[0:00] So, a few days ago, the United States
[0:01] and Iran signed a deal to end one of the
[0:04] most destructive wars in decades. And
[0:06] within just days, it fell apart, just
[0:10] like we said it would. Israel kept on
[0:12] bombing Lebanon, the agreement broke,
[0:14] and Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz
[0:16] again. And that means no more oil for
[0:18] the world, and the crisis is sort of
[0:20] back on. And the question is,
[0:22] why did that happen? Everyone says it's
[0:25] because of Israel and Netanyahu, and
[0:28] that's partially true, but there's a
[0:30] more encompassing theory that explains
[0:32] it better.
[0:33] And the theory says that what's actually
[0:35] happening right now is that there is an
[0:37] internal conflict in the profit-making
[0:40] machine that's between the
[0:42] military-industrial complex and the
[0:44] technological-industrial complex. You
[0:47] see, the military's forever war model is
[0:50] being shut down to make room for the
[0:53] technological-industrial complex's AI
[0:55] build-out. Because in order to build AI
[0:58] and data centers and the control grid,
[1:00] you need stability instead of war. And
[1:03] if that is right, it would explain why
[1:06] people who would have never criticized
[1:09] Israel are now criticizing Israel.
[1:11] >> I'm not happy with the way
[1:14] Israel has handled themselves with
[1:16] Lebanon and with Hezbollah. Without the
[1:19] United States, there would be no Israel.
[1:21] Israel would have been blown up a long
[1:23] time ago had I not gotten involved.
[1:25] Israel's fighting Hezbollah too long,
[1:27] and too many people have been killed.
[1:29] And you don't have to knock down an
[1:31] apartment house every time you're
[1:32] looking for somebody.
[1:34] >> Now, whether the forever war model holds
[1:36] or not really depends on oil, because
[1:39] oil runs straight through the Federal
[1:41] Reserve, and it's all connected. So,
[1:43] today I want to explain how, no matter
[1:45] what happens, the most likely outcome
[1:48] that we're going to see in the next few
[1:49] years is that our money is going to be
[1:52] worth a lot less. And here's how that's
[1:54] going to be done.
[1:56] A few days ago I made a video for the
[1:57] premium members predicting exactly what
[1:59] the Fed would do. It called the whole
[2:01] mess before it happened and we
[2:03] accurately predicted what would happen
[2:05] to the federal fund rate, aka the
[2:07] interest rate. Because the truth is we
[2:08] already knew what Kevin Warsh was going
[2:10] to do using that CME FedWatch tool. The
[2:13] market predicted over a 97% chance that
[2:16] interest rates stay the same.
[2:18] And that's exactly what happened.
[2:19] But I also said that what really
[2:21] mattered is what he was going to
[2:23] telegraph to the world about the future
[2:25] of the Federal Reserve. For example, I
[2:27] said if he didn't give the market what
[2:30] economists call a dovish signal,
[2:32] if he didn't hint that some kind of a
[2:34] relief was coming, stocks were going to
[2:36] go down.
[2:37] And that's exactly what happened. The
[2:39] S&P 500 closed down 1.2% which is a lot
[2:42] for the stock market. So in this video I
[2:45] want to explain what actually happened
[2:47] and what their master plan actually is
[2:50] and how they're planning to rewrite the
[2:51] rules for the Federal Reserve itself.
[2:54] One of the ways they're going to do that
[2:55] for example is that Kevin Warsh said
[2:58] he's dropping what's called the forward
[3:00] guidance.
[3:01] >> That statement just gives you the facts
[3:03] as best we can judge it.
[3:05] Absent also is so-called forward
[3:07] guidance, which we agreed was not well
[3:10] suited to the current policy conjecture.
[3:13] >> Which is a fancy way of saying
[3:15] he told the market, "I'm not going to
[3:17] tell you guys what we're going to do
[3:18] next anymore."
[3:20] He's refusing to submit his own
[3:22] forecast.
[3:23] >> I, however, refrained from offering any
[3:25] projections of my own
[3:27] consistent with my long-held views on
[3:29] the SEP, at least as currently
[3:31] structured.
