--- title: 'Gold Repeats a Dangerous Pattern' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=XOWbU6nfDjY' video_id: 'XOWbU6nfDjY' date: 2026-07-24 duration_sec: 510 channel: 'IKIGAI' --- # Gold Repeats a Dangerous Pattern > Source: [Gold Repeats a Dangerous Pattern](https://youtube.com/watch?v=XOWbU6nfDjY) ## Summary The video analyzes gold's price history and current patterns, suggesting a major correction may be imminent. The presenter identifies a recurring psychological pattern (double top) that has preceded deep corrections in gold over the past 20 years, and argues that the current market structure mirrors these historical setups. He outlines a near-term upward correction to $4,500-$5,000, followed by a deeper decline toward $3,000. ### Key Points - **Historical Correction Patterns** [00:02] — Gold's 20-year weekly chart shows a deep correction from 1980-2000. Similar patterns (impulsive rise + double top) preceded corrections in 2020 and earlier. - **Current Pattern Matches History** [01:40] — Gold surged 250% over 3 years, forming a double top pattern. This mirrors previous setups that led to deep corrections. - **Minor vs Major Correction** [02:09] — The current 30% drop from the high is likely a minor correction. A final wave of growth may occur before a multi-decade correction. - **Initial Diagonal Structure** [02:36] — On the 4-hour chart, a narrowing range (initial diagonal) indicates a downward trend. Five extremes (1-2-3-4-5) confirm the pattern. - **Upward Correction Targets** [03:16] — Fibonacci levels suggest an upward correction to $4,500 (0.382) and $5,000 (0.18). After that, a decline below $3,900 is expected. - **Global Downside Target** [04:44] — On the daily chart, the 0.382 Fibonacci level was reached. A break below could lead to $3,000 (0.618), aligning with the double top pattern target. - **Anomaly: Gold and S&P 500 Rising Together** [06:13] — Both gold and S&P 500 are rising, indicating conflicting investor expectations. This anomaly suggests a potential crisis ahead. - **Final Wave Before Major Correction** [07:22] — Gold may see one more impulse wave up before a deep, multi-decade correction. Key buying levels: $4,000 and below $3,000. ### Conclusion The presenter expects a short-term gold rally to $4,500-$5,000, followed by a decline to $3,000. He advises buying at key levels for a final wave before a major correction. ## Transcript 20 years. I opened the weekly time frame, and pay attention to the time frame, and pay attention to the period from 1980 to 2000. This was an extremely deep and long-lasting correction. And now we are close to the beginning of the formation of a correction of the same scale. Hello everyone, friends. My name is Sergey. This is the Ikigai channel. This video provides an analysis of gold and an action plan. Let's get started together. Let's start with history. Let's look at how deep corrections of varying magnitudes have previously begun in gold . Let's say, in this case, we see that after the impulse growth of gold, a certain psychological pattern has formed, which is expressed by a double top. And after that, after this structure, a deeper correction began. This is the first option. Next, we look a little to the right and again see an impulsive rise in gold, after which the same psychological pattern formed, which is expressed by a double top. And after the formation of this figure, we began a deeper correction. Let's move on with you. Let's zoom out a bit and look at the formation of a correction at a lower degree compared to those we've been looking at. Here in 2020, after the impulse growth of gold, we again see the formation of the same psychological pattern, and then we began a deep correction. That is, all these corrections, although they have different scales, began the same way. There was a sharp, impulsive rise in gold. Next we see the formation of the same pattern, after which a deep correction began. If we look at the current situation, we see the same sharp impulse growth of gold. Over the past 3 years, gold has risen by a whopping 250%. And then the formation of the same psychological pattern, which is expressed by the double peak. That is, everything repeats itself, everything is cyclical. At the moment, gold has already corrected by 30% from the global high, but I suspect this is just the beginning. As you may recall, a few minutes ago I said that we would soon be expecting a correction of this magnitude. I assume that the current correction is a minor degree correction. That is, after this we will see another final wave of growth. And after this final wave, gold will go into correction for several decades. What is my vision based on? Let me open the local picture, the four-hour time frame, and we'll look at the structure of this downward movement. Here we have a structure of gradual narrowing of the range. This is the initial diagonal, the structure that just starts any trend. In this case, it is a downward trend within the correction. After doing a little fiddling with the trend-based Fibonacci extension, I have