---
title: 'F**K: "Restarting Strikes"'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=LU4FDsvAk4o'
video_id: 'LU4FDsvAk4o'
date: 2026-10-22
duration_sec: 1380
channel: 'Meet Kevin'
---

# F**K: "Restarting Strikes"

> Source: [F**K: "Restarting Strikes"](https://youtube.com/watch?v=LU4FDsvAk4o)

## Summary

The video analyzes current market turmoil driven by escalating US-Iran tensions, falling Treasury yields, and rising oil prices. The host, Kevin, discusses the likelihood of a nuclear deal, market predictions for the NASDAQ 100, and the impact of geopolitical posturing on financial markets.

### Key Points

- **Market Overview and Gold Decline** [00:02] — Markets are falling, gold is declining despite geopolitical tensions, attributed to the removal of the money printer. Gold is being sold to buy other assets like TLT, which is near a strong weekly support line.
- **TLT and Treasury Yields** [00:29] — TLT is bottoming out near 78.77, currently at 81.25. Yields have come down significantly, with the 10-year Treasury down 13.5 basis points and about to break below 5%. The call that 5.27% was near the top has been correct.
- **Middle East Tensions and Market Rumors** [01:39] — Social media commentary suggests a major escalation in the Middle East is imminent. Reports indicate Pakistan delivered an ultimatum to Iran regarding its nuclear program, which Iran rejected. The US is reportedly accelerating development of the GBU-76 Bravo, a successor to the 'mother of all bombs'.
- **Oil Prices and Market Fears** [04:19] — Brent crude is at a five-month high of $111 per barrel, causing airlines to suffer and raising fears of inflation. The market is combining fears of high oil prices with concerns about an AI bubble popping.
- **NASDAQ 100 Prediction** [05:18] — The host predicted in the alpha report that the NASDAQ 100 (Q's) would reject at 715 and fall to 707, with a potential buy-the-dip zone between 707 and 700. The rejection at 715 occurred as predicted, and the index is now near 150.
- **Iran's Offensive Strategy** [06:57] — Iran is revealing new offensive strategies, including targeting oil infrastructure and military bases if attacked. The Houthis are also stepping up attacks on Saudi Arabia. Iran's military is preparing for asymmetric warfare and has strengthened drone capabilities.
- **Economic Pain vs. Strategic Collapse** [08:13] — Iran's top security chief argues that economic pain and strategic collapse are not the same, indicating Iran is ready to attack more ships despite economic impact. The number of ships and tankers attacked daily is increasing.
- **Tanker-for-Tanker Strategy** [09:09] — The US's tanker-for-tanker strategy led to an escalation in September, causing markets to tank and 10-year Treasury yields to rise to 5.27-5.3%. The host previously called this peak fear, and the NASDAQ 100 dropped to 700.
- **Prediction Markets on Nuclear Deal** [10:03] — Prediction markets show only a 15% chance of a US-Iran nuclear deal before March 1, 2027, with $22 million in volume. The host suggests this might be an opportunity if a deal seems imminent.
- **Negotiation Sticking Points** [11:10] — The main sticking point is the length of restrictions on Iran's nuclear program. Trump wants a longer deal, while Iran refuses to give up highly enriched uranium. There is talk of diluting the uranium instead of removing it.
- **Deal Window Confidence** [12:08] — The host believes there is a 95% chance of a deal in the current window, which started October 20th. Confidence drops to 70% after October 29th and to 30% after the election on November 3rd, turning bearish for the winter.
- **Iranian Posturing** [13:57] — Iranians are puppeting a clown dressed as Donald Trump in a jail cell, and Iran is preparing the 'father of all bombs' as a response to the US's 'mother of all bombs'. This is seen as posturing before a potential deal.
- **Trump's Hint at Negotiations** [14:38] — Trump said the US is no longer negotiating with Iran but also said 'we could leave now, but we want to make sure it lasts for a long time,' which the host interprets as a hint that a deal is being negotiated, with the length being the key issue.
- **Uranium Enrichment Stalemate** [15:31] — Trump is calling for zero uranium enrichment, while Iran sees it as a right. Iran's security chief says no enriched uranium will leave the country. The IAEA suggests diluting the highly enriched uranium as a compromise.
- **Framework for a Deal** [17:12] — The US is looking for a verifiable long-term commitment from Iran to not rebuild its nuclear program. JD Vance's point about 60% enriched fuel aligns with the dilution idea. The host sees a framework for a deal emerging despite the aggressive posturing.
