---
title: 'Video PWWXAORfCvI'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=PWWXAORfCvI'
video_id: 'PWWXAORfCvI'
date: 2026-07-28
duration_sec: 1082
channel: 'Taiki Maeda'
---

# Video PWWXAORfCvI

> Source: [Video PWWXAORfCvI](https://youtube.com/watch?v=PWWXAORfCvI)

## Summary



## Transcript

I'm personally farming the Poly market airdrop and various trading strategies biggest airdrops crypto is going to offer in the next 6 to 12 months. So hand and then I'll go over what I'm doing. So recently I've been making a
lot more prediction market content on my channel under my alter ego or Tiki. Um betting on poly market so he's not here. Um but I personally think that poly you have a smaller portfolio you should be farming. uh not because that there's
But if there is a token, there should be outside returns on your capital. Um I mean even like last year, you know, I barely did anything on Hyperlquid. Um it first launched and then I got a $100,000 airdrop. Um I wish I held for
longer. Um if I ke if I continue to hold um I would have like a half a million I I sold it for like 100K. Um and then I kind of moved on. Um but you know like my speculation around the poly market airdrop was kind of I guess validated
the most recent round uh there was like typically means that they're you know there's they're signaling that there going to be a token um and I know in people that invested in this round um
there's going to be a token even though nothing is confirmed. Um so when it comes to airdrop farming um in my experience I just assume that there will be tokens for tokenless projects. Um and but I'm not going to go out of my way to
you know make minus EV decisions uh to you know farm particular things. Uh it's small chance of a near drop I might as well use these platforms. Um and if you think prediction markets are going to grow from here 10 to 100x in volume or
open interest etc. Uh then I feel like it's a good skill to have right uh to be markets. Uh so that's kind of like the you know um the mindset I'm going in with. Um and I have like various ways to farm this thing. Um so first of all
let's think about how will they aird drop if they do an airdrop. Um and of likely airdrop to early users with organic activity. So you know not wash at like 90 cents and then you just like dump it immediately and then you have
like millions of volume. Uh chances are you know there's I mean there's going to activity. So I think you know they're going to reward organic activity and I think there's three ways to do so. Um, so one is discretionary trading,
Then the third is arbitrage. And I'll go over each one by one. So discretionary trading is kind of like having a long short thesis on an altcoin. Um, so let's poly market event and the market's pricing it like a 40 cents or 40% uh of
like whatever thing happening. Um, but you think it's worth 80 cents or maybe you think it's a certainty. Um, and then you're making a directional bet on the and of course this is like the most organic way to farm this thing, right?
Um, however, you know, you could lose money. Uh, this is like the I mean, but rewards people that lose money. Who knows, right? Um, I know hyperlid people, right? They lost a lot of money trading per because most people trade or
trading per uh, but then they got like the six, seven, eight figure airdrop. care what happened, right? Um, or they don't really care about the trades that more than made up for it. Um, and you know, I've been talking about various
trades that I put on uh on my on my channel. Uh my biggest one so far or my my biggest realized P&L so far was on the Mr. Beast market. Um and of course you have to ask yourself like what is your edge, right? Um like why do you
think that the market odds are wrong? Um and you know, I've typically had success betting on what I think or what I call rigged markets. Um and in the case of Mr. Beast, um I mean this is only one of my wallets, but I made roughly $8,000
total. Um and you know the way I thought about it was I mean Mr. Beast is omega rich. um he's in the business of making good content. Um so if he's going to do like a $40 million charity challenge, he's going to complete it, right? Um he
has enough, you know, levers to pull to make sure that, you know, this thing will complete. Um but he also has an incentive to make sure that, you know, right? Because, you know, from his perspective, it's like, oh, like 10
hours left. Can I raise my money, right? Um and then he can like spin up like all sorts of other videos. Um, so you know whenever the market was pricing in uh or like a 60 to 80% chance for this event happening I'm like yeah like that that
100%. Uh so you know these rigged markets are when the outcome is already predetermined but the market is pricing it as like you know as it's like not bet on that. I also bet on Lord Miles. I made like a you know like like a longer
form thesis on this uh on this market um in like my 40k bet right on market. Um, second largest holder of Yes shares. Um, I think I'm now like top 10. Um, but you
know, uh, this market has gone like a lot of controversy because, you know, cheating. Um, so the market is like, okay, like can this guy complete a 40-day water fast in the desert? Um, and my thesis was that, well, this guy can
cheat, right? Uh, so he has complete control over the outcome of the event. complete the challenge whether he cheats or not. Um, so I just like bet on the know, like what I think of like like these rigged markets. They don't happen
all the time. Um, so you know, um, I don't take that many directional trades, honestly. Um, but that's kind of like what I, you know, what I've been doing. million for a charity. That's not a challenge, right? He's going to do it.
challenge. He's probably going to do it. Uh, even though I'm not 100% sure. Um, so I might share or I might sell my shares once it gets like 90 cents or kind of the taste that I have. Um,
might be a rigged market. Um, so Kaisenat is one of the biggest, you right now he's doing he's doing like this challenge where he's live streaming 24/7 for 30 days and he's trying to raise or he's trying to like, you know,
