---
title: 'LIVE Trading: Building a Prediction Markets Account From Scratch'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=Yffjo6GLSG8'
video_id: 'Yffjo6GLSG8'
date: 2026-08-01
duration_sec: 1948
---

# LIVE Trading: Building a Prediction Markets Account From Scratch

> Source: [LIVE Trading: Building a Prediction Markets Account From Scratch](https://youtube.com/watch?v=Yffjo6GLSG8)

## Summary

This live trading stream focuses on building a prediction markets account on Kalshi by trading 'mention markets' — bets on whether certain words or phrases are spoken during sports broadcasts and political appearances. The host reviews the weekend's College Football Playoff, NFL, NBA, and Trump interview markets, sharing specific picks and strategies such as using limit orders, trading in-game, and researching speaker patterns with Mention Metrics. The video also documents a '250 to 10K' account challenge and promotes Kalshi's deposit bonus.

### Key Points

- **Seek edge in mention markets, not game outcomes** [04:48] — Instead of predicting winners, the host focuses on announcer mention markets, which he says is where the real edge lies for games like Miami vs Ole Miss and Oregon vs Indiana.
- **Likely mention strikes for Miami–Ole Miss** [05:00] — Freshman, Transfer, Safety, State Farm, and Lane Kiffin are all expected to be said, but at 99/97/93 cents there is no value; Lane Kiffin will be mentioned because he left the program before the playoffs.
- **Heisman and Turf worth a look** [06:10] — Heisman is interesting at 71% and Turf at 67% since the game is on turf, but the host skips Turf because of past bad luck with that strike.
- **Roughing the passer is a top target** [06:41] — The host wants to bet 'No' on roughing the passer in playoff games; at 83 cents, he's waiting for a better entry below 80 cents.
- **Super Bowl 'No' has value** [07:40] — He takes 25 to return 36 on 'No Super Bowl' for Miami–Ole Miss, reasoning that announcers will promote the College Football Playoff, not the NFL's own product.
- **Wind/Windy is a coin-flip worth taking** [11:22] — He bets 10 to win 20 on 'Yes Wind/Windy' at 46% for Miami–Ole Miss, expecting announcers to say wind is not a factor on kicks in the indoor game.
- **Use limit orders and trade in-game** [12:03] — He compares mention markets to crypto trading: use limit orders with an expiration, never reach on high prices, and let in-game price movements bring value to you.
- **NBA mention markets: All-Star and Playoff** [13:20] — All-Star is a reliable 'bond' during voting season, and Playoff is interesting for Miami–Chicago since both teams are in the playoff race; he takes 20 to return 28 on Playoff.
- **Pre-recorded political interviews are risky** [16:13] — Trump's Fox News appearance may be pre-recorded, so words could be cut out; this makes high-priced 'Yes' strikes less attractive.
- **Mention Metrics reveals Trump's word frequency** [28:21] — Data shows Trump says 'crypto' 0.2 times per speech, 'Biden' ~3 times, 'Democrat' ~3.3 times, and 'Tariff' ~4.5 times; this informs which mention markets to target.

### Conclusion

The video offers a practical look at how researching predictable events and disciplining your entries can create an edge in prediction markets, even when most prices seem efficient. The key is to wait for value, trade in-game, and use data tools like Mention Metrics to back your picks.

## Transcript

We have a full slate on the schedule for&nbsp; prediction markets this weekend. We have College&nbsp;&nbsp; Football Playoffs. We have the NFL. We have lots&nbsp; of political speeches to talk about. I mean,&nbsp;&nbsp; it's going to be a flurry of markets this&nbsp; weekend across Kalshi. So, in this stream,&nbsp;&nbsp;
we are just going to go over some plays across&nbsp; tonight's games, mention markets, announcers,&nbsp;&nbsp; etc., and really just try to find an edge&nbsp; over the weekend with so much going on.&nbsp;&nbsp; Kind of cut through the noise and be able to&nbsp; take advantage and hopefully profit on the&nbsp;&nbsp;
prediction market side this weekend. So,&nbsp; without further ado, let's jump into it.
