[00:00] Bitcoin could be entering the phase that historically creates some of crypto's biggest moves, while Ethereum could be heading toward a major price target above $10,000. One of the biggest Bitcoin bulls, Jack Mallers, argues that Bitcoin is the asset most sensitive to fiat liquidity,
[00:16] and that when liquidity starts flowing, Bitcoin can react faster and further than almost anything else. He believes its fixed supply gives it a major advantage over assets that can be continually produced, And he sees Bitcoin potentially growing from a $1.5 trillion asset towards $10 trillion as adoption and monetization increase.
[00:37] But the timing could be even more important. Tom Lee believes the crypto market may have already bottomed, suggesting Bitcoin could already be around 90% of the way through the bottom on price and 95% through it on time.
[00:50] He argues that waiting for the perfect entry could mean missing the opportunity to buy near the lows. And Lee has an even bigger outlook for Ethereum. With stablecoins, AI-driven crypto demand, and Wall Street building new settlement rails on crypto,
[01:05] he believes Ethereum could easily rise above $10,000 in the next one to two years. In this video, we'll break down Jack Mallers' Bitcoin thesis, Tom Lee's bottom call, and the forces that could drive the next major move across Bitcoin and Ethereum.
[01:19] And before we jump into it, just a quick reminder, only a small percentage of you watching are actually subscribed. If you're getting value from the videos, hit that subscribe button. It's free, it supports the channel, and you can always change your mind later.
[01:32] Now, let's begin. Bitcoin has always been the most sensitive asset to fiat liquidity, and it's its greatest marketing engine. You know, I adore, and there's a place in my heart for people that say, well, I'm not in it for the price, I'm in it for the technology, and I appreciate that, and that's very cute,
[01:47] but the reality is the price is all that matters. It tells us how much of the world is really monetizing this thing, and it's our greatest marketing asset. And I think once fiat liquidity starts to josh, Bitcoin's always the most sensitive and its price always reacts the furthest and the farthest. And it's always
[02:02] the fastest horse. And there's a recursive loop there. So when do we get into that loop? Soon. That's all I can say. But I'm very confident in that, especially looking at things like the 10-year yield and Scott Bessett wiggling around over there trying to figure out what
[02:15] to do. And, you know, a lot of our viewers are broadly diversified, right? They're Bitcoiners, but they have other assets as well. And as they see Besant intervening or starting to take more action and they see this picture start to develop, it has to become more clear to them,
[02:30] whether it's the Treasury situation we're in combined with AI innovation and the decompression happening there and the deflationary effects and Bitcoin monetizing. Are there any other assets or business models that stand to benefit from that
[02:44] or is it truly Bitcoin only? For me, it's Bitcoin only. Hey, listen, you have to do the research into your comfort level. I guess, theoretically, gold is also a reasonable trade, something that's relatively fixed.
[02:58] No one should be working and storing in something that someone else can print is my very basic thesis. But Bitcoin has been historically a far greater performer than gold, and I think it's almost a science.
[03:12] It's because it's so much scarcer. It's so much harder to print than gold. Even a 2% inflation rate, as we all know, it's better than 10%, but it's a lot higher than zero. I mean, Bitcoin gives you that finite promise.
[03:26] And so for me, Bitcoin is the obvious asset to hold. Bitcoin has historically been one of the most liquidity-sensitive assets in global markets, and Jack Mallers believes that relationship could become extremely important again.
[03:41] His argument is straightforward. When fiat liquidity expands, Bitcoin tends to react aggressively because its supply cannot be increased to meet demand. That thesis is especially relevant right now because the macro environment is still sending mixed signals.
[03:56] The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in September, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4% while continuing to maintain ample reserves in the banking system.
[04:08] At the same time Treasury Secretary Scott Besson has been dealing with rising long borrowing costs including a Treasury buyback program that was expanded to billion That matters because Mallers is watching exactly these conditions
[04:22] He argues that once liquidity starts moving more decisively, Bitcoin can become the fastest moving major asset, creating a feedback loop where rising prices attract more attention,
[04:34] more capital, and ultimately more adoption. Bitcoin has already shown how powerful that mechanism can be, and if liquidity conditions eventually become more supportive. Mallers believes the same scarcity that makes Bitcoin volatile
[04:47] could also make its upside increasingly difficult to ignore. Over time, Bitcoin becomes the majority of people's net worth because for two reasons. One, they become increasingly more convicted and they're like, oh my goodness, this is perfected money.
[05:00] Or because it's just a 40, 50, 60 cagger asset, there's nothing that performs like that. It doesn't matter how much you initially started with. If you hold it for long enough, It just outperforms everything else you could possibly own.
