[00:02] here's the scoop. No matter how great you're doing right now in the artificial intelligence boom, we're dealing with a pretty big suckening right now. And there's one thing I can tell you. The more companies suck capital out of the
[00:16] more companies suck capital out of the stock market, the worse stocks do. We knew this would happen back when Google and SpaceX ended up sucking about a hundred billion dollars a piece at the end of May and the beginning of June. We
[00:29] warned about the great sucking coming and what happened? We had six weeks of the stock market going down and he ended up having people getting liquidated and destroyed. What's happening now? Now the crazy thing is you're having a suckening
[00:43] again. Broadcom with two massive funding rounds for OpenAI and Anthropic. Oracle SpaceX needs $40 billion which is really just like onetenth of what they need. Meta issuing uh stock splits so they could create a dual class of shares. so
[00:58] they could fund raise more and allow Zuck to sell non- voting shares so he could pay his taxes in California should California end up uh sucking him for some money. You know, there's a lot of suck going on and they got to raise more
[01:11] money and Meta just went negative cash flow. That's a lot. You put all this like, you know what, maybe I'm just going to go buy bonds. Maybe Kevin's right and the peak of bond yields was about 5.27 27 and I'm going to go buy
[01:26] some bonds now because if that peak comes down the value of my bonds goes up. And if you take a look here, if you bought at about 5.27, look at where the peak was right here. If you bought around 5.27, you'd be way up on those
[01:38] bonds right now because yields went straight down. And they have an inverse relationship. Yields today down 17.2 basis points, which is crazy. Oh, look, OpenAI nears up to $30 billion in funding at $1.25 $25 trillion valuation
[01:51] funding at $1.25 $25 trillion valuation led by the UAE. Even they are sucking us now. So more sucking. Now it's open AI. Guess it wasn't enough that they had a spy on the inside hiding hidden cameras
[02:05] and microphones, you know, behind TVs. It's actually kind of cool how uh OpenAI ended up figuring out it was there, but you know, still it's like, oh man, shows you this boom is getting a little shy. Uh but that
[02:18] said, Treasury yields coming down does indicate a flight to safety. We're not seeing that flight to gold. We already know why. We know, we've talked about gold adnauseium and my opinions on that. So, we won't focus on that. But you are
[02:30] seeing that even though companies are now beating, companies are selling off, which is kind of strange, but it is normal when you're in a big suck. Energy comes in with a pretty big beat. Their adjusted EPS came in like 50% over
[02:45] Their adjusted EPS came in like 50% over expectations, 94 cents versus 68. Their adjusted Ibida comes in at uh 299.5 million versus 241.2, which is great. And yet their stock is down. You had Western Digital that uh they also beat
[03:00] and raised. They see their Q2 EPS at almost a dollar more at a midpoint of almost a dollar more at a midpoint of 580 for EPS forecast for Q2 versus 4.82 expected. and their Q1 revenue beat as well at 4.38 billion versus 4.15 and
[03:17] their Q1 adjusted EPS. So you're getting like these beaten raises and you're barely seeing a reward for these companies right now because people are nervous like ah the trend is down, the momentum's down, let's let's just sell
[03:30] AI stocks. It's creating a glorious opportunity. This morning in our course member live streams I said don't bother buying between 7:07 and 7:15. This is not the zone to buy in. You buy when we break through and you're between 700 and
[03:47] 707. That's the buy zone right here. This box right here. This box is the buy zone. This is where in September we had peak fear. And guess what? Now we got more peak fear on some delicious suckening.
[04:01] And who doesn't want a good suckening? Well, AI companies love it. And even their valuations are falling to the lowest levels we've historically seen, we're actually seeing these stocks underperform in the near term, which is
[04:16] like, "Oh, what do you mean their valuations are low?" What I mean is this. Look at this particular chart here. Sam Ro posted this Yardini chart, I think it is. Yeah, it's a Yardini chart. Forward PE ratios are collapsing
[04:29] chart. Forward PE ratios are collapsing for the S&P 500 component companies whereas forward earnings are going straight up. So earnings are going people are willing to pay for these companies and these earnings is going
[04:43] straight down. Uh this is a bizarre [snorts] wedge that's happening in the stock market. Uh anyway, obviously remember you can see everything that we're doing portfolio-wise and what we're allocating to or what we like or
[04:55] don't like. Uh if you join us over at reinvest one.com, pay once, you get lifetime access. A lot of you have been joining. A lot of uh existing course which is really exciting. I think it's probably one of the best testaments to
[05:07] members are like, "Yeah, I want to upgrade and get even more access." Which is pretty cool. But if you go to reinvest one.com right now, remember, uh days. You get the alpha membership, the
[05:22] portfolio transparency alerts, the reinvest stocks terminal, the homes terminal, the research terminal, all nine courses, every course member liveream, the consumer AI blueprint and the business AI blueprint, which is
[05:37] really good offering. Go check it out over at reinvest.com. Now, let's focus for a moment on these earnings because Bloom, you know, I looked at their earnings. I'm like, hey, you know, it seems good, right? I mean, there is some
[05:51] seems good, right? I mean, there is some reason for some people to get nervous. It can get overblown a little rapidly because year-over-year, this company's because year-over-year, this company's gone, you know, grown its revenue 2.38x.