All right. And as always, guys, be sure&nbsp; to drop down below if you are on YouTube,&nbsp;&nbsp; like the video and subscribe to the channel. And&nbsp; on X. Hit that like button down below. And also&nbsp;&nbsp; repost the streams if you're getting value out of&nbsp; the streams. That really helps us get in front of&nbsp;&nbsp;
more people bullish on crypto and prediction&nbsp; markets. And in the chats, if you guys want to&nbsp;&nbsp; ask any questions, specific markets you want me to&nbsp; cover, I'm very happy to do so. So, let's just go&nbsp;&nbsp; ahead and jump into it. This morning was a pretty&nbsp; busy slate. We had JD Vance, Karoline Leavitt,&nbsp;&nbsp;
and Gavin Newsom speeches. I was able to come&nbsp; out on top on JD Vance and the Karoline Leavitt&nbsp;&nbsp; ones. I did not trade the Gavin Newsom because&nbsp; I really know nothing about his speeches. So,&nbsp;&nbsp;
I really tried to keep it on track with the&nbsp; things that I listen to. Also, Mamoudou had&nbsp;&nbsp; a speech this morning. I think we came out in&nbsp; profit on that as well. So, waiting for a good&nbsp;&nbsp; amount of payouts there on the portfolio. And we&nbsp; are still actively trying to complete the 250 to&nbsp;&nbsp;
10K challenge. Obviously, the New Year's was a&nbsp; little bit of a slow time for a lot of trading.&nbsp;&nbsp; So, kind of resuming that heading into this year.&nbsp; And I think like we mentioned on the last video,&nbsp;&nbsp;
I will go over and show every single month my&nbsp; profit calendar. So, if you guys use Kalshi,&nbsp;&nbsp; you can check out Piket. You can actually&nbsp; track your calendar every single day on&nbsp;&nbsp; your Kalshi account. It really does help kind of&nbsp; itemize and show you where you're profiting the,&nbsp;&nbsp;
you know, the different plays and the mentions&nbsp; or sports, whatever you're profitable at. So,&nbsp;&nbsp; I would definitely recommend that. And also, a big&nbsp; shout out to Kalshi. Without Kalshi, we would not&nbsp;&nbsp; be doing the streams every single week like we are&nbsp; trying to deliver value across prediction markets.&nbsp;&nbsp;
You can deposit $10 and Kalshi will give you $10&nbsp; absolutely free. So, they'll double your account&nbsp;&nbsp; if you trade $10 using the link down below. It is&nbsp; US only. So, check out Kalshi down below. Deposit&nbsp;&nbsp;
and trade $10 and they will literally give you&nbsp; $10 absolutely free. So, let's just jump into it. Dav, it is Kalshi time. It is time to&nbsp; hit the trenches and see what we can&nbsp;&nbsp; find for a really packed weekend. Like&nbsp; I said, now before we get going here,&nbsp;&nbsp;
there are a few things going on right now in&nbsp; the sports world that I am tracking. So, first&nbsp;&nbsp; and foremost, I do have a position here in the&nbsp; Real Madrid Atletico match. So, right now I have&nbsp;&nbsp;
70 shares of Yes. At 70 cents. Right now, they are&nbsp; up 2-1. It's the 82nd minute against Atletico. So,&nbsp;&nbsp; I am hoping to close this one out in profit. We&nbsp; will see what happens. I think that Real Madrid&nbsp;&nbsp;
can hold on, but I will be monitoring this&nbsp; situation very closely. And on top of that,&nbsp;&nbsp; let's see here. Go to the portfolio. I also have&nbsp; currently open No to three and a half goals on the&nbsp;&nbsp;
Arsenal match. It is zero to zero almost halftime.&nbsp; I took a pretty juicy line there, but at the same&nbsp;&nbsp; time, I think it was a pretty good position&nbsp; to take. The fact that they were even offering&nbsp;&nbsp; three and a half goals. I did have to go ahead&nbsp; and take the No on three and a half goals. Now,&nbsp;&nbsp;
let's get into tonight's slate. Friday, Saturday,&nbsp; and Sunday, we have a packed weekend as mentioned.&nbsp;&nbsp; If we were to go over, let's just start on&nbsp; the sports side. We go over to football. And&nbsp;&nbsp;
we will start with really what all eyes are on&nbsp; this weekend is College Football Playoffs and&nbsp;&nbsp; NFL Playoffs. Right now we can see here Miami&nbsp; and Ole Miss tonight. Oregon, Indiana. We have&nbsp;&nbsp; the Rams and Panthers, Packers, Bears, Buffalo,&nbsp; Jacksonville, San Francisco, Philadelphia. So,&nbsp;&nbsp;
lot of games going on, but we really aren't&nbsp; focusing on the games. You know, obviously&nbsp;&nbsp; I'll be watching a lot of these with intrigue.&nbsp; I'm a huge football fan, but I don't really see&nbsp;&nbsp;
much of an edge as to coming in here and trying&nbsp; to predict these games straight up. However,&nbsp;&nbsp; we can go over to the mention side of things,&nbsp; and this is where we can really find an edge.
