---
title: 'buy.'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=4-vUYqlX6v4'
video_id: '4-vUYqlX6v4'
date: 2026-09-29
duration_sec: 1263
channel: 'Meet Kevin'
---

# buy.

> Source: [buy.](https://youtube.com/watch?v=4-vUYqlX6v4)

## Summary

The video presents a bullish case for buying the current market dip, arguing that peak fear is behind us and that a potential Iran deal could trigger a rally to new all-time highs. The author cites Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson to support the mid-cycle thesis and highlights AI adoption as a key differentiator.

### Key Points

- **Market Fear Indicators at Extremes** [00:00] — The 10-year treasury yield is at 5.27%, and the 10-2 spread has shot up, but the author argues that positioning is 'juicy' with extreme fear levels in breadth, put/call ratios, and new highs/lows.
- **Peak Fear is Behind Us** [00:50] — The author claims the market has already passed peak fear, citing that the NASDAQ 100 has re-rated up substantially since two weeks ago when it was bouncing off the 715 line.
- **Mike Wilson's Mid-Cycle Thesis** [03:00] — Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson describes the current market as a 'classic mid-cycle transition,' which aligns with the author's view that we're not near the end of the cycle.
- **AI Bubble Canaries** [03:41] — The author identifies Anthropic's and OpenAI's revenue growth after their IPOs as key 'canaries in the coal mine' for the AI bubble, suggesting problems are at least six to twelve months away.
- **Iran Deal as a Catalyst** [04:22] — The author is highly confident (95%+) that an Iran deal will come through, citing optimistic comments from Trump, sanctions relief, and Iran's willingness to allow weapons inspectors back.
- **Fed Rate Hike Expectations** [05:34] — Mike Wilson argues the Fed is only modestly behind the curve, and the market is pricing in 4.8 to 5 rate hikes between now and September next year, which the author thinks is too many.
- **Second-Round Effects and Central Banks** [06:58] — The Bank of England's recent statement suggests the burden of proof for additional tightening should rest on evidence that second-round effects are gaining traction, which the author believes the Fed will follow.
- **Valuations and Earnings** [08:16] — S&P 500 multiples are back near 19, close to March lows, while EPS growth remains strong in the mid-teens, suggesting the market has already priced in known risks.
- **Large Cap Quality Picks** [10:26] — The author recommends large-cap quality names like NVIDIA, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Netflix, and notes that AI adoption is starting to show up in fundamentals.
- **AI Not Priced In** [11:30] — Mike Wilson argues that analyst earnings estimates are not yet pricing in AI productivity, which should make stocks look even cheaper than they appear.
- **Mid-Cycle Winners** [12:34] — Mike Wilson argues that quality begins to lead in mid-cycle, and lists names like American Tower, Centerpoint Energy, Delta Airlines, Northrop Grumman, Atlassian, Target, and Walmart.
- **Yield Curve Concerns** [14:32] — The author notes that treasury yields over 4.5% create a tougher time for stocks, and the recent rate of change in yields is 'highly unsustainable' and likely to break.
- **AI Core Thesis Outperforms** [17:51] — Companies where AI is core to their thesis have outperformed those where it's just 'sufficient' by 107%, according to Mike Wilson.
- **Bullish Price Target** [19:57] — The author predicts the NASDAQ 100 will break $800 by Black Friday, calling for an 8.5% gain by the end of the year, and believes it will destroy Michael Burry's short position.

### Conclusion

The market has likely passed peak fear, and a potential Iran deal could trigger a rally to new all-time highs, making the current dip a strategic buying opportunity.

