---
title: 'Bond COLLAPSE & Trump-Iran News JUST OUT'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=SmCuZPNliCk'
video_id: 'SmCuZPNliCk'
date: 2026-09-27
duration_sec: 832
channel: 'Meet Kevin'
---

# Bond COLLAPSE & Trump-Iran News JUST OUT

> Source: [Bond COLLAPSE & Trump-Iran News JUST OUT](https://youtube.com/watch?v=SmCuZPNliCk)

## Summary

The video discusses the ongoing US-Iran nuclear deal negotiations, analyzing recent statements from Trump and the Iranian president, and examines the bond market's surging yields and their historical implications for stocks. The host provides a nuanced view, suggesting that despite negative sentiment, there are signs of progress in the Iran talks.

### Key Points

- **Trump's Iran Deal Comments** [00:00] — Trump tells reporters that talks with Iran are still ongoing, despite earlier saying the deal was off. He expects more talks this week, indicating a desire to make a deal before the election.
- **UN General Assembly Context** [01:10] — The UN General Assembly meeting ends Monday evening, but mediators may stay in New York for continued discussions. Xi Jinping did not attend, which was noted by the media.
- **Key Issues in Iran Talks** [02:06] — Iran demands sanctions relief, return of seized money, and an end to the blockade. Trump says it's not the deal he wants, but he's open to negotiations.
- **Trump's Negotiation Stance** [03:18] — Trump suggests the current deal framework is similar to what was agreed a year ago, but now he wants more compensation due to Iran's weakened position from the blockade.
- **Iran Open to IAEA Inspections** [07:03] — Iran's president says they are open to allowing IAEA weapons inspectors back under formal negotiations. The IAEA responds that they can ramp up inspections quickly.
- **Iranian Drone Capture Claim** [08:50] — Rumors of Iran capturing a US underwater UAV are dismissed by CENTCOM as false. The host expresses skepticism about CENTCOM's statements based on past experiences.
- **Oil Exports and Qatari Mediation** [10:12] — US military facilitates over 20 million barrels of oil daily from the Strait of Hormuz. Qatari mediators continue shuttle diplomacy, meeting with the Iranian president on Thursday.
- **Bond Market and Stock Market History** [10:53] — Historically, when bond yields surge rapidly, something breaks (e.g., SVB, Black Monday). However, the WSJ notes that in 2016, a bond sell-off aligned with stocks going up.
- **Host's Market Outlook** [12:15] — The host believes someone is getting liquidated in the bond market, but the more pressing issue is the Iran deal. He sees signs of progress and expects the market to close the gap to all-time highs.

### Conclusion

The host remains cautiously optimistic about the Iran deal, seeing more puzzle pieces coming together, and believes the market will eventually recover, closing the gap to all-time highs once geopolitical tensions ease.

