[00:01] As you know, I've been trading as a swing trader for a long time now, many years. I've gone through my day trading phase, and today I still try to trading, but I've specialized in swing
[00:14] main reasons are explained throughout the channel; I'll leave some videos here in the description where I explain why I think swing trading n't just want to talk about the concept of being a swing trader; I also want to
[00:28] add another point: showing you some of my setups. Perhaps the most winning setup I have... I've already talked about my setups as a trader a few times; those that I don't think I would do again because they didn't work out. In this
[00:42] case, I'm going to show you the two ways of trading, the two typical entries that I find most effective, that generate the most profit for me, at least in recent years, and I want to explain the reasons why I choose them. I want you to see, above all, the objective
[00:56] lately that there's a lot of confusion when it comes to creating strategies. seeing, when they start out, find methodologies that are very
[01:08] beautiful, really beautiful, so to speak. When someone adopts them, they're not like pip-level trading or looking for very large movements after a very complex structural analysis of what the price is doing. And I
[01:23] want to add, I want to open up the possibilities a bit more by explaining what by explaining what simplify their entry point as much as possible so
[01:38] that their reaction time, their ability to concentrate, and the error bias that exists between what you analyze and what you execute—because in the end, a trader is an executor, not an analyst—are minimal. That gap that exists between what you
[01:52] you can execute should be as small as possible. I'm seeing many of you lately complicating things. You're very good at doing analyses analyzing what...  What you could have done, according to your analysis, could have been an
[02:07] incredible trade. But in the end, you're not able to put that into practice. You're not able to execute perfectly, or with a high probability, done. And I assure you that this is one of the main factors I've seen
[02:20] that causes most traders to fall short of results. They try to intellectualize or overthink everything involved in market analysis and charts. It seems that the more variables you have, the more
[02:33] labels you put on what the price is doing, the more you think you know and earn. But in reality, I assure you that's not the case. experience I've seen with other traders who earn much, much more
[02:47] than me, it's not like that. You have to simplify decision-making so that the goal is to manage correctly, so that you make the right decision at the right time, when that setup appears, and then from there,
[03:02] risk manager, which is what being a trader is all about.  The more details you include, the more elements you analyze, the more complex the analysis you do before entering a trade, the harder it will be to transfer that to a real-world environment consistently and repeatedly. That's why I'm
[03:16] harder it will be to transfer that to a real-world environment consistently and repeatedly. That's why I'm two strategies. Look, first I'm going to share with you what I 'm doing on Darwin x0. As you know, you have the link
[03:30] pinned comment—a discount link for Darwin x0. Darwin x0 is a platform where you trade in demo mode and build a track record. For 38 a month, you gain access to
[03:44] certain numbers, which, as you can see for yourselves on the platform, aren't unreasonable. But they also give you all the possible statistics about your strategy, which is what really
[03:56] has value. Take a look at Darwin x0; believe me, it's the right place to learn how to do it. Trading and spending the least amount of money possible, you'll learn everything you can with this tool, with this platform, and you wo
[04:08] n't lose all your money in the attempt. Take a look. If we look at the last month, more or less,
[04:30] last month there have been a total of 139 trades. The maximum downside has been 380 euros out of a balance of 100,000. I'm using very little risk. The growth has been 1000, almost 1500, that is, 1.5%.   Well,
[04:45] basically, here we have that the success rate of the strategy right now is 60%, and a 40% stop loss. That is, the success rate is 60%, and the risk- reward ratio, as you can see here, is 30 pips for
[05:02] reward ratio, as you can see here, is 30 pips for profit and about 17 pips for the stop loss. That means a 181%, more or less, including commissions, a 171%, 60%. time. This will balance out, it will tend to balance out, but it benefits
[05:16] the operation of many trades. I trade all currencies, so there are many opportunities. Okay, having seen this, and I repeat, with this I don't are used to this channel know, that I 'm trying to say is that you should do
[05:30] the best trader in the world at all. I do n't intend to teach a method or a strategy here. You know that my purpose is different. I'm here to contribute the psychological aspect to the world of trading, so...  If you're watching
[05:45] channel where I'm going to sell you a trading course or teach you a foolproof method. That's do is broaden your perspective on what can be done with
[06:00] to trade; there are different traders in the world, and we do different things, and each one seeks their own balance. Therefore, I bring many other see what they do. So, I'm not trying to tell you to do exactly what I
