---
title: 'I Tracked 556 Parlay Bets in 2026 — Here''s What Actually Works'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=EboqS3KdeGg'
video_id: 'EboqS3KdeGg'
date: 2026-08-19
duration_sec: 840
channel: 'OddsJam: Sports Betting, Free Picks & Best Bets'
---

# I Tracked 556 Parlay Bets in 2026 — Here's What Actually Works

> Source: [I Tracked 556 Parlay Bets in 2026 — Here's What Actually Works](https://youtube.com/watch?v=EboqS3KdeGg)

## Summary

This video presents a mathematically grounded approach to parlays, showing why most bettors unknowingly bet with low win probabilities. The creator shares his 550+ tracked parlays, a 10.5% ROI, and walks through finding +EV legs, line shopping, fair price validation, and Kelly-calculated bet sizing.

### Key Points

- **The claim: 550+ tracked parlays and 10.5% ROI** [00:01] — The creator has placed over 550 tracked parlays using OddsJam in 2026 and holds a 10.5% ROI. The video is framed as an exact step-by-step walkthrough of how he builds profitable parlay slips.
- **Two-leg parlay math: -110 legs = 27.5% win chance** [00:44] — A two-leg parlay where each leg is -110 should pay +264. That payout corresponds to a 27.5% chance of winning, and odds and win probability must always be considered together.
- **Adding legs destroys your win probability** [01:14] — Adding a third -110 leg drops you to roughly 14% win chance, a fourth to 7.5%, and a fifth to just under 4% — before you even consider individual player or team performance.
- **Line shopping transforms a losing bet into a winning one** [02:37] — The same three-leg parlay pays +491 on FanDuel but +752 on DraftKings, meaning $491 vs $852 for the same picks. One book makes the bet -EV, the other flips it to +EV.
- **The strategy works for DFS and props** [03:47] — The approach applies to PrizePicks, Underdog, and any sportsbook, whether it's player props, moneylines, spreads, or totals. The creator says he has made nearly $1,500 just on PrizePicks this year.
- **Two-leg and three-leg parlays offer sane variance** [04:40] — Since a two-leg -110 parlay has a 27.5% win chance, going home winning 30% of these slips is profitable. Five-leg or bigger bundles create extreme variance and require long losing streaks to weather.
- **Using the OddsJam +EV scanner** [05:45] — The creator sets the plus EV tool to DraftKings, focuses on MLB, NBA, and NHL player props, and uses odds ranges around -200 to +125. For underdogs, he widens the range to +150/+200.
- **Parlay calculator confirms fair odds** [08:07] — With two legs at +115 and +104, a parlay calculator gives fair combined odds around +338/+339. If the sportsbook quotes anything below that, you are paying too much for the same outcome.
- **Multiply fair probabilities to get true parlay win rate** [09:27] — The probability column shows each leg's fair probability, e.g., 0.498 for Dort and 0.505 for Brown. Multiply them: 0.498 * 0.505 = 25.15%, the actual fair win percentage of the two-leg parlay.
- **Quarter Kelly calculates the stake** [09:56] — With a fair win percentage, the offered odds, and your bankroll, a Kelly calculator with quarter Kelly recommends a bet size. The video example shows about $75 on a parlay with just over 10% edge.
- **Same-game parlays are a trap** [11:28] — Sportsbooks bake correlation into same-game parlay prices. The example shows three Nuggets-Timberwolves legs have a fair $648 payout, but DraftKings pays only $595 — a $53 shortfall that grows with additional branches.
- **Volume is the forgotten ingredient** [13:12] — One or two parlays can't prove a strategy. With 550+ slips, a slight positive edge becomes real profit. A five-leg -110 parlay only needs a 10% win rate to profit, even if you lose nine of ten slips.