mathematically determined that all the rules are followed. That is, we have before us a clear structure of the initial diagonal. This structure consists of five extremes. That is 1 2 3 4 5. We see a gradual narrowing of the range. And after the formation of the fifth wave, a correction occurs. That is, in the near future, I assume that we will see the formation of an upward correction in gold. Let's define approximate targets for this upward correction, if we already have a current local minimum. I mark the Fibonacci correction levels for this movement. I'll make thicker lines for you so you can see it better. And these are our Fibonacci levels, based on the usual arithmetic scale. Accordingly, the targets for the upward correction are expressed by the Fibonacci level of 0382 and the level of 018. According to the quotes, this is approximately the quote of $4,500 and also $5,000. Excellent round quotes that serve as good targets for upward correction. Accordingly, after the implementation of any of these goals, either after the implementation of the first goal, or after the implementation of the second goal, I expect a continuation of the downward movement and an update of this local minimum. We have defined the local scenario and goals . That is, I’ll sum it up again . I expect an upward correction to begin soon with targets around $4,500 and $5,000. But after this upward correction, I expect a further decline and renewal of the minimum of $3,900. And now let's define the targets for further downward movement. For this I will open the daily time frame. For this impulse, which formed between corrections of a higher degree, I will mark the Fibonacci correction levels from the minimum to the maximum. And here we see how the price has reached the Fibonacci correction level of 0382, which may tell us that in the near future we will most likely see a reaction from this level and, accordingly, an upward correction. After this upward correction forms, we can expect a continuation of the downward movement to the Fibonacci level of 0618. For us, it is located at the psychologically significant level of $3,000. Also, a breakout of the Fibonacci correction level 0382 will simultaneously be a breakout of the neckline of the double top pattern. If we find the potential of this figure, which is equal to the distance of the first peak, and apply it to the breakout of the neckline, we will see that the figure's potential converges with the Fibonacci level of 0618. Accordingly, after an upward correction upon breaking this level, the next target is $3,000. This is a more global scenario, and I don’t want to look that far ahead for now. We will first observe the development of the current upward correction. If suddenly something goes wrong, not according to plan, then I will, accordingly, notify you. But for now, this is our plan. I've marked the script , you can follow it. , you can follow it. share my actions and manage my portfolios. The link is in the description. I would also like to remind you that a sharp impulse growth in gold occurred during global economic crises. Below I have a chart of the S&P500 index. And then, after this crisis ended, a correction of the ended, a correction of the highest degree occurred. We are also seeing a sharp impulse rise in gold now, but there is an anomaly. As there is an anomaly. As gold prices rise, so does the S&P 500. This means investors simultaneously believe the index will continue to rise, factoring this into the price, and also believe the situation is unstable and something bad could happen soon. These are two completely opposite expectations. And, of course, one of these expectations will come true in the near future. And it is quite possible that this is precisely the expectation in terms of global negative events. Since we haven't yet seen a decline in the index, I therefore assume that gold hasn't yet entered a major correction, that is, a correction that will last for several decades. It is quite possible that we will see another impulse wave of growth in gold and only then will we go into a deep correction. This will happen after the crisis. This is my scenario. And based on this scenario, I would say that gold can still be purchased in small volumes at key levels in order to work out the final wave of growth before that very global correction of a higher degree. The key levels are the current $4,000 level and also the level just below $3,000. Some of them, for example, can be purchased now. and make further, more aggressive purchases after this local minimum is broken as the price moves toward level 018. Friends, if this review was helpful to you , I would be grateful for your support in the form of likes and comments. If you haven't subscribed to the channel yet, I recommend doing so to keep up with the literacy. I'd also like to remind you that we regular market reviews. The QR code has now appeared on your screen. I wish everyone all the best, profit, and victory. I love you all and bye to everyone profit, and victory. I love you all and bye to everyone .