[00:01] obviously a disaster, right? We didn't even attempt to defend the 200 week. No buyers there at all. Straight off. Um the thing is with Bitcoin is that there is no short-term catalyst for it whatsoever. Maybe the Clarity Act, but
[00:13] probably not. Right? The money is elsewhere and it's chasing other things, which is totally fine. Um you know that buying around here is is great. But we are in a downtrend. Right? There is no like short-term catalyst and so
[00:28] collapses or capitulates and everything else. times now, it's not even interesting anymore, right? Oh, Bitcoin's in a bear market or again. You know? It's like been been through so many, but it's not
[00:41] like everything else is booming. The Nasdaq is down over the last month. Apple, Microsoft, gold, all down. Almost double figures, all of them, right? So, it's not like we're in a big bull market and for some reason Bitcoin,
[00:54] you know, it's just completely off. Off all-time highs, Nvidia 15%, gold was high. So, Bitcoin is kind of in the ballpark, right? It's it's not great performance. It's it's poor performance, but
[01:09] booming, right? SK Hynix and Samsung and Micron are booming, but the rest not so Look, let's call a spade a spade, right? This entire thing is a pig, an absolute pig. It's a monstrosity. The whole Trump
[01:25] thing, they've abandoned crypto and Bitcoin, right? Um maybe they're trying to play things cool while the Clarity Act passes, right? Um maybe they pick it up again near the midterms as, you know, trying to win votes. Um but they've not
[01:38] been good stewards so far, right? Because obviously what they did doesn't even know what Bitcoin is. His son is big into it and has financial interest in companies and we all know what happened there. You know, his son
[01:53] is friends with some Bitcoiners who got in, you know, gave money to the We're going to make money out of this. Pump it, pump it. And then Trump coin comes out. I mean, come on, man. Absolute joke, right? So,
[02:07] while the clarity act passes and then they can start to ramp it again. Who knows, right? But they're not talking about it. This entire thing has been absolutely awful. But
[02:19] is a very decent time to accumulate BTC. And, you know, right here, brilliant time. It's going to be a brilliant time here as well. It's just not going to go anywhere for a
[02:33] while cuz there's no narrative right now. Maybe clarity, maybe midterms. You're looking out, right? But it's not like everything else is booming and things are actually pretty soft right now.
[02:45] And so that's absolutely fine. If you do want to get in during a cheap time, uh trade on Bybit. If you do trade crypto Bitcoin, I think everything else link in the description. Make a deposit, they'll give you a bonus. Whatever you
[02:58] trade with. This is my chart of truth as I call it jokingly. I can't predict the future, but what I've done is taken the trend rate of Bitcoin and then put a growth rate on it. So, 40% ROI here, 30, 25.
[03:10] I think actually the real growth rate here was slightly higher than 40%. But this orange line is the mid trend. And then I've just put a red and a green then the very, very extreme is the blue here.
[03:24] So, what's happened in previous bull markets? See, we came up, times, but we had this red line of support. And then at the end of the bull market, people tried to buy it and it acted as resistance and we moved
[03:38] But in this bull market, we never really got above it, right? It was the selling got above it, right? It was the selling point three times and then that was it. So, for me, my plan is to not try and be too much of a hero, but basically buy
[03:50] anything under this red line. Now you're not getting the best returns possible if you want to dollar cost average, right? We can go into other be in a bull market as well at that point. Right, so you have to figure out
[04:04] else. But anything above this red line is way too overbought and you're just not getting good forward returns here. market, right, you're not getting good forward returns. Even if Bitcoin does
[04:19] okay and look you had I think it was like 48% growth rate here. You're just buying too expensive up here. Bitcoin never got there that that time. So where can we fall to? Well, this green line would be 52,000
[04:33] green line would be 52,000 and then 66% drawdown would be 41,000. a few times, but look, where do you make returns? This is without a doubt where you make good returns if you
[04:45] I do. So we are in a a phase where long-term investors are just going to start to say to themselves, whatever the fad is, we don't care. Right, this is the absolute buy zone.
[05:00] week. We may fall to these levels. right? You're not really caring is it going to be 58, 52? For me, these all these levels are just I'm just going to buy.