[06:14] 'm showing you. I just want to add another factor to our discussion, which is: Hey, I see you're overcomplicating things in terms of reduce the number of trades you can make in the market, reduce the
[06:29] sample size, and therefore the significance of that sample. Furthermore, that complexity such exhaustive analysis is very difficult to translate into real-time analysis. I've truly seen it.  I've dealt with many of you, I've
[06:42] seen what you do, and in demo you're incredible. In the past, you're incredible, but in real time, when you have to execute what you've prepared, analysis paralysis sets in, doubts creep in, FOMO sets in. There are
[06:55] many problems that, unfortunately, are what will distance you from the final results. Okay, okay, let's see, for example, the New Zealand euro, which I traded a few days ago, or yesterday, I think it was. Let's drag all the
[07:08] Let's drag all the trades: this one here, this one here, this one here, trades: this one here, this one here, this one here, and this one here. Okay, what I'm looking for is to trade on the H4 timeframe, as you know, and then I look for the trade on
[07:22] on lower timeframes, but every 4 hours I check the market. So, for 15 or 20 minutes, the trades start to be executed, either by me or my colleagues, depending on who's on board. So,
[07:37] main objective of this type of trading, which I do in my setup—this is my giving me the best results lately, and obviously it has a date of  Expiration, that is, it depends a lot on the volatility that exists in the market. And how I adapt
[07:51] to it, I'll explain why. I look for moments when the price deviates from its average, according to what generates certain typical deviations. That is, when the price should have made a certain movement (x), if in the same time it
[08:05] usually makes a movement (x points), on that same day it makes more, that the price is overextended or underextended, depending on whether it is bullish or bearish, as you are seeing on the screen. So, if that happens, what I
[08:20] are seeing, in Bollinger Bands, for example, about extensions. The Bollinger Band itself already includes that standard deviation, but I go, for Investing. But there are others, which is a currency volatility calculator where
[08:34] you can put, for example, in the last, I don't know, a quarter, or the last 12 weeks, what the average volatility has been for each of the currencies that
[08:55] Let's take the last month; I always do the same thing: I look at the last quarters, the last semester, and the last month. We see an average of 167 pips, and the last semester had 164. That means it's been about six months with a volatility
[09:09] that would be around 160-180 pips, okay, 150-180 pips. What is this information telling me? It's telling me that if I 'm, let's imagine, I don't see on the H4 chart that the price is rising, increasingly, it's overextending according to
[09:27] rising vertically. You see it? Unlike what a vertically. You see it? Unlike what a growing very vertically. I have that verticality
[09:40] measured; I don't need to tell you. Because nothing happens because of that. It's verticality. I see that it's increasing in terms of standard deviations. I see that Bollinger Bands is informing me about...  This also includes the volatility that
[09:52] wider, which is giving me information that the price is overextending bullishly. And then, when that happens, we see the following: if the price on the same day, as you can see, this is the range in one hour
[10:05] of the day. Here, the day opened and the trading time was here. Ah, the orders were placed from 4 pm onwards, more or less, which is every 4 hours. If I look at the daily volatility of this currency, I see that it's
[10:17] of this currency, I see that it's at 150 pips. You see? That is to say, this at 150 pips. You see? That is to say, this currency, this asset, in a single day, has already reached its average volatility of the last few months before the
[10:30] probability that I estimate is that when this happens, there will be some kind of pullback, okay? Therefore, what I do is start shorting. Okay, in start shorting. Okay, in this case, notice that here I started the
[10:43] first short and it was a profit. Then, here I put another short, here I put another, here I put another, and here I put another. You see?  The strategy, as you can see, when volatility increases—that is,
[10:58] rise—in this case, it was the first trade. From there, I build the position as much as I can. The intention is always to make that move; it's practically impossible. I don't want to rack my brain
[11:13] impossible. I don't want to rack my brain trying to pinpoint the exact moment the price will turn because the reaction time it would take to estimate that would significantly reduce my results. This means that what I do is, the
[11:26] price start to move vertically on higher timeframes, I switch to lower timeframes and observe that the price is making small downward movements. Here, as we can see, the price
[11:41] starts to fall, making a small movement which I caught here. happen again. It's possible that the price will continue to rise, as happened here. Notice that I entered my first trade here, and it was a loss. My first trade
[11:54] ended at less than 1 pip.  My second trade ended in a break-even. My third trade ended up 11 pips higher, and it was the last trade that gave me the profit, ending up 25 pips higher. Also, I'm increasing my position. I