So, tonight we have Miami versus Ole Miss. We can&nbsp; go ahead and take a look here at the offerings.&nbsp;&nbsp; We see Freshman, Transfer, Safety, State Farm,&nbsp; Lane Kiffin. A lot of these will probably be hit.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Let's just break down some of these strikes&nbsp; down the list here. So, Freshman, Transfer,&nbsp;&nbsp; Safety, State Farm, Lane Kiffin. I think those&nbsp; five will hit, but there's no value in taking&nbsp;&nbsp; 99, 97, 93. So, State Farm will be said because&nbsp; it's the name of the stadium. I think that the&nbsp;&nbsp;
announcers will absolutely name drop the stadium.&nbsp; We have Lane Kiffin. He left the program before&nbsp;&nbsp; the College Football Playoffs started and I do&nbsp; think that they will absolutely mention his name&nbsp;&nbsp;
because they are making a run without their head&nbsp; coach, Lane Kiffin. So, that will definitely be&nbsp;&nbsp; said. Moving on down the list here though. I think&nbsp; that there's some interesting ones here. Heisman&nbsp;&nbsp;
definitely could be said. You know because the&nbsp; winner of this game either takes on Indiana led&nbsp;&nbsp; by Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza or the&nbsp; Oregon Ducks. So they might mention the Heisman&nbsp;&nbsp;
word. I think that's an interesting one at 71%.&nbsp; I definitely think Turf is interesting. They are&nbsp;&nbsp; playing on turf tonight and just above else. Okay,&nbsp; I will say every time I take the Turf strike, I&nbsp;&nbsp;
get a pretty rough go of it. If they don't play on&nbsp; turf, I'll say No to Turf, they say Turf. Whenever&nbsp;&nbsp; they do play on turf, and I say Yes on Turf, they&nbsp; don't say Turf. So, it's interesting. I am going&nbsp;&nbsp; to sit that one out for now. The ones that I'm&nbsp; really bullish on in this game, and it is kind of&nbsp;&nbsp;
expensive. It's 83 cents, but it is a high-stakes&nbsp; College Football Playoff game and these teams are&nbsp;&nbsp; well coached. Regardless if Lane Kiffin left Ole&nbsp; Miss, Miami has a great coach. They can't commit&nbsp;&nbsp;
stupid penalties. And the stupidest penalty would&nbsp; be a roughing the passer call. And right now,&nbsp;&nbsp; I mean, it is 85% so you would have to go in&nbsp; pretty heavy for an ROI. But what I like to do&nbsp;&nbsp;
is during the game, these odds do change. So,&nbsp; I'm looking at roughing the passer in a lot of&nbsp;&nbsp; these games this weekend. I will be honest, that&nbsp; is the one strike that I absolutely want to try&nbsp;&nbsp; and take a stab at is finding some roughing the&nbsp; passer value tonight. So, anything I would say in&nbsp;&nbsp;
the 70s I would take. Right now it's at 83 cents.&nbsp; So, maybe we can get some Yes money coming through&nbsp;&nbsp; and take advantage of roughing the passer, No.&nbsp; Otherwise when I look at this game, I think that,&nbsp;&nbsp;
you know, No Good. Are they going to miss a&nbsp; field goal? That could be an interesting one. Super Bowl. I don't know why I don't know why&nbsp; they'd be talking about the Super Bowl. I mean,&nbsp;&nbsp;
when you think about alumni from these two&nbsp; colleges, maybe I mean, AJ Brown is the&nbsp;&nbsp; defending Super Bowl champion. If you know they&nbsp; could mention his name but I just don't see where&nbsp;&nbsp;
that would come up. Super Bowl No to me has some&nbsp; value. I kind of like that and I'm going to go 25&nbsp;&nbsp; to return 36 on No Super Bowl. It's the College&nbsp; Football Playoff. I think they want to put the&nbsp;&nbsp;
shine on their own product, not the Super Bowl.&nbsp; The Super Bowl is not in Arizona. That's where&nbsp;&nbsp; this game is being played. That could be the&nbsp; only reason I could see that kind of mentioned&nbsp;&nbsp; or the fact that alumni for Ole Miss and Miami&nbsp; are competing for the Super Bowl this year. So,&nbsp;&nbsp;
we will have to kind of see if that's going to&nbsp; play out or not. I'm just going to take No to&nbsp;&nbsp; Super Bowl. I don't love anything in that game.&nbsp; I will go heavy on roughing the passer if it goes&nbsp;&nbsp; below 80 cents. So, that's one I absolutely would&nbsp; take, but we have to get better pricing on that.