[3:32] >> And he also launched something called
[3:34] the five task forces which is meant to
[3:36] review everything from how the Fed talks
[3:40] to how it measures the economy and
[3:42] inflation.
[3:43] >> The third task force, the one on data,
[3:46] will evaluate new information sources
[3:49] and consider methodological changes to
[3:51] improve data gathering
[3:53] with the aim of giving policy makers
[3:55] more accurate
[3:57] relevant contemporaneous
[4:00] and perhaps most important actionable
[4:02] information on the state of our economy.
[4:05] >> So, information and data are going to be
[4:08] a privilege for this administration.
[4:10] And I think there's a plan to craft a
[4:12] story that inflation is under control,
[4:15] right? That is the official story it
[4:17] looks like they're creating. But the
[4:19] unofficial story
[4:20] is that they might be building a machine
[4:23] to do the exact opposite. And the key to
[4:26] this machine is controlling the data
[4:29] itself.
[4:30] And why they're building this machine
[4:32] is so they can do what they've always
[4:35] ultimately wanted to do, which is
[4:37] quantitative easing, aka printing money.
[4:41] This machine will allow them to do that
[4:44] by showing us that the data supports
[4:46] their plan.
[4:47] There's a lot of really interesting
[4:48] stuff to get through, so with that said,
[4:50] let's get into it.
[4:51] >> Hi, my name is Andre Jik. Hope you're
[4:52] doing well. Come for the finance and
[4:54] stay for the stock market. Now, if
[4:55] you're watching this and you're not a
[4:57] finance nerd
[4:58] there's a question I think we all have.
[5:00] Cuz Trump picked Kevin Warsh as his Fed
[5:02] chair. And Trump's been screaming for
[5:04] lower interest rates for years. He
[5:06] literally joked that he would sue his
[5:08] own Federal Chairman if he didn't lower
[5:10] the rates. And then on Wednesday, not
[5:13] only did Kevin Warsh not lower interest
[5:15] rates
[5:16] the Fed's projections show nine of its
[5:19] members want to increase interest rates
[5:21] before the end of the year. So, the
[5:24] obvious question is, how long is it
[5:25] going to take Trump before he goes on
[5:27] Twitter and is like, this guy's an
[5:28] idiot? And the answer to that question
[5:30] is basically this video. Hopefully
[5:32] everything will make sense by the end of
[5:34] it.
[5:34] Here's the thing. About a week ago right
[5:37] after a report came out showing
[5:39] inflation went up 4.2% right to the
[5:41] highest level in 3 years.
[5:43] Trump said I love inflation.
[5:46] That's a weird thing for him to say
[5:47] because he was partly elected on a
[5:49] promise to bring prices down and he's
[5:51] saying he loves inflation. Why?
[5:54] It's because as long as you can blame
[5:55] inflation on the Iran war and the price
[5:58] of oil,
[5:59] then it's nobody's fault.
[6:01] It's the war's fault. So, okay, why then
[6:04] did he hold the interest rate steady?
[6:07] It's because this is how he earns the
[6:10] right to lower interest rates later.
[6:13] Because imagine if he had done the
[6:14] opposite.
[6:16] If Kevin Warsh just walked in on day one
[6:18] and was like, "I'm lowering interest
[6:19] rates guys."
[6:21] Everyone would say,
[6:22] "That's just cuz Trump told you to." The
[6:24] bond market would have revolted and then
[6:27] interest rates would have went way up
[6:29] and he'd be branded a puppet. Like he'd
[6:31] have no credibility. He'd have no
[6:33] independence. So, right now, he is doing
[6:36] the opposite because he gets to sound
[6:39] and look tough on inflation in the face
[6:41] of Trump. It creates the narrative that
[6:43] he is in fact independent. He takes the
[6:45] credibility and then later this year, if
[6:49] this Iran deal supposedly goes through
[6:51] and oil actually comes back down,
[6:54] then inflation comes down by itself and
[6:56] he gets to lower interest rates and say,
[6:59] "The data told me to, so I did."
