[00:00] Okay, so just moments ago, a Reuters piece dropped about a potential phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This is super breaking, so we have to go to the wire service feed here, so it looks really funky.
[00:17] But this just came through moments ago while we've been live. This is very interesting. So we've got, the U.S. and Iran explore a phased deal after months of war.
[00:30] the U.S. and Iran discussed a deal to open Hormuz and end the blockade. That is, ending the blockade is a critical component of what Iran wants, and Donald Trump wants oil prices down right before the election.
[00:43] And this is in my base case, and so we're going to get a deal. I didn't think we'd get it today because, you know, they're focused on Xi Jinping, so this looks like this is probably some, you know, sort of a leak of like, hey, good things are coming. because, you know, just moments ago we were at like 5.16 on the 10-year treasury.
[01:00] Everything is going the wrong way. Anyway, neither side wants to surrender leverage during diplomacy. Midterms may dent chances of a breakthrough. Now, I actually think they help the odds of a breakthrough.
[01:13] Iran signals flexibility on fees, not on the Strait of Hormuz. Okay, so that's good. Gold states reject Iranian control of the Strait. Those are some of the headlines there.
[01:27] Headline items. This is all just breaking news. U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of the war that would involve Tehran opening the Strait of Hormuz. Washington listing its economic blockade.
[01:41] So this is close to the talk set. The Strait has become the central bargaining chip in an effort to end the nearly seven-month war in Iran. With Iran seeking relief from the U.S. blockade that is choking its economy
[01:53] and Washington seeking free passage for ships on the route now being blocked by Tehran. The Tosk face a big obstacle as neither side wants to be the first to surrender its leverage, according to comments. This is exactly why I've been of the mindset that a deal is getting close.
[02:13] Each side is suffering. They each have to go out there and pretend like they're working the hardest. They're ready to annihilate the other side. But in the background, they're usually like, oh man, you know, it'd be really nice to actually
[02:27] be able to, like, import again into Iran or export into Iran, and Donald Trump would be actually nice, you know, to, what's it called, it'd be actually nice to get a deal before midterm so oil prices could come down This is why Vontable had a great chart this morning about Donald Trump being peak likely to do a deal This is the peak likely tackle level that we have
[02:50] seen since liberation. I'm now getting another feed alert here. U.S. heating oil briefly turns negative. U.S. and Iran discuss phased deals, re-avoidable moves and end the blockade.
[03:02] Senior Iranian official said the most plausible way to end the impasse would be a phased agreement. with Iran allowing navigation through Hulmuz in response to the U.S. lifting its blockade,
[03:15] the economic blockade, that's Bassan's D-Day, and potentially gaining access to frozen assets. One way forward would be to solve the crisis in stages. Remember Bassan? He's like, I guarantee they're going to follow the deal
[03:27] if we make a new deal. This could be a way that, you know, people are looking and saying, oh, we are, you know, getting closer.
[03:39] Maybe that's why Besset was so bullish when he went on Brett's show of Fox News and they posted that this morning saying, hey, we guarantee we're going to have a deal that Iran follows if we get a deal.
[03:52] In other words, compliance would be 100% is what they're guaranteeing. Now, it's just Besset's words, so I don't know if I could cash in on that guarantee. You know, the employee believes, right? What part of the Trump administration do you believe? The talks face an obstacle.
[04:04] As night has died, let's be the first to surrender. A senior Iranian official says the phase deal is plausible. Well, one way forward would be to solve the crisis in stages. That would be to end the blockade and reopen home. Oh, this is, by the way, in the Meet Kevin app.
[04:18] This is where we're getting the seed news. And you can actually use it for free. Just download it in the Apple or Android app store. That would involve the U.S. president. That would involve U.S. President Donald Trump accepting another temporary fix
[04:32] after an earlier understanding collapsed in July. So a central challenge facing negotiations is not to sketch out a deal, but also to ensure any concessions are durable for both sides to trust.
[04:44] Right, I mean, that reiterates the best of things. Like, oh yeah, no, this time's different, man. It's going to work this time. I mean, I hope it does. I believe, and I've been saying it for weeks, that a deal is imminent.
[04:58] And this is one of the early signs of this. And it's actually remarkable, because look at my lines, my freaking lines. Dude, look at this. We were sitting here for hours, okay, maybe like an hour. We're like, wow, look, it's going to 7.35 again.
