---
title: 'Everyone Said SpaceX Would Crash on Unlock Day. It Is Rallying Instead'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=ppjZQ3jmQNA'
video_id: 'ppjZQ3jmQNA'
date: 2026-08-07
duration_sec: 981
channel: 'tastylive'
---

# Everyone Said SpaceX Would Crash on Unlock Day. It Is Rallying Instead

> Source: [Everyone Said SpaceX Would Crash on Unlock Day. It Is Rallying Instead](https://youtube.com/watch?v=ppjZQ3jmQNA)

## Summary

The transcript captures a live trading discussion among market participants, focusing on the surprising rally of SpaceX on its share unlock day, contrary to widespread bearish expectations. The speakers analyze various stocks, including SanDisk, Western Digital, and FXI, while also discussing macro events like the jobs report and oil prices. Key themes include technical analysis, event-driven trading, and the behavior of insiders versus retail investors.

### Key Points

- **SanDisk (SNDK) Rally** [00:02] — SanDisk opened weak but rallied, with a trader noting a calendar call spread that was closed for a profit.
- **WDC Trade Success** [01:43] — WDC trade hit a trend line perfectly and was closed at a nice profit.
- **Chartability of Stocks** [02:09] — Some stocks are very chartable and work well with technical analysis; others don't.
- **Looming News Events** [02:49] — Two key events: Iran/Oman/US negotiations and the jobs report, which could drive NQ volatility.
- **Crude Oil Outlook** [03:57] — Crude oil found a home around $75, with a bullish chart suggesting energy heading higher.
- **FNGD Trade** [05:18] — FNGD (leveraged bearish fund) was sold at a profit, though the trader regretted it.
- **SpaceX Unlock Day Rally** [06:02] — SpaceX unlock day saw shares rallying despite massive share releases, contrary to bearish expectations.
- **Insider Behavior** [08:03] — Insiders are seen as true believers likely to hold long-term, reducing selling pressure.
- **FXI Long-Term Play** [08:55] — FXI (China large-cap ETF) is a longer-term play with March 2027 $37 puts.
- **Nvidia Earnings Focus** [12:43] — Nvidia earnings in four weeks is a major upcoming event.
- **SPX Implied Volatility** [13:50] — SPX implied move of 52 points for tomorrow, with heightened volatility expectations.
- **SpaceX Volume Dominance** [15:01] — SpaceX volume exceeded combined volume of major ETFs like SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA.

