--- title: 'Big Changes in 2026: My Market Scenario' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=SCyYprGvm2A' video_id: 'SCyYprGvm2A' date: 2026-07-24 duration_sec: 1301 channel: 'IKIGAI' --- # Big Changes in 2026: My Market Scenario > Source: [Big Changes in 2026: My Market Scenario](https://youtube.com/watch?v=SCyYprGvm2A) ## Summary In this video, Sergey from the Kiga channel outlines his market expectations for 2026, covering cryptocurrency, precious metals, forex, and stock markets. He predicts an upward correction in crypto in early 2026, a crisis shock in precious metals, and a decline in USD/RUB to 65. He also anticipates the end of the military conflict and a surge in the Russian stock market. ### Key Points - **Crypto Correction Expected in H1 2026** [01:07] — Expects an upward correction in Bitcoin and total crypto market cap in the first half of 2026, followed by continued downward movement. The scenario invalidates if global maximum is updated. - **Altcoins to Outperform During Correction** [02:49] — Altcoin total capitalization may slightly update its global maximum during the correction, leading to a drop in Bitcoin dominance to around 50%. - **Focus on Litecoin and Trust Wallet Token** [04:29] — Litecoin is a main focus with targets at $300 and $425, average entry at $89, stop loss at $45. Trust Wallet Token offers a risk-reward ratio of 14:1. - **Precious Metals Signal Crisis** [08:44] — Gold and silver's strong growth is a negative sign. Gold has outperformed S&P 500 (200% vs 100% since 2022), and silver has doubled gold's return (400%). This is phase 3 of a crisis pattern. - **Crisis Shock Expected in 2026** [12:10] — Phase 4 (crisis shock) likely in 2026: a major correction where stocks, gold, and silver all fall, but gold falls less. After that, a 3-5 year correction before recovery. - **USD/RUB to Decline to 65** [15:06] — Expects USD/RUB to trade in a narrow range then break downwards to around 65 rubles per dollar in 2026. - **USD/UAH Culminating Impulse** [15:59] — USD/UAH is in a culminating impulse preceding the end of the military conflict, which would lead to a correction and fall in the pair. - **Russian Stock Market Surge Expected** [16:44] — Analogous to Venezuelan stock index surge after political change, Russian stocks (e.g., Surgutneftegaz, Rostelecom) are expected to rise sharply upon conflict resolution. - **Long-Term Investing Over Short-Term Trading** [18:36] — Advocates for medium- and long-term investing over short-term trading, citing better returns and less stress. Short-term trading is only for learning, not profit. ### Conclusion Sergey predicts significant market shifts in 2026, including a crypto correction, a precious metals-driven crisis shock, and a resolution of the military conflict boosting Russian markets. He emphasizes long-term investing as the prudent strategy. ## Transcript name is Sergey. You are on the Kiga channel. And in this video, I'll talk about my expectations for 2026 in the context of all global markets. So, we'll talk about the cryptocurrency market, about the metals market, because the picture that's emerging for precious metals isn't just interesting, but truly terrifying . We'll look at precious metals through the lens of the stock market, exploring how the rise of gold and silver and the stock market are interrelated. What does it mean? for the stock market. We will also look at the foreign exchange market. These are the dollar-ruble and dollar-hryvnia currency pairs. Since 70% of the channel's audience are people living in Russia, and approximately 25% are people living in Ukraine. I will share my vision regarding these currency pairs for 2026. And at the end of the video, I'll show you something interesting about the Venezuelan stock market. So, let's get started. And we'll start with cryptocurrency. timeframe. In the first half of 2026, I expect to see an upward correction here. Let me remind you that a correction is a movement against the main trend. Accordingly, if the correction is upward, then the trend is globally downward. I expect to see this correction either from the current values, that is, through this kind of either from the current values, that is, through this kind of movement, or through movement, or through another update of the local minimum, that is, through this kind of movement. It's clear that since Bitcoin makes up the majority of the cryptocurrency market capitalization, we'll see the same correction on the total capitalization chart. This is the same daily timeframe chart. And again, either the correction will occur from the current values, as I showed on the chart, or through as I showed on the chart, or through another update of the local minimum. But the point is that after the correction I expect the downward movement to continue. This scenario will lose its relevance when the global maximum is updated . That is, if the global maximum is suddenly renewed, then the scenario of continuing the downward movement after this correction will become irrelevant. However, I do not expect the global maximum to be updated. Just keep in mind that if this happens, this scenario will become invalid. Now let's look at the graph of the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market