[0:02] Well, well, well, well, well, well. Holy
[0:07] smokes. It looks like that JP Morgan
[0:11] deal or announcement was on to
[0:13] something. This is really weird. And I
[0:15] think this is why you want to be
[0:17] subscribed to the channel. But
[0:18] yesterday, we literally talked about how
[0:21] JP Morgan had a piece that literally
[0:24] argued position for an imminent deal.
[0:28] Now, I presumed that was probably
[0:30] because the Pakistani delegation had
[0:32] just landed in Thrron. Uh, and they
[0:36] essentially argued by they said buy
[0:38] airports, which I I was wondering if
[0:40] they meant like the airlines and sell
[0:41] oil, but they actually even looked at
[0:44] insider trading bets or maybe not
[0:45] necessarily insider trading bets, but
[0:47] somebody making some big money bets,
[0:48] right? Uh, and they're like, "This is
[0:50] quite interesting. a massive options bet
[0:53] on Tuesday that would see a $129 million
[0:58] payout if Brent fell to $90 per barrel
[1:02] by Tuesday
[1:05] was placed. So, literally somebody on
[1:07] Tuesday placed a oneweek call option bet
[1:11] and they would stand to profit $129
[1:14] million if oil fell to $90 per barrel by
[1:18] Tuesday, the day after um Memorial Day.
[1:22] Well, here we are today. Donald Trump
[1:25] has just announced that an agreement
[1:27] with Iran has quote largely been
[1:30] negotiated and the straight of Hormuz is
[1:32] expected to reopen. Now, we'll believe
[1:37] it when we see it, but we have been
[1:39] seeing JP Morgan has also been arguing
[1:42] it that the blockade in Hormuz has not
[1:46] been fully enforced.
[1:48] See, there are signs that something is
[1:50] happening. The US Hormuz blockade is
[1:54] clearly not being enforced. And we just
[1:57] got a truth social post from Donald
[1:59] Trump. I'm in the Oval Office at the
[2:01] White House where we just had a very
[2:03] good call uh with the president of uh
[2:06] Saudi Arabia, the UAE. Uh you've got a
[2:10] bunch of other folks from Qatar in here.
[2:12] I mean, boy, he went through and listed
[2:14] from Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, and
[2:19] uh well, I mean, dele negotiators uh
[2:22] from Iran all related to a memorandum of
[2:26] understanding regarding peace. an
[2:29] agreement has largely been negotiated
[2:31] subject to finalization which in
[2:33] fairness like every deal that Donald
[2:35] Trump does is like a concept of a plan
[2:39] and then it's sort of like it still has
[2:40] to be finalized by Congress or their
[2:42] leaders or this that or whatever right
[2:44] so like the market trades off the
[2:47] concept of the plan
[2:49] uh but anyway an agreement has largely
[2:51] been negotiated subject to finalization
[2:53] between the United States of America and
[2:55] Iran as well as various other countries
[2:57] as listed
[2:59] Separately, I had a call with BB of
[3:01] Israel which like likewise went very
[3:04] well. Final aspects and details of the
[3:06] deal are currently being discussed and
[3:08] will be announced shortly. In addition
[3:11] to many other elements of the agreement,
[3:13] the straight of Hormuz will be opened.
[3:16] Thank you for your attention to this
[3:18] matter. This is actually huge because it
[3:21] it means what we heard yesterday and
[3:24] again this is why you want to be
[3:25] subscribed to the channel. Yesterday we
[3:27] pointed out that JP Morgan had this
[3:29] piece arguing, hey, prepare for an
[3:32] imminent deal. Sell oil, buy airports.
[3:36] Again, I was a little confused by that
[3:37] whole, you know, by airports part, but
[3:39] whatever. The point is, they were right.
[3:42] Uh, and so what we have here is uh
[3:45] apparently uh this uh you know, catalyst
[3:48] that could actually potentially push uh
[3:52] a lot of our stock market to even
[3:54] greater all-time highs. Now, what I
[3:56] think we want to pay attention to this
[3:58] week is, first of all, obviously, we
[4:00] expect oil to come down sharply. And as
[4:03] oil comes down sharply, we're going to
[4:05] expect to see bonds, bond yields come
[4:08] down sharply. That's really, really
[4:10] important. In fact, I was just reading,
[4:12] where did I put it? I was just reading
[4:14] Oh. Oh, I threw it away. Uh, of course,
[4:16] I threw it away. I was literally just
[4:18] reading Barren and uh they've had a
[4:21] whole section in Barons about how bond
[4:23] yields are moving into the danger zone.
