---
title: 'MLB Player Prop Markets Ranked Worst to Best'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=N4-M19ErOj4'
video_id: 'N4-M19ErOj4'
date: 2026-08-19
duration_sec: 588
channel: 'OddsJam: Sports Betting, Free Picks & Best Bets'
---

# MLB Player Prop Markets Ranked Worst to Best

> Source: [MLB Player Prop Markets Ranked Worst to Best](https://youtube.com/watch?v=N4-M19ErOj4)

## Summary

This video ranks the five most popular MLB player prop markets from worst to best, based on the creator's personal betting experience and use of Odds Jam's plus EV tool. The creator shares which markets destroyed their bankroll and which ones were profitable, offering specific strategies and filters for each.

### Key Points

- **Ranking the Markets** [00:14] — The video ranks five popular MLB player prop markets from worst to best, based on the creator's betting experience.
- **Worst Market: Pitcher Outs** [00:28] — Pitcher outs is ranked dead last because top-down betting isn't as effective without deep knowledge of the pitcher, team, and manager's tendencies. Lines are typically set between 15.5 and 17.5 outs, and success depends on understanding pitch counts and manager decisions.
- **Second Worst: Specific Batter Props** [02:10] — Player singles and player doubles were a disaster. These markets have lower payouts and are sharp at sportsbooks like FanDuel, making them a disadvantage for bettors.
- **Middle Ground: Pitcher Hits Allowed** [03:07] — This market can be profitable if you focus on weather and matchups. Betting overs on pitchers at Coors Field (e.g., vs. the Dodgers) worked well, while unders were a gold mine in April due to shorter pitch counts and cold weather.
- **Profitable: Pitcher Strikeouts** [04:31] — Pitcher strikeouts was a lucrative market, especially in April. The creator made over $1,500 in April alone using a specific filter setup on Odds Jam: minimum -175 odds, maximum +130, and a 3% edge or higher, with Pinnacle and worst-case devig.
- **Best Market: Player Home Runs** [06:45] — Player home runs was the most profitable and volatile market. In April, the creator made $1,100 with a 94% ROI. The filter setup includes odds from +100 to +600, targeting the top 30 home run hitters, with a 3% EV edge or higher and Pinnacle additive devig.
- **Bonus Tip: Sharp Money Tool** [08:18] — The creator plans to use the sharp money tool to track large bets on player props, as sportsbooks don't take much money on these markets, making them susceptible to sharp action.

### Conclusion

The creator emphasizes learning from their mistakes: avoid pitcher outs and specific batter singles/doubles, focus on pitcher strikeouts and player home runs early in the season, and be aggressive from day one to maximize profits.