- **US-Israel Strike Plans** [18:56] — The New York Times reports the US and Israel have developed specific plans for restarting strikes after the midterms, targeting Iran's nuclear facilities. However, Trump has repeatedly pulled back at the last minute, and oil price spikes may deter him.
- **Iran's 'Father of All Bombs'** [20:06] — Iran is now talking about using the 'father of all bombs', a reference to the US's 'mother of all bombs'. The host finds this coincidental and notes the German-sounding name, adding to the tension.
- **Market Volatility and Buying the Dip** [21:17] — The host reiterates that every day brings closer to the bear case, but also closer to a deal. He likes buying the dip at the 707 line or even 700, which is where the market is currently bouncing.

## Transcript

What the heck is going on in markets today? Well, as a usual, as the market is going poopy, you've got gold also going down because obviously gold can't keep it up. Now, in fairness, and we're going to talk about what's going on with
Iran here, but in fairness, usually you think gold would be going up during war or market going down or whatever. When you take the money printer away, it's really hard for gold to go up. So, you really need Kevin Worsh to exit the Fed
for gold to start moving against. It's kind of not a surprise gold gets sold so people can buy other things like what are they buying? Probably things like TLT. TLT we've been talking about as bottoming out on a very strong weekly
line of 7877. We are now sitting just above that at uh 8125. And this about 25ish year bond duration
And this about 25ish year bond duration fund uh is moving in the same direction as the 10-year yield. Uh so in other words, TLT stock goes up as yields come down and yields have really come down nicely even in the face of more pain
around what's happening with Iran. We made a call that 5.27 was pretty dang near the top and that the rise was slowing. This has been the correct call so far on gold. It's been the correct call so far on the 10-year Treasury. And
the 10-year Treasury is about to break below 5%. It's down 13.5 basis points today, which is great. The problem is the stock market is not enjoying this the stock market is not enjoying this because there are a lot of rumors that
things are about to get a whole lot worse in the Middle East. Take a look at uh some of this commentary here on social media. You have you guys have no idea how bad it's about to get in the Middle East. Total disaster inbound. And
yes, it's Trump fault. Trump's fault, says this uh guy over here, Mr. Brandon says this uh guy over here, Mr. Brandon W. Let's go, Brandon. Got over here. Pakistan's army chief carried a final ultimatum to Thran during his visit
yesterday, demanding that Iran must concede its entire nuclear program or face large-scale attacks aimed primarily at Pickax Mountain. Iran rejected it, telling the Pakistanis the US must accept Iran's seven conditions and told
accept Iran's seven conditions and told him to get back on his plane. Yeah, this is exactly the kind of aggression that you would expect for a tweet over here. You've got this person called War Radar saying, "I think the US could have a big
surprise for Iran." There are reports the US is moving very fast on the GBU76 Bravo, which is expected to eventually succeed the GBU57, which was the mother of all bombs, the bunker buster massive ordinance penetrator that was used
during Operation Midnight Hammer in the summer of 2025 uh to bomb Ford and Esvahan and Natans. And they argue that if the US is really accelerating this Washington is preparing a capability that it could use it against Iran's
deepest facilities such as Pickax Mountain. I personally think we're nowhere near being able to use that weapon given that the uh Air Force literally put out their requests for proposal in June for this weapon.
I'm not entirely sure how you could go for requests for proposal in June to for requests for proposal in June to actually having a nearly you know up to 11 ton bomb in 4 months. I don't think that's realistic but whatever that's
Twitter for you or X here you also have one Saudi resident was killed in attacks Wednesday at an airport. Many more were injured in other attacks. We'll see that in just a moment. Uh Trump, "We are not negotiating with Iran. Something will
happen fairly soon," says Donald Trump. And extremely heavy US Air Force aerial activity being recorded above southern Syria and along the Iraq Iran border.
Trump triple promised that strikes won't happen this weekend, not until after happen this weekend, not until after midterms, but it would still be bad. So that's kind of a little bit of a setup for what is getting people relatively
nervous in markets right now. One reason we're seeing yields down, gold just goes down anyway. But look at Brent. We are now at a five uh five month high on now at a five uh five month high on Brent. Uh sitting at $111 per barrel.