[05:14] the price too much. I'm not really that sensitive cuz I have a longer term time you know, that's what I'm looking at. Right, I'm looking at Bitcoin in 2034, 2035 being 5, 6, 700k somewhere around here. So, you know, I'm not really
[05:30] worried if I'm buying this level or here, but that we're definitely in a buy Um, but this is when few people buy because they're waiting, they're they think it's, you know, safer to buy, but to be honest, these are the places.
[05:44] I I really care what happens. It goes down another 20% It doesn't matter to me. Right, this level cuz what I'm doing is buying long-term. Forward returns are fantastic here. Unless you think the whole thing's going
[05:59] all of Satoshi's coins. That's going to happen someday. It's definitely going to happen someday. But it's going to be the US government who take the coins. the market, right? So they're going to be the US or China that hacks them and
[06:12] all. So we'll go down to this level or maybe this level when the coins move. Maybe it's now, maybe it's in six or seven years time and I'll blow up about by then anyway. And then
[06:25] it and it'll move higher again, right? It's just what happens. But to think that this is somehow going to stop because of AI or hot, it just doesn't matter. Real investors you you invest through all of
[06:39] horizon. Right now, decent price Bitcoin can get cheaper. I hope it does cuz I'm months. Most big stocks are down. I don't think it's a bull market for a lot of stocks. You got some things going up so that that the you know, the index is
[06:54] down. We're in this weird weird period, right? The war is kind of over at this point. Oil is gushing out of there. Right? And lagging data is showing the inflationary pressures of all of that. But over the
[07:08] next 6 months, I couldn't imagine that inflation keeps going higher disinflationary pressures here. Now, we're in a weird situation where hikes. And
[07:22] the Fed probably wants them to price it in like that because they want to get inflation lower um and expectations lower. That's fine. months actually goes higher and higher and higher when you've got an end to
[07:36] these hostilities. So the lagging data should start to soften. And guess what? inflation measure anyway. Now, what is preferred measure of inflation is a trimmed mean. Guess what color that is?
[07:50] lowest one. They're going to be changing how they measure inflation and it's going to underestimate further what real inflation is. This is the game. Right? He's He's a good talker, but at
[08:02] the end of the day, just like every Fed chair and everyone in those you know, boardrooms, they're bullshitters. Their entire job is to steal every single last piece of productivity that we create so that inflation is still positive, even
[08:16] produce and the unit cost of everything should come down. Their job is to make sure that it doesn't. And they're going to fake a trimmed PCE core trimmed mean, the lowest possible measure. If you don't need to eat food
[08:32] or use energy to stay alive, then there's no inflation, right? But if you do need to do those things, there's high inflation and it will always occur. And we're just in a transitionary period. And so, yeah, look, Bitcoin's
[08:44] off. It's going to be off. It's in a bear market. But you invest through those. Microsoft is off. Most of the mag seven, lag seven, right? So, you invest through these. You invest in great assets.
[08:56] Bitcoin is one. It'll come back. Um and everyone's capitulating and collapsing. you look forward a couple of years. But they're going to change the measure. Let's see how inflation goes. Chips and memory are very expensive, but
[09:11] computer, that's more expensive. You have a fixed wage. You spend more on the chase. The only thing that creates broad-based economic inflation is money printing. So, let's see what they do with that.
[09:24] But their goal is 2%. And if they change the measure right here, which is around 2%, maybe that's how they reach their goal, right? they're all bullshitters. We know that. Right? So, if we look at um
[09:39] expectations of passed through inflation, year, you just have to wait, right? to
[09:52] show that he's, you know, around this 2% target. He wants it to come a bit softer. The war's over, so it should come softer. his measure.
[10:04] there are certain things that are above this target, but we're looking forward, and they're going to disinflate over time with AI. So, we just have to wait, be patient, and realize what the game is, and it's just
[10:18] going to take a while to, you know, feed through. Um but a lot of these softening. Of course it's going to soften. The war's over. You just have to give these things time, right? And the market going up,
[10:31] you're going to what have to wait for people to get more confident. Okay, goes up, and then people start to chase it. So, if you're here now, I think it's the better time. If you do trade Bitcoin, crypto, TradFi assets, you can
[10:44] the link below, sign up, you can make a deposit, and they'll give you a deposit trade, you can just use use the platform for free as well. Link in description. watching, and I'll see you in the next one.