## Transcript

Let's hop into the chart. Sandus right here, S&DK. We are down right now about $68, around 5%. As you can see from that bright green bar on the right, we opened weak in our rallying.
I had no position in this. I believe Jamal mentioned that he did, but I am watching that because as we get close to that price gap, then it gets to be a very interesting short with obviously the lack of the earnings shock risk behind it.
Yeah, I did. I had a calendar call in there yesterday. The $1,400, $1,500, $1,600 variety in this expiration for this Friday. Closed it out because I just felt like it was going to fall.
I mean, like Mike said, CapEx, these things will fall, and that's what we've seen, and I'm glad I did. I just reestablished another one for next week. And this stock moves $150 easily a day. And so there's potential ways to capture and get out and move on.
Yeah, I think I heard an analyst yesterday say that the projected earnings for this quarter were equivalent to its stock price like a year ago. I mean, the thing has been just growing insanely fast.
but as a chart it is a beauty because this like I said we're getting a surprising in Q rally right now we opened very weak
down more than 200 points we are well into the green now and part of that is the recovery we're seeing with the likes of S&DK so that gap is looking awfully enticing I've got my eye on that one Relatedly
and this is my trade WBC we opened rather weak But I haven't drawn it. I'll just sort of rough it up real quick here. You can kind of see, roughly speaking, that's kind of a –
it works out pretty well, actually. You can see that trend line. It kind of gets tagged, bang, bang, bang. And when it's down here, it's like, well, that's good enough. And so straight out of that, I'm a nice prophet.
So glad to be done with it. It's interesting to see what's going to happen with these things week to week. It really is. Isn't that wild about that line? I mean, I honestly didn't know it would work that well. I just kind of slapped that down. It's like it's almost as a penny, kind of shocking.
And this is, you know, just a general point with charts because, you know, some stocks are very chartable and work great like this one. Others don't.
And so when you find the good ones, stick with them because they tend to be just kind of chart friendly. since we're on the topic of tech stocks turning our attention to the NQ
I guess there's two looming news events that we have zero control over that I really would rather be in the rear view mirror before I get at all aggressive one of them is the perpetual
Iran slash Oman slash US negotiations thing it's just a murky mess out there no clue I mean nothing definitive has been announced But that's money in the waters.
And the other more precise event, which we can charge as a second, is tomorrow morning's jobs report. So as it is now, the NQ went exploding higher for four days, kind of stalled out yesterday and weakened some overnight.
And now we're kind of hanging out within yesterday's trading body. so that lineup drawn now is sort of the last line of defense the Bears have because some big news about Iran or some very bullish jobs for whatever form that might take
could send the thing zipping along just like it's already done with the Spiders and the Dow. Yeah, it's been a whippy, brutal market for sure, and we'll see what happens if they can get a deal done,
but it looks at the very least right now pretty flat in terms the backwardation and the depressed prices So that kind of permeating through these other markets too
Yeah, that's actually a perfect segue because the crude oil, this isn't something, I mean like half a year ago, it's not something I paid hardly any attention to and as I've been
saying, it's the most reliable news source just by seeing what the prices are doing. And as we can see, I've drawn this green line here, which is angry to yesterday's low. At the moment, we seem to have found kind of a happy home at around 75.
But if this thing jolts one direction or another, you know some real news is out there. And you'll find out before it just surprised anybody else because these markets react to the millisecond. Just eyeballing this, it honestly still looks like a bullish chart to me.
I think energy is heading higher from here. Interesting. Yeah. I mean, you know, again, this has all been – these have essentially been, like you said, about news and about the weekend. And we're nearing the weekend, so expect news.
Yeah. I mean, if a year ago we were like, all right, here's a pop quiz. What do crude oil and tacos have to do with one another? You'd be like, what? Now we all understand. But, yeah, that's crude.
And I made mention of getting out of two trades, and I did mention the second one. I'm not going to show the chart. It's kind of a boring chart. which is FNGD, which is pretty thinly traded, but it's the leveraged bearish fund against principally the same stocks.
I sold it as a profit. Frankly, it was probably really dumb. I bet it goes flying higher from here because it's really, really battered. But I'm so shell-shocked over the past five days, four and a half days really,
I'd rather just take the money and run. But, yeah, I got out of that one as a profit. But, like I say, probably a mistake. FNGD actually looks good. Hey, SpaceX, today's kind of a big day because a few months ago,
I did a video about SpaceX before the IPO, and I talked at length about the release schedule, the unlocking, which stands, I don't have to look it up anymore, I know every single day in the business, it stands from August 6th today all the way through December 9th.
And over the course of time, billions, it's not like Carl Sagan, billions and billions of shares, are going to be released, and the hand-wringing has been, oh, just watch how this thing gets zapped once those insiders start selling.
But like I'm saying, markets love to fake people out, and all along I've just had this bitey sense that, you know what, I think the thing just does exactly the opposite, and it rallies in the face of this unlock.
Not that I know, but I've got a sense that a lot of insiders are like, no, we're here for the long haul. Apple is the thing for a decade if I want to. I'm not selling at these prices. And so we're kind of seeing that happen already.
I mean, this is unlocked. This is the first release. Way more shares are unlocked today than exist in the float right now. You know, the float is like less than 5%, and the unlock is like 20%.
And it's up. As is Rocket Lab and ASPS. So kind of interesting. We seem to have maybe found the bottom here this week. Yeah, even in the last 15 minutes, SpaceX has rallied five points.
So we are seeing in real time the potential bullish effect. Yeah, I think that's an interesting call. Like when everyone is super bearish on a product that like long term, a lot of people are bullish on,
I think it's an interesting take to just try and buy the dip and get in. But yeah, we have some positions in there. Short put spread to finance a near term butterfly. Butterfly is probably going to be worthless up here at 130, 140, 150, but the put spread
finance the whole thing is now out of the money into this rally. So, we'll see. Well, SpaceX is an amazing success story. It has an astonishing leader Ms Shotwell which is the greatest surname ever for a CEO and a bunch of brilliant young people who are true believers And a goodly number of them have had the privilege of selling off their shares before the IPO