[06:03] And year-over-year, it's costs are up 2.23x two 3x two three yeah x which means that uh their pricing power has grown year-over-year but some of that PP has started to shrivel just a little bit on
[06:18] the quarter over quarter so on a sequential basis they grew total revenue sequential basis they grew total revenue 16% but total costs are up 27%. that makes people a little nervous. At the same time as Iran is making people
[06:32] nervous, the pre-election is making people nervous. And of course, all this Anthropic news is making people nervous. Remember that Anthropic just saw its uh Remember that Anthropic just saw its uh price get cut uh from $2 trillion on
[06:47] estimates down to now expectations that they'll end up IPOing for just uh $1.5 they'll end up IPOing for just uh $1.5 trillion. Well, that's a 25% cut. Basically, 1/4 of the biz just got cut. So, you know, a lot of people are like,
[07:02] "Ah, crap. What happened here? This really sucks." Uh, and so sure enough, really sucks." Uh, and so sure enough, what do we have? Market's down. Let's So, if we zoom into this, we can see here, you know, I think that they're
[07:17] Christmas. The reason I make the call that they're going to IPO between midterms and Christmas is really because I think uh the market's going to rally after midterms and that's going to be the perfect time for them to IPO and
[07:30] quarter because the first quarter is when they had their big growth and they want that year-over-year growth to be in their projections, not in the past. When
[07:42] you actually look at a year-over-year growth chart and you have a big moment like they did in Q1 with Claude Co-work, you want to IPO before you lap that, not afterwards. Because the growth's just not going to look as good afterwards as
[07:56] right now, if you compare year-over-year, December to December before their big moment in Q1 of 26, December to December, they're going to look glorious. It's gonna be like, "Oh yeah, revenue is up 10x." you go June to
[08:11] June, it's going to be like, "Oh, yeah, our revenue is up 80%." You know, it's not going to be like, you know, a multi-x that it was if you go IPO sooner. So, that's why I think they're going to they've really got to IPO ASAP
[08:26] over here. Uh I think one of the issues though that you find is the company is really kind of in a rock and a hard place right? So, is it the most ideal time to go public right now when there's
[08:39] volatility and concern about AI? No. Do they kind of have to? Yeah, because A, fundraise really well privately anymore at these valuations, and B, so they kind
[08:51] money out of the market. And B, they don't want to pull that year-over-year lap or face that year-over-year lap problem. Now, they're also very critical and it's why I can't wait for them to be public because they have $518 billion of
[09:06] compute commitments, which is like really, really big, right? That's a lot of spending. Uh, and they need to raise money for that. So, this basically is a lot more suck. Let me write it down here. A lot more suck. And being public,
[09:22] uh, helps them. Uh, plus, we'll make the note of it. note of it. uh plus uh being public before they lap uh plus uh being public before they lap Q1 will let them brag about Q4 to Q4
[09:36] Q1 will let them brag about Q4 to Q4 earnings on their first uh post IPO earnings session probably in Jan or February. That's going to be a good brag that will help them suck
[09:50] that's the whole name of the game right financing problem. That's really what this is. I mean, look at this. Okay, talked about these on the channel already. Uh the the problem with these
[10:06] charts is these charts are really telling us, hey, like this S&P 500, you know, group of companies right now, uh they're kind of getting propped up by
[10:18] it's going to cause some serious when people worry about ohh you know is AI really going to be productive is it really going to lead to deflation and uh you know cost of goods sold for products
[10:31] or services a lot there's a lot of doubt I get it I happen to be really bullish uh but that's okay you know I I don't have to be right either I think I am but you know I I have this crazy maybe it's d delusional outlook that in the 2030s
[10:46] we're going to see this insane confluence of things that nobody's going know that we necessarily even need all of these things to happen, but I think and I tweeted this at Realme Kevin, but I think rates will end up back at zero
[11:00] by 2032. Maybe 2033, somewhere in that range. 2032, 2033, somewhere in that range. Rates will be back at zero. We'll have going to freaking skyrocket in the 2030s. I think we'll be over this Middle
[11:14] East and Russia bull crap. We'll be back to $40 per barrel on oil. And I think seeing now is going to end up leading to some serious deflation for goods and
[11:26] services. The concern is will the labor market hold up? And that's where the answer is probably no. So they'll have to print money so the Democrats can hand out more stimulus and socialism which will keep rates low because they're
[11:39] trying to, you know, ironically that's supposed to create inflation. But we'll be fighting so much deflation we won't see it. And so that keeps rates at zero and money printing going on, which is awesome for real estate. And it's almost
[11:51] that for the last four years and is still positioning with their little startup called Reinvest where when people sign up for the Reinvest One membership, we take that money and go buy more real estate or other assets.