excluding Bitcoin. That is, this is the capitalization of altcoins. And here the picture becomes more interesting. During this upward correction, which will most likely occur in the will most likely occur in the first half of 2026, I expect a slight update of the global maximum in the total capitalization of altcoins. This means that there will likely be some discrepancy between the overall capitalization of the cryptocurrency market and the capitalization of altcoins manifest itself in a decrease in Bitcoin dominance. That is, in the first half of Bitcoin dominance. That is, in the first half of 2026, I also expect to see 2026, I also expect to see Bitcoin dominance decline to around 50%. This is a direct graph of Bitcoin dominance on the daily timeframe. And Bitcoin dominance on the daily timeframe. And I have outlined the scenario here. And a decrease in dominance will mean that funds will flow from Bitcoin to altcoins. Now I will summarize everything that has been said so far and draw a conclusion in terms of the actions that I will take in the cryptocurrency market. In the first half of cryptocurrency market. In the first half of 2026, I expect an upward correction in the overall capitalization of the cryptocurrency market. And at the same time, a slight update of the global maximum in altcoin capitalization. The divergence between total market capitalization and altcoin market capitalization should manifest itself in a decline in Bitcoin dominance to around 50%. And during this to around 50%. And during this movement, I expect the goals to be realized on some individual altcoins. These are altcoins from our green list altcoins from our green list that are trading within tight ranges. Now I will demonstrate a couple of examples. Leaving aside Ethereum, my Leaving aside Ethereum, my main focus in 2026 will be on Litecoin. This is a chart of the Litecoin cryptocurrency. Weekly timeframe. Those who have been watching my channel for a long time are familiar with this reliable structure. A similar situation emerged for the XRP cryptocurrency ahead of a strong upward momentum. Accordingly, during this upward correction, which was previously announced, I would like to see an exit announced, I would like to see an exit from this range upwards and the realization of our growth goals. The first goal is $300 and the second goal is $425. At the same time, my average purchase price is at the quote of $89 and the scenario is cancelled when the minimum of wave C of the triangle is updated the minimum of wave C of the triangle is updated at this location. This value is around $45. The result is a long-term position with a long-term position with a risk management ratio of approximately 8 to 0. Trust Wallet Token also has excellent risk management . If we open a position at this point, use the formation's potential as a profit-taking target , and triangle's wave C at this point as a loss-taking target, then let's see what relationship we get here. We will get the ratio of potential profit to risk. Approximately 14k. For me, Litecoin is an investment, meaning I use the capital allocated to the cryptocurrency market for it. And my position on Trustwall Token is related to a trading position. That is, to work out this position, I use a trading deposit. Both positions are trading deposit. Both positions are spot, but my approach to them is different. You can find more trading investment ideas in the Kigi You can find more trading investment ideas in the Kigi Premium channel. And I warn you that during this local upward correction, only a few altcoins will demonstrate a few altcoins will demonstrate upward momentum. Most will continue to fall in accordance with our scenarios. Of course, you can see some small local rebound on them, but it will be insignificant. Let's move on last year I started an investment project with a salary of $1,000 per month. This is a full-fledged public capital that I will use to reflect some of my decisions on the financial markets. This project is completely transparent. I keep it on Telegram and record all my purchases and sales. We didn't make any purchases during the New Year holidays, so any missed transactions went into the investment reserve, which is the currency of this portfolio. I am currently working on adapting the investment declaration for 2026. And in the Telegram channel, a QR code has now appeared on your screen; I will be sharing all the information about this project. So if you decide to follow or replay it, please subscribe. Let me remind you once again that this is a long-term project, meaning it is designed for at least 5-7 years ahead, since in my view, the market should experience upheavals that will provide us with good opportunities to enter the market. And now we will analyze these most likely shocks using the chart of shocks using the chart of precious metals, gold and silver. Last year, gold and silver rose extremely strongly and even exceeded my expectations. That is, I expected gold to be around 4,000, now it’s already more than 4,000. And I expected silver to be around 4,000, now it’s already more than 4,000. And I expected silver to be around brought me a lot of profit, but the point is that their growth is an extremely