[7:02] Right, Kevin Warsh gets to look hawkish
[7:03] today so that later he can be dovish and
[7:06] lower the rates without being punched by
[7:09] the bond market. Now, if all of that
[7:11] sounded super confusing,
[7:14] let me explain the biggest changes going
[7:16] forward.
[7:18] What they're doing right now is they're
[7:20] creating a story for the master
[7:22] strategy.
[7:23] The story they need is that inflation
[7:26] will be low driven by the end of the
[7:28] Iran war and the AI boom, which is
[7:31] disinflationary, which allows us to then
[7:34] lower rates and print money.
[7:36] But in order to justify those actions,
[7:39] they need to create a machine that sells
[7:42] that story.
[7:44] Let me explain how I think this machine
[7:46] is going to work. Now, before I get into
[7:48] that, this video is sponsored by Zocdoc.
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[7:57] provider. The average wait time in the
[7:59] US is 31 days, and in some cities, it's
[8:02] over 40. You call, you get put on hold,
[8:04] and you find out they don't even take
[8:06] your insurance, and then you have to
[8:07] start all over. That's exactly what
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[8:40] it out in my link in the description
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[8:43] it.
[8:46] So, here's the machine that they're
[8:47] creating. Remember those five task
[8:49] forces? Well, one of them will be
[8:52] dedicated to collecting data. Like, how
[8:55] the Fed collects it, where it comes
[8:56] from, like how measures the economy, all
[8:58] the inflation, right? Now, today, the
[9:01] data the government uses to run this
[9:03] whole country is genuinely broken.
[9:05] Things like our jobs report, all the
[9:07] inflation reports, they all come from
[9:09] surveys. So, the government makes its
[9:11] best guess, it publishes a number, and
[9:15] then the whole market starts to react to
[9:16] it, and then months later, the
[9:18] government has to revise it. And they do
[9:20] this all the time. There's huge
[9:22] revisions. We're talking about the
[9:24] government revising these numbers by the
[9:26] hundreds of thousands of jobs after the
[9:29] fact, and more than once.
[9:31] Kevin Warsh calls the old data an echo
[9:33] of history, and he's right. So, he wants
[9:36] real-time, accurate data powered by AI.
[9:40] >> [snorts]
[9:41] >> Now, that's not why, though, they're
[9:44] updating this machine.
[9:46] They're updating it because there's a
[9:47] catch. And the catch is that right now
[9:49] there's two completely different stories
[9:53] about inflation.
[9:54] Story number one is the official data,
[9:58] the way they've always measured it,
[9:59] using the CPI and the PCE.
[10:01] That data says inflation's high. It's at
[10:04] 4.2%.
[10:06] And the Fed is predicting that by the
[10:08] end of the year it'll be 3.6%. That is
[10:10] still high.
[10:11] That story says, "Well, you can't lower
[10:15] interest rates because inflation's too
[10:16] high."
[10:18] Okay, story number two is
[10:20] oil has gone down almost 40% from its
[10:23] highs.
[10:24] And supposedly the Iran deal is getting
[10:27] signed this Friday.
[10:29] That story says inflation is going to
[10:33] crater, right? It's about to fall off a
[10:35] cliff. So, you can absolutely lower
[10:37] interest rates in that case.
[10:39] But the question is
[10:41] who gets to decide which story we're
[10:43] going to use?
[10:45] Cuz whoever picks the data will pick the
[10:48] policy.
[10:49] If Kevin Warsh picks this official data
[10:53] part one, right? He's trapped. So, he
[10:56] has to stay hawkish, meaning rates have
[10:59] to stay higher for longer cuz the number
[11:01] says inflation's hot.
[11:03] But the second he gets to say
[11:05] "Nah, we don't look at that lagging old
[11:07] data anymore, right? We look at this new
[11:10] real-time data driven by Palantir."
[11:13] Whatever it might be.
