---
title: 'Uh Oh | The Jobs Report'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=tbiKJvu-GLw'
video_id: 'tbiKJvu-GLw'
date: 2026-10-02
duration_sec: 1315
channel: 'Meet Kevin'
---

# Uh Oh | The Jobs Report

> Source: [Uh Oh | The Jobs Report](https://youtube.com/watch?v=tbiKJvu-GLw)

## Summary

The video is a live reaction to the U.S. jobs report, which came in at a massive miss of 29,000 jobs versus 90,000 expected. The creator analyzes the report's components, highlighting AI-driven job losses in financial activities and the implications for the Federal Reserve's rate hike path. The market reacts positively, with yields dropping and the NASDAQ hitting new highs.

### Key Points

- **Jobs Report Preview** [00:00] — The jobs report is coming out in 4.5 minutes, and the creator is setting up a preview. He expects volatility and is preparing to analyze the data live.
- **Expectations and AI Disruption** [00:26] — The expectation was for 70,000-75,000 jobs, with the last estimate at 75,000. The previous report came in at 90,000, beating expectations. The creator notes that AI disruption is being masked by the broader economy's build-out.
- **ADP Report Breakdown** [01:09] — The ADP report showed declines in customer service, professional services, and financial activities, but gains in construction, manufacturing, education, healthcare, and leisure. The creator uses this to illustrate the 'blanket' effect.
- **Nike's Decline** [02:00] — Nike's stock continues to fall, down another 7% after earnings. The creator notes that competition is hurting margins and pricing power, and that even a year ago, Nike Direct had 'horrible numbers.'
- **BLS Report Miss** [04:58] — The BLS report came in at 29,000 jobs, way below the 90,000 expected. The prior month was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000. The two-month revision is negative 60,000. This kills the case for an October rate hike.
- **Wage Growth Weakness** [06:17] — Average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% month-over-month, down from 0.3%, and 3% year-over-year versus 3.1% expected. Worker pricing power is shrinking.
- **Labor Force Participation** [06:42] — The labor force participation rate rose to 61.8% from 61.6%, which pushed the unemployment rate up to 4.2% from 4.1%. The creator warns this is a 'danger' sign.
- **Financial Sector Job Losses** [08:07] — Financial activities lost 129,000 jobs since May 2025, with most losses in insurance carriers. This is a clear sign of AI disruption in the sector.
- **AI Disruption Masked** [08:34] — The creator argues that the overall economy is covering up AI job losses, but if the AI build-out slows, the underlying weakness will be exposed. The Fed must be careful.
- **Rate Hike Odds** [09:23] — The jobs report increases the odds of a single rate hike, which the creator had bet on via Kalshi. He mentions he picked it up at 9 cents and was up 98%.
- **Market Reaction** [11:18] — The 10-year Treasury yield plummeted after the report, and the NASDAQ hit all-time highs within five days of the prediction, beating the 14-day window.
- **Household Survey Strength** [17:18] — The household survey showed 485,000 jobs created, a strong number, but the participation rate rise complicates the picture. Long-term unemployment only rose by 14,000.
- **Canary Signals** [18:35] — The two main canaries for the market are the underwriters of the AI trade (Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX) and the labor market. As long as these hold up, no need to worry about rate hikes.

### Conclusion

The jobs report miss is a clear warning sign of AI-driven disruption in the labor market, but the broader economy is still holding up. The Fed will likely pause rate hikes, and markets are celebrating with new highs, but the underlying cracks are worth monitoring.