[05:13] And so then all of our clients, they've got 20%, 50%, 70%, 90% of their net worth in this asset class. And if they sell it, they have a taxable event. And if they sell it, they no longer get upside. So when you can get a loan against it starting at something like 7.5%, it's a no-brainer.
[05:30] And so we're serving customers that aren't looking for fixed income yield in dollar terms, which is someone who's buying stretch. We're serving customers that are holding and saving in Bitcoin.
[05:42] It's becoming an increasing part of their financial life. And they want dollar liquidity because they need to buy a house. Their kid is getting married. They need to pay off old debt. There's a medical emergency. But 90% of their net worth is in this thing that's going up 50% a year on average.
[05:56] And if they sell it, they lose the upside and they got to pay tax. And so that is our most popular product at this point. and we're increasingly investing in it because we think a $1.5 trillion asset going on a $10 trillion asset,
[06:10] the demand is only going to grow the more Bitcoin is monetized. The Bitcoin thesis gets even more aggressive when Mallers looks beyond the next liquidity cycle and asks what happens if Bitcoin keeps outperforming traditional assets for years.
[06:25] His argument is that Bitcoin does not need to remain a small allocation forever. If people become increasingly convinced that it is a superior form of money or simply watch it outperform everything else over a long enough period, the allocation can naturally become much larger.
[06:42] Malaz points to clients who already have 20%, 50%, 70% or even 90% of their net worth in Bitcoin. For those holders, selling creates a difficult trade-off. They may owe taxes on the sale while giving up future exposure to an asset they believe will continue appreciating.
[07:00] That is why his company is seeing increasing demand for loans backed by Bitcoin, allowing holders to access dollars without immediately selling their Bitcoin. The scale of the opportunity is what makes this thesis especially bullish.
[07:15] Mallers believes Bitcoin could grow from roughly a $1.5 trillion asset toward $10 trillion as monetization expands. Bitcoin is currently trading around the upper $70,000 range after recently recovering above $80,000,
[07:30] showing that demand remains substantial despite the September volatility. And if Bitcoin continues attracting capital while its supply remains fixed, Mallers believes its role in personal wealth could become dramatically larger.
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[08:13] Start trading now through the link in the description, kalshi.com slash p slash crypto nutshell. Next up, let's hear. Money broadly is our time and energy in an abstracted form. It is the market good that represents the effort, the labor.
[08:27] I mean you two are working very hard launching the show and in return for that you theoretically are going to get money It is the market good that we not consuming we not eating it we not flying it we not living in it we acquiring it to save and then later exchange so if the money is bad it very
[08:42] destructive to our time and energy it robs us of our time and energy you have to work longer and harder to get a house you have to work longer and harder to get vacation you have to work longer and harder to have hours to pursue your artistic interest and if the money is good it actually
[08:55] gives you and rewards back time and energy. And so my whole thesis about Bitcoin and AI is that it frees us from the drudgery of money that doesn't allow us to save and be optimistic about our future and to have time and space
[09:12] to create. You know, the Wright brothers created flight on the gold standard. They were able to quit their jobs, have gold under the mattress and say, what if man could fly? and I think that a lot of society has been robbed of this race living paycheck to paycheck
[09:27] and the only free time you have is the commute on the train to listen to a podcast like this well what artist can you actually become and so I'm very hopeful that AI can take us away from the drudgery of white collar sludge nobody wants to do someone's taxes for a living and live paycheck
[09:44] to paycheck and be stressed out about owning a home and with Bitcoin it allows us to actually save and take hard-earned values that we're producing today and persisted into the future and the combination of those two might leave us in a state where we
[09:57] can freely create. Malice takes the Bitcoin argument beyond price and into a much bigger idea about how money affects the way people live. He describes money as stored time and energy. When money loses purchasing power the work people
[10:13] have already done becomes harder to preserve forcing them to spend more of of their lives earning enough to reach the same financial goals. That is where Bitcoin enters his broader thesis. Because Bitcoin has a fixed maximum supply, Mallers believes it can give people a way
[10:28] to preserve the value of their work over time rather than relying entirely on money that can be expanded by governments and central banks. He then connects that idea to artificial intelligence.
[10:40] AI could automate some of the repetitive work that currently consumes people's time, while Bitcoin could provide a scarce asset for saving the value created by that productivity. The combination, in his view, could give individuals more freedom to create, build businesses, pursue ideas,
[10:56] or simply spend less of their lives working to maintain their purchasing power. The AI side of this argument is becoming more tangible. The International Monetary Fund has estimated that artificial intelligence could affect almost 40% of jobs globally,
[11:12] making productivity and the distribution of economic gains increasingly important questions. For Malice, that makes Bitcoin part of a much larger technological transformation where preserving wealth and reducing repetitive work could ultimately create more room for human creativity.