[12:04] Mostly real estate. I'd say like 90% real estate. Uh like we just bought we just closed on another deal for what did we close? We closed on is an 800. It's about an $890,000 deal. It's I don't even think it's going to need $80,000 to
[12:19] more, but it's probably it's in like a 1.2 to 1.3 neighborhood. So, like, you know, we'll be all in for under a mill and and I think we'll be up two to And I think there just going to be more opportunities like that. So, we're
[12:33] really excited about that. But anyway, so so call me delusional on that. That's fine. I get it. And I get the uncertainty because the suckening is insane right now. Okay? I mean, look at some of this and I write this over here.
[12:45] The suck gets hardest when we hit max negative cash flow. We're not there yet. negative cash flow. We're not there yet. Okay, we are just now Okay, we are just now turning negative cash flow uh at Meta
[12:59] and others. So like the suck is really just hard starting to happen. Uh so you know hyperscaler Neocloud capex is expected to be $1.58 trillion in 2027.
[13:12] That's up 60% from 2026. You got to raise that damn money somewhere. And we just literally doubled. Like we doubled going into 798. Now we're going to go up to 158 and then we're expected to go up to 1.18. What
[13:27] finance is this? What finance is this? Lots of suck. And that creates more volatility in the market and that's why companies
[13:40] in the market and that's why companies are getting cheaper by the day valuation wise. You know that's that's my take on this. Now obviously you have these leases as well these sort of like hidden leases that make people very
[13:53] nervous. And I get it. You know Meta's got these uh leases as well for data because they think they're going to generate a lot of money with their uh muse models and selling these models to businesses and advertising or whatever,
[14:08] but it's going to take time to prove that out. And I don't think they'll see real revenue until the beginning of 2028 from their models. So, you know, that does give you a headwind between now and then for Meta. I'm bullish Meta. I'm
[14:21] also, you know, buy the dip on Meta, man. Uh you want to see the full buy the today, you know, this morning on the alpha report and I said and we were at like 5 we were at 7:15 this morning and I'm like, "Nah, don't buy the dip."
[14:37] me on my live stream this morning like, "Oh, should should we buy the dip?" I'm like, "No, you should." And then like I'm not giving personalized financial "Kevin, what do you think about buying the dip?" I'm like, "No, it has to get
[14:50] to 700 to 707." And it did on the cues. And then so, you the dip. Uh, you can see what those are. Join us over at reinvest one.com. If want to upgrade to the terminal, by the way, the first upgrade window already
[15:06] closed, but you could email us at staff@reinvest one.com. And remember, post, but if you're not a if if if you can't afford joining, I get it. One thing I would encourage you to do for free, uh, it's obviously very different,
[15:20] but you could get this daily wealth and daily digest and some price target mailing list at uh, meet Kevin.com/digest. meet Kevin.com/digest. But, uh, but let's think about this for
[15:33] But, uh, but let's think about this for a moment. So if we go back to this people are nervous about artificial intelligence because look at how much of uh artificial intelligence capital expenditures are contributing to S&P 500
[15:48] sales growth. S&P 500 sales growth, so the growth that exists in the S&P 500, 15% of it this year was due to AI capex. Next year that's expected to be 24%.