## Transcript

We're cooking into the jobs report. Jobs report comes out in about four and a half minutes, and we are going to set up a preview for what to expect. When you were expecting volatility,
oh, there's nothing like a good old jobs report at 5.30 in the morning to get those juices flowing. Who doesn't love that?
All right, let's take a look. So this obviously is from two days ago. Don't get confused. This is from two days ago. But the expectation here was that we were going to get somewhere between 70,000 to 75,000 jobs.
The last estimate was that we were going to get 75,000 jobs. We ended up getting 90K. So we kind of keep beating here on these expectations for the labor market, which is weird because, you know, new technologies are supposed to create disruption.
And I think they actually are. They are creating disruption, in my opinion. But any of that potential disruption is being masked by that total build-out that we're getting in the broader economy,
partly due to artificial intelligence. I mean, look, for example, if you look at that ADP report, you know, we got those declines in things like customer service, which will be part of professional and business services, or financial activities.
Think about compliance departments, which, you know, this is a very difficult job to keep broker-dealers and banks compliant with banking regulators and financial oversight regulators.
Holy moly. Or the regulators themselves. Goodness gracious. That would be government. But anyway, financial activities, professional services, this side down, but it gets covered by construction, manufacturing, education, healthcare, leisure, hospitality.
People are spending money. The only thing they're not spending on are Nike shoes, which is fine. I continue to get asked about Nike, and I continue to not like this sock.
This sock yesterday had earnings, and it's down yet another 7%. Like, you'd zoom out and you'd look at this and be like, how? How is it freaking possible that something like Nike can keep going down?
Well, Nike going down is basically the same possibility as this jobs market rebounding the way it has been in such an impressive manner, not just this year, but over the many, many last years.
I mean, the last time I looked at Nike, I got so tired of looking at it, I just keep referring to my old notes. Last time I looked at Nike, I literally wrote on December 19th, 2025, even more depressing than last time.
And the reality is there's so much competition that their margins are suffering. Their pricing power is going to crap. Their balance sheet is okay, but their cash is getting eviscerated. In October of 2025, this is literally a year ago, okay?
A year ago. And what we're finding is that Nike is getting creamed. Even a year ago, Nike Direct had, I quote, horrible numbers.
So you lower discounts and sales drop. How is that good? I wrote. Not sure how sports strategy will save this. I wrote here. I mean, this is the analysis I did in the course member last year.
We were literally looking at competition in the course member last year. And so, you know, as just sort of a tangent, it's remarkable, yes, that a company that sucks, that we've been observing that sucks since October of last year when it was a $67,
can literally go down yet another 50%. That's fine. That's fine. But today, the focus is the job support. We've got to look at what we get with the job support.
Because it's going to affect yields. It's going to affect the market today. And we need to make sure that economically we're not falling off a cliff. Now, it's the BLS one, okay? The one we just looked at was the AEP report from Wednesday.
That's sort of your private fact check. We're about to get the BLS read. Watch yields, obviously, on the reaction function here. We are, 10-year has come down. Part of this is because of the Bethan buyback.
The double B, we went from the triple B, the big beautiful bill, to the double B, the Bethan, no, not boobs, the Bethan buyback. I guess that's still technically, is it two Bs or three? Because buyback, I think, is one word.
Man, I don't know. But what I do know is that we took your votes yesterday, and we took your advice, and we changed the domain name from Meet Reinvest to ReinvestOne for the terminal we're launching in Q4, the alpha memberships, the trade alerts.
Everything is now at ReinvestOne.com. So thank you for that. All right, here we go. We're expecting 90, and we get... Oh, it's low. Oh, that's going to be good for yields, but it came in at $29,000.
Whoa! It's still positive, but holy smokes, what happened here, buddy? That's an average of $7,255 per week. That is way worse than expected.
We also had a prior region that still left us at about $133,000. We were expecting $162,000. we got 133 so we're revised down 29,000
on the revision The two month revision is negative 60k which we well above that that fine but the change in private tables is 46 versus the 81 expected and the headline came in at 29 versus 90 that is way