## Transcript

last season, but here's some things that I don't want you to see. I also lost should have completely avoided. In this video, I'm ranking the five most popular
MLB player prop markets that I bet on from worst to best. And I'm going to my bankroll so that you can learn from my mistakes. The truth is, if I would have just avoided two of these markets, my profits would have been significantly
higher. But I learned the hard way of which markets are traps and which ones are gold mines. The first market that is the absolute worst that destroyed my bankroll is pitcher outs. And here's why it's ranked dead last. For all these
you, I utilize Odds Jam's plus EV tool, which is a top-down betting strategy where you're just simply receiving the best price in the market compared to all the other sportsbooks. But the problem with player pitcher outs is unless you
really understand the team, the pitcher, and the manager's tendencies, top-down betting isn't as relevant for this specific market. The lines for these markets are usually set between 15 and 1/2 to 17 and 1/2 outs. And so, that
when they're pitching, where their pitch count is the highest. And normally inning with the starter is a runner or two is going to get on base. And that's when understanding your manager's tendencies, if they'll let this pitcher
work through this dilemma, or if they're going to give him a quick hook, is really where a lot of these markets and these bets end up winning or losing. So, unless you really understand the pitcher that's on the mound and that manager,
then you really don't have as great of an edge as you think. I learned this the expensive way. Don't make the same mistakes that I did. Also understanding and what's happened recently with this team. Maybe this pitcher in the most
outings, they haven't had much rest. Maybe yesterday a lot of guys came out pitcher to go a lot longer in the game. All of these little nuances factor into this over/under on this market. So, I just completely avoid it now. There's
as much money as pitcher outs, and I thought betting on certain batter props would make life easier for me. And I was dead wrong. Specific batter markets like player singles or player doubles was an absolute disaster for me. This is
but the major difference is you're not getting paid out as much to bet on a Similar to pitchers, batters have different player profiles. And if you're you're already at a disadvantage. Now, you're going to find that FanDuel,
especially with top-down betting, shows you a lot of value when it comes to these markets. And what I learned the hard way is that I got absolutely smoked they're a very sharp sportsbook for these specific markets. There are some
easier hitter props to go after, and I would avoid player singles or player doubles altogether. Now, the next market is where things started to turn around a there's a key factor that most bettors completely ignore. Pitcher hits allowed
is a market that I do like to attack, but I specifically pay attention to the weather and the matchups. You can find success in this market if you focus on the right spots. So, for last year, basically betting on any Colorado
pitching at home in Coors Field, which is one of the most hitter-friendly environments, specifically made me when the LA Dodgers are in town. This is always a good time to bet the over on the hits allowed. But here's what saved
me from losing a ton of money, and that was early in the season in April. was early in the season in April. Betting on unders was a gold mine for this specific market. Number one, most of the pitchers out there have shorter
leashes. Their pitch count isn't as high because the season's getting going. the season the pitchers have the advantage over the hitters. The third advantage over the hitters. The third reason, it's cold in so many places in
America, especially up in the Northeast. New York, Boston, Philadelphia, all these cities in April typically have fairly cold weather, which is advantage a number of different ways that you can attack this market. Early in the season
in cold weather, look to bet the unders. When summertime hits and you see some of want to attack with some soft pitchers up on the bump, take those overs. Now, list is where things seriously started to turn around and I made crazy money.
And that's with pitcher strikeouts. As we mentioned early in the month of April, advantage pitchers. So, in April on pitcher strikeouts, I made over $1,500 in this month just on this market alone.
Here is my exact filter setup over at Odds Jam on their plus EV tool. We're going after a minimum minus 175 odds, maximum plus 130. Anything that has a 3%
edge or higher, that's what we're attacking. For my D vig settings, I love to use Pinnacle and I love to use worst case. This is the most conservative D vig method out of all the D vig methods. So, if you see an edge with worst case,
you know that there's a higher edge on any of these other D vig methods. Guys, if you want to try Odds Jam 1 week for free and save 35% off your first month after the 1 week trial ends, use code Billy35. It'll be linked in the
description below. Again, with all these markets that I shared with you, I am utilizing a top-down betting strategy. But what I learned throughout last year was that pitcher strikeouts is one of the most lucrative markets that you can
make a lot of money in. And out of all the markets in Major League Baseball, liquidity from the sportsbooks, meaning you can get the most amount of money down on this specific market compared to the rest. A few tips with this specific
market. Number one, be aggressive early in the season in April. While the pitch count might be lower for a lot of these pitchers, go after the top-tier strikeout aces. Like a Paul Skenes. He might only give you five innings on 80
or 85 pitches, but this guy can rack up eight or nine strikeouts with a breeze. Number two, focus on environments where it's outside and it's cold. New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Pittsburgh. These are all colder area cities. When the
game's outside, that's always advantage pitcher, not hitter. And finally, look Skenes, like a Zack Wheeler, like a Scubal, and look to ladder their overs on strikeouts. Looking to grab maybe Scubal's over eight and a half, nine and
a half, and 10 and a half because when they're on, they're definitely on. And lot of money on one pitcher having an incredible outing. But the number one market where I made the most profit and is by far the most volatile market out
of all player props is player home runs. Look at this. In the month of April, I Look at this. In the month of April, I made $1,100. That's a 94% ROI on my setup over here on Odds Jam so that you can copy and paste this because like
pitcher strikeouts, you want to hit the ground running hard and aggressive when the season opens up. Looking at a minimum of a plus 100 odds range to plus 600 is my sweet spot. If you want to drop this plus 600 down to a plus 400 or
plus 500, the idea here is that we're attacking the one through five hitters in the lineup. The guys that have the most power to hit the most home runs. Or look at it like the top 30 home run hitters in baseball. Next up, again,
we're going after anything that has a 3% EV edge or higher. With player home runs, you're going to see some 7, 8, 10% EV edge plays. Again, because these are long shot underdogs, you're going to see some very high EV edges. Next up, I love
to use Pinnacle and additive out of all the D vig methods for long shot underdogs, additive does the best job. Stick with this D vig method and you of these markets in baseball, but especially with player home runs, the
ballpark, the weather, the wind, all of these conditions in this environment is very critical to our success. And betting on player home runs, while it goes very well early in the season, as the weather starts to warm during the
summer, this is when my focus shifts more to home runs because that ball travels further. Now, a bonus tip, a little wrinkle for this baseball season. I'm going to be using the sharp money tool a lot when it comes to these player
props. In general, the sportsbooks don't take a lot of money on player props. So, Cunningham, if I'm a professional better or I'm in a betting group, someone's put or I'm in a betting group, someone's put down $4,000 on his player blocks. Well,
for player hits allowed or player strikeouts or total bases, these are aren't going to take a lot of money. And so, looking at the exchanges like No Vig groups are putting down thousands of dollars on these markets for player
going to be in my repertoire all season long where I'm going to be tracking a ton of bets. So, there you have it. Learn from my expensive mistakes. Avoid pitcher outs. Avoid those specific batter singles and doubles over/unders.
with the matchups, player strikeouts, and player home runs early in the that I shared, you're going to find a ton of success. If I would have known last season, my profits would have been much higher. Don't make the same
with a lot of beginning bettors is that they just want to tread softly when the that's the exact opposite. You want to be very aggressive from day one. Now, outside of player props, there are a lot of derivative markets that I love to
wager on with Major League Baseball. And this video coming up on your screen is going to walk you through everything that I utilize to make consistent profits betting those markets. Click this video on the screen that's going to
sportsbooks, the entire strategy of how I love to attack these derivative markets so that you can start making money on opening day.