[4:26] Uh and I'm like ah well we're a deal
[4:28] away from bond yields collapsing. They
[4:31] talked about Nvidia needing a new big
[4:34] plan. They got to stop focusing on just
[4:36] the hyperscalers even though they keep
[4:38] getting more and more of their business
[4:39] from hyperscalers which is pretty
[4:41] remarkable. I think it's like 70. No,
[4:43] I'm sorry. 55% of their revenue is
[4:45] coming from um from the hyperscalers,
[4:48] right? And then Jensen's trying to like
[4:50] get everybody focused on um uh you know,
[4:52] oh well, smaller companies, Neoclouds,
[4:54] they're important, too. Not as Yeah,
[4:57] bond yields are heading towards the
[4:59] danger zone. See, I knew it was in here.
[5:01] So, like you literally have a lot of
[5:04] doom and gloom about how high bond
[5:07] yields have been going. And the big
[5:10] thing that we want to watch for now is
[5:12] bond yields escaping the danger zone.
[5:16] Now we could literally do the absolute
[5:18] opposite. See, if we get oil that
[5:21] actually crashes, which it probably
[5:23] will. It'll probably I don't think it'll
[5:24] go all the way down to like 60 even with
[5:26] the straightfor because it's still going
[5:28] to take some time to repair some of that
[5:29] damage and refill stock piles. Stock
[5:31] piles are like mega mega low right now.
[5:34] But I think we'll probably, you know,
[5:35] that whoever placed that call option
[5:37] that's going to be getting $123 million
[5:40] of profit because they happen to make a
[5:43] bet in a oneweek call option that's
[5:45] going to profit them over $100 million
[5:47] that, you know, a deal would be signed
[5:49] this weekend. Crazy. Um, certainly not
[5:52] insider information. I actually think
[5:54] they're right on their target that oil
[5:55] is likely to fall just below 90. I
[5:57] wouldn't be surprised if it's like 85 or
[5:59] 80 at the beginning of the week. But
[6:01] what that does, it means well what it
[6:04] does is it means that the top of bonds
[6:07] is where we've been saying. You've been
[6:09] watching the channel, you've been
[6:10] talking about or you've been listening
[6:12] to me say 457
[6:15] is the peak. Go away. 457 is the peak.
[6:19] And we've seen that, you know, four
[6:20] times here historically. We're about to
[6:23] set a new peak for this. So, you have to
[6:25] think what's probably going to do really
[6:27] well on Tuesday when the market reopens.
[6:30] Well, honestly, some consumer stocks
[6:32] could do really well, but also those
[6:33] interest rate sensitives. If you look at
[6:35] some of the companies that are really
[6:37] sensitive to interest rates, total crap.
[6:41] I mean, you've seen uh the mortgage
[6:43] codes get destroyed. You've seen some of
[6:45] the autos get destroyed. There are a lot
[6:47] of interest rate places uh or even
[6:49] housing related stocks, whether it's
[6:51] Home Depot or Lowe's or whatever. There
[6:53] are plenty of stocks you could think of.
[6:55] Ask AI about your favorite mortgage, you
[6:57] know, interest rate sensitive stocks.
[6:59] You don't have to ask me, but a lot of
[7:00] them have just gotten decimated through
[7:03] this extra surge of inflation. We just
[7:06] had bargain on Friday talk about, yeah,
[7:10] you know, I also am in favor of removing
[7:12] easing bias language and considering
[7:14] hikes. All of that now goes away, which
[7:18] is really, really bullish for the
[7:21] market. In fact, there was another thing
[7:23] in Barren here that I thought was really
[7:25] bullish. This one I saved on my desk.
[7:28] This was really cool. Uh, so take a look
[7:32] at this. A smarter a smart way to size
[7:36] up the labor market. See, this is why
[7:37] you got to read the newspaper, right?
[7:39] Uh, I'll let that come out. Smart way to
[7:41] size up the labor market. See this?
[7:43] Look, it's old black and white print.
[7:45] How pretty. Uh, okay. So it says here,
[7:49] one way you can historically tell how
[7:51] strong the labor market is is by
[7:54] comparing your prime age worker, the
[7:56] worker between 35 to 44 and comparing
[8:00] that to the broader unemployment rate.