get like a million Twitch subscribers. Um, I personally think this market is I mean he can like, you know, pay money um to like gift subs and whatnot. Um, like 70 to 80 cents. Um, I don't have a
these other markets I I like to bet on because I mean, will Kaisen not really do this challenge if he knows he can't pull it off? Probably not, right? Um, content. Um, and you know, maybe, you know, this going to be like down to the
wire, right? He needs like 50,000 subs left uh on like day 30. It's like, can probably going to make it happen. Let's [\h__\h] bet on this. Let's let's bet on this [\h__\h] Uh so second strategy um that I think is you know more you know if
might be more uh in your lane and it's called bonding and bonding refers to the act of buying things that are trading at like 99% or like 1% waiting for it to go like 99% or like 1% waiting for it to go to zero or 100%. Um, so for example, uh,
last week or I forget when this was, but you know, yeah, there was like FUD, right, because like, you know, his ankles are swollen and like his hand is like black or something. Um, and you know, there was like a market on whether
he was going to resign uh that day. Um, which I thought was like not happening because I mean I I knew he was alive. Um, so you know I I mean this is like not really profitable in a sense but you know I bought 4400 or 4,45 no shares at
99.7 uh for so basically I made like a $13 profit um on this particular market but I mean a $13 profit in like a few hours honest work right um and I you know spread this across multiple wallets and
like a way for me to build up volume um washing because I just waited for it to go to 100%. Um, and you know, like this is like one easy way, right? Um, so like betting on markets uh where people are
gambling, right? Um, like why are people like buying the yes shares? Because they will just want to gamble. Um, and if people are gambling, then you know the just take the other side um and like bet on the very very likely outcome. Um, and
the funny thing about uh is like, you know, in in these poly market comment just get entertainment um on your own. So there's like this fake Joe Biden fake Joe Biden account that was like buying Yes shares, you know, it's it's all for
like a fake commla account which I that was the these these comments are just ridiculous. Uh there are easier ways to get a 4% annual order. That is true. poly market air drop. Uh the market that I'm that I personally have a position in
right now is this one. So the Fed decision in September, um I actually paid a really bad price on this. I I paid like 98 something cents. Um, so I mean, you know, if you look at the CME Fed Watch tool, um, they're basically
pricing in like a 90 to 95% chance that they're going to, you know, cut rates cut rates 25 basis points. Um, and like very little, right, chance of them cutting 50 bips. Um, so I just bet on the no outcome that they're not going to
do anything. Um, I personally think that the odds of no change is like 0%. Um, so Um, and in a few days I can make a 2 to 3% return. Uh, so it ain't much, but
it's honest work. Um, so you know, I bet I think I bet like $20,000 on this market. Um, so I stand to gain like, you know, $400 or so. Um, of course, I mean, just like zero out. But hey, you know, um, at least I'll tell myself that I'm
farming a poly market airdrop. So, you know, this isn't like those sexy trades, personally think of it as like picking a free money on the floor. Um, sometimes, you know, it's just like nice to make a.1% gain on decent size in a few hours.
you know, those things do add up and compound um or even like a 1 to 2% gain and in the case of like the Fed market, right? Um in the in like the next few annualize, I mean, you can't really annualize these things, but if you do
annualize it, um it can, you know, be a decent amount. Um so yeah, you know, it helps me build up a bunch of volume. Um and then, you know, you can do this with Let's bet on this. So if you know if you want more you know uh yield farming
strategies or farming strategies uh make sure to check out the humble farmer army um it's my private discord link will be in the description below um and you know I share all my trades in real time. So the last thing um is arbitrage trading
self-explanatory um you know being paid to make markets efficient um across multiple prediction markets. Uh and an example is like in sports um you know these sports games happen every single day right um so let's say you know
something right uh there's one team and then there's another team um let's say on poly market uh you know team A right their odds of winning is at 55% and then on another prediction market the odds of the other team winning is like 44%. Um,
h 100 bucks of each for example um and for 90 or sorry you can buy like $99 worth of you like these shares across both markets. Um and then you basic or like a $1 profit. So it's not yeah
like literally it ain't much um but it is honest work. Um and if you if there want to farm this could be a good way. Um and also I think it's like fairly organic activity um that you know is probably not going to be detected. Um
arbiting by definition it is like very very profitable over over time. Uh so below but there's a site called polyarketanalytics.com u and you can kind of see like various markets um you know that have or very
like the same markets that are live on for example poly market and koshi. So for example um on koshi the the chances of Chelsea winning the premier league uh is at 8 cents but on poly market it's at 7 cents. So I mean I mean obviously you
this is just an example. Um but you know you can technically buy yes on Koshi and no um on on like poly market and then like make a profit for example. Um or you know you kind of get the point. Um and you know Arsenal right 3536. Yeah.
So these things you know if you yeah I mean the profit opportunities aren't that crazy. Um but I mean theoretically right um it should you know make a bunch of money over time. Uh so you know maybe it's not that exciting but you know I
it's not to make insane amounts of money u and whenever I like whenever I do you trying to get a bunch of volume without losing money right because the majority of the EV or the expected value in these trades is in the future poly market