[11:15] Suddenly
[11:16] inflation is going down. And then he's
[11:19] free to lower interest rates. He's free
[11:22] to start reducing the Fed's balance
[11:24] sheet. He gets to say that it's all data
[11:26] driven. And that's the whole game.
[11:28] But it's also his data. He gets to
[11:30] choose which true number the Fed will
[11:33] use.
[11:34] And he's obviously going to choose the
[11:35] one that conveniently gives him
[11:37] permission to do what he's always wanted
[11:39] to do anyway.
[11:41] Which is QE.
[11:42] How we know this is because the Fed is
[11:45] considering changing how they measure
[11:47] inflation using that trimmed mean PCE.
[11:51] Basically, let's get rid of all the
[11:52] outliers like oil for example, which is
[11:55] kind of the whole reason why inflation
[11:57] is as high as it is.
[11:58] If we remove the extreme variables, we
[12:00] can make inflation look less bad.
[12:02] The point is that it's up to them.
[12:05] They can pick which story they want to
[12:07] go with.
[12:08] Now going beyond that though,
[12:10] Kevin Warsh is also removing
[12:13] all the ways we might be able to catch
[12:15] him doing this.
[12:16] AKA no more dot plot.
[12:18] The dot plot by the way is a survey for
[12:20] what other central bankers on the Fed
[12:22] want to do with interest rates.
[12:24] So, no more forward guidance.
[12:27] There's going to be a brand new
[12:28] framework that is going to be designed
[12:30] in-house.
[12:31] The old data though, as broken as it
[12:33] was, right? It was at least everybody's
[12:34] data. It was public and you could check
[12:36] it. So, if you're sitting at home and
[12:38] you're like, "Groceries still feel
[12:40] pretty insane to me."
[12:42] But the Fed is telling you that
[12:43] inflation's under control and they're
[12:44] cutting rates to celebrate,
[12:46] you're not going to be able to point to
[12:47] a number and say,
[12:49] "Hey,
[12:50] what's going on here, right? That's
[12:51] wrong." Because the number will be
[12:53] whatever they decided for it to be.
[12:55] So, that is one of the gears of this
[12:57] machine. It's to control the data. So,
[12:59] you can justify the easing and then you
[13:01] could say it's all good.
[13:03] Now, justifying all of this is just half
[13:06] of the job.
[13:07] They still have to do the actual easing,
[13:10] the actual money printing without anyone
[13:12] seeing it as money printing so that
[13:15] people don't get mad that their dollar
[13:17] buys them less.
[13:19] And that's exactly where the banks come
[13:20] in. Now, let me show you exactly how
[13:22] that's going to work. Remember there was
[13:23] that rule that came out of the 2008
[13:25] financial crisis called the supplemental
[13:27] leverage ratio or SLR for short.
[13:31] All it really does is limit how much a
[13:32] bank can hold relative to its own money,
[13:35] including Treasury bonds.
[13:36] And when COVID hit in 2020 and the banks
[13:38] needed help the Fed temporarily exempted
[13:42] Treasuries from that rule for about a
[13:43] year.
[13:44] What happened then was
[13:46] banks piled their money into Treasuries,
[13:49] hundreds of billions of dollars worth.
[13:51] The bond market started to run really
[13:53] smooth.
[13:54] But when the exemption expired in March
[13:56] of 2021
[13:58] the bond market did not like it and it
[13:59] got really choppy.
[14:01] Now, why this is so important to our
[14:02] story is now we can put these two pieces
[14:05] together and hopefully this machine
[14:07] makes a little bit more sense.
[14:09] On one hand Kevin Warsh talks about
[14:11] shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. He
[14:14] wants the Fed to have fewer bonds. He
[14:16] wants the line on this chart to go down.
[14:19] He wants to show this data because that
[14:21] would mean or that would imply less
[14:23] inflation. Awesome.
[14:26] On the other hand, he also wants to
[14:28] deregulate the banks.
[14:30] He will hand them back their Treasury
[14:31] exemption from the SLR.