[8:03] uh and if the 35 to 30 or uh 35 to 44
[8:08] increases by 1 percentage point overall
[8:11] unemployment rate follows a month and 3
[8:14] months later uh 3 months later you see
[8:16] this stair stepping up. The same thing
[8:18] happens in reverse. Well right now the
[8:21] 35 to 44 range is sitting at just 3.1%
[8:25] unemployment which is way lower than the
[8:27] official 4.3% we have. So it's actually
[8:29] a bullish signal. So now here are the
[8:32] things that you want to think about uh
[8:34] on Tuesday. Okay, on Tuesday uh with
[8:38] Hormuz opening or concept of opening,
[8:41] right? Okay. Uh oil down probably to 80
[8:46] to 85. Uh the uh insider Dbag uh who's
[8:53] profiting 127 mil on uh oil options
[8:58] betting uh oil will drop to uh 90 uh by
[9:05] uh May 26 with a oneweek call option.
[9:09] has plenty of money to join the alpha
[9:12] membership at meetke.com. Coupon expires
[9:17] May 26th, which is actually the exact
[9:20] same date their option expires.
[9:22] Okay, but you already know about that.
[9:24] Uh but also in addition to oil falling,
[9:27] you have to think inflation expectations
[9:30] will come down with that. Okay, that
[9:33] means fears of a rate uh which I I never
[9:37] thought was going to happen and I've
[9:38] said that in many videos. Fears of a
[9:40] rate hike uh are going to diminish
[9:43] rapidly uh rapidly, you know, bullish
[9:47] for stocks, right?
[9:49] uh and uh interest rate sensitives uh
[9:53] rate sensitive stocks you know housing
[9:56] related
[9:57] uh certain autos certain uh durables
[10:02] right should do well.
[10:05] Uh what that does that actually broadens
[10:09] the uh stock market's breadth which is
[10:13] literally the problem we've had right
[10:16] it's only been hardware stocks so this
[10:19] announcement that the straight of form
[10:21] moves is expected to reopen uh that
[10:25] Donald Trump has a deal an agreement uh
[10:29] that is mostly finished with just the
[10:32] final details currently being discussed
[10:34] discussed and will be announced shortly
[10:37] and BB of Israel is on board and that
[10:40] the agreement is largely done basically
[10:43] is really really good. It's very
[10:46] bullish. Right? Again, in my opinion, it
[10:49] drives oil down. It drives inflation
[10:51] expectations down. It kills the fear of
[10:55] a rate hike. It boosts interest rate
[10:58] stocks. It broadens the stock market's
[11:01] breadth, which has been horribly narrow,
[11:04] right? Those have been the problems that
[11:05] we have. All the while, we still have
[11:08] the labor market uh recovering from the
[11:13] hell of Q4. Like, if you were watching
[11:15] the labor market numbers in Q4,
[11:17] especially during the shutdown, you were
[11:19] probably getting nervous. You're like,
[11:21] crap, you know, this doesn't look good.
[11:23] This is a labor market that's about to
[11:25] ghoul speed and it's going to go, you
[11:27] know, here's the line and it's going to
[11:29] smash right through that break even
[11:30] employment line and all of a sudden
[11:32] we're going to be moving towards a
[11:34] recessionary trajectory. But what we've
[11:36] actually seen is we've stabilized at the
[11:38] line and we've sort of bounced off of it
[11:40] which is crazy. But Tuesday morning as
[11:43] well, we'll get the uh weekly ADP
[11:45] numbers. So I'll write that down as
[11:46] well. weekly ADP on Tuesday morning uh
[11:50] for the week ending May 9 should be out
[11:54] uh at 5:15 a.m. IMO I think it's 515 or
[11:58] 530 in my opinion that's uh going to be
[12:02] strong you know 30 to 40k per week which
[12:05] is very strong relative to recent
[12:07] history uh and that should also be
[12:10] should also be a bullish catalyst so
[12:13] we're actually loaded up at the moment
[12:15] with the potential for really good uh
[12:18] bullish catalysts which is very exciting
[12:22] um so I'm I'm I I think this is
[12:25] fantastic Now, um, overall, I'm curious
[12:30] to see what all of the very details of
[12:32] this deal are. We don't actually know
[12:34] yet what's going to happen with that
[12:36] enriched uranium. How similar is this
[12:38] going to end up being to the Obama deal,
[12:41] the Iran nuclear deal, uh, essent, you
[12:43] know, of of, um, 2015 that, uh, Donald
[12:47] Trump, you know, hated on for years
[12:49] during every election campaign. But, uh,
[12:52] here's the Wall Street Journal's piece
[12:54] on this. We are near the finalization
[12:57] uh of a deal.
