---
title: 'Stopped Out of Every Short on the Rip, but the Long Puts Still Won.'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=quRYFWTddyA'
video_id: 'quRYFWTddyA'
date: 2026-08-07
duration_sec: 741
---

# Stopped Out of Every Short on the Rip, but the Long Puts Still Won.

> Source: [Stopped Out of Every Short on the Rip, but the Long Puts Still Won.](https://youtube.com/watch?v=quRYFWTddyA)

## Summary

The video features a market analysis discussion where the speaker, Tim, shares his trading experience during a volatile market day, focusing on his short positions being stopped out during a market rally while his long-term put options remained profitable. He provides a detailed chart analysis of the ES (S&P 500 futures) and ENQ (Nasdaq futures), highlighting resistance levels and overhead supply, and introduces a new bearish position on China's FXI ETF.

### Key Points

- **Market Reversal and Trading Philosophy** [00:01] — Tim discusses the concept of 'should happen' vs 'will happen' in trading, using SpaceX's valuation as an example. He explains that while a stock might 'should' go down based on fundamentals, the actual market behavior can differ.
- **ENQ Rally and Shorting Strategy** [01:15] — Tim describes the massive overnight rally in South Korea and his expectation that the ENQ would peak and reverse. He planned to systematically short various symbols but was caught off guard by the speed of the market movement.
- **Stop-Losses and Options Portfolio** [02:26] — Tim explains that his short positions were stopped out due to rapid price movements, but his long-term options portfolio (long SPY puts, long QQQ puts, and six others) remained unaffected and profitable.
- **ES Chart Analysis** [04:08] — Tim shows the ES chart, noting that the market has been range-bound since May 13, with no clear direction. He mentions a failed breakout on Wednesday that was reversed, making it difficult for swing traders.
- **ENQ Chart and Overhead Supply** [05:24] — Tim highlights the ENQ chart, pointing out a large multi-month overhead supply zone that should act as resistance. He also notes a 'shooting star' candlestick pattern, indicating selling pressure.
- **Key Price Levels and Alerts** [08:13] — Tim mentions a specific price level of 28750 that did not trigger an alert, and discusses the importance of monitoring key levels for potential reversals.
- **China and FXI as New Target** [09:20] — Tim reveals his new bearish position on FXI (China ETF), holding long-dated March 2027 $37 puts. He draws a line in the sand based on a price gap, stating he will stick with the puts as long as the price stays below that level.
- **Market Opportunities and Conclusion** [11:14] — Tim reflects on the crazy market conditions, mentioning the Japanese yen's volatility, and emphasizes that new opportunities always arise. He concludes by urging viewers to look at FXI.

### Conclusion

Tim's trading day was marked by being stopped out of short positions during a sharp rally, but his long-term put options on major indices remained profitable. He identifies China's FXI as his new primary bearish target, based on technical resistance and overhead supply.