## Transcript

This might be the last chance to buy the dip, if they believe me. Now, I know, it sounds crazy. The 10-year treasury yield keeps going up. It's at 5.27.
I know, the 10-2 spread just shot up. Still not at shock territory, but it just shot up. But we are at some juicy positioning right now. Stock price breached.
So the number of stocks going down versus up, or up versus down, is at extreme fear levels. In other words, way more are going down than are going up. Put call ratios at fear levels, stock price strength,
in other words, the ratio of new 52-week highs versus lows, extreme fear. Like, we are off the chart on both of these. And this rollover started at Jackson Hole.
And my opinion is, we are at the last opportunity to take advantage of the fear that's in market. I actually think we already are past peak fear. Two weeks ago, I stated that the market was at peak fear.
Two weeks ago, the NASDAQ 100 was at $699, and it was bouncing off the 715 line. We were bouncing around over here, and I made multiple videos about buy, this is peak fear,
the worst is now behind us, it gets better from here. now obviously there has been volatility over the last two days but as you can see we have clearly
re-rated up substantially and as back 100 on the qqq level it's an etf uh is 20 points higher now than where we were there that's on the index level so we've clearly gotten away from peak
fear zone over here i believe and i'm having the balls to put my money where my mouth isn't actually say it, and keep in mind, like, my YouTube videos stay up, my bad calls are up,
my good calls are up, I have no fear of being embarrassed, but I will tell you how I feel, there are literally, just so you know, YouTube channels out there, like, I know they're, I don't, I'm not gonna mention any names, but they're like some tax people, for example, if you look on
Social Blaze, you'd actually see every week, they'll have like, minus 400,000 views, minus 400,000 views, because at the end of the week, they just go through, and then they look like 90 days back, and they just start deleting videos, because they want, like, no historical
liability, and I'm like, Pansy! That's their thing. I'm not naming names, I'm just saying. Like, I have the balls to make this call, but it's not just me. I found a friend. I found a friend at Morgan Stanley, and his name is Michael Wilson.
You might remember good old Mike Wilson. We used to make fun of this guy for being a bear. Now, we like him because he sees right into my confirmation bias.
Okay, I'm going to be clear here. What he says is, in my opinion, very useful, and we should look at it. But, in fairness, there's very little we disagree with here.
I am just being upfront about that. I always like to be upfront about my biases. But take a look at this. Mike Wilson says, this is a classic mid-cycle transition. Now, this is interesting, because about a week ago, we had one person, I think it was Barkin, Barkin or Waller, I can't remember who it was, from the Federal Reserve who said, we are in a mid-cycle, 1995-style era for the Federal Reserve, where we do a mid-cycle adjustment, where we raise rates a little bit because the economy is doing really well.
I agree with that. I think in the near term and the medium term, we're good right now. Can things roll over? Absolutely. But is this AI bubble really about to burst?
Not yet. The canaries of the coal mine that you want to watch for are anthropics revenue growth after IPO. Same for opening eyes. Let both of them IPO, and then you need to see their revenue growth Q3, Q4 after the IPO.
That's at least a year away. And as long as the jobs market doesn't roll over between then and now, or the, you know, scale-outs, like the M-scale or the Corwys go bankrupt, as long as those guys don't go bankrupt,
we're still six to 12 months away from problems in this economy. I still think there's time. That's why in that short to medium term, I'm really bullish. I also mean, Donald Trump even just this morning said, we're going to make a deal. He had some optimistic comments about Iran.
You get more optimistic comments about Iran if you look at Al Jazeera, his commentary about how Jaden Janz says, hey, we need confidence. We're going to make a deal with the Iranians. It sounds like we're going to be able to make something work.
You've got actually sanctions relief that Donald Trump first called fake news that just came out, that the United States has provided sanctions relief for flights between Iran and Iraq. In addition to the openness and willingness of Iran to allow weapons inspectors back into their country
once they make a deal with the United States on the blockade, sanctions relief, and the seize the rainy money, we are leading to so much more clarity on this deal that's building and brewing in the background.
It is just a matter of time before this deal comes through. It is going to come through. I'm very confident of that. 95 plus you could say But anyway put all that together it makes sense why the markets aren even higher People say like oh but we so close to all highs It doesn matter