Moomoo Evans, what's going on? Good to see you,&nbsp; prediction legend or prediction wizard. I'm trying&nbsp;&nbsp; to work my way up there. But that's why we're&nbsp; doing this trading the account live trying to get&nbsp;&nbsp; up that 250 to 10k challenge. The 250 deposit into&nbsp; 10k. So that is absolutely something we are trying&nbsp;&nbsp;
to do. You can call me a wizard when we accomplish&nbsp; that. Let's see what other people are thinking.&nbsp;&nbsp; Yeah, so Oregon and Indiana tomorrow night.&nbsp; This is another College Football Playoff game.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Heisman's at 99%, Safety 99%. A lot of these&nbsp; are absolutely going to be said. This one's&nbsp;&nbsp; in Atlanta, I believe. I think it's the Peach&nbsp; Bowl tomorrow night. And we have Indiana versus&nbsp;&nbsp;
Oregon. Same kind of thing. I would go heavy&nbsp; on roughing the passer. These are two very&nbsp;&nbsp; well coached teams. And 85 cents is a little&nbsp; bit expensive. I would like to get something&nbsp;&nbsp; a little more valuable than that. Turf at 67%.&nbsp; Yes. Let's see what other people are thinking on&nbsp;&nbsp;
this one here. We can see No to Wind and Windy.&nbsp; So, we lose on Kirk saying indoors tonight. So,&nbsp;&nbsp; no wind. Luckily, there's no wind in the stadium&nbsp; tonight because that was a close one. Yeah,&nbsp;&nbsp;
an interesting strike on all of these games&nbsp; that are inside is Wind. They usually do&nbsp;&nbsp; mention wind on indoor games like that there's&nbsp; no wind on this kick or whatever the case is.&nbsp;&nbsp;
That could be an interesting market.&nbsp; These are just so efficient right now,&nbsp;&nbsp; these college football mention markets. It's kind&nbsp; of hard to pick out crazy value, especially now&nbsp;&nbsp;
that there's only a couple left. Like it's these&nbsp; two than the National Championship. So these&nbsp;&nbsp; prices are extremely fluid and extremely efficient&nbsp; at this point in time. Same kind of thing. Super&nbsp;&nbsp;
Bowl's less expensive here or it's more expensive&nbsp; here on the No 76 cents. I would like to take a&nbsp;&nbsp; stab at maybe Yes on Wind and Windy. It's 42%. I&nbsp; could totally see someone saying that tonight or&nbsp;&nbsp;
tomorrow night. I'm going to go look at&nbsp; the price on the Miami and Ole Miss game. What's going on Adrian? Hope you're having a&nbsp; good day. Thanks for coming in to the stream.&nbsp;&nbsp; Let's see. Miami Ole Miss tonight Windy is 46%.&nbsp; So it's basically even money for them to say no&nbsp;&nbsp;
wind's not a factor on this kick or whatever the&nbsp; case is. 10 returns 20. I'm going to take a stab&nbsp;&nbsp; that they're going to say Wind or Windy. Just 10&nbsp; to win 20. So double our money on that trade if it&nbsp;&nbsp;
does come through. Nothing crazy. I just I don't&nbsp; see a ton of value until the game's going on. So,&nbsp;&nbsp; the one thing we can't do these live very much&nbsp; because I can't play the audio of the football&nbsp;&nbsp;
game on YouTube. So, that's something that's&nbsp; prohibited. That's the main platform that we&nbsp;&nbsp; stream on. So, I just can't do that. When it&nbsp; comes down to just guidelines YouTube does not&nbsp;&nbsp;
enjoy when you stream live events, especially&nbsp; something that's going to be on ESPN. So,&nbsp;&nbsp; the biggest value I can talk about on these&nbsp; markets, the mention markets for announcers is&nbsp;&nbsp; trade them in game. Like, if some of these&nbsp; high-priced strikes like Heisman, Draft,&nbsp;&nbsp;
Lane Kiffin, if they start trickling down because&nbsp; they haven't been said by like the third quarter,&nbsp;&nbsp; that's where you can find value. So, above else,&nbsp; pregame picks are good and everything like that if&nbsp;&nbsp;
you can find value. But never reach on, "I really&nbsp; want this one. I don't care if it's overpriced.&nbsp;&nbsp; I'm just going to take it." Two things you have&nbsp; to remember. You can do limit orders. So, limit&nbsp;&nbsp; order. You can pick how many contracts you want.&nbsp; You can set the price. And if it ever hits that&nbsp;&nbsp;
price, you're going to get filled. And you can&nbsp; set an expiration. Whether you want it pregame or&nbsp;&nbsp; whether you want it during the game. So, you can&nbsp; treat this just like crypto trading in the fact&nbsp;&nbsp; that you can do limit orders. So, never reach on a&nbsp; price. If you like a market, wait for the game to&nbsp;&nbsp;
start. And sometimes these prices are very very&nbsp; active whenever it comes to the in-game prices. There are a couple of NBA markets tonight&nbsp; as well. Let me go here. So right now,&nbsp;&nbsp;
let me check in on the games tonight. It&nbsp; says Miami Chicago. I think that is tonight,&nbsp;&nbsp; but I'm going to double check. Yeah, Miami&nbsp; Chicago. So Miami at Chicago, the United Center,&nbsp;&nbsp;
that's definitely going to get set at 92 cents,&nbsp; 94 cents. All-Star has been one. I'm not going to&nbsp;&nbsp; lie, I have been bonding All-Star because All-Star&nbsp; voting has been going on. People are getting voted&nbsp;&nbsp;
into their, you know, in this instance, it's&nbsp; going to be Bam Adebayo probably talked about&nbsp;&nbsp; as an All-Star. Like that's just what it's going&nbsp; to be. So, All-Star voting's going on and the&nbsp;&nbsp;
All-Star game is around the corner. As corny&nbsp; as the NBA All-Star game is and as meaningless&nbsp;&nbsp; as it is, they have been saying All-Star pretty&nbsp; consistently. So, I've been treating that like&nbsp;&nbsp; a Bond on certain games. You have to make sure&nbsp; that there's All-Stars on the teams. Don't go on&nbsp;&nbsp;
Pacers and Hornets because I mean, LaMelo Ball's&nbsp; probably an All-Star, but I wouldn't put the&nbsp;&nbsp; money on a game like that. You want to have good&nbsp; teams that have potential to have a few All-Stars.&nbsp;&nbsp; You don't want to just rely on one player. But&nbsp; when you look through here, currently injured,&nbsp;&nbsp;
injury will be said because they have a, the&nbsp; Bulls have a couple of players injured. Ankle,&nbsp;&nbsp; Playoff. Playoff could be interesting&nbsp; here. Obviously the Bulls aren't great,&nbsp;&nbsp;
but they are right on the cusps of the Play-In and&nbsp; the Heat are on the bubble of the Playoffs. So,&nbsp;&nbsp; you could look at the playoff race if you are&nbsp; an announcer. So, that's one that's interesting.
