---
title: 'Token Unlock Charts and Their Impact on Crypto Prices'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=sJkFdrCDHiE'
video_id: 'sJkFdrCDHiE'
date: 2026-08-04
duration_sec: 1081
---

# Token Unlock Charts and Their Impact on Crypto Prices

> Source: [Token Unlock Charts and Their Impact on Crypto Prices](https://youtube.com/watch?v=sJkFdrCDHiE)

## Summary

This video explains how token unlock schedules impact cryptocurrency prices, using the Oasis Network (ROSE) token as a case study. The presenter demonstrates how to analyze unlock charts on platforms like CryptoRank and Messari, and discusses how private investors and funds can influence price movements through their unlock events.

### Key Points

- **Importance of Unlock Schedules** [00:02] — Unlock schedules are crucial in crypto because they allow price prediction, unlike traditional markets where 100% of shares enter the market at once. Small unlocks occur gradually.
- **Analyzing Oasis (ROSE) Token** [00:31] — The presenter uses Oasis (ROSE) as an example, showing how to find token economics on CryptoRank and Messari, including total supply and distribution details.
- **Ten-Year Unlock Cycle** [01:28] — Oasis has a ten-year unlock cycle with sharp unlocks followed by less sharp ones, visible on the unlock chart.
- **Investor Background** [02:10] — The list of investors is ordered by amount contributed, with the largest investors at the top. Some may be marketing supporters rather than pure investors.
- **Discrepancies in Distribution** [02:37] — There can be differences between the distribution shown on third-party sites and the official tokenomics. For example, staking rewards are 23.5% on one site but 19.5% on another.
- **Unlock Graphs Are Often Delayed** [03:05] — Unlock graphs are often delayed and can change, so they should be used as a general guide rather than exact predictions.
- **ICO Rounds and Private Investors** [03:46] — ICO rounds are tokens sold to private investors. When these investors sell, the price usually goes down unless there is manipulation from funds.
- **Predicting Price with Unlocks** [05:31] — By analyzing unlock schedules, one can predict price movements better than technical analysis alone. The chart shows when unlocks occur and the price at which tokens were bought.
- **Funds and Manipulation** [06:22] — Funds are not interested in driving prices down; they often manipulate prices upward. They buy tokens to push the price up, then sell in parts to avoid crashing the market.
- **Calculating Fund Holdings** [09:00] — Using the example of Oasis, the presenter calculates that funds raised $45 million at $0.03 per token, resulting in 1.5 billion tokens, which is 15% of the total supply. This indicates potential manipulation.
- **Price Recovery Scenarios** [12:28] — A price can recover if the whole market goes down or due to manipulation. If funds have sold all their tokens, they might buy back at low prices to pump again, but this depends on the project's fundamentals.
- **Applying the Knowledge** [14:59] — Viewers are encouraged to analyze their own tokens using unlock charts. Not all projects have clear tokenomics; some have poor documentation, like Ford, where the unlock graph is missing.
- **Old vs New Tokens** [16:35] — For older tokens like BNB, the tokenomics may be less interesting as most tokens are already in circulation, and there are no sharp surges to exploit.

### Conclusion

Understanding token unlock schedules is a powerful tool for predicting cryptocurrency price movements, especially when combined with knowledge of fund behavior and market fundamentals. By analyzing unlock charts, investors can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell.

