[00:01] Sergey. You have reached the Kiga channel. I think you noticed that the preview is a bit provocative, that is, there will be zero bitcoins. And in fact, there are certain factors that point to such an outcome. And in this video I [00:16] will show them to you. And overall, the goal of this video is to convey to you that there is a high probability of a bear market starting in the near future. I suggest you watch this video and analyze all these factors yourself and, [00:29] accordingly, draw a conclusion so that you can create an action plan, so that you understand something in your head and make financial decisions based on this probability. Before we begin, let me remind you that we have a main [00:42] Telegram channel where we publish market reviews. The QR code appeared on the screen in front of you . There is also a Trading Diary channel where I publish the results of all my closed positions. Links are in the description. So, let's get started [00:54] . Let's start with time patterns that concern the duration of a bull market, the duration of cycles, halvings, and the like. And the first pattern is precisely the [01:08] duration of the bull market. That is, if we look at previous bull markets, we will see a certain pattern in that they lasted approximately the same amount of time. For example, the first Bitcoin bull market lasted 800 [01:22] days, while the second bull market lasted approximately 1.60 days. I took the minimum on the left as a basis, since this right was added only later. There is some kind of strange, incomprehensible shadow there, so I [01:37] always take as a basis the minimum that is on the left. Also, our third bull market also lasted 1.60 days. And the current bull market has already lasted for around 1,000 days. That is, based on this pattern, we can conclude [01:52] pattern, we can conclude that we are close to the end of the bull market. Now let's look directly at the duration of the cycle itself, that is, the time from setting a high to setting a new high. So, on the left we [02:05] see the global maximum of Bitcoin, which was set in December 2013. Next, we see a bear market and a bull market, respectively. A bull market plus a bear market equals a cycle. That is, the cycle is both an excess and a [02:19] bear market. And the next global maximum of Bitcoin was set in December maximum of Bitcoin was set in December 2017. It took about 1,500 days from high to high 2017. It took about 1,500 days from high to high . Next, let's look at the picture. [02:32] Bitcoin's next global high was reached in December 2021. And again, from high to high, approximately 1,500 days passed. That is, the time is the same. that bear markets have occurred in December: December 2013, December 2017, December [02:51] December 2013, December 2017, December 2021. And now I've marked the date December 2021. And now I've marked the date December 2025. And about 1,500 days have passed since December 2021 . That is, based on this time pattern, we can also [03:05] time pattern, we can also conclude that we are close to the beginning of a bear market. This was the duration of the cycle. Now let's look at the halvings. Bitcoin halvings also exhibit an interesting timing pattern. [03:19] As far as we know, Bitcoin halvings happen regularly. And, for example, the Halving halvings happen regularly. And, for example, the Halving was in July 2016. If we look at what happened after the Halving, it was a rise that lasted for about 500 days and [03:34] set a global maximum. That is, after we had a halving, the price would rise for about 500 days, and then a bear market would begin. In 2020, we see the same picture. That is, the Halving occurred in May of the [03:50] twentieth year. And then the price continued to rise for about 550 days. And the price eventually hit a global high and went into a bear market. And [04:03] went into a bear market. And our last halving was in April 2024. And as far as we can see, everything is repeated perfectly. That is, we see growth after the halving, which has already lasted for approximately 550 days. What conclusion can we draw from this [04:18] ? Each time after the halving, Bitcoin rose for about 500 days and then a Bitcoin rose for about 500 days and then a bear market began. That is, based on this pattern, we can also conclude that a [04:33] bear market will begin in the near future. So, we have finished with the time patterns , and now we move directly to those patterns that concern price movements. So, here are all the Bitcoin bull and bear [04:48] markets. If I take the trend- based Fibonacci extension tool and measure every bull and bear market, we find some interesting patterns. Look how I have them set up, this is an [05:03] extension. That is, I left only level 0618 and level 0786. The expansion is built on three points. And I will put the first point at the