[13:00] Uh let's see. Trump uh let's see here.
[13:04] Trump said the PAX terms are are largely
[13:06] negotiated would be revealed shortly.
[13:09] The agreement, if completed, wouldn't
[13:10] achieve Trump's main goal of preventing
[13:13] Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear
[13:15] weapon, but it would prevent a restart
[13:18] of the war in the Middle East. Right?
[13:20] Nobody really wants that right now. So,
[13:23] you know, it's somewhat a failure,
[13:26] right? Because the purpose of the entire
[13:28] conflict was to prevent Iran from ever
[13:31] having a nuclear weapon, and here we are
[13:34] failing to do exactly that. Uh, we're
[13:36] just trying to prevent going back to
[13:38] war. Got it. Uh, an agreement largely
[13:42] negotiated is to be finalized. Trump has
[13:44] told aids and counterparts that he
[13:46] reserves the right to resume attacks on
[13:48] Iran should tan fail to abide by the
[13:50] accord. He says this all the time, but
[13:53] every time he says this, he just
[13:55] literally turns around and tacos on
[13:56] himself. Like, we have bet on basically
[14:00] every single taco since uh the beginning
[14:03] of April. I said, "This is going to be
[14:04] the most frustrating and hated rally."
[14:07] Uh we said basically every Tuesday,
[14:09] anytime Trump has made a threat, he's
[14:11] just going to end up talking tacoing
[14:13] again. And I think I've had too many
[14:15] tacos to count over the last uh eight
[14:17] weeks. But it's been fantastic for the
[14:19] overall market. the index level and
[14:22] hardware. Obviously, there are plenty of
[14:24] individual stocks still in the software
[14:26] sector or other sectors like housing or
[14:28] rate sensitives that are not doing as
[14:30] well, but they actually might get a
[14:32] boost now following this agreement. Uh
[14:34] let's see what else the um Wall Street
[14:36] Journal here has to say. There only six
[14:39] comments. Okay, let's uh let's add a
[14:42] comment here. Moon.
[14:45] All right, there we go. Oh, it went
[14:48] through. Okay, cool.
[14:50] uh complete amateur hour from the
[14:52] Americans, all that firepower and no
[14:55] brains or strategy. The Iranians emerge
[14:57] far stronger from this and the US is
[15:00] significantly weakened. Well, I don't
[15:02] necessarily disagree with that comment.
[15:04] I know that sounds really like
[15:05] anti-American and aggressive, but I
[15:08] actually don't really disagree with them
[15:10] because we kind of Donald Trump kind of
[15:13] got humbled with how much our military
[15:17] could do, right? He kind of got big ego
[15:19] following Venezuela and then he tries
[15:21] that in Iran and oh crap Iran gets
[15:25] something they didn't have before the
[15:27] right to toll hormuz and split those
[15:29] profits with Qatar uh and they didn't
[15:31] give up any of their nuclear dust the
[15:33] highlyenriched uranium right in addition
[15:35] to that you've actually had threats that
[15:38] Donald Trump might do a similar thing in
[15:40] Cuba but what we've seen recently is
[15:42] that the United States has sent uh the
[15:45] the I think either the head or the
[15:46] co-head of the Central Intelligence
[15:48] Agency to Cuba to start preemptively
[15:51] negotiating with the Cubits. Uh Cuba, I
[15:54] think it was a Wall Street Journal
[15:55] article. Trump,
[15:58] let me see if I could find the article
[15:59] on it. Uh might have been I mean this
[16:02] was this was a couple couple of uh weeks
[16:05] ago, so I might not quickly be able to
[16:06] find it, but anyway. Uh see, there it
[16:08] is. C yeah, it was a couple of weeks
[16:10] ago. It was May 14th. Reuters, CIA chief
[16:13] visits Cuba as Trump urges sweeping
[16:17] changes. You don't send your CIA
[16:20] director or or chief or whatever you
[16:22] want to call him to Cuba if you're about
[16:24] to bomb them. CIA director John
[16:27] Radcliffe on Thursday delivered a
[16:28] message from President Trump uh to Cuban
[16:31] officials in Havana that the US would
[16:33] seriously engage with the island's
[16:35] government on economic and security
[16:36] issues if fundamental changes took
[16:38] place. And so in other words, they're
[16:40] trying to use the threat of military
[16:43] action and they're trying to use
[16:45] diplomacy beforehand.