The markets would be way higher than all-time highs if it weren't for this Iran drama. But take a look at this. So Mike Wilson says this is classic mid-cycle is what we're in right now. So we're not near the end yet.
He says that the Fed is only modestly behind the curve. And there are a lot of people that make the argument that the Federal Reserve is, you know, really going to have to come out with these five rate hikes
between now and September of next year. And in fairness, that's because that's what the market is pricing in. The market is pricing in that we're going to have 4.8 to 5 rate hikes between the one we just got, September 16th, and September of next year.
That's what the market's pricing in right now. That's not ideal. Now, if we actually go take a peek and see, hey, you know, what do prediction markets say about this? Well, you know, prediction markets, the Federal Reserve, let's go take a look.
Rate hikes, we'll jump on over to Calci. They are a sponsor of the channel. But you could jump into this one. This one has low volume. So the low volume one's a little bit more fluctuating, I should say.
But number of rate hikes this year, I like this one. there is only a 9% chance we get exactly one rate hike per calci's betting market here. I actually think there's a greater chance of that. I actually think that if we make a deal with Iran, that could be exactly what happens.
We only get one rate hike. And Mike Wilson here telling us, hey, Fed might not be behind the curve that much at all, is exactly what could suggest that the Fed could wait a little bit.
In fact, we literally just had the Bank of England come out and say, quote, the burden this was just minutes ago the burden of proof for additional tightening should rest on evidence that second round effects are actually gaining traction so in English
let me explain that so that way we can continue to understand this with Mike Wilson here when they talk about second round effects what they're talking about is the effect of oil in the meantime I put this little QR code on screen while I explain
this that's our sponsor Calci you get $25 when you sign up and make your first trade what this means with second round effects is basically hey Oil prices are up. And when oil prices go up, eventually, it takes about six months,
it takes about six months and then oil prices show up in core goods and core services because it costs more money to send your service repair person for Comcast to install your internet or fix your internet.
It costs more money to collect your trash, whatever. Those are the second round effects of inflation. And the Bank of England is like, look, we've raced, raced, but maybe we don't have to keep pushing here. Like, maybe we need proof that those second-order issues are actually expanding.
I think the Federal Reserve is going to take a very similar path as Mr. Andrew Bailey, because a lot of these folks coordinate with each other. But going to Mike Wilson over here, we can see that S&P 500 multiples are back near 19,
which is close to March lows. Consistent with our mid-cycle framework, EPS growth remains strong and in the mid-teens. the valuation compression suggests that equity markets are already aware of the risks.
Higher energy prices, a tighter Fed, and continued geopolitical instability in the field. In other words, Mike Wilson is telling you, guys, the market's already aware of the boopy-doopy that's going on.
The market's already aware of the crap that's going on in the bond market. The market's already aware of the crap that's going on in the oil market, grants that, you know, over $104 a barrel. Markets are already aware that the Fed is going to hike.
We've already priced in five rate hikes. And yet, despite that, we have earnings that is crushing it. For S&P 500 earnings to be in the mid-teens is fantastic.
And valuation multiples are actually back to the lows we saw in March, which indicates once we get over some of these issues, specifically Iran, this market is going to go zooming. And nobody freaking wants to hear it.
But that's why I'm so bullish on buying the dip between now and the future. So what do we have here? Breast deterioration needs to be reconciled.
Market breast improved through most of the summer, even as energy prices and yields rose. The recent narrowing of breasts, that's what we showed at the beginning here with the CNN greed and fear piece,
occurred after Jackson Hole as the market priced a more hawkish bed path. So in other words, as the Federal Reserve on J-Hole mentioned the word hike three times, I think intentionally,
the market's like, oh crap. And since Jackson Hole, the end of August, we have gone from pricing in like two rate hikes and then a rate cut. That's what we priced in before. Two hikes and then a cut.
So net-net one. We went from net-net one to net-net 4.8. That compresses multiples. so I totally agree with Mike Wilson here he argues
that the best names to own in this era are large cap quality now that could be whatever you call it Some names that I like for large cap quality I like NVIDIA