negative sign for the global financial markets. Precious metals have five key phases. The first phase is when precious metals are of little interest to anyone. This is the accumulation phase. We see accumulation, for example, in this place. Below I have a chart of the S&P500 index. All this is a monthly time frame. We also see accumulation in this area. Here is a correction of the highest degree. And here too there is a correction of the senior degree. Next, the second phase is the accelerated growth of gold. That is, this is when the return on gold exceeds the return on the index for a specific period of time. That is, the index, for example, either stands still or rises slightly, but gold makes a strong upward impulse. I will take information a little to the right, since there is more of it here. The information on the left is not very objective. Note that the strong momentum in gold Note that the strong momentum in gold occurred when the stock index was range-bound. At that point in time, gold was significantly outperforming the index. We see the same phase in this place at the previous crisis. That is, gold is rising, while the stock index is only slightly updating its previous global maximum. And now we see the same discrepancy. Gold is making an extremely strong upward impulse. At a time when the stock index is barely moving. from the spot. To make sure, we can compare the S&P 500 index returns and gold returns since the end of 2022 for comparison. The index's return over this time is approximately 100%, while gold's return over this time is approximately 200%. Gold's returns are outpacing those of the Gold's returns are outpacing those of the S&P 500. The third phase, a more dire harbinger of crisis, is the outpacing growth of silver. That is, when not only gold outperforms the stock index, but silver at that moment outperforms both the stock index and gold. Again, we take the index and gold. Again, we take the period from the end of 2022. Gold period from the end of 2022. Gold has shown 200% growth, while silver has shown 200% growth, while silver has shown growth of about 400% during the same period. That is, the profitability of silver over this period is twice that of gold. This is the very third phase. And after the third phase comes the most terrible time, which is called crisis shock. That is, there is a strong upward momentum in gold and silver , but then everything falls at the same time: the stock market, gold, and silver. Absolutely everything falls at this moment. It's just that precious metals are falling less, while the stock market is falling more. Let's pay attention to this movement. That is, after this impulse, a correction of a higher degree formed in gold. And at the same time, a terrible crisis occurred on the stock market. The same thing happened in this place, if you look closely. That is, the stock index falls sharply, by about 50-60%, falls sharply, by about 50-60%, and at this time gold acts as a protective asset, that is, it falls less than the stock market, preserving investors' funds. And the final, fifth phase is the culmination. That is, when after culmination. That is, when after a fall, gold and silver make one more final culminating impulse before a correction of a higher degree. Now, given the structure of the stock index and the structure of gold and silver, I index and the structure of gold and silver, I expect a major correction to begin in the near future, most likely in 2026 expect a major correction to begin in the near future, most likely in 2026 . That is, we will see a decline in the S&P 500 index, correction, and then the market will begin to recover. At the same time, gold and silver will experience a culminating impulse, and after that they will go into a correction of a higher degree, as happened in this place. I'll open the gold chart on the weekly timeframe. Here I expect to see movement like this. That is, the beginning of a correction of a higher degree, followed by a culminating impulse and a deeper correction. Let me summarize everything that has correction. Let me summarize everything that has been said previously. That is, we are now in the third phase of typical movements of precious metals during a crisis. This is a strong bullish momentum in gold and silver, with gold outperforming the index and silver outperforming gold. And the fourth phase is the crisis itself, the crisis shock. And it is quite likely that this very correction of the highest degree, this very crisis shock, will form in 2026. After this, we will enter a correction of the senior degree for approximately 3-5 years, and then the market will begin to recover. At the beginning of will demonstrate final climactic impulses and only after that will they enter a deeper correction for decades to come. To protect yourself during the crisis shock, I recommend keeping the majority of your funds in an investment reserve, that is, in cash. Now I will tell you what I expect from the dollar-ruble and dollar-hryvnia currency pairs in 2026. This is the dollar-ruble currency pair on a daily timeframe. Here I expect the price to move within a narrow range and subsequently exit it downwards with the realization of the potential. The potential is located in