Yeah, I'm going to go Playoff. Nothing crazy.&nbsp; I'm going to go 20 on Playoff to return 28. So,&nbsp;&nbsp; a 40% return on that trade. The thing is on&nbsp; tonight's stuff, I'm not in love with a lot&nbsp;&nbsp;
of these pregame prices, and that's the problem.&nbsp; For the most part, there are a few things I did&nbsp;&nbsp; want to talk about. One thing we're going to do&nbsp; in an upcoming show. Now, this would just be a&nbsp;&nbsp; pre-recorded video is I want to jump in and&nbsp; Vibe Code, as they're calling it on Claude,&nbsp;&nbsp;
a prediction market software kind of thing. So, a&nbsp; tracker on certain events. Now we can do sports,&nbsp;&nbsp; we can do politics etc. But what Easy did&nbsp; here which I absolutely love is regarding&nbsp;&nbsp;
the Golden Globes this coming week. So he's&nbsp; put together a Claude software that's giving&nbsp;&nbsp; predictions on what's going to happen across these&nbsp; different markets which is really interesting. So,&nbsp;&nbsp;
I'm going to try to put together a pre-record of&nbsp; us putting together on Claude an active prediction&nbsp;&nbsp; markets software that we can actually use, plug&nbsp; in, and hopefully churn out some profits using.&nbsp;&nbsp;
So, that's one thing I am looking at doing. It's&nbsp; a bummer that there's no, you know, like the Trump&nbsp;&nbsp; speeches have been pretty lackluster. We have&nbsp; what will Trump say this week? What will Trump&nbsp;&nbsp;
say during his Fox News appearance? So this is&nbsp; in five hours. Let's go ahead and take a look&nbsp;&nbsp; at this. Then what we'll do is Trump's appearance&nbsp; tonight on Fox News Live or pre-recorded. So these&nbsp;&nbsp;
pre-recorded markets have not been friendly for&nbsp; people whenever they jump in. Because they cut out&nbsp;&nbsp; a lot of what people say. I wasn't able to find&nbsp; "regularly airs live coverage." What it means&nbsp;&nbsp; for tonight? It's a one-time interview segment&nbsp; that's part of that often could be pre-recorded&nbsp;&nbsp;
or aired later. Yeah, I'm scared that this here&nbsp; would be pre-recorded. Let's see. China, Russia,&nbsp;&nbsp; Democrats, Somalian, Somali daycares.&nbsp; Craziest scandal of 2026 already hit.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Let's see. I am going to go to I think this is&nbsp; Twitter. Yep. Let's see. Usually Trump Fox News.&nbsp;&nbsp;
We'll be able to find this data pretty quickly.&nbsp; I believe let's see. You know what? Actually, I&nbsp;&nbsp;
am going to search up Tyrell always keeps track of&nbsp; what mention markets are going on. Nex. Me. Here&nbsp;&nbsp; we are. Absolute GOAT by the way 100k in profit&nbsp; he hit this week. And it's mainly on mention&nbsp;&nbsp;
markets. So Nex political mention for today is&nbsp; Trump on Hannity. Reporting is that Hannity just&nbsp;&nbsp; entered the West Wing a short time ago. So that&nbsp; is likely being filmed now or very soon. So that's&nbsp;&nbsp; the thing. This might be pre-recorded. Depending&nbsp; on how much of the interview they show, I can see&nbsp;&nbsp;
a pathway for a lot of Yes. If it's split into&nbsp; two-part, it will change the equation to guessing&nbsp;&nbsp; what they will air today versus tomorrow. Some of&nbsp; these strikes, Fraud, Greenland, Trillion, I mean,&nbsp;&nbsp;
he loves his Billions and Trillions. California,&nbsp; Hottest Crypto, Bitcoin. No is almost a certainty,&nbsp;&nbsp; but it's at 94 cents. This has been the best&nbsp; value. He never talks about crypto and Bitcoin&nbsp;&nbsp;
in these. So that's been a really good value pick&nbsp; even at 94 cents. And if that goes any better&nbsp;&nbsp; like in the 80s, I would absolutely take that.&nbsp; China, Russia, Democrat, Somali. Honestly, it's&nbsp;&nbsp;
just not a good return. A lot of these strikes&nbsp; are just really high priced, which is tough.
