[00:00] So did you know that there is a football betting strategy that will allow you to And in fact, there are key points around the season where And it may sound a bit odd, but it's true.
[00:15] it, just watch the rest of this video.
[00:27] as to how well you're gonna do over the course of the season? Will you win the league or finish bottom? You know, uh, but the fans are the best in the country and that
[00:42] up and coming midfielder, well, he looks pretty good as well. For your performance over the course of the season, but that is one factor that is very, very dominant and ultimately it comes down to money.
[01:00] And the interesting thing about the way that the league is structured now is that the teams that have the largest amount of turnover, uh, get the most amount of money and they can buy the best players, the best facilities,
[01:12] the best coaches, the best managers, uh, all of those things together, and There is a very strong correlation between teams that have the most amount of money End up getting relegated.
[01:27] It's not as competitive as it used to be, and it is absolutely Now, from a betting perspective, this means that when you look at the odds for
[01:40] the teams that have the most amount of money will be the favorites to win. Or get promoted from a lower league and the teams that are struggling financially
[01:53] That is just the way that it works. for us if we're gonna be actively betting and trading on football.
[02:05] Um, so let me explain exactly why that is the case. So this strategy is a bit unusual in that it picks on an unusual market. One of the best opportunities that you get with this particular strategy
[02:19] I know that sounds really bizarre, but it's true. So we know that teams that buy in talent.
[02:32] And teams that don't do that will finish a little bit lower down in the league. Now it's all relative to a certain, um, in uh, aspect because if you
[02:44] have a really good squad and you bring in some reinforcements, some new players, or get rid of some deadwood, then what you will find. Is that that improves your chances of being able to, uh, go further
[02:57] So obviously if you're a mid table team and you bring in some new talent, then obviously that would lift your chance of finishing higher up the league. improve your chances, but only relative to the second team and how
[03:12] So you need a little bit of football knowledge for this particular strategy, but essentially what you're doing is you are looking at the transfer windows and going out and seeing how that will affect the chances of each individual team.
[03:30] And what will happen is when you look at all of the, uh, player transfers that are taking place, you'll be able to, uh, second guess what's gonna happen within. The market because the market will end up discounting that into the price of a
[03:45] team, winning a league, getting relegated or getting promoted and stuff like that. And what you can therefore do is if you see like, for example, a team bringing
[03:57] in a really good player that will shorten their price of winning the league or getting promoted so you can actually back it when that deal is sort of underway. see their prices getting pulled in.
[04:11] Likewise, if your team is unable to sign any decent players, then to decline and the price will go out. So you can profit by backing and laying at those prices and then cashing out
[04:24] But how realistic is this and what sort of price moves do you see? Well, let's have a look at this year's transfer window. Uh, on this video though, you can do this in any league, but obviously the
[04:40] liquidity is higher in the Premier League and therefore it's easy to get your bets But when we look at the top of the Premier League, obviously. Their prices are shorter and most of your attention will be focused on those
[04:57] clubs simply because that's where most of the money is, and that's where the shouldn't exclude anything in there, um, as we'll see uh, in a second.
[05:09] transfer window has gone and how that's affected their price to win the league. summarize, um, the transfers that have taken place over the course of the season.
[05:28] spent, uh, 308, uh, million euros. And you can see here, um, Florian Viet has come in at 125 million.
[05:41] Um, Hugo think Bob has, uh, come in at 95 million. So they've made some big purchases here, but also, um, they've moved on. Uh, Louis Diaz, uh, not, uh, Darwin Nunes has a, a abouts to be moved on,
[05:55] So you can see they've done a fair bit of business, um, but they have They have received. So they are net spenders, uh, in this transfer window.
[06:08] Uh, so what do you think has happened, uh, to their odds of winning the title? Uh, given that they've, uh, brought in some, uh, big players for big money how this has affected their price.
