--- title: 'Thumbs Down' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=n39vdv2XCjw' video_id: 'n39vdv2XCjw' date: 2026-07-28 duration_sec: 176 --- # Thumbs Down > Source: [Thumbs Down](https://youtube.com/watch?v=n39vdv2XCjw) ## Summary The video analyzes the latest geopolitical tensions between Iran, Israel, and the US, focusing on the denial of an imminent nuclear deal and its market implications. It also covers SpaceX's $75 billion fundraise and the impact of venture capital lockup expirations on future sector rallies. ### Key Points - **Iranians Deny Deal Imminent** [00:02] — Iran denies that a deal is imminent, contradicting earlier claims that an agreement was close. - **No Deal, Provocations** [00:44] — Iranians indicate no plans to sign a deal, with provocations including Israel's attack on Beirut, leading to Hezbollah involvement. - **Debate on Israeli Actions** [01:15] — Some believe Israel is trying to sabotage a deal, while others see it as self-defense. - **Trump's Claim on Deal** [01:28] — Donald Trump claimed a deal would be signed on Sunday and the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, but this has not happened. - **Market Indifference to Geopolitics** [01:41] — The market does not care about the geopolitics; interest rates are near all-time highs, and oil prices are in the 90s. - **SpaceX Raises $75B** [01:56] — SpaceX raised $75 billion; lockups expiring will allow venture capitalists to invest in new sectors. - **Focus on Next Sector Rally** [02:20] — The speaker is watching which sector will rally next as VCs deploy capital from lockup expirations. ## Transcript Well, here we go again. The Iranians are denying that a deal is imminent. This is almost not a surprise that on Thursday, we're going to get the greatest strikes ever. We're going to obliterate the Iranians. And then of course we're actually not going to take Card Island. We're actually not going to fact, we're actually really close to signing a deal, which is exactly what we want to hear so we can pump SpaceX and make sure retail gets all in on that make sure retail gets all in on that Friday. Then of course, just 11 minutes ago, as we're here in this yeah, small little arena. here. What do we have? Oh, JK, no deal say the Iranians. In fact, the Ayatollahs indicated no plans to sign a deal. If anything, there were some provocations that pissed off the Iranians even more. For example, Israel today attacked Beirut yet again. Why? Well, because of Hezbollah, which of course then you got Gallibuff, one of the chief negotiators on the Iranian side, responding to it saying this is totally unprovoked. Which then of course some say this is exactly the Israelis trying to sabotage a deal. Others say no, they're just trying to defend themselves. And of there's a deal so the stock market can keep going up, but we just can't get that Strait of Hormuz opened even though Donald Trump said we were going to sign a deal on Sunday and Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Now, is it possible that this week when the G7 meets, we might actually be able to make something happen? Maybe, but honestly, between you and me, the market doesn't really care right now. Interest rates are knocking on the ceiling of all-time highs. Oil prices are bobbing in the 90s. And the market just cares about where this $75 billion is going to go that SpaceX just raised. And once you start getting lockups expiring, we're not so worried about SpaceX going down in value, although I do think that'll happen. What is actually much more interesting as we go through this gate of death over here. What's actually much more interesting is what happens when all the venture capitalists get their lockups so they can go invest in new deals. And what is that new sector going to be that rallies? That's what we're paying attention to. So, make sure to subscribe and watch for more because I'm going to be studying it this critical week for seeing which sectors rally, if any. We'll see on this Iran news or lack thereof. And uh good luck out there. Stay safe. And as usual, what you looking at, buddy? >> Yeah. >> Crazy, huh? Look at the wall of that. It kind of looks dungeon-esque, how spiky it is. It's like a BDSM room or >> Yeah? >> Pay tolls. >> Pay tolls. >> It's a toll.