies or at these ski resorts. It's insane. Like you'd
You're better off going to like a you know, a Deer Valley or something like that, which is more expensive, but at least you can like breathe. Crazy. Deer Valley's great. And they just expanded. I think they had the
largest expansion in North America of any ski resort. Pretty remarkable. Ivana Trump's Manhattan townhouse sells at a big discount. Ivana Trump's
place sells at a big discount. 14 million. Oh, it fetched 14 million. Significantly less than the 26.5 million dollar asking price. Ivana Trump Oh, Ivana. Well, they got to get They got to get the you know, oh my
god. This is disgusting. They got to get all the leopard off. Like somebody's got rebuild it. Yeah, how you got to scrape all this crap off? Ew. What is all this trash?
Red floor? That looks like crap, too. This looks like grandma's house. What the hell is this? They got like a whole mural over here. >> [clears throat]
>> Who sits at that random corner to play piano? What a crazy place to put a grand piano. What the hell? Man, that looks like a face. I don't even want to like not the kind
of face you want looking back at you. That's scary. The carpet doesn't even look clean. Carpet looks dated. That's crazy. What the hell is this? Holy crap. Sorry, I I shouldn't say those words. This is the
It's pink. It was like a pink marble on the countertop to match the pink on the to know. I don't want to know. Man, [clears throat] that's nasty.
eyeballs or something. Get some matcha going. whatever. Piloting AI tools isn't cool anymore.
Uh let's see here. let's see here. Uh Trump Trump Steve okay. Roku's new ad deal Coca-Cola blah blah blah. Iran conflict delays shipping return to Suez
Canal. Yeah, it's not great. shrug this off blah blah blah. AutoZone stock drops after earnings winter storm
weighed on sales. Okay, whatever. Her her Alister boring boring and Zuck bought a place in Florida. Yeah, that's cute. How's the Times doing?
The New York Times Nobody knows liberals better than the New York Times. Actually, that's not true. That's not true. There's one that's actually left-leaning and bad. The New York Times isn't that bad.
trash. It's this one. It's this one. This one right here. Nobody knows trash better than the LA Times. >> [laughter]
York Times. So, uh New York Times US closes two Gulf embassies, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Makes sense. Arabia and Kuwait. Makes sense. Uh Trump gambles his presidency.
Well, labor secretary top aides are forced out. Wait, right before the jobs report? Are you kidding me? Did we hit 595 again? Oh, look at that. We're touching 595. How cute. What the
hell is this? Two top aides to the labor secretary were forced out Monday night after an internal investigation. Oh, man. They're rigging the numbers so bad, man.
bad, man. Oh, no. told labor leaders to fire them. Yep. See, the White House is rigging the
numbers, man. The White House is literally they fired now the top three people, basically. Top person and the two people below that. That's crazy.
drank on the job while she was having an affair with a security member. Right. And she used the department resources for personal trips. Right. I think she was just watching what Kash Patel does. Oh, they are cooking the books. Somebody
says OpenDoor is offering a 499 mortgage. Yeah, who cares? They're screw up their uh their margins even more. Open door is a [ __ ] company. They're not going to survive the next recession.
recession. Buying down mortgage rates is basically like a new construction strategy, but new construction actually has margins. New construction has 20 to 30% margins. Open door has like 8% margins. They
don't have money to buy down mortgage rates. They're total morons and they're objectively objectively running the business to the ground. How's that answer for you? It's not a buy down deal. Yeah, it is.
And mortgage rates just went up again. You know, maybe you're looking at last week's pricing. But the 10-year Treasury rate now is at 4.075.
>> So what do we have here? Look at that. Breaking through. Breaking through 5.95. We're coming back, baby. We're coming back. We're going to build back better. We're going to build back like we've never built back before.
Yeah, nobody knows building back quite like I do. >> [sighs] >> Let's see what else we have here. I I I like how the argument this one person in the chat I like the classic
argument. Oh, well, you know, Trump might be cooking the books at the labor department, but but they were they were cooking the books before that as well. I don't know about that. I The numbers always get revised, but that doesn't
mean they're cooking the books. They get revised because it takes 90 days to collect. You got to have some faith for the independent agencies and the economists. Now you're literally firing people at these these agencies
that are just trying to put together the data with the information they have and you're putting the fear of God into them that if they don't put print a good number, they're going to get fired. That That is objectively rigging. Like
heart full stop, that is rigging. If you start firing people for bad numbers, that is rigging the economic data. Guaranteed, full stop, riggage. Okay. Now, how much rigging was there before? We don't know. There could have been
but I would argue that if there was rigging, there's less rigging There was rigging, there's less rigging There was less rigging then than there was now. Because previously, you didn't get fired for printing bad economic data. Stupid.