lower than expected, which means expect yields to go down, man, this just killed the interest rate hike camp for October. At end, forget it. The hike, it just
got destroyed for October. Yields should dump on this. We've got average hourly earnings. Oh, worker P&P is shrinking too. Holy moly. This is the jobs report
Kevin decides to come back to at 5.25 in the morning and start live streaming about before he does the course member live stream and before he does the market live stream. This is the one I chose to do that on?
Holy moly. Average hourly earnings at 0.1%. Worker pricing power gone. Well, we've already kind of known that because of artificial intelligence. But it's been stable around 0.3%. This is just 0.1%.
Then you've got average hourly earnings year over year that missed as well at 3% versus 3.1%. Oh, and there it is. I've been warning about that labor force participation rate. That is a danger, danger, danger, danger.
because that has been, in my opinion, artificially coming down. And now it's coming back up. The problem is when it goes up, the unemployment rate should be going up. The unemployment rate will move up from 4.1% to 4.2%.
The labor force participation rate moved from 61.6% to 61.8%. We've got to be careful of that. Now, this is still okay. Let's see what the components are. It's not like it's some crazy negative read.
Again, though, 7,000-something jobs per week is not what we were working for. 7,250 jobs per week. This is pretty low. Let's go take a look at this and see if the household survey screwed something up here or what happened.
So this is where we're going to get the data right here. Healthcare employment continued to go up, but at a slower pace than the average. We got September employment continued to trend up at ambulatory care, hospitals, nursing homes, lost jobs, construction changed a little at plus 11,000.
That's roughly average. Manufacturing was a little changed, but is only up 72,000 since the low of December 2025. Yeah, but it's still up. Here you go. Financial activities. This is exactly what we're...
Oh, man. Look at that. employment and financial activities down 129,000 jobs since it's peaked in May of 2025
with most job losses in insurance carriers and related activities. There you go, man. That's what I'm saying. The overall market is covering up the –
and this is exactly what we said about the ADP report two days ago. I said the overall economy is covering up the sins. we are putting a blanket over the actual job losses that AI is creating
because we are creating more via people spending education and healthcare and, of course, construction and manufacturing to build out of the AI boom. So once that build out of the AI boom goes away, if this goes away and for some reason the market drops and leisure or hospitality goes away,
you're just left with mostly a negative bag. I don't know that education and healthcare is going to be able to save you. I don't think that starting point is anywhere close, but this shows you that the Fed damn well better be careful.
In fact, this would be a very interesting point to look up the Calci one-rate hike odds for the Fed, because I made a video where in it I incorporated the, I thought that the odds that we just get one rate hike were incredibly low.
and here it is. Honestly, that's still, now after this jobs report, still something to consider. Like, I picked this up when it was nine cents, just in full transparency.
I picked it up at like nine cents on CalSheet. It was like a hundred bucks or whatever. And I was up like 98% on it. I'm like, this is ridiculous. So my $100 turned into like $198 or whatever it was.
Mine is, I think, like a $2 fee or I don't know what it was. It really doesn't matter. But the point is, that was good. That, this job support, actually potentially reiterates that that might keep going. So, now, this is couching.
I like using it for the Federal Reserve. You know, I know some people like using it for sports, and I think that's fine. You can use it for whatever you want. I think it's really fun to go in there and bet against people who are talking about the Fed.
Because I basically sleep thinking about the Fed. And so they're a paid sponsor of the channel. you get $25 when you sign up for Calci and make your first trade at calci.com. Use code seekeven.
Scan the QR code when you sign up. So I think that's very interesting. This job support actually reiterates the potential that we are going to see that one rate hike sick.
And this increases those odds. How much is it closer? I don't know. Maybe this should be closer to 35%. Like it still seems like we're going to get another hike in December. But we get reports like this.
Uh-uh. Because even yesterday at the Federal Reserve you had folks come out and they were like look we okay hiking as long as the labor market can sustain it Any sign of a crack in the labor market Uh Uh