## Transcript

reversal, Tim. >> Uh, I am, but I'm not. And allow me to >> Uh, I am, but I'm not. And allow me to explain. Um, couple of things. So, I was all prepared to give a little speech this morning. Uh, which I'll give anyway
because I think it's an important u concept to get across, which is that, you know, as we look at charts, we have to consider what should happen and what will happen or what does happen. So for example um and this isn't necessarily
with charts it's just like judging any instrument. So SpaceX when SpaceX first came public and it climbed for a couple of days and it was worth um the three trillion I think the uh the sort of should happen is this should be a lot
lower because you know no company should be valued at like a 100x sales. I sold my tiny little startup a quarter century ago profit.net net for $8 million, which is about two times sales. It would have been nice to receive $400 million for my
tiny little company, but that would be silly. So, I got a sensible amount these silly. So, I got a sensible amount these days. Um, with SpaceX, it's like this is bananas. It should go down and it and it did. So, that those aligned this morning
the ENQ, because we had, you know, we had this like incredible rally through last night. Biggest jump in South Korea of all time. And my my feeling was that from a charting perspective, what should happen is that
It this is this is going to be the peak and it's going to reverse lower. What will happen remains to be seen. What I was prepared for this morning cuz I'm kind of made for days like this. I say it again. I am made for days like this.
What I was prepared to do was systematically, diligently, symbol by systematically, diligently, symbol by symbol short this and that and the other and so forth. I didn't have time cuz >> fast.
kind of a mellamore. I'd be like son of a bet, you know, everything's up and so like, okay, you get you're getting better prices and just kind of spend my day systematic systematically going through there. Instead, it was sort of
this. It was like the worst of both worlds. The first ding ding ding ding everything left and right cuz I set, you know, stop losses on my short positions are dynamite charts. I'm going to get
back in them at worse prices and greater risk. Yay." And so things moving that fast, it stinks. Um, but you know, it's not like I don't trade to be like, well, fingers [snorts] crossed I set stop prices. Now, the good news in all this
where I just have more of a long-term view is my options portfolio, which is just like long-term directional trades. And, you know, the fact is that, you And, you know, the fact is that, you know, long spy puts, long cube puts, and
six others. And I didn't touch that. And so, that was unbismerched by my clever little stop-loss prices, and it's doing just fine. Thanks for asking. But otherwise, it's been kind of this frantic like, [snorts] oh my god, I had
great positions on and now like I'll just pay more for them. So, yeah, it's mixed feelings. Let's just say that. >> I mean, it was a banner open market opened up big. I had some long delta. I actually closed out um a lot of
positions to your effect basically getting short some things in that in with the big moves. Marll, a couple of other names. So, it's been a great morning, Tim. It's been a great morning. Well, see you guys on Monday. [laughter]
But uh yeah, I mean the the open was basically the high on almost everything. Um and uh like I say, I mean, God bless the options portfolio because and I impression that don't set stock prices. Not at all. It's very rare that I regret
and resent the stops I put in. They're they're set based on sensible levels. opened strong and be up twice as much right now. That's why they're there. stuff and I'm glad because it kept going up. So it's okay. It happens. It's like,
you know, that's insurance. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's true. >> So uh having ranted uh I can show you a couple of charts a little bit kind of to show you kind of what my rationale was for for remaining uh uh bearish on
stuff. The the the weaker of these is the ES. I'm I'm I'm I'm less bearish on the likes of [snorts] the S&P. Um basically because we got really faked out. You know, we did on Wednesday breached it nicely.
Um and then undid that yesterday and then some and then today open star. But as we look here, you know, we're basically we've spent all this time fire. We're at the same price level now that we were in on May 13. Uh it's just
like relentless up down up down up. It just it can't make up its mind. Uh for nimble traders, day traders who are good and lucky, they've been doing great. But uh for any sort of swing trader like myself, it's just like it's a mess. So
I'm afraid that our breach there uh didn't mean a thing. We're above it >> Yeah. I mean, say for the two obviously big days, it's it's basically kind of been a chop, right? >> Ground hamburger. Absolutely. Um the one
I feel better about uh a lot better is the ENQ. Now um sharp viewers may notice that this little line has has gone up. And I I try to be a very honest chartist. I don't move things around. So it seems like I'm always right. What I
wanted [snorts] to do here was to show that, you know, as with the uh ES, the the dip below here was nice and all that, but I think the more important there's a couple of good things going for the one or two surviving bears out
there. Thing number one is that this is a good chunk of overhead supply. Unlike a good chunk of overhead supply. Unlike the ES, which is just a mess, this has a the ES, which is just a mess, this has a large multi-month substantial blob of