beginning of the bull market in this place. the second point at the end of the bull market in 2013 and the third [05:20] end of the bull market in 2013 and the third point at the end of the bear market at this location. What do we see next on the chart? That is, after the bear market, the price rose and is, after the bear market, the price rose and reached the range from the Fibonacci level of [05:33] reached the range from the Fibonacci level of 0618 to the Fibonacci level of 0786. And then the bear market began. My Fibonacci expansion is, of course, based on a logarithmic scale, so that the picture is more objective. Let's move on [05:48] instrument again. Fibonacci extension based on trend. I place the first point at the beginning of the bull market in this place, the second point at the end of the bull place, the second point at the end of the bull market in 2017 and the third point at the [06:01] global minimum, which was set in December 2018. What do we see? The price reached this area again, from the Fibonacci level of 0618 to the level of 0786. It was from this area that our [06:16] deep correction, that is, the bear market, began. That is, a certain pattern can already be traced. If I take this instrument again and mark it against the previous bull and bear markets, we will see that the price has already [06:32] entered this area from the Fibonacci level of 0618 to the level of 0786. And from this information, we can also conclude that a bear market will begin in the near future. Now I will move directly to wave [06:47] analysis. This is the type of analysis that is based on Fibonacci numbers, that is, a purely mathematical type of analysis, which for me personally is the most accurate. And first, I'll show you the big picture. That is, we see [07:03] that the bull market in Bitcoin has been going on since its inception, that is, approximately since 2008-2009. And all this time, bull and bear markets have been the same. This means that we have before us all one and the same [07:18] degree. That is, there has not yet been a major correction in Bitcoin. And a little later, I'll also demonstrate this using the S&P 500 as an example. In other words, a true global bear market in Bitcoin hasn't even happened yet. All of these were local corrections within the [07:32] framework of a single bull market in the global picture. Let me remind you that let's say, bull market also consists of bull markets of a lower degree. I suggested that this global Bitcoin bull market is an extended [07:48] five-wave structure. That is, one wave of a five-wave structure, usually the third wave, can stretch out, and visually we will have a nine-wave structure in front of us. In this case, I assume that we have an [08:00] extended third wave. And now, as far as we can see, all nine waves have already been formed visually. This means that the next bear market in Bitcoin cryptocurrency may be completely different from the previous one. For [08:14] example, it could be deeper, it could be longer, and it’s even possible that Bitcoin be longer, and it’s even possible that Bitcoin a correction is precisely what’s needed globally. This is what concerns the wave [08:28] structure. I also noted the Fibonacci extension based on the third wave. That is, I took this very expansion as the basis for the beginning of the third wave in the global picture and, accordingly, the end of the third wave. That is, [08:42] I marked the Fibonacci extension along this distance. I placed the third point at the end of the wave. And we see that the price has traveled exactly 162% of the distance of wave 3. Let me remind you that the most important targets for the price are the golden [08:58] important targets for the price are the golden ratios. That is, 0618, 1118, 2618 and so on. And now the price is at the golden ratio of 1618. Here I already have an extension based on the usual arithmetic scale of the chart. [09:13] That is, if I open a regular chart, this movement will look something like this . That is, yes, impulse, correction and impulse. This is a standard market movement, when this wave passes either 0.618, that [09:27] this wave passes either 0.618, that is, 62% of the first wave, or 162% of the first wave. And then comes the correction of the senior degree. So, this is the global picture. And the global picture tells us that a bear market, judging by [09:40] price movements, may begin in the near future. Now let's look at the local picture. This is a daily time frame. And I already said that every bull market consists of bull markets of a lower degree. Or, in other words, [09:54] each wave of the structure consists of waves of lower degree. Let's say that the fifth wave, which I marked in white, consists of five more waves of this consists of five more waves of this blue color. And now we can visually [10:07] see that a five-wave impulse