But the good news is the market's going to freaking love this. Because look, you've got literally a plummeting off the damn cliff on the 10-year treasury now. Damn. Who? Who? Is it too early to call, say, Kevin?
Call Pete Yields at 527? No, I did do that. And in fairness, yields did go up to about 532, so I was five basis points off. But on an old man, we're now like 9.4 basis points below that.
That's looking pretty good. Let's see how the market is reacting to that. And, oh, dude, let's freaking go. In the alpha report, baby, we made a prediction that between, I think it was Monday when we made the prediction,
And next Friday, we would hit all-time highs. So I gave you a 14-day window to hit all-time highs on the NASDAQ. Boom! Performed earlier than expected.
Again! But that's great. So it came within five days rather than within ten days in terms of trading. That's fantastic. This has been our call. And honestly, look, as much as I love shilling me,
oh, look, I even took out the Luigi today. As much as I love shilling, you join every damn thing I could possibly sell you in one freaking bundle.
As much as I love shilling, you going to meetkevin.com and checking out all of it, the alpha membership, the trade alerts, reinvest stocks platform coming in Q4,
with our complete terminal rewrite, you get reinvest homes, you get all nine courses, every course member live stream, and the brand new business module, business module, product number seven, course number 10, its own thing, coming in the first quarter of 2027, oh my
gosh, this is an amazing, amazing membership, and you get lifetime access to it too, which is really cool, but anyway, as much as I love shilling that, I think you would have to be freaking blind to not realize your boy Kevin has been bullish, and I mean, I think I've
made plenty of videos saying that. But then again, you know, some people only read the titles and that sucks for them. But we need to go back to the jobs report and look at the households report in just a moment. But I want to look at it. Dude, yesterday we literally
called for Marvell recapturing this 266 line and going for a breakout. If Micron, like our warning yesterday in the alpha report, this is how we set it up. We said, look, listen,
If Micron goes down more than 2%, you need to watch the triple Qs to make sure we bounce off of 735. And if we do, it reiterates that 735 is the new 700, and it's damn bullish.
And look at that, dude. I mean, we got within $1.27 there, but that's pretty good. That shows you the floor on the Qs is stable yesterday. This is exactly the stuff we talked about in our alpha reports.
Oh, my lordy. Reliability, even in video, is up at $236. Honey, somebody call home. What is going on? All right, let's go take a look at the rest of the unemployment, or I should say employment report.
But anyway, average hourly earnings, we looked at that already. Employment, little change from major industries, and retail, trade, transportation, warehousing, information, technology, business services. I actually surprised a lot of this isn't negative. This disaster in insurance is really interesting.
To me, I mean, think about it. Insurance underwriting? Come on, man. It makes sense that there's going to be a lot. There's going to be a lot of underwriters using AI. I mean, the way I look at it is if I was a really good underwriter at an insurance company on my job, I don't know.
Maybe I can underwrite a policy once every 20 minutes plus a coffee, piss break, 30 minutes of policy. So what do I got? Eight-hour day. if I'm productive, I got, you know, at those rates, at those numbers, I got 16 insurance policies.
I could underwrite a day as an insurance writer pre-AI. You now shove AI up my butt, I could probably do 48, which means I just 3x the number of policies I could write, which we ain't getting
three times as many policies in the damn door. This is what people forget, is the top still has to grow, but at the top, we might be going from 16 policies I need to underwrite to 18
or to 20. Okay, fine. There's our 3% to 5% growth, whatever it is. That even might be a little bit more generous. 10% growth, whatever. But I can now do three times as many. So it totally makes sense that this is just one of those early victims of artificial intelligence
right here. That's my assumption. I mean, they just wrote insurance carriers and related activities, that's my assumption, or even, honestly, claim specialists, although a lot of claim specialists actually have to travel to sites, that's going to be a little while
before you get good old Optimus robots taking that job, but anyway, so, let's see here, private service producing, 28,000, total private, here's the non-farm, got it, alright, blah,
blah blah blah blah temporary help went negative that interesting so usually temporary help goes up when you have a really strong economy So I don love seeing temporary help fall like this although