[16:02] That's huge. And guess where most of that freaking money is going? Nvidia. that freaking money is going? Nvidia. Nvidia is getting $690 billion from those capital expenditures. Uh, this is very bullish Nvidia, by the way. Bullish
[16:15] very bullish Nvidia, by the way. Bullish Nvidia. Nvidia is dirt cheap right now. Dirt freaking cheap. I mean, they're probably selling at like a 0.58 peg or inexpensive right now. Uh and then of course you're seeing a lot of AS6 which
[16:28] are custom accelerators which uh you know trreniums are built on the 75 and three nanometer nodes if I remember correctly like the tranium 3 is built I think on the 3 nanometers uh Google's doing the TPUs uh the trrenium's done by
[16:44] Amazon obviously and they do these in partnership generally with companies like Marll and Broadcom so the ASIC market's going to boom I really see this continuing in 27 and 28 eight you can see the forecast here of uh AS6 taking
[16:57] more and more market share of compute capacity so incremental compute capacity capacity so incremental compute capacity is not just GPUs or CPUs it's also these custom accelerators application specific integrated circuits the A6 uh but then
[17:11] mean we just talked about Bloom Energy how you could beat and raise and still go down in stock and look at gas turbines over at GE Vernova turbines over at GE Vernova turbine pricing is expected to be $3,000
[17:24] per kilowatt and they're sold out basically for the rest of the decade. Dude, this is not a boom that is some like, you know, here today, gone tomorrow boom. All these rich hyperscalers are plowing plowing money
[17:38] into this AI cycle. I think people are just hide your kids in their pants right now because you got you got an election coming up. You got threats about Iran, you know, oh, Iran says seven warships
[17:53] hit. You got Thran saying ships were encouraged by the US to cross, so we mind them. Donald Trump says it's fake news. Uh, the New York Times says, "Oh,
[18:05] the the plans are getting set up to attack." Sentcom says our blockade is working. Iran's got a clown of Donald Trump in jail. You know, every the world's on fire. You got the Fed meeting coming up in, you know, a week. Uh, next
[18:20] are they going to raise rates? It's there's so much bull crap going on right now. These are the times you generally buy. These are the times when the VIX is skyrocketing. You look and you go, don't worry about it. You could flee to safety
[18:34] over here and you could buy bonds, which you could buy bonds directly. You could also buy TLT. You could buy a stock that's very bankruptcy risk dependent that's very bankruptcy risk dependent over here. LDI, but this is a 57 cent
[18:47] over here. LDI, but this is a 57 cent stock that I don't think goes bankrupt year in it. I have some exposure to it. So, I want to be care like I I always So, I want to be care like I I always want to be clear, okay? I I am the last
[19:00] person who's trying to make money off of like, oh, I'm trying to, you know, it or whatever. Like, I I'd rather lose money. But uh but I this is an going to be able to survive for at least a year and I think we just hit peak
[19:15] yields which means I think this $57 stock a they're probably going to reverse split but before the reverse split I think they'll probably go back split I think they'll probably go back to a2 to $3 stock pretty damn quickly if
[19:27] yields keep falling like this # nog guarantees not personalized financial advice but this is a much more rate sensitive play than something like TLT but if you don't have the balls to touch a bankruptcy risk play. You could go for
[19:41] Rocket Mortgage or LAR. You know, LAR is the one that Berkshire Hathaway is scooping up. I don't have exposure to LAR. Again, full transparency, but um you know, their pricing power has gotten schlutoed.
[19:53] Not like Schlutoter bathrooms, more like slaughtered. Schlaughtered. Uh look at Lenar. I have Lenar up here. Look at Lenar. So margins have have dude, their margins have gone from 9% to 4.8%. their margins are getting sucked. So,
[20:08] it's not just the great sucking, it's the suckening of LAR margins because rates are so high. You know, their revenues are going down and multifamily, multifamily. Their revenues multif family have plummeted. Their uh headline
[20:21] numbers over here have come down as well. 7759 well. 7759 billion divided by 8253.6. I'm down 6% on headline revenue because it's just not a sexy time to buy real
[20:34] the chat's asking me, Kevin, will you be missing tomorrow's live because you'll be in line to pick up the iPhone dua? No, no, no. Like, no. And I'm not going
[20:46] to the Apple store. At least that's what I keep telling myself. Uh I I really I'm only disappointed in Apple because they said they put my order in, but I really don't give a flying hoodie duty. I've got so much work to do with Reinvest. I
[21:01] don't give a crap about the phone. I sit in the damn office a lot of the time anyway. Uh so it doesn't matter. Like if I had a doer and I'd be sitting here on a desk, okay? I've got I've got like 10 Apple computers that I run agents on. I
[21:16] got iPads I do research on. Sometimes I print because I think my vision is going to go kaput if I keep looking at screens all day long. Uh you know, it'd be it's Honestly, I was thinking to myself like I'd probably destroy the Duo if I went
[21:30] skiing with it this season because uh I don't think it's a very skiable device. At least the iPhone, you know, you could durable. And I go running with this puppy, too, which I don't know how I'm
[21:42] no, I'm not going to go stand in line for it. I will say Apple is the anti- AI suck. You have to know that. So, I and they announced the duo cuz I thought the
[21:56] puppy was going to get sold out. I am still bitter that Apple screwed me, but I'm over it. No, I'm not. I'm not I'm not over it. I'm over need like I don't need it, but I'm still pissed at them. So, I'm not over being pissed at them.