overhead supply to do what we saw this morning, which is like sell into strength. The other cool thing at the moment, and you know, we're only an hour into the trading day barely, is that we've got this cool little shooting star
attempt to go higher, but so far has been beaten back. Um, and so we've got a we've got a nice setup there. As I said, I already came into the day long cube puts, long spy puts, and they're Januaries. Uh there's lots of time on
them. Um but I did not expect to be looking at the ENQ 1 hour into day and see anything that looked red. Uh it's been quite a surprise, especially with what Amazon did last night. >> So, what are those bands? Curious.
>> Th those are those are just by those are set by me. What I'm trying to do there's they're they're simp they're just simple horizontal lines to try to lay down resistance. >> And in this case, they've been
resistance the whole way. And and by way of drawing these, it also helps define uh ranges of activity, which as precipitous as this fall has been, there's not long ranges, but this in particular was a was a pretty pretty
decently sustained one. This only lasted about a week. Um and then uh for the past six trading days, we've been persistently below um this latest one. persistently below um this latest one. And so given what I was concerned about,
what I was concerned about is what we experienced Wednesday and Thursday here and here would be repeated in the same way we had here, which is break, looks like it's going to really fall, nope, hard reversal, and then follow through,
follow through, that kind of thing. um that doesn't appear to be happening right now. Instead, we had an attempt to lift things higher, but just looking lift things higher, but just looking across the board um you know, ESN in QRT
all and BTC in particular, which I cannot seem to get right these days, by the way. Bitcoin is not my friend. Um everything's red. So, yeah. >> Yeah. I So, you have a you have uh stops. I have alerts. I I I like just to
kind of get alerted when certain things happen. And um one alert that did not go off was 28750. And so that's why you know I got my eyes on where you got that lower band because yeah it did not touch there. But it's interesting when we look
at this week looking at Monday which is the one area where it almost touched and well it did go through it. It traded Monday 28763. That was the high and then today 287 uh what is it 25 or something like that.
failure. >> Now I I've been so frenetic this morning. Uh and again not that it matters but is there particular reason sellers than buyers but you know is has there been some news of any kind or is
it just how about that? >> Uh I don't I don't think I've I mean we've been kind of doing the show here. I don't think I've seen any recent >> occupied [laughter] >> I yeah I think it just I think it's just
just just flows. >> Yeah. Well, the um the the one other item I wanted to show and I keep coming back to this is is China. Uh and you
back to this is is China. Uh and you know, I was a little early on SMH. Um but not terribly early. I I I started messing around with SMH a few weeks there were some losses along the way, but I finally got it right. Uh I got out
of it literally within hours of the bottom. Unfortunately, those hours were between, you know, one day and the next, so it's pretty substantial, but pretty much got the bottom. I'm feeling the same with FXI. I've been I've been
tilting at this windmill for the past couple of weeks. Has not gone well. But I look at this chart, and this is I'll just say it uh clearly, FXI is my new
SMH. This is my new uh I mean I've gone from from South Korea to China at this from from South Korea to China at this point in terms of um what I'm after and I I I've got longdated uh March 2027 $37 puts on this bad boy.
And uh China's been doing amazing lately. They've been just blasting lately. They've been just blasting higher. And uh my my line in the sand you estimate lines earlier is this one here which is just based on this
important price gap. So long as we do not cross above that uh I'm going to stick with these puts but like I said this is my new target. Um I think estimation is still great. I think SMH is plenty of more downside, but the the
uh my focus right now has really uh turned toward FXI, which is not very heavily discussed or traded, but just wanted to go on record with that. >> Tim has a new prey. Mike, >> yeah, that's a way to put Mike Worry,
[laughter] >> Yeah, I mean it's it's been uh it's been a crazy time over the last couple weeks here. uh and like the Japanese yen, what a candle you saw yesterday and intraday uh move today. So, yeah, these things
always going to be new opportunities and new sectors that you might not realize new sectors that you might not realize you're trading until you are. [laughter] >> Yeah. But yeah, like I said this morning in general, I just the market waits for
no man, but it would have been nice a little more moderate. I just like, oh well, it'll all work out. literally made breakfast on on our little 15-minute points in the NASDAQ. So, I like scrambled over to my platform to close
those butterflies. So, to your point, can't even eat. Can't even get >> Yeah. >> I think it's a mistake. Stick to stick >> I think it's a mistake. Stick to stick [laughter] to bourbon and chocolate.
[snorts] What else you got for us? Is that the >> Um, you know what? I'm I'm gonna end on China if that's all right. I I think that's the message I want to get across. Everybody take a peek at FXI. I uh we're
nothing nothing important to discuss, I don't think. >> Awesome. Well, appreciate your time, Tim.