[00:02] going to be breaking down my strategy, how I've made over $200,000 profit betting on the NBA, which I truly believe is the most profitable league to
[00:14] bet on. So, obviously, I didn't just do this all in one year. I've been very seriously sports betting for about 7 years. If you're new to this channel, I started my career as a quantitative trader on Wall Street. So, you'll also
[00:28] see a lot of trading videos on my channel. Trading is very similar to sports betting. But in this video, I am going to be showing you exactly how the sharps in professional sports betterers consistently beat the books on the NBA.
[00:42] So, the first thing I wanted to go through is why is NBA such an amazing sport to bet on? And the first thing is there's a lot of games. So, more games means more surface area for the books to cover, right? There's 82 games in the
[00:57] NBA regular season versus only 17 for the NFL. So, more games, more opportunity, more surface area for the books to cover. And also, your ROI will just compound faster because you can bet on the NBA every single day as opposed
[01:12] to the NFL where it's only a few days a week. So, another thing to mention about NBA betting specifically is there's still a lot of prop markets offered. So, for baseball, there's not as many prop betting markets. You can bet on guys to
[01:26] hit a home run, stuff like that. But in the NBA, there's just so many different markets you can bet on. I mean, on a Thursday night when there's only one NFL game, there may be 12 NBA games. And there's all these different player prop
[01:40] markets that you can bet on where sports books could slip up and offer value. Player points, points plus rebounds, assists, pas, steals, steals plus blocks. There's so many different markets, you know, double double, triple
[01:53] double. So, more markets. There's just so many different options for NBA betting. And that's a good thing. As a sports better, you want options. All a sports book is trying to do is keep their lines in check and price things
[02:07] properly. As a sharp better, we're trying to exploit mispricings. So, we want a lot of markets and a lot of games. Another thing to mention about why is the NBA so amazing is there's just a lot of line movement in the NFL.
[02:21] You don't really see players take rest days whereas it's very common obviously in the NBA for Giannis to sit out a few games or Curry right literally just a rest day. So, there's a lot of lineup news because you have to imagine and
[02:37] this probably makes sense if Steph Curry is sitting out. Every other player in the game, their odds need to move. Who's going to take over the scoring? Who's going to take over the passing? Who's going to take over his minutes? So, if
[02:51] Curry's ruled out, not only does the money line need to change, as well as the point spread in the total, but also other players on the Warriors, like Jimmy Butler, his points line will probably go higher because Curry, who's
[03:03] a big scorer for the Warriors, is out. So, Jimmy Butler's probably going to take more shots. So, all of this lineup news, NBA has so much lineup news, so much line movement, which is amazing for sports betterers. So, I'll give you an
[03:16] example of a play that I personally found and bet from the odds Jam middle betting tool. So, all sports books set their own unique lines. And basically, after lineup news in the Warriors game, this example is a little bit old. So,
[03:31] season. Obviously, players have changed teams. But after lineup news, on one book, his line was 19.5 points plus rebounds plus assists. On another book, rebounds plus assists. On another book, his line was 25. way different, right?
[03:46] 25% higher line on another book. So, guess what I did, right? I middle bet this. And this is a free play I gave out on social media. I give out basically all my plays 100% for free on either Twitter or Twitch. I like to live stream
[04:01] and just show exactly what I'm betting in a given moment. But what I did is I bet his over 19 half on one book, his under 25 on a different book. So, this is kind of like trading. As a sports better, you need to think different. You
[04:13] need to think like a trader, investor. Buy low, sell high. Bet is over 19 half, bet is under 25. If he has 20 to 25 points plus rebounds plus assists, I'll win both bets. Although technically, if he has exactly 25 PAS, points plus
[04:28] rebounds plus assists, you know, then the under 25 will push. It will be refunded. So, I'll just go one and 0 and have one bet refunded. But that's kind of beside the point. So these line discrepancies in massive middle bets,
[04:41] again this play was just from the odds jam middle tool. You don't really see this in other sports, at least anywhere close, especially in baseball. You don't see this at all in any other sport aside from basketball and professional
[04:54] basketball. The NBA for college, there's just a lot less prop markets that you can bet on. So that's why the NBA is an amazing sport. So much line movement, so much volatility. All these books set their own lines. So, whenever there's
[05:07] lineup news, crazy things happening, all these books need to adjust in unison. make mistakes. A lot of these sports books, right? They don't have unlimited resources. They have a couple traders, and sometimes you can catch them asleep
[05:21] at the wheel. So, NBA betting is an incredible sport. But the way I personally started NBA betting was with a strategy called arbitrage. So, I've made YouTube tutorials on arbitrage betting, like you can see one right