And I have exposure to these, so I just want to be clear about that. Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, NVIDIA. Netflix has been a dog. I think you can get it cheaply. I think Meta is really undervalued. Apple, I think the duo is going to sell out like crazy.
I'm still worried about the search of Google, because that's most of their income, not AI. You could even argue, especially as long as the canary of entropic doesn't roll over,
SpaceX, you could argue. You could make the argument for Eli Lilly. Oh, they're the S&P 500 of healthcare, in my opinion. Moderna is not a large-cap quality. So I'm not ignoring Moderna, because I really like Moderna,
but they are not large-cap quality. They are mid-cap risky. Anyway, all right. AI adoption is starting to show up in fundamentals. This is an interesting one. Mike Wilson, and I have not heard this one before,
but Mike Wilson basically says that earnings estimates from analysts are not yet pricing in artificial intelligence productivity. And that actually should make stocks look even cheaper today
than they actually deserve to look like. So, in other words, stocks are cheaper now than they appear. It's like the little warning sign in your mirror. Objects are closer than they appear. stocks are cheaper than they appear.
But anyway, the S&P 500 has made little headway since June. Early June was literally when we had the SpaceX sucketing, where they raised like $100 billion, and so did Google. That takes a lot of money out at the same time you got Jackson Hole, you got the
liquidation of Leo Fold. You know, you had some problems, right? And now you've obviously got to get through this wrong situation. So in other words, Mike Wilson argues we continue to disagree with the view
that the S&P 500 is just below all-time high. This is my confirmation bias, because I also agree that we would be much higher without these anchors. Then, they argue that a key signpost
indicating that we are going to transition from early to mid-cycle is that quality begins to lead. He says that early-cycle winners are semis and autos. So, I think hardware stocks and tax loss, for example,
or Ford or GM or whatever. Early-cycle winners. Mid-cycle winners, they argue, are quality. Quality stocks with robust earnings, essentially.
Okay? You could really argue whatever that is. The names that they argue for this are not the names that I would pick. But that's okay. I already gave you some of my names, but I'll give you some of theirs.
They argue American Tower for real estate. Centerpoint Energy. I think that's respectable an energy name, especially given the AI build-out, and I don't think we're at the end of the bubble yet. We're mid-cycle teams appropriate.
Delta Airlines. Northrop Grumman, Night Swift, EQT, Atlassian. I actually like this one. This is a good one. Team and software.
Definitely like this one. Target and Walmart. Target had its one from $80. We shouted this out in the course number live streams as being a steal with a 5% yield back at $80. But it's a bad off to the consumer.
And Walmart, I'm less interested in Walmart personally. But whatever, this is their opinion. Everybody can have their opinion. So I'm going to tell you where I agree or disagree. I think that's very important. So if we look over here, going back to this.
Okay, quality, leads, and mid-cycle. I think other names that I've mentioned yet, Broadcom, Marvell, NVIDIA, Those are still quality and even photonic beneficiaries. I think AMD's one a little bit too much,
and CPU play is a little overdone with agentic AI, but I'm talking too much about specific stocks here with Focus. They also argue that one of the other reasons we're seeing multiple compression in stocks right now, multiple compression, so valuation compression,
is because yields are over 4.5%. And anytime treasury yields go over 4.5%, you end up having a tougher time in the stock market. I think somebody's getting liquidated.
Like, this change right here is insane. So, like, the rate of change has been pretty stable. You can see from November to here, if you kind of draw, like, a line between these two.
Here, let's just do it. The rate of change is highly, highly unsustainable. And something's probably going to break on this, which short-term creates a little bit more fear, but long-term creates an opportunity.
So, this is your classic sort of rate of change that we've had in 2026. you know, mostly because of the war. Okay? That is a climb of yield that's not ideal,
but it is not this. I mean, this is almost vertical. Highly unsustainable. These are going to come plummeting down, I suspect, when we make a deal on our own. But something might break first.
Anyway, continuing on with the Mike Wilson piece, we see right here, breadth has started to deteriorate after Jackson Hole This suggests that the market is discounting those higher interest rates those full interest rates that we talked about They also argue that the bond market
has potentially moved to an overly hawkish posture in the near term, and that Chair Warsh is more in the monetary camp and believes that inflation is determined by money supply growth. In other words, we have a whole separate topic on this.
