---
title: 'Your Money Is About To Be Worth A Lot Less'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=nHy5u06we_s'
video_id: 'nHy5u06we_s'
date: 2026-06-28
duration_sec: 0
---

# Your Money Is About To Be Worth A Lot Less

> Source: [Your Money Is About To Be Worth A Lot Less](https://youtube.com/watch?v=nHy5u06we_s)

## Summary

The video analyzes the recent collapse of a US-Iran deal, linking it to an internal conflict between the military-industrial complex and the tech-industrial complex. It then explains how the Federal Reserve under new chair Kevin Warsh is planning to control economic data and use the banking system to execute hidden quantitative easing, devaluing the dollar.

### Key Points

- **Iran deal collapse** [0:00] — US-Iran deal fell apart, Israel bombed Lebanon, Iran shut Strait of Hormuz, oil crisis resumes.
- **Internal US conflict** [0:33] — Theory: conflict between military-industrial complex (forever war) and tech-industrial complex (needs stability for AI build-out).
- **Fed rate decision predicted** [1:59] — Using CME FedWatch, market predicted 97% chance rates stay same; they did.
- **No dovish signal** [2:19] — Kevin Warsh did not hint at future rate relief, causing S&P 500 to drop 1.2%.
- **Forward guidance dropped** [2:54] — Kevin Warsh said Fed will no longer provide forward guidance, refusing to submit own projections.
- **Five task forces launched** [3:32] — Task forces to review Fed communication, data gathering, and economic measurement.
- **Two inflation stories** [9:54] — Official data (CPI/PCE) shows inflation at 4.2%; oil-driven story predicts inflation cratering.
- **Data determines policy** [11:28] — Whoever controls the data can choose the inflation narrative, allowing rate cuts or not.
- **Trimmed mean PCE** [11:58] — Fed considering removing outliers like oil from inflation measure to make inflation look less bad.
- **Removing transparency** [12:15] — No more dot plot or forward guidance, reducing ability to catch Fed's moves.
- **SLR exemption** [13:23] — During COVID, Treasuries were exempted from supplemental leverage ratio; now plan to reinstate to let banks buy bonds.
- **Laundered quantitative easing** [14:57] — Fed sells bonds, banks buy with leverage; net effect is money printing but hidden from Fed balance sheet.
- **Yield curve flattens** [16:23] — Bond market pushed 2-year Treasury up to 4.2%, long rates steady, indicating skepticism about Fed's inflation story.
- **Hedge funds dominate bond buying** [18:57] — Cayman Islands hedge funds bought 37% of new US government bonds since 2022, creating risk of margin calls.
- **Trump admits oil dependence** [21:15] — Trump said bombing would deplete oil reserves in 4 weeks, so Iran deal needed to keep oil flowing.

### Conclusion

The Fed's plan to control data and launder quantitative easing through banks may face significant headwinds from both the bond market and oil prices. The outcome depends on whether the Iran deal stabilizes oil and if the Fed can regain market credibility.

