[00:00] Let's start with the most basic of basics. Let's go to our old friend the spider, the first and the biggest ETF out there. And the past four days, as your prior guest was just mentioning, have been just this eye-popping rally.
[00:14] At the moment, we appear to be at the sort of like, you know, you throw the tennis ball in the air, and it's sort of at its apex, and you're just sort of watching it. We're just kind of hanging out there in the ionosphere. The next test is going to be, because this will sell off at some point, maybe today, maybe tomorrow,
[00:28] But the next important test is how does it behave when it approaches that rectangle again? Because that rectangle has represented months of just entrapment.
[00:40] And it's finally escaped. And the bull's job is to keep it out of there. It's got to find support there. And if it just sort of like droops back into that rectangle, that's the big alarm bell. But we're far, far away from that.
[00:53] I'm just saying when we ultimately do sell off today for whatever reason, that's the item to watch. Yeah, I think it'll be interesting to see where we go from here. But just like anything else, when you have a vertical bar to the upside,
[01:08] you should not be surprised to see a little relief selling at some point. Yeah, there's going to be some profit-taking. And actually, I made sort of a prediction that we would look at SpaceX first.
[01:21] And that did not materialize. But you know what? I'd like to because SpaceX, I think, demands a glance for a couple of reasons. We'll just hop over into that. Kind of good news, bad news.
[01:35] The good news is that it seems to have at least found a bottom for now. Their revenues came in much stronger than expected. Their losses came in more modest than expected. and to the low we saw right here on this bar, which got down to, what was the low, about 104.83.
[01:58] That hasn't been challenged. So we've made it safely to the other side of their first earnings announcement. The not-so-great news is that this is kind of a classic Seldenese kind of event because we had two nice fat green bars here,
[02:13] and when they did release the earnings yesterday in the moments that followed it continued to rally because it was a good report and then it just slumped lower So basically it gave up all of yesterday's gains.
[02:26] We're trading back where we were a couple of days ago. So we are down over $10, but as I say, for the longer term, maybe we've at least found a bottom for now. I guess what's getting press is that Elon, he likes to dream really, really, really big,
[02:42] and even though those dreams never fully materialized, they partly materialized, which is how he's gotten to where he's at today. So the latest thing is, like, we're going to have robots doing manufacturing on the moon. Like, cool, okay.
[02:55] But the investors today weren't too thrilled with that. So I think we can breathe a little cyber relief, at least on the other side of this report. Yeah. Sounds like you're taking mushrooms right before the call and saying something like that.
[03:08] Or ketamine. Yeah, that's a drug of choice. Right? He hit the old ketamine lounge before the call. But, yeah, we actually had an audio clip this morning about how they're specifically using NVIDIA.
[03:25] I think he's had NVIDIA like 10 times in a 15-second segment. NVIDIA is up 4% today, which is an interesting turn of events because I did not have that on my bingo card. No, NVIDIA's been a real, you know, kind of underperformer relative to the superstars in semiconductor electricity this year,
[03:44] and this has been a nice boost for it. I mean, even Elon described his idea as a little nuts, I think was the word he used. But that's a perfect segue, what you mentioned with NVIDIA, because the other big range yesterday, of course, was AMD.
[04:02] and they are taking a tumble, which is unusual in the sim right space these days. But from a charting perspective, I mean, I've been so disheartened by the breakouts we've been seeing
[04:14] and the ruined patterns. It's kind of nice to see for a change we're behaving ourselves in this. This is still range bound. We're right smack dab in the middle of the range. We reversed away from yesterday's strength.
[04:26] and this is still a potentially bearish setup because semiconductors are everything going for them these days and we still hammering out what might be if we get below the slow a very substantial topping pattern
[04:41] But, yeah, that kind of puts the – until I think it's exactly four weeks from today, in four weeks from today after the close is the NVIDIA report.
[04:53] Until then, it's kind of tumbleweeds going around as far as earnings. Yeah, we've got a bunch of earnings. this week, but they're all obviously lesser known products compared to the likes of Nvidia.
[05:07] But yeah, AMD, I mean, AMD down today is right in line with the narrative of if you triple your CapEx, you are going to see a softer stock price when they open the next day.
[05:20] Like that's been the story. And it's really permeated through a lot of those companies. So they got to make up for it. And the CapEx from SpaceX was about them too because even though the revenue was stronger
[05:32] and the losses weren't as severe, the CapEx was way higher than they thought because AI is expensive to pay for. Yep. I'm going to semi-correct myself on the earnings thing
[05:46] because there's one kind of interesting one this afternoon coming out, which is Western Digital. So the chart itself isn't, like, super interesting, except when we do back up here over the long haul,
[05:58] it has been since the Liberation Day bottom here, just the sensation. We've moved on this from around $30 to about $800. But then the storage stocks did start to break down.
[06:11] The shorter-term trend line on this, which is our other springtime low, we had one last year and one this year, We broke that a while back, and it looks very subdued here, although the nominal range is pretty big, about $80 or so.
[06:27] But WBC Western Digital is reporting after the close. I don't have a position on it, but I would lean kind of bearish on this.
[06:39] I don't know if you fellows are watching this or have any feelings about WBC. I mean, honestly, it all boils down. I have some sort of defined risk positions and not in WDC I have it in Sandoz which also has earnings today But I mean to your point I mean they all similar right WDC Sandisk all of them
[06:58] And so it's kind of boiled down to free cash flows, right? I mean, that's been the free cash flows and CapEx. And how are they not spending on AI and how are they not losing money on doing that right now?
[07:10] So I'd be shocked if they went up. Well, I mean, even though you're not in WDC directly, you kind of might as well be because it'll definitely inform what happens to S&DK for sure,
[07:23] especially if it's an outsized move. Let's see if there's something. You know what? Here's my fair well chart for the day, just something to keep an eye on. Metals have been very strong, just like all other assets recently.
[07:35] I would point out, if anyone's kind of itching for a bearish metals trade, you could do worse than this one. This is XME. This is the metals and mining. And what's intriguing me about this is this big price gap that we're getting kind of close to.
[07:49] And so we've had some big lunges higher. I would say the closer we get to CMNF at price gap, the more appealing this gets on a risk-reward ratio. Because longer term, the chart has broken down.
[08:01] And very long term, the ratio chart of XME versus GDX is very bearish. So if one were inclined to want to be bearish for miners, I think you'd be much better off with XME as opposed to GDX.
[08:15] Yeah, it's been a wild move in the precious metals today. They've led the charge to the upside with silver and gold. Gold's actually caught up, too. Gold's up 3.5%. Now, when we first checked, it was only up like 2.5%.
[08:27] So it's a day for the precious metals, indeed. Well, yeah, let's get this Iran news out of the way. Can someone announce something? Because this is just a fog that I really want to lift. I don't know. According to the crude oil markets, the back radiation is gone,
[08:41] and the back ones are below 70 now. There's four of them, but they're below 70 now. So I think the writing is on the wall. Hopefully we can get on the other side of it. Yeah, but the real thing is we've got to wait another two or three days
[08:54] for gas to go down some. I know. I mean, I know if I go down some, it's like, yeah, we can do that. Well, Tim, appreciate you. We'll see you a little later. All right.
[09:06] Thank you.