Like that's a great way to screw up the economy, but whatever. All right. Nobody knows. Nobody knows rigging quite like uh Well, we're not going to it. Uh
Somebody says you're offending the trash. What, the snowboarder? Yeah, that we saw. Was there anything else in this? No. Oh, yeah, what was this?
staff. Oh, I totally believe that. They just put a figurehead in that is going to bow down to Trump. That's the thing. Like these people, Laurie Chavez, let's see what her background is.
Probably wearing knee pads for Donald Trump. is. American politician who has served since
2025. Wait, you've been a politician for a year, and now you're the labor secretary? Yeah, okay. Well, actually since 2023. Served as a representative for the creation of
and as a mayor. Oh, she was a mayor of Happy Valley, Oregon from 2011 to 2019 with a population of 23,000 people. Right. Okay. All right. And then she became a representative. Got it.
became a representative. Got it. Okay. in business administration, so she's not an economist. And let's see here.
blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah competitive bid nomination. Trump announced nomination for
Secretary of Labor. The Teamsters Union endorsed the nomination. Teamsters General President O'Brien said, "As as a daughter of a Teamster, Lori knows the importance of carrying a union card. Uh-huh. Right. Okay. Yeah, that's all it
guess. All right. Sworn in after the prior person Erica Sworn in after the prior person Erica was fired after the July jobs report.
complaint accusing her of drinking in the workplace. Oh, IT WAS HER. OH. OH. Look at this. Chavez
So So these I think they issued a whistleblower complaint saying she was a slimebag, basically. basically. Oh.
the labor department after at least two of the department's female employees alleged he had sexually assaulted them. What? What? >> [laughter]
running like this lady is now running the labor the labor department. She took staff to a strip club. What?
drinking on the job, her husband is banned from the labor department for sexual assault, allegedly all this stuff, right? I guess this isn't working anymore. Okay, fine. And uh
and she has no economic background at all, but she's got the knee pads to get the job with Donald Trump. That's hilarious, dude. Wow. What freaking BS, man?
What a freaking fraud. Ay yay yay. Oh, wait. Whatever, man. It's the office in real life. >> [laughter] >> Somebody says, "Is she hiring?" Man,
you know, you got to be pretty down on your on your luck if you're asking if this If you want to go to a strip club with this lady, bro, that's Nah, man.
Nah. How old is she? How old is she? 57? Come on, man. we're about to qualify for social security here. I'm not going to a strip
All right. So, anyway, where were we? So, [snorts] what hotels are telling us about the American economy? American economy? Let's see here.
Uh let's see here. Judging from airlines, hotels, and rental car prices, America's hospitality industry is doing fine. But beneath the surface
worrying economic trends. Uh-huh, increasingly wealthy were spending on that. They're keeping everything going. Uh-huh. Uh and finally is highlighting how much
economic activity depends on AI. Luxury is where the money's being made, daily rates $500. Uh-huh. RevPAR The figure gets progressively lower for cheaper types of hotel. Meanwhile,
foreign visitors who spend multiples of what domestic travelers do have been Ah, yeah, that makes sense. Visits by Canadians down 16%. Wow. Las Vegas visitor numbers are down 7 and 1/2% largest drop since the '70s in the
outside the pandemic. Wow. That's crazy. >> [snorts]
Just some of them. Just some of them, please. Please, we got to document some please. Please, we got to document some of the notes. section over here. So, we'll go we'll call this What are we going to call
Hotels uh okay, so basically luxury hotels RevPAR at hotels
$500 and up luxury up 9% year-over-year. And then However,
falling for lower class hotels. We've got class hotels. We've got Canadian visits down 16.7% Canadian visits down 16.7% year-over-year. And then we've got Vegas
Vegas down 7.5% in tourism largest drop since 1970 outside pandemic.
Yep, yep, yep, yep, yep, yep, yep. um basically richer spending rich locals, rich Americans are spending international
international showing up less. Yeah, I feel like we kind of knew that. Wait, is suffering one r two?
Oh, oh, it is one. Okay, I spelled it right. It's giving me the red underlying I guess I'm not adding enough grammatical words in my notes, but they can suck it. They can suck it more than this BLS
lady. How are we doing? Oh, look, we've come back a little bit. So this lady here. Lori Chavez
De Reemer. De Reemer. Oh, she's the De Reemer. She's not the Reemer, the De Was a mayor for 8 years of a town in Was it Ohio?
for 8 years of a town in Was it Ohio? Oregon. Good thing checked. In Happy Valley, Oregon, town of 23K.
uh for 8 years and Okay, now accused of drinking on job Okay, now accused of drinking on job and taking staff to strip clubs at BLS.