[22:08] But Apple, so we bought Apple at like 3:15 and we sent out an alert uh that we were buying this at like 3:15. And my alert was I I think this is iPhone Duo is going to sell out. like this is the next big upgrade cycle for Apple. And um
[22:23] financial advice. You could join us at reinvest one.com if you want. But I sent going to sell out. I believe this next upgrade cycle is here. But one of the reasons that Apple is also doing very well right now is because
[22:38] well right now is because Apple doesn't suck. Like they suck, but at at business for screwing their businesses, but they don't suck money because they don't have to fund raise like you know the the likes of Meta or
[22:53] Elon Musk or whatever with the great big sucking, right, Kevin? It's butter. Nah, I think you could justify it as as you know a business expense. I don't I don't think you necessarily have to call it butter. But um what is this race signals
[23:08] more AI powered demands because I see Bloom right now is down 5.8%. 8% and I see a note coming through the wires right now on it. Let me take a look at right now on it. Let me take a look at this right here with it. It's got
[23:23] this right here with it. It's got Okay, here we go. Uh, this is Bloom. Okay, here we go. Uh, third quarter 2026 guidance extends the AI power revenue ramp up and shifts focus to cash conversion. The revenue midpoint rose
[23:37] from July after Q3 sales climbed 16% sequentially which is freaking amazing. Non-GAAP income guidance also rose uh for the year 995 million midpoint from 850. Stronger earnings trajectory now needs to show up in cash after operating
[23:52] cash flow turned negative. Ah there it is. Operating cash flow turn negative. It's it's literally everybody just cares about the cash flow right now. And I get it. You know this is one of the reasons I like diversifying to real estate.
[24:05] I like diversifying to real estate. Like, you know, my view is, bro, 90% of buy real estate, by real estate, by real estate. Uh, I still love stocks, don't get me wrong. Like, I'm enamored by stocks. I always thought that, you know,
[24:18] I was weird looking at financial statements when I was 18, 19, 20 years old. I'm 34 now. Uh, and so I always thought, oh, everybody does that. I I must be clueless about stocks. And then you come to find out that like, oh, no,
[24:31] it's actually very rare for people to look at financial statements. Um, now look at financial statements. Like, let's go look at their actual cash flow let's go look at their actual cash flow statement here. So, uh, cash flow.
[24:43] Let's see here. Here's their net income, which was very well positive. I liter I think it's cut off. I think it's supposed to be right here. That's why I their website really quick. Let's look at their cash flow. Yeah, here we go.
[24:56] So, cash flow. Okay, here we go. Cash from operating activity. Oh, yeah. There you go. So, look at their plant property and equipment right here. negative 153 and equipment right here. negative 153 minus another 27. So we are 180 negative
[25:09] 180 in cash flow. Uh they got a lot of deposits. So deposit growth is up like 50% which is really nice. And that's in the last 3 months their deposit growth is up 50%. But they've spent more money on contract assets.
[25:24] Uh let's see here. They've put stockbased compensation they added back in. That's been pretty stable. Accounts receivable, I got that. Uh, that's a
[25:36] reduction. Okay. Long-term assets. Accounts payable actually went up. So, they still have more bills to pay right here. So, you know, point is bottom line, yeah, these companies go cash flow negative. The market's just punishing
[25:50] them right now. Uh, SpaceX, any potential Tesla combination would be special committee. Dude, nobody believes the special committee. Okay, the special committee is made up of people like Brad Gerson or whatever and and this schmuck
[26:05] Elon wants because, you know, he'll bend his he he'll he he'll get down on his knees for Elon. Hey, you know, maybe maybe that's not such a bad thing. I mean, Jensen basically does. [laughter] That's how the suck keeps going, man.
[26:19] Come on. In order for the suck to keep going, people got to get on their knees. Now, with that said, it's worth remembering that uh Donald Trump is probably setting up for the most glorious freaking [music] taco right
[26:33] now. Okay, I for one, and I tweeted this earlier, I for one cannot wait to see how many thousands of trades Donald Trump's team is setting up right now on Trump's team is setting up right now on the impending giant taco, baby.
[26:49] But in the meantime, [music] >> here we go. Come on, push it. Find the >> If you like that video, check this one out. I think you're going to love it. that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this.
[27:02] see how it goes. Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. >> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.