## Transcript

exactly the type of bet that you want to add to your parlay slip. A strong edge with an arb to a sharp sports book. In this video, I'm going to show you how to find plays like this to actually build you a profitable parlay betting
strategy. I've placed over 550 tracked parlays using Odds Jam in 2026, and I've brought back a 10 and 1/2% ROI this year. Today, I'm going to share with you my exact process, step-by-step, so that you can do the same thing. Before I show
you how to build a profitable parlay, I need to explain to you why most people's parlay strategies are mathematically destroying them. It's because they have no idea the actual fair win percentage that they have when they're building
parlays. So, in a classic two-leg parlay with each leg at minus 110 odds, you should be receiving odds of plus 264. Remember, all odds are associated with a win probability. It's a marriage for life. So, plus 264 means that you have a
27 and 1/2% chance of actually winning this parlay. That's on a two-leg. Now, let's move on to a three-leg. Adding a third leg at minus 110 odds gives us plus 596 in terms of a payout. We go from a 27 and 1/2% chance of winning
this parlay down to just under 14 and 1/2% On a four-leg parlay, adding a fourth leg at minus 110 odds, we're receiving odds of plus 1228. We go from just under 14 and 1/2% chance of winning a three-leg parlay now down to 7 and
1/2% chance on a four-leg parlay. And finally, if you add a fifth leg at minus 110 odds, our payout should be plus 2436. At plus 2436 on a five-leg parlay with each leg at minus 110 odds, we have just
under a 4% chance of actually winning this bet. This is before you even consider if you like Mahomes on his over or under or the Cowboys to cover the spread. So, the problem here is you're typically not cooking up a two-leg
parlay, which means if you're going in a three-leg parlay or worse at minus 110 odds, you have a 14% chance. But, most people just have no idea the actual fair win percentage that they have when they place a parlay. Whether you're placing
odds of minus 150 or plus 120 for each individual leg, you lose a couple of those four-leg parlays in a row, and you think the sportsbooks are in cahoots with the sports leagues, and you think that you just can't beat this game
most people do is they just go to their favorite sportsbook to cook up their parlay. They like this three-leg parlay with Wagner's under, Robinson's over, Dort's under. They're like, "Yo, I'm getting odds of plus 491, so 100 bucks
pays me out almost $500. This is amazing." But, if they just did a little line shopping instead of getting plus 491 odds on FanDuel, if they just simply went to DraftKings, they're going to be receiving odds of plus 752.
So, FanDuel's going to pay you out $491 for that three-leg parlay, but DraftKings is going to pay you out $852 for the same exact parlay. There is no line shopping done by the casual better.
dollars on the table playing this at FanDuel compared to DraftKings. So, with all three of those legs on FanDuel, they have negative expected value. But, if you're receiving a better price, which turned this into positive expected
value. So, think about it this way. If you have a genuine edge on a play like Lu Dort under on his threes at 7%, then add the Wagner play that also has an edge, and combine them together, that's the recipe for success with creating
parlays. And it doesn't matter if it's just DraftKings or FanDuel, this also works with the DFS books like PrizePicks and Underdog. I've made almost $1,500 this year just on PrizePicks. So, this applies to any type of sportsbook when
it comes to parlays. Doesn't matter if it's player props, money lines, spreads, totals, it's all the same strategy. So, what most people don't understand is if you play a five-leg parlay consistently at minus 110 odds, well, as we talked
about, you have less than a 4% chance of winning this parlay, which means if you winning this parlay, which means if you are able to win 10% of your parlays at these specific odds consistently, then you are extremely profitable. The
problem is is that you're going to lose 90% of those parlays, but still make a ton of money. Most people can't handle losing nine out of 10 of their plays. And if you lost nine straight parlays in a row, but you hit that 10th leg, you
would be very profitable playing five-leg parlays at minus 110 odds. The problem is most people don't have that kind of patience or confidence in their own strategy. Sticking with two-leg parlays at minus 110 odds, well, that
gives us a 27.5% chance. So, if you can win 30% of these slips, you're going to be profitable, which means that the variance is less crazy than it is when
it comes to your five-leg parlays. So, for you cooking up five, six, seven, eight-leg parlays, you're introducing way more variance into your specific slips, which means you might lose a whole bunch of them, but if you hit one
out of maybe, say, 10 of those slips, you're going to be profitable. The to stay with that strategy. So, sticking with two and three-leg parlays, as we mentioned before, you have a higher win
probability, but you're still going to see some extreme variance from time to time. But, it greatly depends on the individual odds that you're putting on your parlays. If you had a two-leg parlay at minus 200 odds for each leg,
this gives us a fair chance of plus 125 odds, or a 44.5% chance. So, depending on the type of legs that you are adding to your parlay can definitely reduce or increase your variance. Now, let's go through the Odds
Jam plus EV tool so I could show you my setup and then you can tinker with this try Oddjam one week for free and save 35% off your first month after the one week trial ends, use code Billy 35. It'll be linked in the description
that you're looking to create your parlay with. I'm just going to focus on DraftKings at the moment. Looking at minus 200 odds to plus 125. Again, if you increase this number to plus 150 or plus 200, you're introducing more
want to keep this nice and tight, you could put a minus 125 here on the favorites. Now, when it comes to the D Vig settings, you have some different options. If you're going after more underdogs, those plus 150s, those plus
200s, I would go with additive. But if you're sticking into this odds range, completely fine. And then everything else just depends on the sports and the leagues and what's going on the calendar and what you want to focus on. So I just
have MLB, NBA, and NHL selected. Just looking at player props. All of these individual plays on this screen have an edge. So if you wanted to cook up a four-leg parlay and add all four of these plays here, understand that you're