[05:34] here. And you'll also see a lot of people on social media talking about arbitrage and just how profitable it is. So, what exactly is arbitrage? Because it's kind of a big word is all that arbitrage is is because all these sports
[05:48] books set their own unique prices. Arbitrage is when two books, maybe FanDuel and DraftKings, maybe FanDuel and Bet MGM, who knows, right? when two books have such different odds that you can hedge for a guaranteed profit. You
[06:02] can play the over on one book, under on a different book to ensure a win. And it sounds crazy, but you have to remember every sports book has literally tens and tens and tens of thousands of odds up at any given time. For one NBA game,
[06:17] these different prop lines, money line, first half money line, quarter quarter spread, all these different markets. So sometimes you can catch books asleep at the wheel oftent times after lineup news and they're so different they have such
[06:32] different prices that you can literally just play them against each other play equal and opposite outcomes to ensure a profit. So you can see an example right here from Arbitron who's a very sharp professional sports better. He bet Brook
[06:45] Lopez's over on one book under on a different book to ensure a risk-free profit. So you can see the math on the screen right here for this arbitrage play. You can see his bets, right? Two different books. When you're arbitrage
[06:58] betting, you're always using at least two sports books. So you can see the math on the screen here. And if he goes over or under, he's making a risk-free guaranteed profit. Obviously, that's awesome. So, arbitrage betting, amazing
[07:10] strategy to start sports betting with in my opinion because even if you don't do it forever, like I started with arbitrage, but now I use all these different strategies like middle betting and positive EV betting. But it's a
[07:23] great strategy to start with because if you're doing it correctly, right, every single day you are going to make money. This is a risk-free profit betting strategy. You do not lose when you are arbitrage betting. You make money every
[07:36] day. So you'll grow confidence in your bankroll will grow quickly. Again, there's NBA games basically every day of the week. So your bankroll will grow quickly. You hit 10 arbitrage bets a day
[07:50] for $30 profit. You know, that's $300 a day over the course of a month, 30 days in a month, that's $9,000 profit, like some of these guys you see on Twitter right here who are getting these insane results arbitrage betting. So, if you
[08:05] mean, there's people who give out plays on Twitter, there's people who do live streams on it, there's people who do trainings on it, and again, I really recommend invest in your sports betting education. It pays off big time. Like,
[08:19] when I started my career as a quantitative trader at Susuana, they didn't even allow us to make a single trade with real money for like over a year. All they do is train you on the risks of trading, the options, all these
[08:33] complex trading strategies. They want to make sure you know everything before you actually get started, right? Otherwise, you're going to get crushed trading betting. If you don't know what you're doing, if you don't know the data,
[08:46] books. I love watching basketball, but guess what? 99% of sports betterers lose money long term, and they all watch basketball. So watching basketball does not make you a good basketball better. You need to understand the data and the
[09:00] strategies which anyone can learn sports betting knowledge is very accessible. I do tons of tutorials on this YouTube channel. But I'm going to get into some other strategies such as crossmarket EV betting. I mean there's so many
[09:14] strategies we could go through in this video. But one thing I wanted to mention is what's important like what are some general tips when you're NBA betting. So the first thing is you want to use multiple sports books. So here you can
[09:27] see my results by sports book, my profit and loss by book. And my results wouldn't be possible if I only used one sports book. So it seems degenerate, but I've used over a hundred sports books since I started very
[09:41] seriously gambling. All these books set their own prices, their own odds and lines. We never know which book is going to have the best value on a given day. And again, more books because arbitrage is always two sports books or middle
[09:53] betting. The more books you have, the better. More books means more opportunities for books to screw up and there to be arbitrage bets or plus EV bets. More books is a good thing. The second thing is take advantage of these
[10:05] promos. It's the lowhanging fruit, the easiest money you'll ever make. Sports betting, all these books are competing, right, for new customers. So, they give away free money essentially as a marketing cost to try to get new people
[10:17] in the door. take advantage of the promos. Number three is use these betting exchanges if you have access to them. What's really nice about betting exchanges, if you do have a big bit of a bigger bankroll, is they have no max
[10:30] limits. You can bet however much you want, which is why you'll see people on Twitter like this arbitrage bet we went through where people are making $100 risk-free or over that on a single arbitrage bet and you get that money
[10:43] with the profit back later that night. So, it's absolutely insane, but it's completely true. And these betting exchanges have really revolutionized sports betting. Profitex and Novig are the main two betting exchanges in the