Not great. The airlines are already suffering from these prices. obviously extends into uh the broader stock market and the potential fear that inflation expectations will expand. And so the market is combining fears on high oil
market is combining fears on high oil prices with fears that oh no uh the AI bubble is going to pop. Everybody needs to fund raise more. It really should be raise more. They've been very blunt that
the big suckening is coming. But one thing that is very interesting is this uh this morning and yesterday morning in the alpha membership we talked about the thing we mentioned yesterday in the alpha report was that I suspected that
alpha report was that I suspected that SpaceX would end up rejecting 165 166 on profit taking. We have a line right here at 16523. You can see we failed a breakout over here. came off of 165. And after that,
we wrote this as a prediction in the alpha report in black and white yesterday. We said that's going to be a takerit and it'll go right back down to 150. And folks, here it is right at the 150 level. On the Q's, we've been
looking at a rejection on 7:15. We basically got a perfect rejection on 7:15. And our belief is that the best time to buy the dip is between 707 and 700. And so if you want those sort of shout outs, remember you can get those
before the market opens up every single day uh the market is open with rare exception if I'm sick or traveling or whatever. Uh over at reinvest one.com. year because that's when lifetime access goes away. If you lock it in before
that, you'll get lifetime access to everything we have, including the alpha membership, the trade alerts, the reinvest stocks terminal, the homes terminal, the research terminal, the all nine courses, the course member live
streams, the agentic AI blueprint for consumers and for businesses, which is consumers and for businesses, which is huge. All coming uh and uh we'd love for you to be in it and get access to all of this before that lifetime access goes
away. If you join now before the end of the year, you lock it in. Uh, and join next price increase. That said, let's keep talking about specifically what's going on with Iran. And Al Jazer gives
us a little bit of color. First, Al Jazzer jumps in over here uh and it suggests that Iran is revealing these new offensive strategies
that their goal for the war is now going to transition to uh if they end up getting attacked to attacking more oil infrastructure in the region and more military bases as part of their new quote unquote offensive
strategy. Uh this is contributing to oil prices rising. Uh and this aggression from the Iranian military is coming at the same time as the Houthis are
stepping up their attacks on uh different areas of Saudi Arabia uh and over here, we can see Iranian general says the country's forces are ready for
asymmetric warfare. Iranian military has strengthened its drone capabilities, adding that lessons were learned from the two USIsraeli wars against the country. In other words, they're stepping up, preparing for uh this
renewed conflict. Each side is sort of flexing right now. You know, Donald Trump, we're ready for more strikes. We're conducting training exercises over Iraq. Iran's like, we're ready to blow up more energy infrastructure.
Everybody's flexing their muscles right now. Brendan hits fivemon high. We've a look at this. Economic pain and strategic collapse are not the same thing, says Iran's top security chief. This individual in an interview arguing
that, hey, the United States thinks they can make us get forced into a deal by um making Iranian families suffer because their investments are getting damaged. Uh families are paying the price. Some sectors of the economy will become more
difficult to sustain. But the United States needs to know that economic pain and strategic collapse are not the same thing. And so even though yes, these things are having an impact on our economy. We're ready anytime here to
attack more ships. In fact, Alazer is already indicating that the number of ships and tankers attacked every single day is increasing. Mind you that the uh
United States has come up with this tanker fortanker strategy that they were using pretty aggressively at the beginning of September. Unfortunately uh that tanker fortanker strategy really led to an escalation that ended up
leading uh markets to tank at the beginning of September and into the middle of September where we saw uh 10ear Treasury yields go all the way up 10ear Treasury yields go all the way up to about that 5.27 275.3 region. Uh
that's where we previously said, hey, for September, this is this is probably peak fear and we got down to about 700 on the NASDAQ 100. Not there yet. We are above that right now. Uh but is there a chance we could revisit that if the
United States decides to return to that tanker fortanker strategy? Sure. Uh you can see right now on the prediction markets that the odds of a deal are
markets that the odds of a deal are fading. You can see here in a US Iran nuclear deal on this prediction market which has $22 million worth of volume. which has $22 million worth of volume. Right now there is only a 15% chance of