has formed, with the waves that I noted. In other words, visually, the structure of the bull market, this local one that is currently underway, has already been formed. And a fun fact. If I [10:22] again note the Fibonacci expansion based on the third wave, only now in a local picture, then we again approach the golden section of 1618, golden section of 1618, that is, the fifth wave has passed 162% of [10:36] the distance of the third wave on a regular arithmetic scale. If I open a look something like this . Again, a standard market movement, after which a deep correction is more likely to begin [10:50] . Now we will move further into the local picture and look directly at the structure of the fifth wave of the blue color that I marked, that is, this wave. Again, each wave consists of five more waves of lower [11:05] degree. And the fifth wave of the structure, it can be the so-called ending diagonal. or if we switch to technical analysis terminology, this is a rising wedge figure, a trend change figure . And now we see how this very [11:20] figure is formed on the chart. Either it has already formed, or the fourth wave of this structure is now forming. And the movement may look something like this . And only then will we begin a full-fledged [11:33] bear market with the formation of this structure. That is, in the local picture we visually see that the bull market, its structure, has already been formed. Moreover, at the end of this bull market, a rising wedge, a trend reversal structure, is formed [11:45] . And this also tells us that a bear market is about to begin. So far we have only looked at Bitcoin, but there are also altcoins that [11:57] are correlated with Bitcoin, that depend on Bitcoin. And charts can also indicate upcoming movements in the Bitcoin cryptocurrency. and in general throughout the entire cryptocurrency market. First, let's compare Bitcoin dominance with [12:12] Bitcoin itself. Look, we see sharp downward impulses on the dominance, in this place and in this place. Now let's see what these impulses [12:24] meant for Bitcoin. Our first downward impulse occurred at the end of the bull market in 2017. That is, if I draw a line, then this is the very [12:36] end of the bull market and this is the downward impulse on Bitcoin dominance. That is, at the end of the bull market, funds began to flow sharply from Bitcoin to altcoins. We see the second strong downward impulse in this [12:51] We see the second strong downward impulse in this place, that is, in 2021. Again, I'll place, that is, in 2021. Again, I'll draw a line here, and accordingly, draw a line here, and accordingly, here we saw in 2021 how Bitcoin [13:03] here we saw in 2021 how Bitcoin reached its maximum and its dominance began to decline sharply. That is, the decrease in dominance also then indicated the establishment of a global maximum. Of course, the situation looked a little [13:16] different, that is, Bitcoin again reached this global maximum, and then a deep correction began. The thing is that I believe that the previous bear market was in the form of a sideways correction, that is, a flat that [13:28] looked like this. In fact, the bear market began at the beginning of 2021, although the global maximum was reached a little later. And now we see how Bitcoin's dominance has begun to decline sharply. And this may tell us that a [13:43] begun to decline sharply. And this may tell us that a . This means that funds will rapidly flow from Bitcoin to altcoins. But I want to note that, most likely, with dominance we will form a [13:58] triangle structure. This means that each subsequent wave will be smaller than the previous one. Therefore, the dominance of a may decrease by a certain percentage, clearly less than last time, and then begin to increase again. [14:12] Therefore, don’t expect the same Altizon as before. This cycle the al season will be different. And I want to remind you that the sharp decline in dominance began when, according to all time patterns, the beginning of a bear [14:28] market was close, and when, according to certain price patterns, we also determined the imminent beginning of a bear market. That is, all of this comes together for us. All factors are coming together to give us a higher probability that a [14:41] bear market will begin soon. It was a graph of dominance. Now let's move directly to the altcoin charts. Currently, altcoins are divided into three types. The first type is individual altcoins [14:54] that have grown and made an upward impulse. The second type are those is, the chart shows the potential for price movement that should be realized. And the third type of altcoins that look bad and that [15:08] point to further downward movement. In general, altizon is essentially a survivorship bias. Because 99% of altcoins failed, and only a few showed strong upward momentum. Therefore, in my