Once again, and it's a pre-record, which is going&nbsp; to make this a little more complicated. Definitely&nbsp;&nbsp; is going to be a Yes Fest. Like all of these at&nbsp; the top here, China, Russia, Democrat, Somalia,&nbsp;&nbsp;
Somalian, whatever the case is, Biden, Maduro,&nbsp; he's absolutely going to say all of those. So,&nbsp;&nbsp; if you have the balls and you want to put the&nbsp; money up at those strike prices for small returns,&nbsp;&nbsp;
absolutely you can. At 86 cents, for example,&nbsp; 50 only returns you about 12% on your investment&nbsp;&nbsp; there. So that is, you know, it's a big risk for&nbsp; a small return, but I think a lot of these are&nbsp;&nbsp;
absolutely going to get said. I just I can't&nbsp; find value in taking this high of prices on&nbsp;&nbsp; a pre-record when they could cut out so many&nbsp; from the market. Shinobi Obi says prediction&nbsp;&nbsp; markets are going to ruin a lot of lives. I&nbsp; mean, sports gambling's done the same thing,&nbsp;&nbsp;
but at the end of the day, prediction markets,&nbsp; you can actually find an edge if you listen&nbsp;&nbsp; to speeches like Trump and Mamoudou are very&nbsp; predictable speakers. So, if you can come through,&nbsp;&nbsp; study their transcripts using stuff like Mention&nbsp; Metrics, absolutely GOATated tool. You can figure&nbsp;&nbsp;
out what they say. You can look up the topics of&nbsp; what the speeches are. If you're just going to&nbsp;&nbsp; go bet sports using Kalshi or Polymarket, yeah,&nbsp; that's going to be the same exact thing as quote&nbsp;&nbsp; unquote gambling. But at the end of the day, you&nbsp; can do research and find an edge in certain areas.&nbsp;&nbsp;
And a lot of people are doing that and taking&nbsp; advantage of these mentioned markets currently and&nbsp;&nbsp; making a lot of money. Anything can ruin lives.&nbsp; Crypto trading can ruin lives. You know, options&nbsp;&nbsp;
trading has ruined lives. It's a lot of things&nbsp; have ruined lives. It's not a brand new thing. Boom. So, Real Madrid hit. Anyone who joined at&nbsp; the beginning of the stream could have literally&nbsp;&nbsp;
taken 80% with 10 minutes left in the game. So,&nbsp; that was an easy strike there. Real Madrid 2 and&nbsp;&nbsp; Atletico Madrid 1. Yeah, Shinobi. It's just you&nbsp; know prediction markets it's a new way of trading.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Some people look at it as gambling. It can be&nbsp; gambling. You know what I mean? Like it can be but&nbsp;&nbsp; you know I think there is a little more edge to be&nbsp; had versus other forms of gambling. Let's just say&nbsp;&nbsp;
that. And then Arsenal Liverpool is still 0-0.&nbsp; I have it pulled up here on my side. So that's&nbsp;&nbsp; looking good so far. Anyone who jumped in and took&nbsp; that Real Madrid trade right at the beginning,&nbsp;&nbsp;
that was it was pretty last minute because the&nbsp; game was already going on, but that could have&nbsp;&nbsp; been nice. Honestly, the slate tonight is&nbsp; just kind of rough. And a Trump pre-record,&nbsp;&nbsp; I'm not willing to go in at a bunch of&nbsp; 80% price points. Right now, like I said,&nbsp;&nbsp;
now we're pending this payout for Real Madrid.&nbsp; We did profit on that Karoline Leavitt market,&nbsp;&nbsp; waiting on a couple payouts from announcer markets&nbsp; last night. Let's see. Let's see. Let's see. So,&nbsp;&nbsp;
tonight Miami Ole Miss, I have No to Super Bowl&nbsp; and I have Yes to Windy. I think that they'll&nbsp;&nbsp; mention there's no wind in the stadium whenever&nbsp; they're kicking off or whatever the case is. And&nbsp;&nbsp; then Super Bowl, I just don't know why they would&nbsp; mention the Super Bowl tonight during the College&nbsp;&nbsp;
Football Semi-Final. It's one of the biggest&nbsp; games of the college football season. I don't&nbsp;&nbsp; know why they would showcase the higher levels&nbsp; premier product when this is college football's&nbsp;&nbsp; premier product and they definitely want people to&nbsp; focus on that. I also have them to say Playoff in&nbsp;&nbsp;
Miami and Chicago tonight in the NBA because&nbsp; I think they're both in the playoff race and&nbsp;&nbsp; the standings of the Eastern Conference. I think&nbsp; those are pretty good strikes for this evening.