a deal before March 1st, 2027 on an actual nuclear deal, not just a ceasefire. So the bar for this is relatively high given that there's an expectation we could have a ceasefire and then talk about a nuclear deal after
that. We'll get some updates on where the negotiations stand in a moment. Uh but you know if if you thought a deal was imminent that that and a nuclear deal was going to be attached to that that might be an opportunity given that
it's only 15 cents on a yes right now. Uh if you do ever want to sign up for the prediction markets, remember you could use our sponsored coupon code here or uh code meet Kevin when you sign up for Kelsey. They are a sponsor of my
startup reinvest. So make sure you go to kshi.com/r/mevin and you'll get a free $25 when you sign up for Cali and make your first trade. You can also scan this QR code. But where do we stand on the negotiation
right now? Where do we stand on the odds of a deal? Let's talk about this uh right now. So, here's my take. Uh I think and and we're going to see these notes in just a moment, but Donald Trump basically wants more restrictions for
longer on the Iranian nuclear program. That seems to be where the negotiation is held up right now. Uh it it seems to be held up on the length of how long at least the tentative deal. Remember that theou in the summer did not include
to talk about the nuclear deal in the future. Well, once bitten, twice shy, Donald Trump is now suggesting, wow, we should do a nuclear deal with a ceasefire. Okay, and this is where Trump seems to be right now is that he wants a
longer deal on restrictions. Iran also does not want to give up any of the highlyenriched uranium that they have. However, there is talk about potentially diluting some of that highlyenriched uranium, which could align with the
security chief suggesting that not an ounce of uh this highlyenriched uranium will leave the country. Uh this is my confidence chart on a deal. So, I believe right now we are in the window of opportunity to make a deal. This is
where I think we have a 95% chance of making a deal. I'm very confident that we're going to make a deal. I could be wrong and I will admit to you once we get past this date if we don't have a deal that I was wrong but I believe we
are in the midst of the deal window right now. I believe that the deal window started on October 20th and that's actually when we've seen sort of aggression ramp up which typically happens before a deal. I think that deal
window collapses by about 25% on the 29th because that'll be after the Fed elections. Uh, so I think that deal window goes from 95% confidence down to
70% on the 29th, but we still have a good deal window between the 29th and the 4th. However, after the election, which is on the 3rd, after the election, the near term dropped to 30%. And this starts getting bearish. So, I should
make a little note uh off into the distance over here that over here we start getting a little bit uh you know bear mode for the winter. So, over here
that's bare mode and then this is sort of like buy the dip mode over here and deal, you could also just buy the dip at that point. None of this personalized financial advice. I don't know your situation, right? I don't think now is
But uh let's look at some of the other notes here to see this. Take a look at this. Right now there seems to be talk that quote unquote negotiations are stalled on uh each side. Uh and the Iranians are literally puppeting a clown
Iranians are literally puppeting a clown dressed as Donald Trump uh inside of dressed as Donald Trump uh inside of basically this jail cell above a square in Tran. That's what the Iranians are up to right
That's what the Iranians are up to right now. So you could kind of evaluate some of the fate of the negotiation I suppose on that. The Iranian forces say they're at stages of preparing the father of all bombs which I feel like is sort of a
slam on us you know developing a larger mother of all bombs. Iran has also shifted uh its strategy to make uh future attacks by the US and Israel more costly. This is again that posturing. Now, where do we sit on
negotiations? So, here's where we sit. On Wednesday, Donald Trump said that the US was no longer negotiating with Thran. But then he also said it'll leave very soon. We could leave now, but we want to make
could leave now, but we want to make sure it lasts for a long time. It lasts for a long time. That is actually a hint in my opinion. That is a pretty blunt hint that Donald Trump is that there is a deal that is being negotiated.
However, one of the things that's remaining is how long is this deal going to last? Is this going to be a 60-day deal? Is this going to be a two-year deal? Is this going to be a five-year deal? What's this JCPOA 2.0 basically
going to look like? And so, one of the sticking points seems to be the length of this deal, as I mentioned on my whiteboard. If we scroll down over here, this one. Yeah, it was over here. Okay. If we look over here, a comprehensive
deal that was not hashed out last time was problematic. Now we have Donald Trump calling for zero uranium enrichment, which is obviously a point of contention because Iran sees it as their god-given right to enrich uranium.