## Transcript

So, a few days ago, the United States
and Iran signed a deal to end one of the
most destructive wars in decades. And
within just days, it fell apart, just
like we said it would. Israel kept on
bombing Lebanon, the agreement broke,
and Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz
again. And that means no more oil for
the world, and the crisis is sort of
back on. And the question is,
why did that happen? Everyone says it's
because of Israel and Netanyahu, and
that's partially true, but there's a
more encompassing theory that explains
it better.
And the theory says that what's actually
happening right now is that there is an
internal conflict in the profit-making
machine that's between the
military-industrial complex and the
technological-industrial complex. You
see, the military's forever war model is
being shut down to make room for the
technological-industrial complex's AI
build-out. Because in order to build AI
and data centers and the control grid,
you need stability instead of war. And
if that is right, it would explain why
people who would have never criticized
Israel are now criticizing Israel.
>> I'm not happy with the way
Israel has handled themselves with
Lebanon and with Hezbollah. Without the
United States, there would be no Israel.
Israel would have been blown up a long
time ago had I not gotten involved.
Israel's fighting Hezbollah too long,
and too many people have been killed.
And you don't have to knock down an
apartment house every time you're
looking for somebody.
>> Now, whether the forever war model holds
or not really depends on oil, because
oil runs straight through the Federal
Reserve, and it's all connected. So,
today I want to explain how, no matter
what happens, the most likely outcome
that we're going to see in the next few
years is that our money is going to be
worth a lot less. And here's how that's
going to be done.
A few days ago I made a video for the
premium members predicting exactly what
the Fed would do. It called the whole
mess before it happened and we
accurately predicted what would happen
to the federal fund rate, aka the
interest rate. Because the truth is we
already knew what Kevin Warsh was going
to do using that CME FedWatch tool. The
market predicted over a 97% chance that
interest rates stay the same.
And that's exactly what happened.
But I also said that what really
mattered is what he was going to
telegraph to the world about the future
of the Federal Reserve. For example, I
said if he didn't give the market what
economists call a dovish signal,
if he didn't hint that some kind of a
relief was coming, stocks were going to
go down.
And that's exactly what happened. The
S&P 500 closed down 1.2% which is a lot
for the stock market. So in this video I
want to explain what actually happened
and what their master plan actually is
and how they're planning to rewrite the
rules for the Federal Reserve itself.
One of the ways they're going to do that
for example is that Kevin Warsh said
he's dropping what's called the forward
guidance.
>> That statement just gives you the facts
as best we can judge it.
Absent also is so-called forward
guidance, which we agreed was not well
suited to the current policy conjecture.
>> Which is a fancy way of saying
he told the market, "I'm not going to
tell you guys what we're going to do
next anymore."
He's refusing to submit his own
forecast.
>> I, however, refrained from offering any
projections of my own
consistent with my long-held views on
the SEP, at least as currently
structured.
>> And he also launched something called
the five task forces which is meant to
review everything from how the Fed talks
to how it measures the economy and
inflation.
>> The third task force, the one on data,
will evaluate new information sources
and consider methodological changes to
improve data gathering
with the aim of giving policy makers
more accurate
relevant contemporaneous
and perhaps most important actionable
information on the state of our economy.
>> So, information and data are going to be
a privilege for this administration.
And I think there's a plan to craft a
story that inflation is under control,
right? That is the official story it
looks like they're creating. But the
unofficial story
is that they might be building a machine
to do the exact opposite. And the key to
this machine is controlling the data
itself.
And why they're building this machine
is so they can do what they've always
ultimately wanted to do, which is
quantitative easing, aka printing money.
This machine will allow them to do that
by showing us that the data supports
their plan.
There's a lot of really interesting
stuff to get through, so with that said,
let's get into it.
>> Hi, my name is Andre Jik. Hope you're
doing well. Come for the finance and
stay for the stock market. Now, if
you're watching this and you're not a
finance nerd
there's a question I think we all have.
Cuz Trump picked Kevin Warsh as his Fed
chair. And Trump's been screaming for
lower interest rates for years. He
literally joked that he would sue his
own Federal Chairman if he didn't lower
the rates. And then on Wednesday, not
only did Kevin Warsh not lower interest
rates
the Fed's projections show nine of its
members want to increase interest rates
before the end of the year. So, the
obvious question is, how long is it
going to take Trump before he goes on
Twitter and is like, this guy's an
idiot? And the answer to that question
is basically this video. Hopefully
everything will make sense by the end of
it.
Here's the thing. About a week ago right
after a report came out showing
inflation went up 4.2% right to the
highest level in 3 years.
Trump said I love inflation.
That's a weird thing for him to say