## Transcript

we will talk about the unlock schedule, this topic is extremely important and very interesting, it is interesting because we can predict the price, this is what is available to us specifically in the cryptocurrency world, this is what is not in other topics,
100% of shares do not enter the market here, small unlocks occur here little by little, I specially selected a token that can be clearly shown because the examples that I took from a regular table just randomly out of
thin air, they are not all suitable. So it was clearly visible, we will look at the was clearly visible, we will look at the Oasis token Rose, I immediately open it and in the Crypto framework and massari, I immediately go to the nozzles section, what interests us here, we are
interested in the economy that we are now entering and we do not immediately visually see. But in fact, it is there to find it, there are always several options. In this case, there is a hea button, that is, click here to look in more
detail and here they have documentation, there is a description of what is here in general, nozzles here. But we basically do everything so easily, we will look at the nozzles, this is the total emission, there
is a detailing of who gets how much, the description is small and what interests us and it is great when this Here's a clear description of this, it's just super. They have a ten-year
unlock cycle. You see, there are sharp unlocks, then less sharp ones, and now we're going to get to then less sharp ones, and now we're going to get to that. Let's go back. I'll open it now, and here we'll go to the token sale section. In this case, we have this information,
sale section. In this case, we have this information, and we see that there was a round. It's not written here when it took place. In the Past. Great when we don't know. But if the information is not here, you don't know that we, if necessary, cannot
find it anywhere. And also, here's an interesting thing: the background of investors in funds and investors is thing: the background of investors in funds and investors is not just a lot of them, they are very rich. By the way, they usually order by fat from first to farthest, that
is, the more people contributed money, the more they are here, and it turns out, by the way, there is such a nuance. Sometimes those people are here, not necessarily those who invested a lot. Perhaps there is some marketing support there. But for the most part, they
invest money here right away. I want to know that there are always some inaccuracies if, for example, we look at this distribution, that is, here are 100 tokens, one hundred percent of the tokens that are there, it is shown how they are distributed, but if
we look here  Their official economy, you can immediately see the difference, for example, look at the rewards for staking 23 and a half percent, almost a quarter of the mission, half percent, almost a quarter of the mission, in general, this is good here with us, look
in general, this is good here with us, look where the staking is 19.5 Where it’s really where the staking is 19.5 Where it’s really unclear, but in general, you need to understand, plus or minus, it works somewhere like this, yes, now speaking about decentralization and all that. But
this is a myth, in fact, everything changes as they want, that is, the unlocking graphs are usually delayed. That is, everything changes, but in general, plus or minus, you need to
rely on this because we see very interesting connections. For example, you very interesting connections. For example, you go in, look at the graph, go to the graph, for example, not here, directly in tradingel, which is more detailed, but
now that’s not the point and you can estimate from technical analysis that the price will go from technical analysis that the price will go there, it’s going in the wrong direction, that is, just here, the whole technical analysis, it should be in this
direction, it goes in another direction. That’s why one of these reasons is That’s why one of these reasons is unlocking, what we get, for example, we are interested in two categories: ICO rounds, these are those that were sold to
private investors, that is, people like you and me. When you and I invest, a listing occurs, they give us our  Tokens and we look at how much we earn if we make at least two x's here at the moment ROI is the return on
investment of two x's But it's cool, we're selling We invested correctly, but here the maximum was 2,000 dollars Well, let's say we invested 2,000 dollars and at the sale we can sell for twice as much for 4,000 dollars We will sell Yes, of course,
we will sell Even if the price starts to fall there and the graph is down and we continue selling it They say pour it into the glass, why not, because we still earn What does this mean that when unlocking occurs with
private investors, it can be called when private investors sell, the price usually goes down unless there is manipulation
from funds So remember, we look at the unlocks of private investors, the price will most likely go down Therefore, if you have tokens and need to exit, it makes sense to sell them in advance or wait, or even if you want to
buy, you don't need to buy, wait until the unlocks pass, the price Sometimes it happens a little and goes up because of the excitement Maybe  At this point, it rises. But then, as a rule, in almost 100 percent of cases, it goes down. And at this
point, you select the current, you understand that this is harmful. We look at it, we can better predict the price. Looking at the unlocks and not at what it shows us. Technical analysis usually also indicates the price at which it was bought and the