[14:34] And the second he does that the banks
[14:36] will step in and scoop up all the bonds
[14:39] the Fed was selling. Except the banks
[14:42] will do it with huge amounts of leverage
[14:45] cuz borrowing to buy is what banks do.
[14:49] But then if that's the case, ask
[14:50] yourself what is the difference?
[14:52] Right, the Fed sells the bonds
[14:54] and then the banks buy them.
[14:57] The net effect of the bond market is the
[14:59] same thing as if the Fed just bought the
[15:01] bonds itself. Right, that is
[15:03] quantitative easing. That is money
[15:05] printing. It's just laundered through
[15:09] the commercial banking system instead of
[15:12] showing up on the Fed's balance sheet
[15:14] where a guy on some social media can be
[15:16] like, "Look, they're printing money cuz
[15:18] the line's going up." Now, that will not
[15:20] be as easy to do.
[15:22] That is control of data. That's the
[15:24] beauty of it. When someone asks, "Well,
[15:27] aren't you guys printing money? Isn't
[15:28] that why my dollar's buying me less
[15:30] now?"
[15:31] They will get to say,
[15:33] "No. We're actually shrinking our
[15:35] balance sheet." They'll say, "Look,
[15:36] we're tightening. We are letting go of
[15:38] our bonds. There's no inflation."
[15:41] But the money still gets printed anyway.
[15:43] Your dollar will still buy you less. The
[15:45] reasoning for it will be,
[15:47] "Hey, we're freeing the banks to lend to
[15:49] Main Street instead of Wall Street.
[15:51] We're helping small businesses." And
[15:53] there's enough truth in it to make it
[15:55] impossible to argue against. So, follow
[15:57] the incentive. That is the machine. They
[15:59] will control the data, which they can
[16:01] then deregulate the banks with, so then
[16:03] they can do the quantitative easing
[16:05] without it looking like money printing.
[16:07] And it all works beautifully on paper
[16:09] because the data will support all of it.
[16:12] Now unfortunately
[16:14] for their master plan to work, there's a
[16:16] couple very big problems they first have
[16:19] to solve. The first problem is that the
[16:21] bond market doesn't believe them.
[16:23] The bond market just sent Kevin Warsh a
[16:25] very loud, clear message.
[16:28] In this chart, we can see what just
[16:29] happened to interest rates on Wednesday.
[16:31] Bond rates have gone up, but not evenly.
[16:35] Look at what happened to the short end
[16:37] versus the long end.
[16:39] The two-year Treasury bond, which
[16:41] basically the market's bet on what the
[16:43] Fed's going to do over the next couple
[16:44] of years,
[16:46] that went up the most, up to about 4.2%.
[16:49] But the 30-year Treasury rate,
[16:52] that barely moved at all.
[16:54] So, the front of the curve went up, and
[16:56] the back of it's just kind of sitting
[16:58] here.
[16:59] Now, why that's so important is because,
[17:01] in nerd speak, from my last video,
[17:03] that's called a flattening of the yield
[17:06] curve.
[17:07] Investors are basically saying,
[17:09] "We think the Fed is going to keep rates
[17:11] higher for longer cuz we think inflation
[17:13] is worse than what you're telling us it
[17:14] is.
[17:15] We also did not hear you say in your
[17:17] meeting that you're going to lower
[17:19] interest rates later this year, and nine
[17:21] of your other members want to increase
[17:23] interest rates.
[17:25] Pay us more money. And that's why the
[17:27] two-year Treasury bond is going up.
[17:30] Unfortunately, for the banks, part of
[17:32] the plan to work right now,
[17:34] Kevin Warsh needs to get the yield curve
[17:36] steeper. He needs a bigger gap between
[17:39] short- and long-term rates. He needs the
[17:42] short rates to be low, and long-term
[17:45] rates to be higher, because this gap,
[17:48] that's where banks make money.
[17:50] So, what the market did on Wednesday was
[17:53] it flattened the curve. It raised on the
[17:56] short end. It did the opposite of what
[17:59] their plan needs them to do.
[18:02] Kevin Warsh also said he's going to drop
[18:04] the forward guidance.