[16:47] Cuba says it's ready to negotiate. Cuba
[16:50] is open to changes to its economy and
[16:52] government and eager to negotiate with
[16:54] the United States, but does not believe
[16:56] that the United States is negotiating in
[16:58] good faith. Well, because that's what
[16:59] they did with Iran, right? Oh, yeah.
[17:01] We're talking to Iran. We're talking to
[17:03] Iran. Things are going good. Things are
[17:04] going good. We just bombed them. You
[17:06] know, that's the same thing that
[17:07] happened under Operation Midnight Hammer
[17:09] last summer. We're talking to them. It's
[17:11] going great. It's going great. It's
[17:12] going great. And we just bombed them.
[17:14] Same exact thing as we had this
[17:16] February. So, I don't really blame the
[17:18] Cubans for being skeptical here. But in
[17:20] fairness, in response to this person's
[17:23] comment, they're obviously not terribly
[17:25] wrong, in my opinion, at least given
[17:27] that the United States has kind of been
[17:30] humbled a little bit, at least uh in
[17:32] being able to bully a country that's
[17:34] significantly smaller into submission
[17:36] because we didn't really win everything
[17:37] here. If anything, Iran, while they took
[17:40] a lot of beating and and damage from
[17:42] their military infrastructure from that
[17:44] point of view, you know, they might be
[17:46] up on the Hormuz deal. So, it's going to
[17:48] be really interesting to see what the
[17:49] details are. Uh, but anyway, so, um,
[17:53] we'll see what happens with Cuba. I
[17:56] think what's I mean, you've even got
[17:57] this. US surveillance flights off the
[17:59] coast of Cuba. More than 20 surveillance
[18:01] flights, have been tracked since
[18:03] February. US military aircraft,
[18:05] including both drones and crude
[18:07] surveillance planes, have been
[18:08] conducting intelligence gathering and
[18:10] recon flights around Cuba since February
[18:13] as Donald Trump tries to ramp up
[18:15] pressure on the communists. So I find
[18:17] that very interesting. So we'll see how
[18:19] that develops. But again, broadly now,
[18:22] if we do get Hormuz uh reopened here, uh
[18:26] even if it's just the hope that okay,
[18:28] it's going to get reopened very soon,
[18:29] which is the announcement here from
[18:31] Donald Trump, right? Uh if you're just
[18:33] now uh tuning in or you fast forwarded
[18:35] in the video or whatever, Donald Trump
[18:37] announcing that we essentially have a
[18:39] peace agreement called a memorandum of
[18:42] understanding regarding peace between
[18:44] the United States, Iran and other
[18:46] countries in the Middle East. The
[18:47] agreement has largely been negotiated
[18:49] subject to finalization which again is
[18:51] basically every single deal that Trump
[18:52] has ever done. You know like you realize
[18:55] that we have a Chinese trade deal with
[18:57] well China, right? US and China have a
[18:59] trade deal. That trade deal is not
[19:01] technically final. It's just a one-year
[19:05] temporary deal that expires this
[19:07] November. And in this last visit where
[19:09] Trump went to China, they didn't even
[19:11] extend it. That was one of the big
[19:13] things that a lot of people thought
[19:15] would happen going to China. They I mean
[19:17] there were people like, "Oh, FSD is
[19:19] going to get approval with Tesla.
[19:21] Jensen's going to be able to sell H200s.
[19:24] There's going to be an extension of the
[19:25] tariff truce between the United States
[19:27] and China." None of that happened. The
[19:30] only thing we really got was a small
[19:31] beef and soy deal, which doesn't even
[19:34] bring us back to the numbers where we
[19:35] were before Donald Trump's tariff
[19:37] disaster. So Donald Trump is cheering
[19:40] that, you know, soybean purchases by
[19:42] China from the United States were like
[19:43] here and then they fell to here and
[19:45] Donald Trump is cheering that they've
[19:47] gone to here. So, so it's kind of like,
[19:49] you know, you're cheering it's gone up a
[19:51] little bit off the bottom, but you did
[19:52] kind of lead it to plummet. So point is
[19:56] that's normal actually that Donald Trump
[19:58] doesn't really finalize these deals yet.
[20:01] Uh and so hence the market is in my
[20:04] opinion is going to rally off of this a
[20:07] lot. So, uh, let's take a look. And
[20:10] which is also really remarkable because
[20:12] again, this is what, uh, we talked about
[20:14] yesterday in the video where we said,
[20:16] "Hey, a deal is about to get reached."