dates are also indicated. When the scam will occur, that is, we can calculate this will happen, but it's even cooler. When we have a model like this and everything that is written there, there is a breakdown in 2 years, in 2 months, neither linear nor
linear, daily once a month, all this can be seen on this chart. Look at the unlock. There was no straight line, then bam, the breakdown began. Oops, interesting. We also look, as I already said, at who has unlocks. If private investors have unlocks, then
If private investors have unlocks, then the price will most likely go down. What interests us? We are interested in funds because funds are definitely not interested in playing down. They like to put pressure on the market. Now I will tell you how in most
cases they do it. There are a lot of types of manipulation. It is really difficult to figure out what they will use, but  In general, the scheme, if you generalize, it is extremely simple. Now I will tell you about it. So before that, look at this in general, what we see is
look at this in general, what we see is the token Distribution, how the tokens are distributed, how much is given to whom. Baker I keep forgetting this word, but it is translated as bakers. Yes, bakers. Baker is supporters. Who are supporters? Who knows? They
make such general names that it is unclear. There is something written there, for example, for investors, but it happens. And in total, it is written and everything you understand is a part for sale, or there, like a staker, it is absolutely clear what this is,
strategic partners. Well, give or take the main supporters. That is, it was a main supporters. That is, it was a really long time ago. And what do we have here? Look what happens. How do funds put pressure on the price? This is
done extremely simply. Let me open the chart. What happens is if they need to raise chart. What happens is if they need to raise the price, they start buying tokens, that is, people are habitual investors, or simply nothing much is
happening on the market, and then the price starts to rise, they start buying up everything that the market is selling with their own money, that is, the market throws out. They buy the market, they throw this out, the price rises, that is,
throw this out, the price rises, that is, they thus push the price up, and when the price reaches that  The value at which they want to sell, they start selling off, they won't sell everything at once so that the market doesn't fall because there are
large volumes, they sell in parts, but look what happens, why is the unlocking chart important? Why do they need to buy and push the price up while they don't have tokens? Good question, so you need to understand when their unlocking happens. In this case, it probably
happened a long time ago, it's clear that the chart was already rising, there that the chart was already rising, there was probably manipulation. And if you look was probably manipulation. And if you look here again, then here we see two clear
such VS and it's signed, look, green is the community, red is Bakers, these are the main two strong unlocks. To whom they gave a two strong unlocks. To whom they gave a really big amount, and for example, Why did I just
say that it's not completely clear where everyone is here, and plus there is now 3 definite. Yes, it's not exact, but plus or minus, because look, in this case, we don't know how many tokens the funds bought, but we can
easily calculate this because we know that 45 million funds were raised and the price for them was 3 cents, that is, what do we take? We take the 45 million
take the 45 million that were raised, this is the money for which  We gave the funds, we divide by the price at which they took three cents and at which they took three cents and get 1 billion 500 thousand tokens, and
now look at the total supply of 10 million. This means that the funds and investors ended up with 15 percent of the tokens, and there is no
number 15 anywhere here. Perhaps it was the Foundation and Strategic Partners who gave a total of 15. In fact, they could have shoved it anywhere. What does this mean?
When investors end up with a lot of tokens in their hands, manipulation will occur at that moment. This does not mean that they just got it and bam, it happened. No, they can pull it up. It could be plus or minus a month, maybe
six months. Maybe they will adjust to the general growth when Bitcoin goes up. Maybe they will wait for a general market revival. But when we know that the funds have
a lot of tokens in their hands, this means that manipulation will happen. They need to manipulation will happen. They need to sell well, and now what is important for us is to understand the price at which they took them, for example, if. Well, let's imagine that there were
no blocks again. So, they took them at three cents and we see that here, for example, three cents and we see that here, for example, 20 are digging  X's are 20 times more profitable to sell, who knows, if there have n't been any unlocks yet, you basically don't care about
this, the three of you are the ones who have made money now, it's not them who have made money now, it's the investors who have made money, so when we look, for example, there are situations when investors, for example, took it for three cents, and we look, the price is now below three cents, and we're like, "Oh, crap."
We entered this project, what should we do? We don't worry, unlocks will happen, they will raise the price, I worry, unlocks will happen, they will raise the price, I mean, unlocks from the fund. Because it's not profitable for them, they will just start buying