[12:10] estimate that the price might deviate from its average, it starts to increase pullbacks, but I don't know when they'll happen, and this could keep going up without stopping because I don't have a crystal ball that knows where the price is going to go. So,
[12:24] if the price keeps going up, I would one trade here, another trade here, another here, another here, another here. I would keep accumulating trades until when. You might ask, I accumulate trades by taking a
[12:37] for example, who have a maximum maximum account risk. Therefore, if I use a certain capital and a lot size, that lot size helps me calculate roughly that if the price goes 70-something
[12:52] roughly that if the price goes 70-something average daily volatility, that is, if out of the 100-160 pips of average volatility it goes another 80, for example, in the opposite direction from the maximum it
[13:06] has reached, there surely with the calculation I have done, this is what my colleagues traded in the calculation I have done, we would end up losing a maximum estimate of 2% of my account if the price rises a lot, up to
[13:20] 2% of my account, and that implies that the calculation we have done represents that the price has deviated more than 70% or 75% of its average daily deviation, you would close the positions, okay, we would have a lot accumulated, some
[13:34] perhaps at profit, others would be at stop, and we would end up closing, okay. What kind of... Why do I want to tell you this? Notice that here the strategy has no more secret than estimating verticality through Bollinger Bands of
[13:47] standard deviation and seeing the average daily volatility of the currencies when that is destroyed, when that product, that asset, deviates from its normality. I I look for long positions, even if it's bearish. It doesn't matter so much; I don't spend
[14:04] time interpreting exactly where to enter. Notice again that there are many entries, some are stops and others are profits. What matters is that the terminal ends up positive when it's executed. When this
[14:17] executes automatically. Then the positions are closed. the positions are closed. This is a strategy that carries depending on market volatility, it can sometimes
[14:30] have if you don't close the accounts properly can be high. That's why it's be high. That's why it's important that
[14:53] But that's not realistic. In the test, I have a close to 70-78%, with a much lower risk-reward ratio, even approaching negative. So, in the long run, when I have a major setback, when
[15:08] a significant drop occurs, this doesn't make sense from my point of view mentally if it's not aligned, if it's not high ratios. So what I do is have this type of entry on one
[15:22] can quickly explain, is like a minute reversal. That is, the price deviates and I make pullbacks, but then we have another one with high ratios to balance these types of
[15:35] What kind of high ratios are they? What kind of strategy is it? Well, basically, let's imagine the price. I say this because I do n't have a pre-made entry here, I've already here, but the strategy would be the following, and I'm sure it will sound very familiar
[15:48] some of you do. Look at this price segment, which, I you do. Look at this price segment, which, I trading. Okay, notice that the price here makes a very
[16:04] easily identifiable movement from its upper Bollinger Band. It grows without generating a pullback that crosses the same use Bollinger Bands to look at price deviations. That is,
[16:18] speed it does so.  Basically, what is the amplitude of its movement, range, etc.? Here we are seeing that the price is coming from a is lower. The volatility rises a lot, reaching a maximum without
[16:33] generating an identifiable pullback, and when it makes the pullback you see here, this pullback crosses, for the first time in this period, the Bollinger Band average since it has made lows and highs. And from here, the
[16:46] price reaches what many consider discount levels. Okay, my trade would be from here. Here I would have one trade, here I would have another trade, and here I would have another trade. With the stop loss here
[17:01] below when the price closes below. Why? Because looking for long positions, looking for targets here, surely at the higher bodies. Why? Because looking for high ratios. Notice that if the price does this, it has grown at a
[17:15] certain rate. What I would do here is measure how long it took to get price and how long it took in the same movement to reach the same price in the opposite direction. Visually, you can interpret that the
[17:27] violently than it rose before; it's catching  The reverse verticality isn't falling much faster than it has previously risen, giving very useful information, and that is, incentivizing sales. Here, it's
[17:40] encouraging people to sell because of the aggressiveness of the price, especially after do. I think it's fine; I don't even look at that, I deviation, blah blah blah, and the volatility. Then the price falls, it
[17:54] starts to generate a very violent downward movement, and I estimate that the risk level at which I think the price will continue to believe that there are many people here who are going short, so
[18:06] surely many will quickly set breakeven points, they will start to place short positions, they will place stops here. What I'm looking for is for it to be like a slingshot. The price reaches a point, it stretches like a slingshot, and boom, it lets itself be