[20:18] And we talked about this JP Morgan piece
[20:20] where JP Morgan is pointing out that
[20:22] somebody, if oil stands to fall to $90
[20:25] by Tuesday, which is, I think, exactly
[20:27] what's going to happen, somebody's going
[20:28] to make a $129 million payout. Now, we
[20:32] should probably like investigate who
[20:34] those people are. But the problem is
[20:36] you're no longer allowed to investigate
[20:37] people, I guess, inside the Trump
[20:39] family, including Baron Trump. So, some
[20:41] people are just going to be getting away
[20:43] with a big boat, and nobody's going to
[20:45] be able to say anything because
[20:46] apparently presidents now have immunity.
[20:48] Anyway, this is going to be really
[20:50] interesting because I have a price
[20:52] target that I set at the beginning of
[20:55] the month. Uh, and uh, it might have
[20:58] been late April because we were like in
[21:00] the 680 range or something. I feel like
[21:02] somewhere in there. I can't remember
[21:03] exactly where we were, but we have a
[21:04] price target for the NASDAQ 100 of 725
[21:09] uh, by the end of May. And uh, I'm I'm
[21:13] sort of giving away some alpha over
[21:14] here, but I actually think we're going
[21:16] to boom right through that because, you
[21:19] know, I expect we'll go green on Tuesday
[21:22] on the back of this deal if it actually
[21:24] comes. We'll probably be green. I We
[21:26] only need to be green by about 1% and
[21:29] we'll be at 725. We might honestly get
[21:32] all the way up to like 733. We could be
[21:34] up as much as, you know, 2% uh which
[21:37] would be somewhere right around 733 on
[21:39] the NASDAQ 100 as soon as Tuesday, which
[21:42] is pretty remarkable. Uh and a lot of
[21:44] that again is going to be driven by this
[21:47] decline in estimates for rate hikes. So
[21:51] remember, if you jump over to the
[21:53] futures to see what futures traders are
[21:55] doing, and I've been saying this on the
[21:56] channel, this isn't a big secret. This
[21:57] isn't like a you have to join the me
[21:59] Kevin courses to to to know this. I
[22:02] think Kevin Walsh is going to be an
[22:03] anchor to interest rates. While it's
[22:05] clear he's not going to be able to cut
[22:07] yet, he's going to be an anchor and
[22:10] likely keep rates stable rather than
[22:13] force them up because there are some
[22:16] people at the Fed clamoring for them to
[22:18] go up. And that has led futures traders
[22:20] to actually price in an over 66%
[22:25] chance of a rate hike come the end of
[22:28] the year. Now that's pretty crazy
[22:31] because I don't think any of that is
[22:33] accurate which is really bullish. So the
[22:36] way that works is if the market is being
[22:38] more bearish than you and if you are
[22:41] correct that the market is being too
[22:43] bearish, then you're going to get even
[22:45] more bears that come off the sideline
[22:47] and turn into buyers. In fact, I was
[22:50] just reading that shorts on the triple
[22:53] leveraged I can't remember what it was.
[22:55] Let me see. I I actually I have it right
[22:57] here. Sorry. I wasn't going to go live,
[23:00] so I'm a little less prepared than usual
[23:03] because I wasn't going to go live, but
[23:06] I did save this on my iPad because
[23:08] that's just what I do. It's Saturday,
[23:10] you know, what a great day to sit around
[23:11] and read and catch up on what Wall
[23:13] Street is thinking. But somewhere around
[23:15] here, there is uh a chart of
[23:20] short positioning. Got it. The 3x bear
[23:25] semiconductor
[23:27] ETF, the direction daily. Uh I wonder
[23:32] what the ticker is for that. Let me just
[23:33] pull that ticker really quick. So that
[23:35] is the uh direction daily semiconductor
[23:40] 3x ETF bear. So that is
[23:46] socks S. Oh, I should have known cuz I
[23:48] know Soxel, you know, we've been uh
[23:50] we've been arguing that Sockil was a
[23:52] great play since the beginning of April.
[23:53] Uh but Socks S is the bare version. So,
[23:56] the bare version uh has had this insane
[24:00] volume uh volume that has skyrocketed in
[24:05] May. So, more recently, you know how
[24:07] we've been seeing a little bit more
[24:08] volatility like Nvidia's kind of been
[24:10] getting stuck. A lot of this could be
[24:13] driven by some of this 3x leveraged
[24:16] positioning, which usually shows up at
[24:18] the end of the day where wow, more
[24:20] volume's coming in. I guess we have to
[24:21] go short more Nvidia, right, with
[24:23] options or whatever. And then you get
[24:24] hedging from from the market makers and
[24:26] that blah blah blah blah. Uh let me put
[24:27] it up on screen so you could actually
[24:29] see the chart. There we go. Uh so here's
[24:31] the actual chart. Uh and you can see
[24:34] here this is the Socks S uh ETF and uh
[24:39] that is you can see the volume here. Get
[24:42] my little pencil over here. All right.