because he was partly elected on a
promise to bring prices down and he's
saying he loves inflation. Why?
It's because as long as you can blame
inflation on the Iran war and the price
of oil,
then it's nobody's fault.
It's the war's fault. So, okay, why then
did he hold the interest rate steady?
It's because this is how he earns the
right to lower interest rates later.
Because imagine if he had done the
opposite.
If Kevin Warsh just walked in on day one
and was like, "I'm lowering interest
rates guys."
Everyone would say,
"That's just cuz Trump told you to." The
bond market would have revolted and then
interest rates would have went way up
and he'd be branded a puppet. Like he'd
have no credibility. He'd have no
independence. So, right now, he is doing
the opposite because he gets to sound
and look tough on inflation in the face
of Trump. It creates the narrative that
he is in fact independent. He takes the
credibility and then later this year, if
this Iran deal supposedly goes through
and oil actually comes back down,
then inflation comes down by itself and
he gets to lower interest rates and say,
"The data told me to, so I did."
Right, Kevin Warsh gets to look hawkish
today so that later he can be dovish and
lower the rates without being punched by
the bond market. Now, if all of that
sounded super confusing,
let me explain the biggest changes going
forward.
What they're doing right now is they're
creating a story for the master
strategy.
The story they need is that inflation
will be low driven by the end of the
Iran war and the AI boom, which is
disinflationary, which allows us to then
lower rates and print money.
But in order to justify those actions,
they need to create a machine that sells
that story.
Let me explain how I think this machine
is going to work. Now, before I get into
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So, here's the machine that they're
creating. Remember those five task
forces? Well, one of them will be
dedicated to collecting data. Like, how
the Fed collects it, where it comes
from, like how measures the economy, all
the inflation, right? Now, today, the
data the government uses to run this
whole country is genuinely broken.
Things like our jobs report, all the
inflation reports, they all come from
surveys. So, the government makes its
best guess, it publishes a number, and
then the whole market starts to react to
it, and then months later, the
government has to revise it. And they do
this all the time. There's huge
revisions. We're talking about the
government revising these numbers by the
hundreds of thousands of jobs after the
fact, and more than once.
Kevin Warsh calls the old data an echo
of history, and he's right. So, he wants
real-time, accurate data powered by AI.
>> [snorts]
>> Now, that's not why, though, they're
updating this machine.
They're updating it because there's a
catch. And the catch is that right now
there's two completely different stories
about inflation.
Story number one is the official data,
the way they've always measured it,
using the CPI and the PCE.
That data says inflation's high. It's at
4.2%.
And the Fed is predicting that by the
end of the year it'll be 3.6%. That is
still high.
That story says, "Well, you can't lower
interest rates because inflation's too
high."
Okay, story number two is
oil has gone down almost 40% from its
highs.
And supposedly the Iran deal is getting
signed this Friday.
That story says inflation is going to
crater, right? It's about to fall off a
cliff. So, you can absolutely lower
interest rates in that case.
But the question is
who gets to decide which story we're
going to use?
Cuz whoever picks the data will pick the
policy.
If Kevin Warsh picks this official data
part one, right? He's trapped. So, he
has to stay hawkish, meaning rates have
to stay higher for longer cuz the number
says inflation's hot.
But the second he gets to say
"Nah, we don't look at that lagging old
data anymore, right? We look at this new
real-time data driven by Palantir."
Whatever it might be.
Suddenly
inflation is going down. And then he's
free to lower interest rates. He's free
to start reducing the Fed's balance
sheet. He gets to say that it's all data
driven. And that's the whole game.
But it's also his data. He gets to
choose which true number the Fed will
use.
And he's obviously going to choose the
one that conveniently gives him
permission to do what he's always wanted
to do anyway.
Which is QE.
How we know this is because the Fed is
considering changing how they measure
inflation using that trimmed mean PCE.
Basically, let's get rid of all the
outliers like oil for example, which is
kind of the whole reason why inflation
is as high as it is.
If we remove the extreme variables, we
can make inflation look less bad.
The point is that it's up to them.
They can pick which story they want to
go with.
Now going beyond that though,
Kevin Warsh is also removing
all the ways we might be able to catch
him doing this.
AKA no more dot plot.
The dot plot by the way is a survey for
what other central bankers on the Fed
want to do with interest rates.
So, no more forward guidance.
There's going to be a brand new
framework that is going to be designed
in-house.
The old data though, as broken as it
was, right? It was at least everybody's
data. It was public and you could check
it. So, if you're sitting at home and
you're like, "Groceries still feel
pretty insane to me."
But the Fed is telling you that
inflation's under control and they're
cutting rates to celebrate,
you're not going to be able to point to
a number and say,
"Hey,
what's going on here, right? That's
wrong." Because the number will be
whatever they decided for it to be.
So, that is one of the gears of this