[18:19] know when that's going to happen because it can happen here, here, here. It can estimate is that if the price closes below with a candlestick, I will definitely exit this position, no matter what. But in the meantime, since I don't know what will happen
[18:34] price crosses the Bollinger Band, and what it's telling me again is that the verticality, the violence of crossing it has been much greater than what it had here, and it's moving much faster, I start to put a long position
[18:48] here with a lower risk. This is the least likely scenario because it's unlikely that it will suddenly go that way. If I'm going to risk 2% of my account, or 1%, or whatever, here I weight the risk with,
[19:00] for example, 33%. Okay, here I'll put 33% of my position. The weight, and the following trade will have a little more weight. As I get closer to the stop loss, I load the position with more weight than the initial one because the
[19:15] happening here versus the probability of it happening here is higher. But not only that,  which also reduces my target risk, since if I load a position here with more weight than here and build the position here, when it closes below here, the potential risk it will have
[19:28] is much lower than it has here. Let me explain: as the price moves away from my main entry point, which is my first attempt, the position is loaded, so that when I finish accumulating
[19:40] positions here with a maximum, obviously the potential risk I can have when it crosses this will be around what I've set: 1%, 1.5%, 2% of the 's different from day traders, I'm talking about swing traders. In this case, it
[19:54] the probability of this type of strategy, the success rate, is very low. It will be around, I don't know, 20% to 25%, 30% with very good ratios of 4 to 1, 4 to
[20:07] 30% with very good ratios of 4 to 1, 4 to 1, 5 to 1. Okay, but it has very high stop-loss runs, very, very high runs that not everyone is able to tolerate. And if I...  The only thing I want to show you is
[20:19] that the execution is very simple. The structural idea of the strategy is based on the fact that currencies generate range-bound movements that don't create very large movements in terms of trend, neither in one direction nor the
[20:31] other. How do I know this? I look at currency volatility, and when it deviates from that volatility in a trend, I estimate that it will start to range again, that is, that it will then, here, the same thing happens: since currency prices normally move in
[20:45] ranges, as you can see, the movements are not very large. When the price moves, it moves violently, with a lot of volatility, in a direction expect it to return to the range again and go looking for the previous highs.
[20:59] In this case, notice that it is based on the fact that currencies... the structure of this currencies move in ranges. If currencies move in ranges... Unlike other financial products like the Nasdaq or the...  The C500, which is bullish, has an
[21:12] upward structure, as does gold. Where I recommend, or would recommend, or would do, I look for more long positions than short ones. Here, I don't do that. Here, I take advantage of the idiosyncrasies of currencies to profit from the movements that occur in the
[21:24] weekly—in this case, more weekly than daily— and I balance it with two
[21:43] the drawdown I can assume is very high. Psychologically, I don't know if I would be able to continue executing the trades in the same way if stops until the profit is realized. So, the other strategy, the other setup,
[21:57] allows me to balance my psychology a bit. I see many profits regularly, to balance things out. Okay? So, traders, that's all for today. I hope you liked it.  I hope you explanation a little, that you understood it, that I conveyed the
[22:10] message correctly. I'm not telling you to do this, as I always say, I'm not an example of understand that someone is making trading videos without trying to sell a method, but I can't teach you this or sell you this because it depends a lot
[22:23] capital—I needed a lot of capital to be able to do this type of trading—and your personality and profile. There are many things, really. Don't believe anyone who sells you an infallible method that you'll be able to replicate
[22:37] ideas from different people. You'll have to think about what kind of trader profile you are, whether you're looking to be a swing trader or a day trader. There are many factors that will mean that perhaps you won't execute this the same way
[22:51] we do. I needed two other people to allow me to do this well.  From constant support in terms of capital and psychological support, to not give up and
[23:05] keep doing the same thing when I have long losing streaks, there are many factors that are difficult to convey if you don't do it yourselves. So, use this information above all to see that you don't have to overcomplicate the operation and the analysis. Don't
[23:18] dedicate so much time to analyzing markets because you're not analysts; as traders, you're executors, and as executors, you have to dedicate more time to how you enter the market than to thinking about how you're going to get in.
[23:30] Think more about how you're going to exit and how to maximize the profit from that exit, and not so much about how you have to analyze the charts and nobody has a crystal ball, and nobody can be so perfect as to
[23:43] market movement. Okay, guys, that's all. My work is done. any opinions you have in the comments, and I'll see you in the next video. to give an extero; take a look. Trust me, it's worth it.
[23:58] Trust me, it's worth it. Bye, and have a great time.  profit