tokens from the market so that the price rises. When the price starts to rise, ordinary investors, the so-called hamsters, will try to jump into this belt in order to also have time to make money. Look, the price is rising, you need to have time to buy, and it will grow,
and they will gradually begin to sell their positions. These are the unlocking charts and understanding. Who is there from the funds can be imagined at work, whether we are doing
it or not. Now we have a column in the table called manipulation, that is, we basically understand plus or minus by the dates when the unlocks were, we can understand whether there was a manipulation Well, looking at this chart and
roughly estimating when who unlocked what, but still in the twentieth year. This all probably happened already. Or was most of it given away? Yes, we see there were rises here. Most likely, it happened. What interests us further?
Then I say that the price fell by 70 percent, for example. Yes, we have these 3 here, we do n’t even have this information. There is a possibility that it will rise again. It can rise in two cases. The first case is just the
entire market went down, and the second is manipulation, but not everything is easy to manipulate. Look, for example, right now, funds have sold everything they had. As the price goes up, if they have nothing to sell, they have the option
nothing to sell, they have the option now to buy back all these positions again at a low price. Or most of them, and again raise this price. raise this price. But why would they do this? Tell me,
just think about it. Why, if a huge number of different projects enter the market and they can simply invest in a new one and repeat the same thing again. And this is actually the right
question because will they pump the price a second time? The question is really there for this, they need to buy back, but again, let’s say they
bought back the usual ones.  An ordinary investor doesn't know about the existence of manipulation funds, he just watches the price go up and down, so we look at the
fundamentality of the project for ourselves, where we invest. When a project is fundamental, people believe in it. And if people believe in it, then it's easier for a fund to instill faith in the project so that people start buying it when it grows. Because if, well, the so-
called shield grows, that is, a token that is just tokens, it has no infrastructure at all behind it, nothing at all, it is useless, it was just created only by a large fund. Explain to other players, guys, invest money here
only because the chart is growing. Well, not really, because they are playing in a not entirely stupid market. And those who understand something, therefore. When it comes to a fundamental token, then yes, this
can be considered, that is, blockchain infrastructure, it really fits here. In this case, too, 50 percent is somewhere around. I looked here, up to 50 percent is already in circulation, it suits us perfectly. And now its price is
even in the region. Well, a little twice as expensive as what they once they once initially took it for, that is, easily Oasis Network  It may become an object of manipulation again. I hope I explained how
unlocking affects prices. You can now use this. Go through your tokens. Of course, not everywhere there will be a normal, full-fledged economy that you can view and a normal unlock graph. So, I still opened my
table because I want to show you what you can encounter. So, this Ford and I will open it now here in and I will open it now here in Messara,
so the profile of the token economics is snot. Look. There is no such beautiful Look. There is no such beautiful graph as I showed it at Oasis. That is, it’s just not there and that’s it. When we go to more detailed information in the
documentation. Here, too, it’s not here. It’s just a visual representation of what and who gets how much. But there is no such graph of unlocks, but in fact. This description is it, that is, it says community, no vesting,
then it says how much the door gets. How much the bakers get and four-year How much the bakers get and four-year linear vesting with a cliff in one year from linear vesting with a cliff in one year from September 1, 2021. It’s really hard to
understand, but in fact, this is even Takinomics, that is, the graph that we looked at is exactly the same text description in graphical form. Why?  They won't do it properly. I do n't know. The question may be to confuse, but so that
you don't get confused if the project is new, for example. More precisely, not new, but on the contrary, old, then this is the economy. We may not be interested in it at all, may not be interested in it at all, as an example, for example, let's open bnb,
as an example, for example, let's open bnb, Here it is right here. But now it's 2002, and absolutely nothing has
changed, that is, we don't have much to consider here. And there's nothing to do with the same hell. In my opinion, there's nothing interesting there either,
surprise you if there is n't such a full-fledged and beautiful pictures there. Yes, you see here too, from such tokens, those that are on the market for such coins, you can't expect anything unexpected.
That is, they just have some left, you see a small reward for staking, a small increase upwards and that's it, that is, you can't compare it with a new one where they see such sharp surges and invest. At these moments, it's quite risky, unless of course these are
not unlocks from funds, because the unlocks of funds will soon be a rocket with a high degree of probability, so with this, I finish this lesson, mark it as finish this lesson, mark it as completed and  See you in the next lesson