Locked In. What's going on my friend? Good to&nbsp; see you in the chat. Great time last night as&nbsp;&nbsp; well. Locked In and I are locked in in real life.&nbsp; We're prediction market. We're talking prediction&nbsp;&nbsp;
markets in crypto 24/7. Yeah, that's really what&nbsp; I'm looking at for tonight. I want to live trade&nbsp;&nbsp; these football games. So whenever Miami and Ole&nbsp; Miss are going on, I want to jump in and take some&nbsp;&nbsp;
of these strikes. I want to see if some of these&nbsp; high prices can come down if they're not said by&nbsp;&nbsp; the second or third quarter or I want to jump in&nbsp; and I hope that roughing the passer right now at&nbsp;&nbsp;
83 cents. Hang on. This was at 85 when we started&nbsp; the show. That's at 85. There's not enough shares&nbsp;&nbsp; for me to fill. Yeah, same thing. Roughing the&nbsp; passer is what I'm looking at heaviest tonight.&nbsp;&nbsp;
If I can get a good price on roughing the passer,&nbsp; I'm going in roughing the passer No on Ole Miss&nbsp;&nbsp; and Miami. Otherwise, I do love No Super Bowl.&nbsp; Yes, Windy. And then like I said, the word&nbsp;&nbsp;
Playoff in Miami and Chicago. That's really what&nbsp; I'm looking at right now for the college games. Now, we can go look at the NFL and we can kind&nbsp; of take a look if there's any value in those&nbsp;&nbsp;
mentions. And what I could do is even if it's&nbsp; not on YouTube. Oh, there we go. Kalshi crashed&nbsp;&nbsp; out on me. Even if it's not on YouTube, I could&nbsp; stream on Saturday on X and just go over some&nbsp;&nbsp;
of these mentioned markets for the NFL at that&nbsp; point in time. But let's see here. First game&nbsp;&nbsp; of the weekend's Rams and Panthers. Let's&nbsp; just see what they're pricing out some of&nbsp;&nbsp; these because if there's not a lot of value, I'm&nbsp; just not even going to worry about it. MVP. Yes,&nbsp;&nbsp;
that's definitely going to be said because&nbsp; Matthew Stafford is probably second in line&nbsp;&nbsp; in the MVP race. That's probably a pretty good&nbsp; strike. It just depends on how much you can get&nbsp;&nbsp; filled at that price. 83. Yeah. I mean, it's like&nbsp; a 17% return. Not too bad. Cam Newton. Yeah. First&nbsp;&nbsp;
to playoff appearance. LA, it might show last&nbsp; time the Panthers won the division. Cam Newton&nbsp;&nbsp; was the quarterback. This, this, this. That's a&nbsp; pretty good strike. I could see them saying Cam&nbsp;&nbsp; Newton. Uptown. That's probably a Carolina thing.&nbsp; It's in Charlotte, North Carolina. Roughing the&nbsp;&nbsp;
passer 80s. I mean, that's a better price than the&nbsp; other games, that's for sure. And these are two&nbsp;&nbsp;
disciplined, well coached teams. I could probably&nbsp; wait on that even and get the same price and not&nbsp;&nbsp; have to lock up cash. I love roughing the passer&nbsp; here. Rams and Carolina, really good coach teams.&nbsp;&nbsp;
You can't make mistakes in the playoffs like a&nbsp; roughing the passer. And I think that that's a&nbsp;&nbsp; pretty good strike there. Pro Bowlers probably&nbsp; going to hit. Both of these teams have a few Pro&nbsp;&nbsp; Bowlers on their roster. Schedule. Maybe they&nbsp; show the television schedule. They wouldn't&nbsp;&nbsp;
talk about the team schedule in the regular&nbsp; season anymore. It's the playoffs. Schedule,&nbsp;&nbsp; Yes, probably hits though because they're&nbsp; probably going to show the national TV schedule,&nbsp;&nbsp; which they always do. So, that's another one.&nbsp; I'm just I'm a roughing the passer. No, Maxi.&nbsp;&nbsp;
And there's been times where roughing the passer&nbsp; occurs in the game and the announcers just don't&nbsp;&nbsp; say the words "roughing the passer." So,&nbsp; I do love that. I feel like I can conserve&nbsp;&nbsp; cash though and probably get the same price right&nbsp; before kickoff on Sunday or on Saturday morning.
So, as you guys can see, I'm looking for a&nbsp; lot of value on roughing the passer on these&nbsp;&nbsp; football mentions. I think that it's playoff&nbsp; time and if these teams want any chance to win,&nbsp;&nbsp; they can't make a simple mistake like a roughing&nbsp; the passer. It looks like some of our markets are&nbsp;&nbsp;
currently paying out. So, yeah, I'm going to&nbsp; go ahead. I'll take that for 50. No. Roughing&nbsp;&nbsp; the passer. Yeah, that's what I'm going to look&nbsp; at. I'm going to do a little more research on&nbsp;&nbsp;
tonight's Trump mention market and see if I can&nbsp; find some value. If I can, I will be posting it&nbsp;&nbsp; on my X. My X account is just at Hustlepedia and&nbsp; you can check out anything that I update there.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Here in a couple hours because pre-records are&nbsp; tough. I kind of want to dig into a little more&nbsp;&nbsp; research and not bore you guys without giving&nbsp; you some selections. So, if you want to check&nbsp;&nbsp; out my X account at Hustlepedia, I'll probably&nbsp; have some strikes for tonight's Trump speech and&nbsp;&nbsp;