[11:29] And if you want to stay ahead of these signals and know exactly when the market's heating up or when it's giving you those rare buying windows, I break it down every day in the crypto nutshell. my free five-minute daily crypto newsletter is built to give you quick, actionable insights
[11:42] so you can make smarter decisions without spending hours buried in charts or headlines. You'll get clear signals on when to buy, when to take profits, and the latest news that could move markets all delivered straight to your inbox.
[11:54] Just click the first link in the description, enter your email, and you're in. Are we at the bottom, or is the bottom ahead of us? I think we've bottomed. In fact, if you look at the past crypto cycles, the price print low wasn't exactly following the 1,064 days of Bitcoin.
[12:13] So, but there was a local low. So I think it's very possible Bitcoin's made its local low already. And then there's just a new local low, but it's not lower than the current low.
[12:27] And then in retrospect, everyone will say, oh, yeah, because you had to do an S&P 500 adjusted. and you know and that's a possibility or it'll be Nasdaq the Bitcoin Nasdaq ratio is actually low
[12:40] so the answer is I think if we 90 of the way through the bottom on both time let say we 95 on time and 90 on price I say unless you really a genius you know it buying it here
[12:56] is actually going to be at a better price point than trying to buy it one month into the low. So give a price prediction for ETH in 2027 or 2028.
[13:10] I mean, if we're thinking one to two years out and knowing that stablecoins got Ethereum to 5,000, but now we have not only AI driving demand for crypto
[13:24] and Wall Street building basically new settlement rails on crypto, on top of crypto being in the middle of a bull cycle, I would say just being in the bull cycle means
[13:38] Ethereum should be above 5,000, but then what are we layering on Wall Street tokenizing plus AI? So I think Ethereum could easily be over 10,000 in that time frame.
[13:53] Tom Lee is making a call that could become one of the most important parts of this entire cycle. He believes Bitcoin may have already reached its local bottom, meaning the market could be much closer to the next major advance than many investors realize.
[14:07] His argument is based on how previous crypto cycles behaved. Lee points out that the ultimate low does not always arrive exactly when the historical cycle timing model says it should.
[14:19] There can be a local low first, followed by a consolidation or another test that does not necessarily take Bitcoin below the current floor. That distinction matters because trying to identify the exact bottom can leave investors waiting while the market starts recovering.
[14:34] Lee estimates that the market could already be roughly 95% through the bottom on a time basis and 90% through it on price. Recent comments from Lee have remained consistent with that broader outlook.
[14:46] Fundstrat has continued publishing a bullish view on crypto, while its September research has pointed to improving upside demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum. There is still plenty of volatility, especially with the 10-year treasury yield recently reaching around 5%, but that does not invalidate Lee's core argument.
[15:03] If Bitcoin really is this late in the bottoming process, then the bigger question may no longer be where the exact low is, but how much upside could follow once the market turns decisively higher.
[15:16] Taken together, these two arguments point toward a broader thesis for the next phase of crypto. Jack Mallers is focused on Bitcoin's scarcity and its sensitivity to liquidity, while Tom Lee is looking at where the market sits within the cycle and what could happen as crypto demand expands again.
[15:32] For Bitcoin, Mallers believes the combination of fixed supply and increasing monetization can push the asset into a much larger role in global wealth. Lee's view adds an important timing element.
[15:44] If Bitcoin has already completed most of its bottoming process, investors may not get the perfectly obvious entry point they are waiting for. And the opportunity does not stop with Bitcoin. Lee sees Ethereum benefiting from several major sources of demand at the same time.
[16:00] Stablecoins have already demonstrated their ability to drive activity on Ethereum, while artificial intelligence is creating new demand across crypto and Wall Street is building tokenized financial infrastructure on blockchain networks.
[16:13] That is why Lee believes Ethereum could move above $10,000 over the next one to two years. The prediction depends on continued adoption, a new crypto bull cycle, and growing use of Ethereum for financial settlement.
[16:26] Meanwhile, Maller's Bitcoin thesis suggests that if liquidity becomes increasingly supportive, the hardest asset in the market could attract even more capital. The two outlooks ultimately converge on one major idea.
[16:40] If the cycle has already moved through its deepest phase and adoption continues expanding, Bitcoin and Ethereum could be entering a period where their previous valuations look increasingly small compared with the markets they are trying to capture.
[16:53] Anyway guys, that's all we have for today. Thanks for watching and I'll see you all in the next video.