## Transcript

As if right on schedule, Donald Trump is officially on the phone with reporters talking about how, don't worry, deal talks with Iran are still going on, even though Friday night after the market closed, I told everybody the deal was off, it's over.
Of course, you know, futures open in about six hours, and you don't want a blast Monday stock market crash, so you know, you gotta smooth it over with some phone calls to reporters in the six hours before.
But anyway, with that, let's go into exactly what's going on, just to prep you for Sunday so you can get back to actually enjoying your weekend. But we're also going to talk about the bond market tumult and liquidation fears.
Has there been a time in history where the bond market yields rising like this have actually led to a good outcome? Well, we'll break that down in this, because something usually ends up going wrong.
Let's talk about it, but let's get out of the way this Axios piece right here first. So after nixing the Iran proposal, Trump tells Axios he expects talks this week. Remember that the United Nations General Assembly meeting isn't technically over until Monday evening.
And even then, it's possible that mediators may still stay in the New York area and continue discussions. But the actual event ends tomorrow. So it's still going on. A lot of people think, ah, UN's over. You know, Xi Jinping also took a lot of attention last week.
You might not recognize, but we need to put... I mean, Xi Jinping didn't actually go to the United Nations General Assembly. It was sort of a little bit of a thorn to the media. It's like, what? You're here. You're so close. You have your own Boeing 747.
Like, you can hop over it. It's not that hard. You're not going to go to the U.N. Different topic, you know. People kind of have this impression that the U.N. is only there for the U.S. and the West. And so that's why you get some of these snubbings sometimes.
But anyway, Axios says here, one, is that they were on the phone with Donald Trump this morning and that Donald Trump expects negotiators to engage in more talks with Iran this week as Qatar and other regional mediators are trying to revive negotiations.
The two sides were far apart on key issues. What was very annoying here was when you actually looked at the far apart. This really just referred to the prior rejection piece where we talked about how Iran has these demands that they want sanctions released,
relief, they want their seized money back, and they want the blockade to end. We've already gone through that, so there was really no news there on what key issues they're far apart on. But you get a little bit of a hint from Donald Trump. Donald Trump says, I expect
more talks with Iran this week. They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal I want to make. Which is interesting, because it does indicate that Donald Trump clearly is wanting to make a deal. This is obvious. We already expect that, because if Donald Trump
does not make any deal with Iran before the election, we expect Republicans are going to get slaughtered in the election, and everybody will blame Trump for that. And if too many Democrats win, you end up getting a supermajority that can essentially overrule even presidential vetoes.
And that basically strips Trump of all of his power, and that's the last thing he wants. So the last thing he wants is this war to get worse before now and then. The next thing is we expect that when Donald Trump says the following here,
It's actually a good sign. Also if Trump doesn make a deal we kind of expect the economy to collapse which would be bad So there are plenty of reasons to make a deal here But anyway he says it is what we may have agreed to a year ago They overplayed their hand
Now, this is actually really interesting, because what Trump is saying is, hey, that's actually a pretty good framework of a deal a year ago, but, you know, we're going to need a little bit more now, because now you guys are suffering through our naval blockade,
are air blockade effectively by sanctioning airports and gas facilities that fuel Iranian jets. UAE has canceled flights. Other countries are at risk of sanctions, or companies are at risk of sanctions
if they support Iranian flights, so Iranian flights have panned. And then in addition to that, you've got the border issues with countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan, which is crazy because Afghanistan is run by the Taliban, but even them, they're like, I don't know, man, we are like, I'll cross the border.
Maybe we need some bigger brides here because, you know, we face some sanctions risk. I'm obviously oversimplifying, but that is what's going on, and we've been covering this, and it's wild. So Donald Trump is essentially saying, yeah, you know, that's actually not a bad deal from last year's point of view,
but now it's going to need a little bit more compensation. It's almost sort of like, you know, imagine somebody in Florida is trying to sell a house, and we just went to Florida. Well, he was a team member of mine.
We went to Florida. Great job, by the way. with what we found out on the ground in Florida. I really need to make a separate video on this. But there are parts of Florida that are really struggling in terms of home prices.
But it's sort of like, imagine somebody has a house for sale, and it's listed at $500,000, and you write an offer at $400,000. And the seller's like, oh, $100,000 under? F you, that's a scam.
A year later, the seller's at $399,000. And they're like, hey man, is your $400,000 offer still good? and then you're like, nah man, now it's $350 or $400.
Florida is having some problems. But it's an overbuilt area. When you invest in real estate, you have to know that. That's the most important thing that, in my opinion, you should do when you do due diligence on real estate
is if you go buy real estate, you want to buy real estate where the cities are a nightmare to permit building. And then if you ever try to get permits and they deny you, You should write them a thank you card.
You should not take out the bat to be angry. You should go, my golly, thank you for keeping homes unaffordable for everybody else. Because it's just increasing my equity.
That's obviously evil, but as an investor, it is a hedge, right? And so that is why you can actually get affordable homes and places where they build. Imagine that. If you increase supply, prices go down.
No. people have such a hard time realizing that they're like oh no the developers in New York are just greedy no you don't let us build vertically in Brooklyn in more than four units
before punishing us so why would we build more units it's insane sorry so my point of this is negotiation wise I actually see this as a good thing and I know I've just run on this little real estate tangent
but I think it's a sign that if that developer or that home investor is saying, yeah, well, I'll pay you $3.50 now. It's a sign that you're not going, F off, I'm never doing a deal with you again. It's just a sign that, hey, I'm going to need a little