analysis, [15:22] the majority of altcoins also have the potential for further decline, and only a few altcoins have growth potential, which is more likely to be realized. Let's get back to XRP. That is, on XRP we worked out this very impulse, [15:37] this very exit from the triangle upwards. And the price realized both the potential of the triangle on a regular scale and the targets at the Fibonacci levels. I want to remind you that a triangle always forms before the final wave of [15:51] any structure. Here, as far as we can see, our triangle is very global, and it formed within the framework of a bull market, within the framework of a wave of a higher degree. Therefore, this chart, the XRP cryptocurrency chart, hints to us that the [16:06] next bear market in cryptocurrency may be of a completely different scale. That is, it can be deeper and longer than the previous ones. And since the price has already realized its potential upon exiting the triangle, then, accordingly, a [16:20] bearish market may also begin, judging by this information, in the near future. This is the first type of altcoin. Now let's look at the second type of altcoins. That is, those altcoins that, judging by their structure, are yet to make that very [16:34] final impulse. These are altcoins such as, for example, Lтcoin. Here we also see a gradual narrowing of the range in the form of a triangle, but the price has not yet realized this final impulse. This final impulse could [16:48] come with a sharp decline in Bitcoin dominance, as an option. But even if this impulse occurs, the further picture indicates to us the beginning of a bear market of a very large scale, because a triangle [17:01] has formed in our global picture. And the third type of altcoins are altcoins like the Cake cryptocurrency. That is, here we see a clear downward trend, and then the formation of a certain range. And judging by the scenario that I [17:16] remain in this range for some time and then move downwards out of it. Let me remind you that 99% of altcoins will eventually crash. And, judging by their structure, the majority of altcoins are looking to decline. That is, yes, the price [17:31] some upward impulses within this range, but then the price will exit this range downwards and continue its downward movement. Moreover, judging by the structure, this may also happen in the near future. Here the range is [17:45] almost completely formed, and the price is ready to exit it downwards. So, we've briefly reviewed the altcoin landscape. Now let's look at what other financial markets are telling us. This is the dollar index. And let me remind you that the [17:58] dollar index and Bitcoin have an inverse correlation. That is, if the inverse correlation. That is, if the dollar index rises, then Bitcoin falls. If the dollar index falls, then Bitcoin rises. And at one time, we [18:10] successfully predicted the start of a regular market for the a possibility that the dollar index will soon reverse and begin an upward trend, which will signal the beginning of a bear market in the [18:25] Bitcoin cryptocurrency. Let's look at the dollar index chart. That is, we see a clear zigzag correction. And the price corrected the previous upward movement by 62%, that is, it reached the Fib correction level of 0618. [18:40] And wave C is approximately 100% of wave A. That is, this wave A is approximately equal to this wave. And this is one of the most likely targets for the completion of wave C. Of course, the price [18:54] may still decline here for some time, say, within the framework of a descending wedge structure of the ending diagonal. and then the trend will, and perhaps, reverse and become upward. But given that we have realized the most [19:08] likely target of the fall, which is in this range, then , judging by this information, we can assume the beginning of a bearish market in the Bitcoin cryptocurrency in the near future. Let's move on with you. Now let's look at [19:23] with you. Now let's look at the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P500 index. Pay attention to the picture on the left. So, on the left, in 2008, we had a crisis, which was reflected in the decline of the S&P 500 index. And I want to point out [19:37] that Bitcoin appeared in our country immediately after this crisis. And all this time, the S&P 500 index was in a bull market phase, as was Bitcoin in the global [19:50] picture. And that's why Bitcoin has S&P 500 hasn't had one. I'm talking about the global picture now. And, accordingly, [20:02] global picture now. And, accordingly, if the S&P 500 index were to experience a decline of similar proportions, that is, some kind of financial crisis, then, understandably, this would most likely also have a very [20:14] negative impact on Bitcoin. Let me remind you that Bitcoin was given value by people. If people suddenly lose faith