[06:23] see the prices come in a little, you know, not a dramatic amount. Uh, you got rid of some players, you brought some slightly better ones in,
[06:35] That's essentially what the market has said on this occasion. bringing players back from loan.
[06:47] They've got a huge squad, uh, but they also have, um, the second largest expenditure so far, uh, this year in the transfer window. proportion to how many they've bought.
[07:00] You know, what a surprise, Chelsea, getting out the checkbook. Bearing in mind, they probably weren't expected to win the league. Um, but they are increasing their spending at a rate that is higher
[07:13] So Chelsea were odds of 20 or so, which is about a 5% chance of winning the league. their prices come into about 10.
[07:26] So it's a relatively small move, but obviously when you look at But that's simply because they were at a bigger price to start with, So necessarily that has pulled the price in.
[07:44] So let's look at Newcastle, uh, because their story's interesting this year. 'cause I'm sure that you are perfectly more than capable of doing your So I'm not gonna do that.
[08:00] Everybody that they've pursued, or nearly everybody that they've pursued So they've not been able to sign many people. sort of indicated that they are not interested in playing for Newcastle
[08:17] And that includes Alexander isac, their star player from last year Uh, so they are very likely to end up net negative. They will actually receive money if Eza actually ends up going
[08:33] And as a consequence, you know that's gonna have a significant impact because aren't in the ball game this year. So what impact do you think that that has had on their price?
[08:51] a 5% chance of winning the league. And in fact, what's turned out is that ISAC has said he wants to go.
[09:03] That's not particularly great, especially if you don't have a replacement. So it looks like it's not going to be in Newcastle's year unless if Eddie Howe can not impossible, but we're not concerned about something that is or isn't possible.
[09:21] We're just saying what's the impact on the chances before the season has started? And in this case, it's particularly negative for Newcastle fans. And we should look at the relegation markets because you will have, see
[09:36] haven't got the same budgets as some of the other teams will be clustered And what you're looking for here is you're sort of saying, you know, of the teams
[09:48] that we're looking at, uh, which ones have spent more money or made good signings. Uh, relative to the others because if these teams, um, are heavy odds on, splash the cash a bit, they're improving their chances of not being relegated.
[10:05] Will drift, and that's the sort of strategy that you would deploy here. stay in the Premier League, and if they're having a particularly good
[10:18] You can layer at the lower price, back it at the higher price and cash out for a So let's have a look at some of these teams and see what So if we look at the relegation battle, I can summarize this really
[10:34] any of the other teams at the bottom. They've all spent a bit of money, but Sunland has spent far more than anybody else, and this is clearly an attempt to stay in the Premier League.
[10:46] hundred over 140 million Euros and. it's significantly less than the amount of money that they've spent. They have really invested in an attempt to stay in the Premier League.
[11:01] We can see, or we know that most of the teams that get promoted are at What do you think has happened to Sunderland's Price, given the amount of money that they've spent on bringing new players in?
[11:15] have significantly outspent them. The prices drifted because they were at heavy odds on to be relegated.
[11:27] therefore their odds have lengthened. and you would've made money. So yeah, the amount of spending was directly correlated to this drift.
[11:42] And you know, it's weird to be able to profit before the football season has even started, but what you're doing is you're focusing on that transfer window and you're looking at how each of those teams has performed during the transfer
[11:56] window, because that will directly affect their chance of either winning Or if we're in a lower league getting promoted and all we're how much money they've spent.
[12:09] Because if they are outspending people that are in or around the same situation, then necessarily you'll see their price, uh, shorten, uh, as they stand
[12:21] Or if we're looking at the low end of the league and the relegation battle, chance of allegation will begin to drift. When that move has taken place, uh, then you can actually profit.
[12:38] And of course we get another, uh, shot at this when we get rounds to little bit extra to avoid relegation or perhaps increase their title, chance.
[12:50] Uh, can improve their position at this time of the year as well. years ago and something that I have a go at every year simply because the price and that gives you the chance to be able to profit from it.