[05:11] Bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce. We had four, almost five bounces on the 7.35 line for the cues. And then this talk about a phase deal drops Boom Now it early This is just early talking but this is a step in the right direction This is fantastic This is good And we seeing all the details
[05:34] of it here on the Meet Kevin app. Now, yes, I show the Meet Kevin app. It's free. We're doing this huge release of what we're calling the Meet Kevin Terminal in November, and I
[05:46] think it's really going to change the underwriting for the stock, for the stock. That's my thought. I'm really excited about it, okay? So, sorry, my little show there, although I don't have anything to show right now.
[05:59] You can download the app for free. It's a good call, isn't it? This is interesting here. The 10-year treasury coming down off of that 5.166 level. So we dropped about three basis points. So we're still up on the day.
[06:12] Oil was up at 106 on Brent. It is down now about a dollar. So, you know, we've come down a smidge. This is really early, this talk about a phased deal, but this is how it starts. First a little bit at a time, and then all at once.
[06:25] So we got a deal! This does limit the time to buy the diphthongs. It means the walls are closing in. Because I think we go rocket ship to all-time highs between now and the end of the year, once we officially get a deal.
[06:38] Iranians have a very long list of demands, said U.S. officials. The White House and State Department did not immediately respond to requests for comments for this article. U.S. negotiator Dennis Ross says he only saw a 30% chance of an agreement being reached before the vote,
[06:51] but that both sides may have stronger reasons to make a deal before rather than after the midterms. The blockade is what's really squeezing the Iranians. It's strangling them.
[07:03] A deal before midterms could benefit Trump as reopening home loans could ease tensions, bringing oil and gas prices down. Iran's chances of gaining a much-needed economic relief may be greater while Trump still has a greater political incentive to strike a deal.
[07:17] So both sides have reasons to make a deal. Leverage as an obstacle, leverage that brought Washington and Tehran back to negotiations could also make compromise harder. Washington controls pressure that is hurting Tehran most while Tehran exerts control over access to the choke point.
[07:32] This means midterms may be less of a deadline. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Fears of an open-ended conflict. Blah, blah, blah. Gulf states have rejected the proposal for a payment of transit fees. any arrangement would be temporary,
[07:45] not a formal abandonment of the Iranian positioning. Our fingers are on the trigger, say the Iranians. That's also part of negotiating. Like, hey, okay, all right, we'll open, like, take the blockade off of us. Please let us breathe. Let our trucks go into and out of Pakistan,
[07:59] Afghanistan, Iraq. Let us actually, I mean, remember, they just blockaded U.S. air, Iranian air travel So you got 26 different Iranian airlines a lot of them very small We probably talking about a couple hundred aircraft here a hundred menagerie maybe And you got these blocks from being able to go to China
[08:19] being able to go to parts of India, going to Turkey or whatever, or those airports and fuel service providers and companies involved face massive secondary sanctions from the United States. This is stuff that is squeezing them.
[08:32] You know, the UAE has already come out and said, fine, all flights from Iran are cancelled. Right? So this pressure just started mounting nine hours ago. This went into effect at midnight. Iran is
[08:44] not primarily focused on imposing tolls in Hormuz, but preserving its administrative control. That's a give-up. That is a give-up right there from Iran, because they said they needed the taxes, and now they're saying, well,
[08:56] that's not the primary goal. Okay, great. Each side is starting to taco, baby. I'm buying tacos today, it's not clear what Trump's endgame is or what the alternative pressure is. The Iranians, by contrast, know what they want, blah, blah, blah.
[09:08] Okay, these are just little quotes. The blockade is ready. So this is good news. And so we saw this here under the alpha wire tab. It's so funny. I'm looking at this design of our app, and we
[09:20] have such a huge rewrite coming. It's going to look so great in November when our terminal product comes out. But this is really good. And so I'm really grateful to hear this news.
[09:32] It is very optimistic. And to me, it's not a done deal yet. You know, oil's coming down a little bit, down to 105. Treasury yields are chilling out a little bit, capping some of their gains,
[09:45] so it's still up on the day. But this is an indication that the window to buy the dip is starting to come down. It's starting to close in. Okay? I didn't think it would happen today because, you know, they're yapping with the Chinese today.
[10:00] But it's possible that in those discussions, you're now getting those leaks coming out going, oh, no, you know, it's coming. The deal is shaping up. So this is really optimistic. This is a good thing. We need this deal.
[10:12] Otherwise, we face bigger issues. And this is a great opportunity to do our favorite thing. Not only pitch, go to the Apple or Android app store, download the Meet Kevin app, use that wire, it's free.
[10:24] But, of course, the pitch. We'll see you next time.