I will post those later on my X account. The one&nbsp; thing I can tell you guys for Trump speeches is&nbsp;&nbsp; this software here, Mention Metrics, it&nbsp; is easily the best for Trump speeches. If&nbsp;&nbsp;
we just went back, let's just go back to&nbsp; Trump, what will Trump say this week? No,&nbsp;&nbsp; Fox News. I just want to show you guys how active&nbsp; and how good this tool is. So, we can look here.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Let's just say, so like I said, I've been doing&nbsp; a lot of not at this price. 94 cents is really&nbsp;&nbsp; expensive for Crypto No. But let's just say&nbsp; Crypto is the word we want to track. We want&nbsp;&nbsp;
to track Donald Trump. When's the last time this&nbsp; man even said crypto? He only says it one out of&nbsp;&nbsp; every five speeches. Basically 0.2 mentions every&nbsp; single speech. But you can go here to other words&nbsp;&nbsp;
like Biden. He says the word Biden three times&nbsp; every speech and you can see all the transcripts&nbsp;&nbsp; here. Mention Metrics. You get five free searches&nbsp; every month or you can do a paid subscription to&nbsp;&nbsp;
it. I'm not partnered with them at all. I just&nbsp; think the tool is really good if you want to,&nbsp;&nbsp; you know, just take a look at some data like,&nbsp; let's just go to Democrat. That's a good one.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Democrat. So, this is the type of stuff I kind&nbsp; of look at whenever it comes to He says the word&nbsp;&nbsp; Democrat 3.3 times every single speech. You can do&nbsp; this for every single term on here. China, Russia,&nbsp;&nbsp;
Fraud, ICE, Tariff. Yeah, Tariff's a good one.&nbsp; Let's take a look at Tariff because he certainly&nbsp;&nbsp; doesn't say it every time he talks, but he does&nbsp; love his tariffs. I mean, four and a half time&nbsp;&nbsp; per speech sometimes because he mentions it 18&nbsp; times in a single speech. That's kind of racking&nbsp;&nbsp;
up that number. But this is definitely one of the&nbsp; best tools for mention markets out there and would&nbsp;&nbsp; absolutely highly suggest at least trying out the&nbsp; free product because it has made me money across&nbsp;&nbsp; the Trump markets, Mamoudou markets and by the&nbsp; way Mamoudou is doing so many speeches. I think&nbsp;&nbsp;
we're going to have to start making a little bit&nbsp; of an adjustment. A lot of these speeches recently&nbsp;&nbsp; have been happening in the morning. So, to kind of&nbsp; spice up these streams and make them a little more&nbsp;&nbsp; fun and engaging where we're live trading and you&nbsp; can kind of see what goes into that while we're&nbsp;&nbsp;
listening to a speech, we'll try to schedule up&nbsp; the next Kalshi live stream during a live speech&nbsp;&nbsp; because they're just so much more fun that way.&nbsp; Here in about three weeks time, we will stream the&nbsp;&nbsp;
Jerome Powell FOMC meeting. We did that last month&nbsp; and we did profit pretty well on that. Trump also&nbsp;&nbsp; had a speech on the same day. So we'll do that&nbsp; in the coming week. I would say over the next few&nbsp;&nbsp; days, I'll figure out when some speeches are and&nbsp; we'll line up a live stream during those. I just&nbsp;&nbsp;
feel like they're much more fun and engaging&nbsp; and we can live trade these markets together. I'm going to wrap it up at this point in time&nbsp; just because some of these mention markets,&nbsp;&nbsp; the prices are not going to be, I think,&nbsp; favorable until these are in progress like&nbsp;&nbsp;
live. If the Fox News thing airs and it feels&nbsp; like he's just going on a Yes rampage, we can&nbsp;&nbsp; start taking some Yes strikes. But, currently&nbsp; speaking, we did win that Real Madrid trade,&nbsp;&nbsp; so that did just get paid out. We have No to over&nbsp; three and a half goals in Liverpool Arsenal. This&nbsp;&nbsp;
is now trading at 95. So, that's looking at pretty&nbsp; solid. We have Super Bowl No tonight in Miami,&nbsp;&nbsp; Ole Miss. We have Wind/Windy, Yes. In this game,&nbsp; I think they're going to say Wind is not a factor.&nbsp;&nbsp;
We have Yes to Playoff in Miami Chicago tonight&nbsp; in the NBA. And then last but not least,&nbsp;&nbsp; we have No Roughing the Passer in the Rams and&nbsp; Panthers game on Saturday morning. I'm actively&nbsp;&nbsp; looking for roughing the passers all weekend.&nbsp; That is something I want to take advantage of.&nbsp;&nbsp;
These teams can't make a mistake, like I said.&nbsp; So, that's going to be it for today's stream,&nbsp;&nbsp; guys. Like the video down below, subscribe to&nbsp; the channel for more. Every single week here,&nbsp;&nbsp; we will be streaming prediction markets. And like&nbsp; I said, going forward, we're going to try to line&nbsp;&nbsp;
these up during live events. I think it's just&nbsp; much more fun that way. But regardless, guys,&nbsp;&nbsp; like the video, subscribe, like the tweet&nbsp; or repost on X as well. And for some Trump&nbsp;&nbsp; selections tonight, I will post them on my X&nbsp; account at Hustlepedia. I'll see you guys on&nbsp;&nbsp;
the next one. As always, play well, my friends.&nbsp; Trade responsibly and stay bullish, my friends.