it did in July and September of last year as well. This far left line is September of last year. It's a little weird how they do these charts, but that's why I pointed out. Let's see. Super, as a percent of all employees. Okay, let's see here. Total hours. That's
far, I'm a spy, okay, yeah, there's nothing else that's really useful here, uh, let's go to the household data, mmm, okay, okay, the, the household labor read, that's nice,
dude, but it also, you need to recognize this here, holy smokes, the household's report went up by 485,000 jobs, even though we have a miss on the headline number on non-farm
payrolls, which is, you know, businesses getting phone calls. How many people do you have employed? This survey, which is calling households, do you have a job? Okay, they're different surveys. This survey says 485,000 jobs were created, which what is freaking remarkable
about that is we still somehow created that while the participation rate rose 0.2%, which So as we created this, we get this rise in participation. And that removes a lot of people from these numbers.
Let's see here. We also got not in the labor force. Wow. See, this is the participation. I don't know if this is directly the participation rate going up. But anyway, people considered not in the labor force actually fell by 346, which is also good.
So overall, this is juicy. This is good. but you have to be aware of those canaries, right? This is an early canary, a very, very early canary, kind of like a, I mean, we say this
all the time, the two main canaries are the underwriters of the AI trade and the second is the labor market. The underwriters of the AI trade are Anthropic, OpenAI, this is obvious, okay, this is old
news. That might change in two years. They may no longer be the underwriters of the AI trade, but they're the open, they're the underwriters right now, and then, of course, you have support services for them, like SpaceX, who's providing infrastructure, right?
And then on the flip side, you have the labor market. This also has to hold up. Those are your two halves of the canary of the market. And as long as those two are doing okay, you don't need to worry, in my opinion, about
rate hikes. Dude, the Fed does not want to hike rates. The Fed wants to cut rates. And no, that's going to be really juicy for the good old real estate. Not right now, but that's okay.
I'm a patient boy. All right, so what do we got over here? We've got men, women. Okay, less so interested in this. Okay, what do we have over here? 27 weekend over. This is another number you could look at this report.
These are your long-term unemployed. And long-term unemployed only up 14,000. That's actually decent. And so what you're seeing is you're seeing an increase in job re-entrants and new entrants who were not participating in the labor market before because maybe, you know, they were living at home with mommy and daddy or they lost their job and they got discouraged and then they had to go read some books and retrain and it took them a year to find a job and then they finally have a job again.
Whatever. Okay? We're not trying to minimize studying. Y'all don't give a fuck studying and reading books. We're not trying to minimize that. We're trying to say sometimes there's a reason you don't have a job for a while. Anyway. All right.
Where were we? Damn. That looks good. How are we going to come up with a strategy for this? Well, that's what we're going to do. We're going to go do the Alpha Report and Course Member Livestream now. So, remember, if you want to be part of that for life, which is actually kind of insane
that we are giving people the opportunity to get lifetime access to this because the amount of money we have to spend on providing the terminal is pretty damn juicy. But we think it's going to be win-win for everybody
and it's going to help us launch this platform going into Q4. In the next year, we're going to a license model. Anybody, obviously, who has lifetime access before that locks in and we'll have a special setup for course members within the next,
probably by Monday, maybe later today. We'll figure something out. Because some existing members are going to get a nice special, special deal. We always like making sure the course members are really taken care of when we have new stuff.
Some people have been course members since 2017. They paid very little, and they've been getting a whole lot. So we're very excited to keep taking care of our existing members. But of course, we'd love for you to be a member as well.
And we think if you get lifetime access, you will get very well taken care of. So come join us. Anyway, I got work to do. This overall 29-doubt is something to keep an eye on.
It is one of the canaries, but the underlying mechanisms are so far looking okay. But it is starting to show you that some AI disruption is showing up.
We just have to outgrow that. So, with that, I need like a by the rally sound. Oh, man. Your poor Kevin just lost lots of money.
Oh, that's okay. I am with you.