[10:56] US. Definitely recommend checking them out. So, the main strategy I use for NBA betting is called Cross Market Plus EV. And in my opinion, this is the most profitable betting strategy you can use. So, I have a fulllength YouTube tutorial
[11:13] on cross plus EV. I definitely recommend giving it a full watch so you understand the strategy. But the reason some people don't like this strategy is you are going to have variance. Right? When you are arbitrage betting like some of these
[11:27] customers right here, you're literally just winning every single day. Your bankroll is growing. Whereas when you are crossarket plus EV betting, you are going to have winning days, winning weeks, losing days, losing weeks. But
[11:42] all of your bets have an edge. So over a large sample size of bets, you're going to be guaranteed to make money. So basically, you know, some people like variance, some people like the thrill of gambling, others just want the free
[11:55] money with arbitrage or middle betting, more hedge strategies. But what exactly is cross market plus EV? So basically whenever an arbitrage opportunity exists. So here's a play I got off the odds jam cross market plus EV tool under
[12:11] 231 half for an NBA preseason game. I bet this at plus 110 odds. So basically whenever two sports books have such different odds that you can bet both different odds that you can bet both outcomes to guarantee a profit. One of
[12:25] the two plays has to be plus EV or a mathematically profitable bet. If I can bet the under on rebet, the over on Novig, which is a betting exchange that I kind of talked about, and make a risk-free
[12:37] profit of $2439, you can see the math on the screen here, as well as just the arbitrage calculator that shows you your profit. So, if I bet $1,000 on rebet on the under at plus 110, this calculator just tells me how
[12:51] much to hedge with on the over at minus 105 to guarantee a profit. But basically, one of those two plays has to be profitable. So in this case, Rebet is a very soft, easily beatable sports book. Whereas Novig and Profitex, the
[13:07] two peer-to-peer exchanges, they're actually really short books. They're really smart books. So if there's arbitrage between a soft book, an easily beatable sports book like Rebet or Hard Rock, FanDuel, DraftKings, and a really
[13:22] sharp book like Novig, Profitex, Circa, Bookmaker, Pinnacle. Those are the main sharp books. I have some videos on YouTube that go through what are the sharpest sports books. But basically, it's just Novig, Profitex, Pinnacle,
[13:36] Circa, Bookmaker. If there's arbitrage between a soft book, which is all the other books, and a smart book, the value is almost certainly going to be on the easily beatable sports book, that is going to be the plus EV bet. So, in this
[13:49] case, I didn't bet the both sides just to make a risk-free $24. I solely played to make a risk-free $24. I solely played the under 231 half on rebet at plus 110. That was the plus EV bet. So, why are these betting exchanges smart or sharp?
[14:05] Some people ask me that question. Novig and Profitex. It's because the people on these peer-to-peer exchanges who are setting lines, they're not, you know, your neighbor. You're not literally just betting against, oh, other people.
[14:19] Usually, the people offering liquidity, setting the lines that you can bet against on these no limit exchanges are market makers. They're trading firms and hedge funds. So, they're really, really smart. Long story short, like you're
[14:32] trading against very sophisticated counterparties. So, Novig and Profitex, especially when liquidity is high, when there's a lot of money you can bet against, those actually are very sharp books. Um, it's different if there's
[14:45] only $12 listed, but when there's thousands or hundreds of dollars listed, these books actually become very sharp and good indicators, good data points with regards to fair value. So, Cross Market Plus EV, that may have been very
[14:58] confusing to you. Again, I've done a YouTube tutorial on it. I highly recommend checking it out. invest in your sports betting education. It pays off big time. And the final tip I have, which doesn't just apply to NBA betting
[15:11] for baseball, you know, football, whatever, is ruthlessly track your bets and your ROI, right? Like you should start out betting small, a dollar, 10 cents a play, who cares? And just get a feel for it and track your bets
[15:26] ruthlessly. And then if you're profitable after a few hundred bets, ramp it up. And then if you continue to be profitable, continue to ramp it up. The main mistake I see so many sports betterers make, again, the vast majority
[15:39] of sports betterers, like 99%, 97%, studies vary, but the vast majority of sports betterers lose money. So, start out small. Make sure you're profitable with the strategies you're using, if you listen to this video or you don't. And
[15:53] then from there, you can actually ramp up your bet size or your unit size and start to bet more money and actually realize more profits, make more money on a dollar basis as opposed to an ROI basis. But you obviously don't want to
[16:07] get crushed sports betting out of the get-go, lose all your money, and then you're bankroll zero. And then if you learn the sharp strategies, doesn't matter because you ran out of money. So, I hope you enjoyed this video. Like the
[16:19] video, subscribe to the channel, and again, thank you guys so much for your again, thank you guys so much for your time.