bit more now It not saying F off And that exactly the message Donald Trump is trying to convey here Mostly to suggest hey we can still do a deal Now another thing that interesting about Iran is we actually had this morning that
there was talk about Iran, and this is from news coming from the president of Iran, that Iran is open to allowing UN
weapons inspectors from the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, back into the country under formal negotiations. So you actually have Donald Trump kind of softening, and of course it's a soft taco, okay?
We're going for not a corn taco today, we're going for the wheat taco, okay? Wheat, white, taco. That's not redundant, because there's whole wheat, and it'd be brown. Point is, it's soft. That's just like a squirrel problem.
I think it's like autism or some other problem. But anyway, the IAEA is critical here, because now they're coming out, responding to the president of Iran, saying, hey, you know, if you guys are good with us doing inspections,
we can actually ramp up these inspections pretty quickly. Like, there won't be a big delay. Like, we'll get on the first sanctioned Iranian flight tomorrow and show up. So that's good because now you have the head of Iran going,
yeah, you know, we'll open up the cheeks again. And the IAEA going, yeah, we'll go deep as soon as you want. We're ready. all of those things suggest the pieces of the puzzle are coming together.
I think overall market sentiment and people sentiment is very negative on this because we've seen so many deals fall apart. But I'm seeing more puzzle pieces come together, whereas previously they were really scattered,
and it's like, really, this shell of a deal is supposed to hold? Yeah, right. This is starting to look better. There was also some news this morning about, or some rumor mill on X about the Iranians capturing an underwater US UAV,
and they have this sort of imagery here with some loud, annoying music about how they've captured this. CENTCOM, and they've done this before, CENTCOM has come out and said, no, this is utterly false.
We have control of all of our drone assets. The Iranians are clearly desperate. Whatever. Like, I don't fully believe Centom when they say they aren't doing something, because they're really clever with their wording.
Like, back in May, when we started escorting ships at night to get through the Strait of Hormuz to get oil out, they're like, we're not providing security in the region at all. We're escorting no one. And then two months later, they're like, guys, we are so proud.
We have gotten over a billion barrels of oil out of the Middle East. without security, transport, and insurance bailout of ships in the Middle East. So, you know, you just have to take, like, I don't know,
I feel like sometimes the older you get, the more jaded you get. But then, you know, more and more it's kind of like, ah, see, see, we were right to be jaded. But anyway, so you got that on the drone.
You got the IAEA part. You've got this talk from Axios on Donald Trump, which I actually think is good. Donald Trump, the U.S. military is facing, or is facilitating a lot of oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz.
More than 20 million barrels. This is the daily figure. It was, Chris Wright previously said 17 million, now it's 20 million. And so it unclear if that sort of Donald Trump rounding or what it is But anyway behind the scenes U officials and two regional sources told Axios that Qatari mediators are continuing to shuttle diplomacy to try to reach a deal
On Thursday, the Qataris met in New York with the Iranian president to discuss the potential deal, which is conveniently right before all of a sudden the Iranian president's like, oh yeah, by the way, we're open to weapons inspectors again, like, please
stop hurting us. Anyway, the other thing that obviously is going on right now is the bond market, which is really interesting right here. Stocks are defying
surging bond yields. Here's what history says have in fact. So we went through this a couple days ago about how we talked about there's always a shock when yields rise this fast. Something always breaks. Silicon Valley Bank, the Black Monday market crash of 87, whatever.
There were 16 instances where bond yields have skyrocketed this much at this pace on a 10-year and something is always broken. That may be true. Again, we don't know what it is yet. But the Wall Street Journal has an interesting piece here about the longer
term, because even if a bank collapses, for example, the stock market can survive. And I don't want to look at this with rose-colored glasses here, but the Wall Street Journal says, hey, like, in the longer term, you can go either way here with the stock market,
which I know isn't very useful, but there's so much negativity that, oh, this means the stock market's only going to go down. They give examples here. In 1994, the bond market sell-off led to a stock sell-off with the S&P 500 dropping as much as 8% when they had
their sort of mid-cycle adjustment, which is exactly what I think Dallard mentioned this mid-cycle adjustment is now. And then, of course, the yield surged again in 99, and then you had the dot-com bubble. Those were all kind of bearish. You had the 2006 surge,
which that was bearish. But then in 2016, so those are three bearish examples, but in 2016, bond markets, the bond market sell-off actually aligned with stocks going up. So
in other words, I think the Wall Street Journal is saying even if we do end up having a little bit of a shock, the stock market could still go up. Personally to me, I don't really care about any of this crap. I do think somebody's getting liquidated in the bond market, and
we'll find out what that shock is. But I think what's more pressing here is this deal with Iran. And I know I feel like I'm like the Iran guy. I talk about this every day.
But it's also so important because if this goes bad, the economy collapses. Just start raising cash. But that's the opposite of what I'm seeing right now. I'm seeing more signs that this is
going in the right direction rather than the wrong direction. And I know that I get comments from people like, Big Kevin, the stuff that I did only 2% off all time highs. You know, whatever it is. I'll have to get a bid. And it's like, yeah.
So, it would be a lot higher if it weren't for this Elan crap and this Yule crap. It'd be even higher, that's the thing. So, it's sort of like, don't compare now to all-time high.
Compare now to where we would be if it weren't for Elan. And that gap right there is what I think is coming to a close. It's going to be delicious. Anyway. Dang, I didn't even have a sponsor or anything for this video.
That's all right. I love you all. Just subscribe. We'll see you in the next one. If you like that video, share this around. I think you're going to love it. I know I've advertised many things that you've told us here. I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll try a little advertising
and see how it goes. Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. Kevin, I need you to meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.