the region of 65 rubles. per dollar. There is also a scenario that this correction may become more complex and develop into a double zigzag. That is, we will exit this range upwards, slightly update the local maximum and only after that make a downward correction. In terms of the final outcome in 2026, I expect to see a decline in the dollar-ruble currency pair to approximately 65 rubles. Now let's move on to the dollar- to approximately 65 rubles. Now let's move on to the dollar- hryvnia currency pair. Here the price is within the framework of the culminating impulse that precedes the end of the military conflict. Of course, it is impossible to predict exact dates. I expected the military conflict to end last year. Now I bring these last year. Now I bring these expectations to this year. The point is that the culminating impulse means the imminent start of a higher-order correction, and a fall in the dollar-hryvnia currency pair is a positive situation for the country. The end of the military conflict is evidenced not only by the dollar-hryvnia currency pair, but also by shares of Russian companies. Let's take them apart. Before that, I'll show you an interesting picture of the Venezuelan stock exchange index . Notice how much growth has occurred here in a short period of time. On January 3, Trump launched a military operation and captured the president. The growth, please note, began even before January 3rd. That is, the market had some expectations. And then, when that arrest happened, the market shot up about 300%. That is, the abrupt change in the situation in the country abrupt change in the situation in the country contributed to the growth of the stock market. Now the Russian stock market is also expecting a strong upward momentum. For example, this can be seen in the shares of the company Surgutneftegaz. I have already shared the schedule with you. And there are preferred shares of the Rostlecom company. That is, as the Venezuelan stock exchange index has shown, the abrupt change in the situation in the country contributed to the extremely strong and rapid growth of the country's stock market. This country's stock market. This change in conditions could well mark the end of a military conflict that has been going on for an extremely long time. Therefore, to sum it been going on for an extremely long time. Therefore, to sum it up, I will say that in 2026 I expect the end of the military conflict and, as a result, a sharp rise in the Russian stock market. The Ikй Premium channel contains several dozen trading investment ideas within the Russian stock market. So, if you are interested, you can subscribe to it . decided to give up short-term trading because I no longer saw the point in it. My statistics and those of many others suggest that medium- and long-term approaches are much more effective than short-term ones. And, for example, one person, trading short-term, can open thousands of transactions per year, wasting a lot of nerves and time. The second person, using open only a couple dozen trades per year and exceed the profitability of a short-term trader. So , if I had to choose between time trading and spending a minimum of time trading, I would, of course, choose the latter. But short-term trading is useful for those who are learning. This means that useful for those who are learning. This means that not for making money. All short-term traders will lose in the long run unless, of course, they stop in time and switch to longer-term approaches and investments. Also, one of the main missions of our channel is to convey to people the correct attitude towards money. And the right attitude towards money implies wisdom in managing your resources. And it goes without saying that investing the majority of your capital in short-term speculation is not very wise or prudent. It is much wiser to invest these funds and, through systematic actions and discipline, as well as compound interest, gradually increase your capital. And the fact that you supposedly have a small capital or a small amount of income is not an excuse, since even the smallest amounts in the long term, thanks to compound interest and discipline, turn into a large, impressive capital. I'm proving this right now in the investment-from-scratch project I'm running on the Telegram channel. The QR code has just appeared on your screen. In the long run, the wise and intelligent investor always wins . A trader, no matter who they are, will always lose unless they stop in time and focus on medium- and long-term approaches and investing in general. That's why I recommend everyone to get involved in investing. Absolutely everyone, no matter what you do. But I recommend trading only to those few who are suitable for it. And then only during one specific period of your life, when you have some financial goals that need to be achieved. But in the long term, I absolutely do not recommend trading to anyone, only investing. Friends, this is where our video comes to an end. If you found this video helpful, be sure to like it, subscribe to the channel if you haven't already , and click the bell so you don't miss out on future helpful videos. I wish everyone all the best, profit, and victory. I love you all and bye to everyone.