[18:06] He's like, I'm not going to tell you
[18:07] guys what we're doing anymore.
[18:08] Now, from a bond investor's point of
[18:10] view,
[18:11] when the Fed used to tell you what it
[18:13] was planning,
[18:14] you could buy your bonds with
[18:15] confidence, right? You can kind of plan
[18:16] ahead.
[18:17] But now, Kevin Warsh says, "I'm not
[18:19] going to tell you guys anything."
[18:20] So, investors are like, "Okay, pay me
[18:22] more for this uncertainty."
[18:24] That extra payment in the investment
[18:26] world has a name. It's called a risk
[18:28] premium.
[18:29] Now, the second problem the US has is
[18:32] US government has to refinance something
[18:34] like $8 trillion worth of debt over the
[18:37] next year.
[18:39] That means short-term interest rates
[18:40] right now are very important. They need
[18:43] them to come down.
[18:45] But ever since around 2014,
[18:47] foreign central banks
[18:49] basically stopped buying our Treasury
[18:52] bonds.
[18:53] That makes it harder for rates to come
[18:55] down.
[18:57] And who's actually buying our bonds
[18:58] right now
[18:59] are highly leveraged hedge funds.
[19:02] In fact, a Fed paper found that funds
[19:05] based in the Cayman Islands bought up
[19:07] something like 37%
[19:10] of all the new government notes and
[19:12] bonds issued since 2022.
[19:14] So now, when stocks go down and the
[19:17] market gets scared,
[19:18] those hedge funds could be hit with
[19:20] margin calls and then they're forced to
[19:22] sell.
[19:23] And what do they sell?
[19:24] They sell their treasuries.
[19:26] That is why, now more than ever, we need
[19:29] more buyers of treasuries at a time when
[19:34] there are less and less. Right? We need
[19:37] someone to bail out the bond market
[19:40] without it looking like the Fed is doing
[19:43] it. So instead of stocks down, bonds up,
[19:46] which is what investors have always
[19:48] relied on happening,
[19:50] we're now getting stocks down and bonds
[19:53] down and their yields are up at the same
[19:55] time. That's what happened on Wednesday.
[19:57] The S&P went down over 1% and bond
[19:59] yields went up. So the old safety net
[20:02] that investors have always relied on,
[20:04] right, it's not there anymore. Okay,
[20:06] let's just forget about the bond market
[20:07] for a second.
[20:08] There is a second problem that might be
[20:11] even bigger that's sort of like the
[20:13] deciding X factor on whether any of this
[20:16] works or not. And that is the price of
[20:19] oil. A huge reason why inflation is as
[20:21] bad as it is right now is because of
[20:24] oil. If it stays high,
[20:26] then Kevin Warsh never gets his excuse
[20:29] to lower those rates. Oil decides
[20:31] everything. So what's happening to oil
[20:33] right now?
[20:34] Right now, oil is going down because the
[20:36] market thinks the Iran deal is about to
[20:39] get signed. On paper, this is perfect
[20:41] timing for Kevin Warsh. Oil crashes,
[20:44] inflation cools down, and right on cue,
[20:47] he gets his reason to lower interest
[20:48] rates in the future.
[20:50] How do we get the oil down?
[20:52] Couple different ways.
[20:53] We can manipulate short-term prices
[20:56] through the oil futures market. We can
[20:58] do it through the media and the
[21:00] Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the SPR.
[21:03] In my last video, I said that that would
[21:05] run out in under days, which is why this
[21:09] Iran deal was so important and it needed
[21:12] to get done ASAP.
[21:15] Well, listen to what Trump himself said
[21:16] about why he stopped bombing Iran.
[21:19] >> If we If we keep bombing, those ships
[21:21] won't be going and you're talking about
[21:23] 500 600 700 million dollars a day. It's
[21:28] a lot of money. A lot of money. That's
[21:30] why the world is okay. It's liquid. It's
[21:32] fine. Also, we run out of reserves in
[21:34] about 4 weeks. You know, there are
[21:36] reserves all over the world and we would
[21:38] really run out and there'll be a time
[21:39] when you wouldn't be able to get it and
[21:41] you want to see bedlam?