going to have then a very low fair win percentage. But if you just took Dort going to have a higher win percentage and less variance. Something else that you want to pay attention to is that this is a traditional two-leg parlay
with Dort and Brown because this game here with Lu Dort is completely different from the Nuggets and the Timberwolves game. Once you get into same game parlays, that's when the books will start to really mess around with
your price. They bake in positive or negative correlation within your same game parlay, and so you're not always going to receive a fair price. But with traditional parlays, meaning taking Dort, Brown, Burleson, Robinson, all
four of these events are not connected to one another. So you're going to receive a fair price from the sports book because this is a traditional parlay. Now, let's walk through a couple of steps when it comes to building this
able to understand so that number one, you know the price that you're receiving is fair, and number two, we can also figure out how much money you should put on this parlay because most bettors have no idea and they just randomly guess or
whatever they feel is going to be a good bet. The first thing that you want to do All these calculators are free over here at Odds Jam, guys, and open up a parlay calculator. Next, we're receiving odds of +115 for Dort and +104 for Brown. So,
calculator, as you can see, I already have a random dollar amount inputted, but 115 and 104, which means I should be receiving roughly +338 or +339 odds on
this two-leg parlay. The reason that we use this calculator is because we're as you can see here at the bottom, we're receiving +338 odds. We use this we're receiving the correct price from DraftKings and not getting ripped off.
because we're de-vigging to Pinnacle, remember, we're removing the vig from their price, and Pinnacle's saying, "Yo, we should be receiving +101 odds on the Dort play and basically -102 odds on Christian Brown." So, what you want to
do, if you want to see this column right here, open up the filter section. Scroll this is where you're going to be able to check on probability. Make sure that probability is checked on to the right or the blue is appearing. That's where
you can see that win percentage on your plus EV page. The next step is trying to figure out how much money do we put on this parlay? Well, remember, odds and together. So, we're going to remove this decimal point two spots over to the
left, so 0.498. And remember, it's a two-leg parlay. We need both legs to hit in order to cash, so we need to multiply the Dort leg with Brown's leg. So, we're going to take 0.498 * 0.505, which gives us a 25.15
if you round up here, fair win percentage. That's our actual win percentage that we have, but remember because each of these legs have positive what we should. So, the next thing that we're going to do, now that we know what
to open up a Kelly calculator. I recommend using quarter Kelly when it comes to your sports betting, then the odds that we're receiving from DraftKings, which is +338, and then our fair win percentage. Now, your bank roll
going to set this up in your settings under your profile over here at Odds Jam. I'm being told that this parlay has just over a 10% edge, and I should wager $75 on this parlay pertaining to my bank
going to do. I double-check that the odds are still the same here over on DraftKings. I'm making sure that I'm taking advantage of the edge based off my bank roll, but I'm not overexposed. I'm not putting $500 down on this
parlay. I'm looking at my bank roll, the edge that we have, and then placing the appropriate amount of money on this play. further, and you just don't want to play a two-leg parlay, you want to add
Burleson and Robinson, or you wanted to add more legs, you just need to know what the fair win percentage is, and then multiply that together. So, for Burleson, it's 0.598, and then if we wanted to add Robinson,
Multiply this together, and you're going to see when we move this decimal point to see when we move this decimal point two spots to the right, we have a 6.9% chance of winning this bet, so 7%. If you don't use a calculator to figure out
should be putting down on this parlay, you're guessing. You're either overexposing yourself, or you're not taking advantage of the edge that you parlay, or a 20-leg parlay. As I mentioned before, this is a traditional
ripped off in price. But, what you're going to notice is if you wanted to add more legs to maybe just the Thunder-Suns game or the T-Wolves-Nuggets game, payout from the sportsbooks when it
comes to SGPs because they bake in some type of correlation within their pricing. That's why they advertise SGP so much. It's an incredible rip-off to you as a better and it's an incredible advantage as the sports book. Why should
you care about this? Because when this parlay hits, you're not going to get paid out as much as you actually should. So, the more times that you play SGPs going to the sports book's pocket instead of yours. To show you an example
of how a sports book rips you off with SGPs, I took the top three plays here from the Nuggets-T-Wolves game. Brown's under, Reed's under, Johnson's over. Through all three of these odds into a parlay calculator, plus 104, minus 123,
minus 133, a $100 parlay should pay us out odds of plus 548. So, it means we're making $548 in profit for a grand total payout of $648.
Over on DraftKings, the same three legs that we just inputted from the plus EV tool, we're only getting paid out plus 495. So, our grand total payout is $595.
Odds Jam told us we should get paid out a grand total of $648 minus the 595 that DraftKings is going to give us a payout of if this parlay hits. That's $53 that doesn't come into our pocket if this parlay hits and goes
to DraftKings. This only gets worse in terms of your payout of what you should receive compared to what you are receiving when you add more legs to the SGP. If you found value in the content thus far, make sure to smash that
button, and tap that bell notification so you don't miss the next video that we drop. Something else that you need to take away from this video, volume. We're in April as of recording. I've placed over 550 parlays thus far. If you take
video and place one or two parleys and lose, you're not going to be able to see the true advantage of plus EV show up for you over the course of the long run. Volume and getting down each individual leg that has an edge, that's the recipe
maybe immediate success in the beginning, stick with this process and you will end up profitable. For my DFS players, pairing this strategy with the video that's popping up on the stream, Clark is going to break down exactly how
to crush PrizePicks and the DFS apps with another specific strategy.