machine. It's to control the data. So,
you can justify the easing and then you
could say it's all good.
Now, justifying all of this is just half
of the job.
They still have to do the actual easing,
the actual money printing without anyone
seeing it as money printing so that
people don't get mad that their dollar
buys them less.
And that's exactly where the banks come
in. Now, let me show you exactly how
that's going to work. Remember there was
that rule that came out of the 2008
financial crisis called the supplemental
leverage ratio or SLR for short.
All it really does is limit how much a
bank can hold relative to its own money,
including Treasury bonds.
And when COVID hit in 2020 and the banks
needed help the Fed temporarily exempted
Treasuries from that rule for about a
year.
What happened then was
banks piled their money into Treasuries,
hundreds of billions of dollars worth.
The bond market started to run really
smooth.
But when the exemption expired in March
of 2021
the bond market did not like it and it
got really choppy.
Now, why this is so important to our
story is now we can put these two pieces
together and hopefully this machine
makes a little bit more sense.
On one hand Kevin Warsh talks about
shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. He
wants the Fed to have fewer bonds. He
wants the line on this chart to go down.
He wants to show this data because that
would mean or that would imply less
inflation. Awesome.
On the other hand, he also wants to
deregulate the banks.
He will hand them back their Treasury
exemption from the SLR.
And the second he does that the banks
will step in and scoop up all the bonds
the Fed was selling. Except the banks
will do it with huge amounts of leverage
cuz borrowing to buy is what banks do.
But then if that's the case, ask
yourself what is the difference?
Right, the Fed sells the bonds
and then the banks buy them.
The net effect of the bond market is the
same thing as if the Fed just bought the
bonds itself. Right, that is
quantitative easing. That is money
printing. It's just laundered through
the commercial banking system instead of
showing up on the Fed's balance sheet
where a guy on some social media can be
like, "Look, they're printing money cuz
the line's going up." Now, that will not
be as easy to do.
That is control of data. That's the
beauty of it. When someone asks, "Well,
aren't you guys printing money? Isn't
that why my dollar's buying me less
now?"
They will get to say,
"No. We're actually shrinking our
balance sheet." They'll say, "Look,
we're tightening. We are letting go of
our bonds. There's no inflation."
But the money still gets printed anyway.
Your dollar will still buy you less. The
reasoning for it will be,
"Hey, we're freeing the banks to lend to
Main Street instead of Wall Street.
We're helping small businesses." And
there's enough truth in it to make it
impossible to argue against. So, follow
the incentive. That is the machine. They
will control the data, which they can
then deregulate the banks with, so then
they can do the quantitative easing
without it looking like money printing.
And it all works beautifully on paper
because the data will support all of it.
Now unfortunately
for their master plan to work, there's a
couple very big problems they first have
to solve. The first problem is that the
bond market doesn't believe them.
The bond market just sent Kevin Warsh a
very loud, clear message.
In this chart, we can see what just
happened to interest rates on Wednesday.
Bond rates have gone up, but not evenly.
Look at what happened to the short end
versus the long end.
The two-year Treasury bond, which
basically the market's bet on what the
Fed's going to do over the next couple
of years,
that went up the most, up to about 4.2%.
But the 30-year Treasury rate,
that barely moved at all.
So, the front of the curve went up, and
the back of it's just kind of sitting
here.
Now, why that's so important is because,
in nerd speak, from my last video,
that's called a flattening of the yield
curve.
Investors are basically saying,
"We think the Fed is going to keep rates
higher for longer cuz we think inflation
is worse than what you're telling us it
is.
We also did not hear you say in your
meeting that you're going to lower
interest rates later this year, and nine
of your other members want to increase
interest rates.
Pay us more money. And that's why the
two-year Treasury bond is going up.
Unfortunately, for the banks, part of
the plan to work right now,
Kevin Warsh needs to get the yield curve
steeper. He needs a bigger gap between
short- and long-term rates. He needs the
short rates to be low, and long-term
rates to be higher, because this gap,
that's where banks make money.
So, what the market did on Wednesday was
it flattened the curve. It raised on the
short end. It did the opposite of what
their plan needs them to do.
Kevin Warsh also said he's going to drop
the forward guidance.
He's like, I'm not going to tell you
guys what we're doing anymore.
Now, from a bond investor's point of
view,
when the Fed used to tell you what it
was planning,
you could buy your bonds with
confidence, right? You can kind of plan
ahead.
But now, Kevin Warsh says, "I'm not
going to tell you guys anything."
So, investors are like, "Okay, pay me
more for this uncertainty."
That extra payment in the investment
world has a name. It's called a risk
premium.
Now, the second problem the US has is
US government has to refinance something
like $8 trillion worth of debt over the
next year.
That means short-term interest rates
right now are very important. They need
them to come down.
But ever since around 2014,
foreign central banks
basically stopped buying our Treasury
bonds.