airdrop right because yeah I mean not only can I make decent money right uh maybe not too crazy um on prediction markets you know like I put myself in a Hyperlquid, I I didn't really expect anything big uh when I first started
using it in like March of 2023, but because I was an early user, I just got big big fat air drop. Um and hopefully this time I won't sell my air drop too early. Um so, you know, uh yeah, like I said, don't do wash trading. Um it's
probably going to be easily detected. Um so like volume alone is not enough. You directional bets. I mean, all of these things are kind of directional, right? uh is a directional even though I think it's what I call bonding. Um and
arbitrage is also like a directional trade. Um so you know I you know there's trades. So that's kind of what I'm doing on poly market. Um and hopefully you know uh you can get started. Um I think it's never too late. Um the best time to
get started is now you know. Um and the second best time is like tomorrow, right? Uh so just you know keep clicking buttons. Um and you know hopefully you know we're all going to cook. So, I do want to talk about one other opportunity
many opportunities. There's so many projects that gets, you know, um that, you know, raise money. Um and there is a prediction market that I'm that I've last couple of weeks um that actually have a points program and season one
points ends September 22nd. Um so, you know, I think you know, I'm not saying you should like, you know, like gamble a lot, right? Um or like risk a lot of money. Um but this is like a very very easy thing to farm. Um, and if you're
know, um, you know, you can make the cut off essentially. Uh, so if this does end who knows, like maybe the points you form right now will be a lot will be worth a lot in like, let's say, 6 months or so. Um, so it's called Limalis. It's
kind of focus on short-term price action. Uh, raised a bunch of money from, you know, like reputable VCs, let's say, which doesn't mean much. Um, you know, I have been making bets uh, on Limitless. I made a really profitable
one uh that I talked about on my video last week where I bet $100 on this ETBTC market um or a bullish EBTC bet um and I made a 54x and I made $5,400 um on this market. So yeah, like you can make money on these things. Um and the way to earn
points is to generate at least $200 in trading volume. So like that that's literally all you need to do. Um of course you can choose the market that sometimes I do a little bit of directional stuff and and then, you
know, I I buy stuff that's trading at like 99% just so that I can get some points. Um, and the season one ends September 22nd, uh, like I said, and then season 2 starts right after. I have no idea when the TG is. U, but hopefully
sometime this year. Um, yeah, I mean, hopefully this Yeah, I I have no idea, right? Um, and I guess the one cool thing happening right now is like this thing like this challenge called hourly profit. Um and you know um I do have a
team uh called the humble farmer army right we are the humble farmers here um and we are currently second in the week one leaderboard and how this works is uh uh it's going to be two it's going to be a twoe challenge um and there's like
this score where uh or actually like the the markets that you can only bet on is like these hourly markets so you know whether or not Bitcoin, Ethereum, Salana will be above or below a certain price. Um, and if you bet and you are right,
um, and you bet at least $10, um, you are eligible for points. But like I total, uh, within or before September 22nd to be eligible. Um, and there are some prizes. So, you know, um, if you're the most profitable trader in week one,
the most profitable trader in week one, you get 3K. Uh, I'm not sure how likely starting now to like get this thing. U, but I guess, you know, like maybe week two, um, which starts uh, the the 22nd or the 23rd, I believe. Uh that could be
good. Um and then you know there's a team bonus. So um if you're in the first team bon uh so yeah if if you're in the team of Ignis for or whoever ends up points um so you are more incentivized to join their team and then second place
is 1.5x. Um so you know there really is like no incentive to like join like a like a 69x or like whoever this guy is, right? Um I mean I'm already number two. um or you know, if you want to just join the humble farmers, um you know, you can
just join the team, you know, just bet a little just bet a little bit um and you know, pretty low stakes, I think. Um and who knows, like maybe this is end up you're good at. Um and then you make a bunch of money and then you get more
points. Um so, yeah, we're number two. Um so, might as well join me. Uh since extra points. Um so, yeah, make sure to do that if you're interested, but you other team honestly, right? Um I just want you to be forming these things. Um
and yeah, and I Yeah. So yeah, so September 22nd to 29 is season two or week two, but also coincides with season 2. Uh so yeah, I I think that's mostly going to be it for me, right? Um so you know, I
think prediction markets uh very very interesting. Um I think you know um they're only going to grow in volume. Uh Kali and Poly Market are number one and number two um in no particular order. Uh it's very very intense the competition
between those two. Um you know if Kelshi gains market share relative to poly market uh poly market might be incent like incentivized to do an airdrop. Um so all of that you know uh to to summarize I think uh you know if you
have a smaller portfolio and you want like the next airdrop to farm. Um I interesting. Um I think prediction markets are relatively undermed by a lot can't just spend like $10 and like expect like a million dollar air drop
right? you have to put in volume and you have to invest time into this. Um, but I I, you know, I think it's something up anyone's alley. Um, especially if you're, you know, been in, especially if you've been in crypto for, um, a decent
it for me. Thank you guys watching. Um, and I'll see you in the poly market and I'll see you in the poly market trenches. What?