[21:43] >> He said if we keep bombing, the ships
[21:45] won't be able to move and then we run
[21:47] out of reserves in about 4 weeks.
[21:50] So, he just admitted the reason for this
[21:52] deal. The reason he's pulling out has
[21:55] nothing to do with winning a war.
[21:57] It's about getting oil flowing again
[22:00] before the US economy blows up.
[22:03] Trump basically told us what I've been
[22:05] saying in all these videos.
[22:07] Now, unfortunately, the deal hasn't
[22:08] actually happened yet thanks to Israel.
[22:11] And even if they eventually sign a deal,
[22:13] getting oil to actually flow back to
[22:15] normal is going to take months. There
[22:17] are something like 500 ships stuck in
[22:19] that region right now. The insurance
[22:21] companies and the shipping giants are
[22:23] still scared to send the tankers through
[22:25] it. Analysts are saying it could take
[22:27] two to three months just to get traffic
[22:30] back to normal and that's if everything
[22:32] goes perfectly, which we now know it
[22:35] won't be.
[22:36] So, now the real question for me as an
[22:37] investor is well, okay then, what can we
[22:40] expect from the stock market? Let me
[22:43] show you what history says will happen.
[22:46] Take a look at this chart. This is from
[22:47] Barclays and Bloomberg and it shows what
[22:50] this S&P 500 has done in the first 3
[22:52] months after a new Fed chair takes over.
[22:56] If you go down the list, almost every
[22:59] single time you got a new Fed chair, the
[23:01] market goes negative. On average, the
[23:03] stock market falls about 12% in the
[23:05] first 3 months of a new chairman.
[23:07] Some of them, like when Alan Greenspan
[23:10] took over, the market went down by 33%.
[23:13] Another one way back went down 32%.
[23:16] Look at who had the smaller drops. It
[23:19] was Powell, Yellen, Bernanke.
[23:23] Those were the continuity guys. But the
[23:26] giant drops in the market, like the 30%
[23:28] plus ones, that happened when a new
[23:30] chairman came in and changed the game.
[23:33] All right, the bigger the change, the
[23:35] bigger the drop.
[23:37] I could see that happening in the stock
[23:38] market. It is very possible that by
[23:41] October-November time frame, we see the
[23:43] market down.
[23:44] Although, it is also possible that we
[23:47] thread the needle. The deal gets done.
[23:50] Inflation, based on this new data, comes
[23:52] down.
[23:53] And then we go right into printing
[23:55] money.
[23:56] It kind of depends on what happens with
[23:57] this Iran deal.
[23:59] Anything is possible and nothing is
[24:00] certain, but I'm still invested.
[24:02] According to Luke Gromen from FTT,
[24:05] here's how you know everything from this
[24:08] video will come true about their master
[24:11] plan. There's five signs to look for to
[24:13] know their plan is working. And that is
[24:15] a weaker dollar, higher stocks, lower
[24:19] 10-year yields, higher gold prices, and
[24:22] higher Bitcoin prices.
[24:24] On Wednesday, every single one of those
[24:27] signs flashed the opposite. Dollar up,
[24:30] stocks down, 10-year Treasury yields up,
[24:34] gold down, and Bitcoin down. Which means
[24:36] their plan is failing, at least for now.
[24:39] But time will tell.
[24:41] If you're interested in seeing how I'm
[24:42] preparing and how I'm investing, those
[24:43] videos live in the premium member
[24:44] section. You'll also gain access to my
[24:46] main videos earlier. If that's valuable
[24:48] to you, the link is down below. It also
[24:50] allows me to make more videos like this
[24:51] one, take on fewer sponsors. Thank you
[24:53] for watching. I hope you have a
[24:54] wonderful rest of your day. Smash the
[24:56] like button. I'd love to see you next
[24:58] time. Thank you for being premium
[24:59] member, and take care. Shh.