[24:46] So
[24:47] this is the Socks S ticker. And I mean
[24:50] look at the volume since the beginning
[24:52] of April. It's just this is massive
[24:55] massive volume. Now, in fairness, you
[24:57] know, uh semiconductors have been going
[24:59] up. So, you sometimes you well, it's
[25:00] actually it's dollar volume. Is it
[25:03] dollar volume or share volume? Well,
[25:04] they don't actually say cuz if the share
[25:07] price is going down, obviously the the
[25:09] uh actual underlying volume would go up
[25:12] uh because you'd be trading more shares.
[25:14] But anyway, regardless, some of those
[25:17] people are going to get absolutely
[25:19] smoked when the market opens up on
[25:21] Tuesday would be my anticipation because
[25:23] I I think this will likely end up being
[25:25] a pretty broad uh bounce if we do end up
[25:28] confirming this deal on Tuesday or
[25:30] between now and Tuesday, which is very
[25:32] exciting. Uh I would be looking some
[25:35] other things I'd be looking for. It'd be
[25:37] nice if we could actually get uh Nvidia
[25:39] to break 227. It's a really struggle to
[25:42] break 227. Uh, but that would be great
[25:44] because that could help you keep memory
[25:45] going. Uh, if Nvidia goes up, that
[25:47] should help ARM continue its rally
[25:49] because ARM licenses to Nvidia, the ARM
[25:54] technology uh, for their CPUs, which we
[25:57] know CPUs have been blowing up. House
[25:59] hack, now known as Reinvest because we
[26:01] reinvest profits from software into real
[26:04] estate, right? Reinvest
[26:06] and a little bit into stocks. Um, house
[26:09] hack has a lot of CPUs and so we see it
[26:12] and I mention this all the time. It's
[26:13] not really a secret but it's because
[26:14] we're building out multiple different AI
[26:16] software and we need more CPUs than we
[26:18] need GPUs and we've seen that transition
[26:20] since March. So I I feel like I'm part
[26:22] of that. Uh, but my the nice thing is it
[26:25] helps me also be able to share that with
[26:27] you and we can see okay well it makes
[26:29] sense why CPU makers are doing quite
[26:31] well right now. Uh, and AMD has been a
[26:33] fantastic CPU beneficiary of this. So,
[26:36] broadly and just to bottom line it all
[26:38] here, I wouldn't be surprised again that
[26:40] this it's actually $129 million call
[26:43] option uh profit tier here uh will win
[26:46] bigly as oil falls below 90. I do think
[26:49] oil Brent will probably go down to the
[26:51] 80 to85 range if we actually get this
[26:53] deal struck uh on a hormuz reopening. Uh
[26:57] that person with the crazy insider trade
[26:59] call option, I called him the dbag
[27:01] because I think insider trading is
[27:02] scummy but you know it makes people
[27:04] money. um this person or or company or
[27:08] whatever, their call option expires the
[27:10] same day that our uh Memorial Day coupon
[27:13] code ends for the alpha membership over
[27:15] at mekevin.com. Remember, you get all of
[27:17] the uh insights in terms of the alpha
[27:20] reports every morning, all the courses
[27:22] on building your wealth, tax benefits,
[27:24] insurance, write offs, strategies for
[27:26] sales, you name it. Uh but also our
[27:28] course member live streams every day as
[27:30] well as alerts. You can see that at
[27:31] me.com. Uh I think inflation
[27:33] expectations which just peaked on Friday
[27:36] on the University of Michigan sentiment
[27:38] survey will come down. Uh and fears of a
[27:41] rate hike which we just saw on the CME
[27:43] futures. Those will diminish rapidly.
[27:46] We'll go right back to you know not
[27:48] pricing in rate cuts for this year which
[27:50] is where we should be and interest rate
[27:52] sensitive stocks should have a field day
[27:54] an absolute field day over this. uh like
[27:58] you could probably honestly get like two
[28:00] to four week call options on some of the
[28:02] interest rate sensitives and do really
[28:05] freaking well over the next few weeks.