That makes it harder for rates to come
down.
And who's actually buying our bonds
right now
are highly leveraged hedge funds.
In fact, a Fed paper found that funds
based in the Cayman Islands bought up
something like 37%
of all the new government notes and
bonds issued since 2022.
So now, when stocks go down and the
market gets scared,
those hedge funds could be hit with
margin calls and then they're forced to
sell.
And what do they sell?
They sell their treasuries.
That is why, now more than ever, we need
more buyers of treasuries at a time when
there are less and less. Right? We need
someone to bail out the bond market
without it looking like the Fed is doing
it. So instead of stocks down, bonds up,
which is what investors have always
relied on happening,
we're now getting stocks down and bonds
down and their yields are up at the same
time. That's what happened on Wednesday.
The S&P went down over 1% and bond
yields went up. So the old safety net
that investors have always relied on,
right, it's not there anymore. Okay,
let's just forget about the bond market
for a second.
There is a second problem that might be
even bigger that's sort of like the
deciding X factor on whether any of this
works or not. And that is the price of
oil. A huge reason why inflation is as
bad as it is right now is because of
oil. If it stays high,
then Kevin Warsh never gets his excuse
to lower those rates. Oil decides
everything. So what's happening to oil
right now?
Right now, oil is going down because the
market thinks the Iran deal is about to
get signed. On paper, this is perfect
timing for Kevin Warsh. Oil crashes,
inflation cools down, and right on cue,
he gets his reason to lower interest
rates in the future.
How do we get the oil down?
Couple different ways.
We can manipulate short-term prices
through the oil futures market. We can
do it through the media and the
Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the SPR.
In my last video, I said that that would
run out in under days, which is why this
Iran deal was so important and it needed
to get done ASAP.
Well, listen to what Trump himself said
about why he stopped bombing Iran.
>> If we If we keep bombing, those ships
won't be going and you're talking about
500 600 700 million dollars a day. It's
a lot of money. A lot of money. That's
why the world is okay. It's liquid. It's
fine. Also, we run out of reserves in
about 4 weeks. You know, there are
reserves all over the world and we would
really run out and there'll be a time
when you wouldn't be able to get it and
you want to see bedlam?
>> He said if we keep bombing, the ships
won't be able to move and then we run
out of reserves in about 4 weeks.
So, he just admitted the reason for this
deal. The reason he's pulling out has
nothing to do with winning a war.
It's about getting oil flowing again
before the US economy blows up.
Trump basically told us what I've been
saying in all these videos.
Now, unfortunately, the deal hasn't
actually happened yet thanks to Israel.
And even if they eventually sign a deal,
getting oil to actually flow back to
normal is going to take months. There
are something like 500 ships stuck in
that region right now. The insurance
companies and the shipping giants are
still scared to send the tankers through
it. Analysts are saying it could take
two to three months just to get traffic
back to normal and that's if everything
goes perfectly, which we now know it
won't be.
So, now the real question for me as an
investor is well, okay then, what can we
expect from the stock market? Let me
show you what history says will happen.
Take a look at this chart. This is from
Barclays and Bloomberg and it shows what
this S&P 500 has done in the first 3
months after a new Fed chair takes over.
If you go down the list, almost every
single time you got a new Fed chair, the
market goes negative. On average, the
stock market falls about 12% in the
first 3 months of a new chairman.
Some of them, like when Alan Greenspan
took over, the market went down by 33%.
Another one way back went down 32%.
Look at who had the smaller drops. It
was Powell, Yellen, Bernanke.
Those were the continuity guys. But the
giant drops in the market, like the 30%
plus ones, that happened when a new
chairman came in and changed the game.
All right, the bigger the change, the
bigger the drop.
I could see that happening in the stock
market. It is very possible that by
October-November time frame, we see the
market down.
Although, it is also possible that we
thread the needle. The deal gets done.
Inflation, based on this new data, comes
down.
And then we go right into printing
money.
It kind of depends on what happens with
this Iran deal.
Anything is possible and nothing is
certain, but I'm still invested.
According to Luke Gromen from FTT,
here's how you know everything from this
video will come true about their master
plan. There's five signs to look for to
know their plan is working. And that is
a weaker dollar, higher stocks, lower
10-year yields, higher gold prices, and
higher Bitcoin prices.
On Wednesday, every single one of those
signs flashed the opposite. Dollar up,
stocks down, 10-year Treasury yields up,
gold down, and Bitcoin down. Which means
their plan is failing, at least for now.
But time will tell.
If you're interested in seeing how I'm
preparing and how I'm investing, those
videos live in the premium member
section. You'll also gain access to my
main videos earlier. If that's valuable
to you, the link is down below. It also
allows me to make more videos like this
one, take on fewer sponsors. Thank you
for watching. I hope you have a
wonderful rest of your day. Smash the
like button. I'd love to see you next
time. Thank you for being premium
member, and take care. Shh.