Uh her husband is banned from the um what's it called? Uh BLS for assaulting two people allegedly, right?
Uh sexually sexually Allegedly. And then we have Where was the New York Times piece? It was right And then we have um
she [clears throat] replaced the prior BLS chair BLS chair uh who was fired in July after a bad uh who was fired in July after a bad jobs report by um was fired by Trump
after a bad jobs report. Uh she's a Republican and became a Uh she's a Republican and became a congresswoman in 2023. Oh, is it one word? Well, I guess it is one word. I didn't know that.
Okay, and uh no economic background. That's that's who's running the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Uh now two top aides now two top aides have been fired. Uh some accuse her of being an absentee
accuse her of being an absentee secretary as well. It's bad when the job secretary can't even show up for her own job. even show up for her own job. Hey, look at that recovery.
Hey, look at that recovery. That's good. I'm glad we got 595 back. That's good. I'm glad we got 595 back. Getting 595 back is pretty important. Good. Still a painful day though, huh? 1.6%
What a weird floor. 191 is what we got down to. All right. So, we checked out this crap. Ivanka Trump, that was trash.
Ivanka Trump, that was trash. Uh, let's see. Hey, uh, layoffs. Spur workers who want a career change,
but few may do it. Mistakes were made. Immigration crackdown. Google employees call for AI military limits. Uh-huh. Oil surges second day. Blah, blah, blah, blah. All right, I think we got it.
How are we doing on oil? Is it recovering yet? No, still up 8%. Gold recovering yet? No, still up 8%. Gold and silver still down. Bitcoin's at 68. Why it was at 666 not that long ago. And then yields are settling a little
bit. How's our 10-2? It's at 55. This is actually coming down as I think the markets are pricing in a potential stronger economic outcome. Uh, IMF is now reporting that they're going to look through higher energy
going to look through higher energy prices. Uh, the good old look through. prices. Uh, the good old look through. All right, let's write that down. IMF The International Monetary Fund
We will look through a short-term impact on energy prices
too early to determine uh economic impact from secure security developments. Uh IMF will be looking at physical damage to infrastructure and tourism.
to infrastructure and tourism. Potential to be very impactful.
Here we have Iran parts of Tehran on fire after strikes and Natanz was just hit. Uh no nuclear radiation
detected. Uh following strikes. That's good. Okay. Uh oh, here we go on the IMF. Another headline just came in. Uh they said if prolonged uncertainty
Uh they said if prolonged uncertainty from war persists, I would expect from war persists, I would expect central banks to be cautious. Yeah, aka higher for longer. Oh, yeah.
Don't you know we're going to go a longer today? Keep it up. Hey, look at Intuit 429. Dude, Intuit's had a run, man, since the bottom over here.
Still a juicy price over here. We really got to Yeah, we're breaking out of 424 now, which is great. D Reemer, what the F is that? I know, What a crazy name for, you You somebody who's got a
husband sexually assaulting other people apparently, allegedly. Which is pretty crazy if you think about it. Cuz cuz the guy's last name's probably De Reemer, unless it was Chavez. I'm not sure.
sure. It was probably De Reemer. got to go Reem somewhere else. I don't know. I I We're going too far here. Too far. Too far.
nobody cares. Russia gets a chance to boost its oil income. Yeah, that's true. Ares CEO says getting larger private credit could make sense for the firm. Oh, yeah. Go buy the dip.
>> I guess the target consumers are doing better. We did a lot of analysis on this back at 85 bucks. We really like the 5% dividend. Strong profit guidance shows Target is making progress
Target is making progress following 3 years of weak results. Store refresh, new technology, trying to fend off competitors, small increase in comp sales. Wow, new CEO.
Yeah, we'll see about that. Awfully convenient right when the new CEO comes in, all of a sudden everything's better. But, you know, good for them. Nice recovery here, line to line almost
80 to 118. And then if you look look at Circle too. Dude, Circle's really taking off. Really, really taking off.
love you all. And uh we'll see you. talented guy. Kevin is somebody we consider to Kevin is fantastic, too.
Kevin is much more interested, than most people by the way, in the balance sheet. and I think that we we we'd all be very lucky to have him. They don't know what the [ __ ] they're doing.