[28:07] Uh but I do think this actually has the
[28:09] potential of broadening the stock
[28:11] market's breath, which if you've been
[28:12] paying attention over the last week,
[28:14] I've been calling that we need to see
[28:16] the indices hit higher levels. We need
[28:19] breath to expand. This is exactly what
[28:21] would make it happen. And before the
[28:24] market opens on Tuesday, we're going to
[28:26] review it in the course member liveream
[28:27] and the alpha membership. So you'll know
[28:29] if you're part of the alpha membership,
[28:30] you won't forget about it because it'll
[28:31] be the first thing I say in it what the
[28:33] ADP result was that morning, that weekly
[28:36] data, which is very very important. So
[28:38] uh overall, uh this is uh this is uh
[28:41] this is quite exciting. Uh I do uh so
[28:44] there's a comment here. Ron says they're
[28:46] still reviewing the proposal. Of course,
[28:48] but we actually had notes. Uh hold on
[28:51] here. There's a literally an update
[28:52] coming out right now. Iran far says
[28:54] straight of Hormuz would remain under
[28:56] Iran's management. Okay, so this is this
[29:00] is where it's very common when the deals
[29:02] aren't like final yet and you're still
[29:05] like, you know, with Donald Trump's
[29:06] concept of a plan where Donald Trump
[29:08] gets excited to announce deals. What you
[29:10] have to remember is
[29:13] Donald Trump does not want Iran to get
[29:15] any money from the straight of Hormuse.
[29:18] But Qatar and Iran have regularly been
[29:23] talking about tolling the straight of
[29:25] Hormuz as a solution.
[29:28] I would expect that over time Donald
[29:31] Trump is likely
[29:34] uh to accept it to avoid going into some
[29:38] form of war. That could be a a you know
[29:41] lingering issue. Maybe Trump sanctions
[29:43] them. Maybe there's some issues. But I
[29:46] think you get the straight of who's open
[29:47] again. You get some kind of maybe
[29:49] tariffs against Iran but not back to
[29:52] war. Take a look at this. Uh Iran and
[29:55] Oman in talks over straight of Hormuse
[29:58] ship payment system. This was actually
[30:00] posted yesterday. Uh Iran has actually
[30:02] two days ago. Iran has discussed
[30:04] partnering with the Gulf state of Oman,
[30:06] an American ally in a system charging
[30:08] fees for vessels passing through the
[30:10] straight of Hormuz, ignoring the Trump's
[30:13] uh the Trump administration's demands
[30:16] against demands for payment to pass
[30:18] through. It's unclear if anything
[30:20] concrete will come out of it. Blah blah
[30:21] blah blah blah. Point is,
[30:24] yes, there could be little loose ends.
[30:27] There are always little loose ends and
[30:29] each side's going to be like, well, it's
[30:30] not perfect yet. It's not perfect yet.
[30:32] But this is this is all in line with
[30:34] Taco. This is all in line with things
[30:37] improving. Hopefully, we get uh a
[30:39] continuation of this great news uh
[30:42] between now and Tuesday and then we can
[30:44] figure out some kind of long-term
[30:46] solutions after that. But honestly, I
[30:48] think this this payment system, this
[30:50] tolling system, that's a mop-up issue.
[30:52] It's not a critical issue. It's a mop-up
[30:55] issue. Uh so, uh yeah, I'm not too uh
[30:59] too terribly concerned about that. Uh,
[31:01] so we'll see what happens. Obviously,
[31:02] I'll keep you updated. Subscribe on the
[31:04] channel. You know, I just popped out of
[31:06] nowhere and went live to cover this
[31:08] breaking news. Uh, but I like doing
[31:10] that. So, make sure you subscribe uh if
[31:11] you want more of that. Obviously, join
[31:13] us over in the uh Meet Kevin membership
[31:16] if you want to be part of it there. Uh,
[31:18] you get me for usually 40 I'd probably
[31:21] say 40 to 50 minutes on average every um
[31:24] day the market is open. Uh, and so shout
[31:27] out to those of you who have recently
[31:29] joined. Uh, Da Davver, thanks for
[31:33] joining. Burl, Trevor, Edward, Steven,
[31:36] No Dominic Michael Neil Zaffron
[31:39] Christopher, Joshua, James, Lucas. Thank
[31:41] you all so very much for joining uh the
[31:43] Meet Kevin Alpha membership here
[31:45] recently. Look forward to seeing a lot
[31:46] more of you there. And um, have a
[31:48] wonderful weekend everybody and a great
[31:50] Memorial Day. We'll see you all soon.
[31:51] Goodbye and good luck.