in Bitcoin, if Bitcoin becomes uninteresting to people, then it could easily drop to zero and subsequently disappear. Therefore, if [20:29] some kind of economic crisis occurs in the world , that is, a decline of an extremely large scale, then Bitcoin could really be worth zero. And this negative scenario is realized, or maybe the opposite. That is, Bitcoin will be a kind of [20:43] salvation during this economic crisis. It was not for nothing that it appeared immediately after the end of the previous crisis. This is why I don't emphasize that Bitcoin might be zero and therefore you can't invest in it [20:55] I will invest in Bitcoin in the next bear market, but I am simply pricing in the risk that it might disappear afterwards. That is, this must be included in our risks. I hope the logic is clear. Well, now we are interested in the question: what is the likelihood of a [21:11] crisis starting in the near future? Let me give you a more global picture of the S&P 500 index. This is what it looks like. That is, we see a clear five-wave impulse. And, judging by the structure, we can assume that [21:25] a correction of the senior degree will begin in the near future . That is, visually a five-wave impulse is formed. I marked a trend line at the end of wave trend line. I also noted the Fib extension based on the [21:39] third wave and the price reached the golden ratio. And there is a possibility that this crisis will begin in the near future. And the decline within the framework of this degree that awaits us could be of a very large scale, for [21:52] example, like the decline in 1930, that is, on this scale. Of course , I hope this doesn't happen, but that's the cycle. In any case, due to cyclical nature, economic crises occur regularly, and [22:05] then the situation recovers. That is, we move in waves. There can't be constant eternal growth. a correction of the senior degree will definitely occur . The only question is when exactly it will come. And judging by the factors [22:18] that I saw on Bitcoin, it can 100% happen in the near future, but on the S&P 500 index it is still in question. I hope we'll continue to grow for another 50-100 years, but as you can see, judging by these factors, there's still [22:32] a chance of a major correction starting in the S&P 500. So, the question arises: what should we do then? Yes, some people, let's say, only bought altcoins. That is, for some reason they did not buy bitcoins, and they are in a [22:47] deep drawdown. And now, yes, I would recommend you to look at what the alt season will be like. It's possible that some of your altcoins will rise, but when Bitcoin dominance drops to a certain level, say 50%, and you see [23:00] that your altcoins haven't performed well, then you need to move your funds from altcoins into other assets. If we have a bear market in Bitcoin anytime soon, then as I said, I will [23:12] gradually accumulate it, even though it may end up worth zero. I'll just factor that into the risks. And by the way, a few months ago I started a new investment project where I show how I invest from [23:24] scratch in altcoins, stocks, other assets, and so on. I show all my purchases and all my sales on my Telegram channel. A link, a QR code appeared in front of you on the screen. We are currently successfully outperforming the returns of [23:37] all global indices. And how to protect yourself from a crisis is to demonstrate, because it is unknown whether a crisis will occur in the near future or not. But if it does come, then we must have some kind of safety cushion in the [23:52] form of precious metals, in the form of physical gold and silver. in gold and a smaller volume in silver. Therefore, if we have some kind of Armageddon scenario, where all the world's financial markets collapse, then [24:05] precious metals will save us in that case, or at least support us for some time. Well, let me remind you that any bear market, any crisis, is a time of opportunity. That is, if we see such a deep fall, then we must [24:18] definitely take advantage of this opportunity, because market corrections, especially global ones, are the best entry points. And you need to invest when everything is bad. but not everything is good when the price has fallen deeply [24:32] rather than risen greatly. This is the simplest possible principle. Buy low and principle. Buy low and sell high. Friends, if this video was helpful to you, be sure to give it a like and leave a [24:44] what you think about this whole situation and this video. Do ? I would also be interested in reading this. Subscribe to the the bell to stay up to date with the next videos that are useful to you. Also, [24:58] subscribe to all our resources on Telegram; links are in the description. And I wish everyone all the best, profit for everyone, win. I love everyone. And bye everyone. See you in the next video.