Basically, this idea that Warsh is anti-balance sheet. They think the Fed will eventually come to the rescue if we have a crisis, but that's less of an issue now. We're not in crisis mode, we're mid-cycle mode. Here, we have this discussion about how AI enablers
or companies that are really applying artificial intelligence, which, I mean, I know we are like crazy. This is where they talk about analyst expectations. At our startup, we are like crazy. But I thought this stat was really interesting.
Listen to this. Because, like, keep this in mind. Our startup, and I'm not trying to pitch anything, but I just like to share this because it's sort of where my point of view comes from. And I feel like the more transparent I am with where our point of view comes from,
the more it makes sense for you to think, okay, so where and why is Kevin putting his money where his mouth is, and why is his mouth where it is? So we find that what we can do with artificial intelligence is insane.
And we have a lot of compute. For startups, I think we're up there in the level of compute that we have. We have a lot of hardware running. and it's great because we can do so much especially with the open rate models for so cheaply
and it's really exciting because of what it's letting us build out and so I feel like we've gone from this company that we still do this we still buy real estate deals for a discount reg deals we call them and that's like the core of what we do
if we ever raise money in the future it's like 90% of our money is going into just buying those deals but the software component that we can build out with artificial intelligence provides value in areas
that other people aren't AI in real estate or otherwise. Man, we're so excited. So we're like all in on this AI thesis. We love what we're seeing. We're finding great results on this. But the reason I bring that up is because I think Mike Wilson is right when he says this.
Among enablers and adopters, companies where AI is, quote, core to thesis, have outperformed those where it is just deemed to be sufficient. By 107%. In other words, double.
So the performance of these companies is double. when AI becomes core to the company's thesis. I love that. I totally agree with that. Totally agree. And our core is still buying wedge deals in real estate,
but, like, with AI. This is great. So this gives us an idea of why Mike Wilson is basically bullish on the market. Now, he doesn't bluntly tell us that, hey,
everything's going to go to the moon when the Iran deal happens. We don't know when we're going to get an Iran deal, but it is my belief. and the longer it takes to get in a raw deal, the more nervous the market is going to be between here and there.
That is an unfortunate downside, because we don't know exactly when this is going to come, but we know we are off of peak fear levels right now when we look at the stock market. The stock market's already past peak fear.
Now, it's just a matter of actually getting a deal. And so that's where, you know, this morning, we're going through the Al Jazeera notes just to see what's going on. You've got a lot of talk about how Israel and Lebanon are getting looped in together to be a part of discussions here and how important that is.
You've got Donald Trump saying the Iran conflict will end very soon, that Iran is failing badly. We already talked about the sanctions waivers. We've got oil going through the Strait of Hormuz at, reportedly, 77% of pre-war levels.
That's very bullish. It means we're going in the right direction. Qatar is urging diplomacy. More mediation and talks are going on. Trump says, or J.D. Dance argues that, you know, the Iranians just need to behave and then we can go back to having an MOU.
I believe this. Maybe I shouldn't believe it the way I do, but I actually think we are going in the right direction. So when I put all of that together, I think that it's a mistake not to buy the dip right now.
I think this market will be at the craziest all-time highs by Black Friday. and we're going to break $800 on the triple Qs, which is a lot, okay? $800 on the triple Qs.
And it'll lift all shifts. $800 on the triple Qs. It'll destroy Michael Burry in its short position. That's 8.5% that I'm calling for in the NASDAQ 100 by the end of the year. And I just don't want people to go,
but Ted, why didn't you tell us? I do. I did here. I am right now. I know I could be wrong, But I'm just giving you all the reasons why I don't think I'm wrong.
But in the meantime... Here we go, cool! What is Ryan and Sam's... Ryan and Sam's... Here we go, cool! What is Ryan and Sam's... If you like that video, check this one out. I think you're gonna love it. I know you have advertising.
These things each other here, I feel like nobody else knows about it. We'll try a little advertising here in Seattle. Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. Kevin, pass that there. Finance Alarmist and YouTube up.
Me, Kevin, always great to get your take.