so they've got their mortgage money. I don't think they're going to be, like, crushing past each other to get out. I think they are true believers. And so, yeah, I think for now that this thing is hammered out of kind of a fear bottom.
So I wouldn't be surprised to, on a face of long-term play, I mean, I'm super bullish on this five years from now, ten years from now. In terms of six months from now, I don't know. It could be 50 bucks, but it kind of won't matter in the end.
How are we doing on time? We've got maybe time for one more. My old buddy, FXI, not something people talk about much. but this is iShares China large this is a large
cap ETF and I've been trying to find I think the way Jamal put it is a different quarry for myself a different target and this is the one
and as I as I keep saying this is a longer term play March 2027 $37 puts and slowly but surely it's tiptoeing in the right direction I'm giving myself lots of time with this one.
But as you can see with this crazy chart, it seems to be playing jump rope with that horizontal. And we seem to be on the correct side of it now for a down move. So nothing dramatic. It's kind of boring.
The bid-ask spread is preposterously wide. But this is my sort of longer-term play. I like that. I mean, longer-term play in here. It's interesting. We all see times where China goes absolutely crazy.
some of these names, a case in point 2007. I actually remember that one. That was a wild time for sure. It was like silver from last year. Yeah, and you remember those oil stocks? I don't know if you remember. It was CNOOC.
Oh, yeah. Remember those? It was nuts. They were absolutely nuts. Oh, my God. The volatility in those were crazy, Mike. They were wild. They were wild to trade. I almost want to say, I think it was briefly the most valuable company on the planet.
I think you're right. Yeah, I think you're right. There were like three of them or something. I don't remember all the other tickers, but it was absolutely. Was it called CNOC? Was that the ticker? CNOC. Yeah, I don't remember. Yeah, I don't remember the name of the company.
I just remember the ticker, C-N-O-O-C. China Petroleum. What? You know, since then, they've changed a whole lot. Like, you know, incorporating.
It reminds me of mentioning the most valuable company, Lemonade, the company LMND, was briefly worth more than IBM. There's a strange phenomenon out there. So, yeah, never go moment as long as it's a weekday.
Absolutely. That's right. What do you think about the divergence in the prediction market for a sportsbook world, if you have any opinion on that? Drafting says earnings have to be closed today. Any take either direction?
I grew up in Louisiana, a state that is all about hunting and sports. I don't have a single molecule of either of those in my body. I can't.
Don't let my physique fool you. I'm not athletic. So, yeah, I'm sorry. No, it's, I mean, I do think that humans love to, they've got to have some risk going on in their lives.
And I'd be interested in looking at that with respect to, you know, like, is this affecting Las Vegas? because this is affecting state lotteries.
People get their YIAS out one way or another, and it's not infinite. They're going to have to take away from one to put into the other. And it's like why have mutual funds gone poof, whereas decades ago that was all about, look at who on earth wants to trade mutual funds
when the granularity of trading changes like 24 hours at a time. So I don't have an opinion on that, but frankly I'd be interested to learn more. I think the whole prediction market thing and what it doing to other gambling outlets would be a cool study Yeah Very very exciting Sure Data Dog down 44 points here 15
Kind of a similar story. Any other of these tech stocks you got your eye on maybe later this week or into next week? I know we have NVIDIA at the end of the month here, but anything standing out to you in terms of interesting charts for earnings
coming up? Gosh. Yeah, earnings, no, not really. I would just say, okay, a couple of things. NVIDIA, that's going to be the big one. That's in four weeks from today, less one day.
It's the 26th, and that will be like all eyes will be on NVIDIA, definitely. What I'm looking at really broadly is just that whole hyperscaling blob that did so well on the short side until last Wednesday at the close.
I've been tiptoeing back into those. You know, Corweave, Nebius, and certain select semiconductor stocks. Those are interesting to me.
But we're kind of past the meat of the earnings season, so there's nothing in particular I'm working at there. And like I say, I'd be more comfortable getting the grits on the short side after at least we get past those jobs over tomorrow.
It's been a rough four days, Thursday, Friday, Monday, Tuesday, for the one or two bears left out there. So I'm staying a little bit on the sidelines. Yeah, SPX inside move for tomorrow, 52 points.
We've been coming into the morning with about 40 points of inside move. I mean, this will drop down a little bit as well since we still have 23 points for the rest of the day. But interesting to see still a heightened inside volatility reading, 15% for tomorrow and then the 12 for next week.
So the market's still pricing in some kind of volatility for tomorrow, likely due to that jobs report you've alluded to. Yeah, and you know what? A magical fairy could hand us the jobs report right now, and I don't think any of us would definitively know what to do with it.
You just never know how the market's going to react. Yeah. Yeah, kind of like you said with SpaceX, right? Like you just never know. There's a lot of information we've known for a while. These share lockups are coming. But everybody has known, right? So it's kind of interesting.
Yeah. It's kind of like the people that have the ability to sell, they want to sell to get the cash, but the people that want to get in are like, okay, there's more float now. Let's get in at these low, low levels. I don't think that's how people kind of volume wind up with the nerd today, actually.
I don't really think much of that. Yeah. I mean, if nothing else, the sheer amount of shares trading you would think is going to make a more efficient market. I mean, it's a lot of shares, but still a little – the push and pull won't have a dramatic effect
if there's five times as many shares floating out there. I think just based on what we've been hearing about this date for a while, we're going to have one of the bigger volume days. It's already at $124 million in volume. I mean, that's, yeah, we're going to have a big day.
I just looked up SPY, the Qs, and IWM, and the SpaceX shares are four times the amount of all those combined. Damn. So there you have it. Wow. We're going to have a big day.
Wow, I would never have guessed. That's amazing. Yeah, size at 6 million, QQQs at 11 million, IWM at 3 million, 4 million, and then diamonds at 1 million. So, yeah, SpaceX multiplying the total shares traded between the big indices of ETFs that track indices.
People want to get on the moon-based robot, actually. That's right. That is right. Yeah, and I'll throw on, I don't know why I don't have the volume on here, but we can look at the volume and show how much bigger the volume is today
relative to previous days. Yeah, I mean, I had just looked like a little bit ago. It was 119. That's 126. I mean, when I said a little bit ago, like two minutes ago. It was a night. Absolutely nutty.
But, yeah, Tim, love it. Appreciate you. We'll see you later today. Good to see you. See you later. Bye-bye. you