So that makes it feel like we're in a stalemate. But then you look over here and Iran's security chief says that not a particle of enriched uranium will exit Iran. But this is where the IAA comes in and
says, "Hey, but we could dilute some of your highlyenriched uranium," which would then make it true that not a particle would leave, but we could still do a deal because we're just going to dilute the highlyenriched uranium uh
that you want. Now, previously, Donald Trump wanted to remove all of the highlyenriched uranium out of Iran. He wanted it either destroyed, buried, or given to the United States. He didn't want to give in to China or Russia,
said it was destroyed and buried and no human could get to it, but we want it. Okay, Donald. Um, there were also rumors at one point that the United States would go in and extract it, which was also kind of wild. But anyway, uh,
Donald Trump, yeah, here you see some of those notes. But anyway, uh Donald Trump now potentially leaning towards, okay, you guys can keep it, but we want to dilute it and we want restrictions on how much enrichment you all are going to
be able to do. So, that seems to be where negotiations sit right now. Now, uh Iran says they're reiterating they're not trying to produce a nuke. Obviously, everybody doubt uh you know doubts that and the US is now looking for some kind
of assurance that Iran is willing to make a long-term deal that is verifiable that is a verifiable commitment to not rebuild the nuclear program. You would verify this by going back towards uh nuclear inspections which the IAEA says
are actually able to be restarted very quickly. Tran must make a meaningful reduction in its nuclear enrichment capacity. JD Vance said last month, if they don't want a nuclear weapon, why do you need 60% enriched fuel? This is a
good point by JD Vance and it sort of aligns with, hey, you guys don't have to give up all of your nuclear stuff, but like if you're not trying to get a bomb, uranium? Why don't we dilute it? And this shows us like the more we keep
reading about this, the more we see that the framework for a deal is actually in place. like each side is talking and flexing really aggressively, but if you they're saying, they're actually aligning with the same thing. On one
hand, you got Vance going, "Hey, why do you guys need highlyenriched uranium?" "We're not going to let any highlyenriched uranium leave." Okay, so we could dilute it, which would make both of those claims true. But it lets
both of the sides flex the hardest possible, right? Hey, we're not going to give up enrichment. Okay, but then we need to verify that you guys aren't going for nuclear bombs. And then you get the IAEA coming in going, hey, we
could start inspections really quickly. So like you all these things are actually aligning around this muscle flexing of you know every single time right before we get a deal we get the most intense fear. I mean look at this
New York Times transcript. The New York Times says the US is stepping up exercises in anticipation of new attacks with the Israelis. This includes flying planes over Iraq to practice strike maneuvers. The US has learned or the
Times has learned that the US and Israel have developed specific plans for restarting strikes after the midterms. It's not clear if they'll actually have repeatedly been on the brink of returning to major combat operations
only for Donald Trump to pull the plug at the last minute. If attacks do go forward, they're likely to target Iran's nuclear facilities such as Pickax Mountain. Uh with some officials hoping that one more big round of attacks will
push Iran's economy over the edge. Others are doubtful that that's exactly what needs to be done because every time oil prices spike, Donald Trump ends up tacoing. I kind of think we're setting up for a giant big fat taco. But, you
know, I could see how in the meantime people are a little uh a little nervous, especially given that Iran is now talking about using newer, more advanced weapons, including the father of all bombs, which again is a reference to
this right here. Trump was asked about Washington considering to use its massive ordinance air blast bomb, widely known as the mother of all bombs. I don't think it's a coincidence that Iran, Middle Eastern country, is now
like, "Vivo is the father of all bombs." I also don't know why all of a sudden I also don't know why all of a sudden they sound German. But if any of that makes you nervous, you could get life insurance in as little as 5 minutes. You
can go to meet Kevin.com/life and you can get the same life insurance that your boy Kevin uses. It's actually a really easy form to fill out and I you go to meet.com/life. They're a sponsor of the channel, meet
literally within five minutes, you could be Apple paying for it and have life family. Even if you're young, it's actually cheaper if you're younger, right? So, very important. Uh but anyway, uh this gives us some more color
anyway, uh this gives us some more color on why this negotiation on why this negotiation feels like muscle flexing is happening on both sides. But there's frustration because that makes it feel like we're
getting closer to strikes because we are. Again, the way to look at this is every single day that goes by, we get closer to the bare case. So that is true, but it could simultaneously be true that we are closer to a deal as we
true that we are closer to a deal as we get closer to no deal. Stock markets do not like that kind of volatility. I like the idea of buying the dip at my 707 line or even between like or the 700 line if you really want
to be aggressive. We are literally bouncing at this right now. This is frankly what we called in the alpha report. Reject 715. You're going to 707.
alpha report yet, you're miss you're missing out. I think we've got some always perfect, but at least you could get that sort of setup for the day. So, if you're interested in trading setups for the day, if you're interested in,
you know, longerterm fundamental analysis or whatever, my perspective, Always want to be transparent about that. I'm not trying to, uh, you know, sell you on some crystal ball, but I do think that, uh, there are some really
cool things that we do in the, uh, uh, the group and, uh, you'll get access to the reinvest one terminal if you join us over at reinvest one.com. So, uh, that's the scoop for Iran and the market going poopy poopy. If you like that video,
to love it. >> Why not advertise these things that you knows about this. >> We'll we'll try a little advertising and >> Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to
>> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.