---
title: 'Plus One Recovery – The High-Volume Baccarat Strategy That Turns 50/50 into Consistent Profit'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=sxxjidhK7k8'
video_id: 'sxxjidhK7k8'
date: 2026-08-21
duration_sec: 1445
channel: 'BeatTheCasino'
---

# Plus One Recovery – The High-Volume Baccarat Strategy That Turns 50/50 into Consistent Profit

> Source: [Plus One Recovery – The High-Volume Baccarat Strategy That Turns 50/50 into Consistent Profit](https://youtube.com/watch?v=sxxjidhK7k8)

## Summary

The speaker, a seasoned baccarat player, shares his high-volume betting strategy called 'Plus One,' which he developed after analyzing 25,000 shoes and realizing his win-loss ratio was nearly 50/50. He explains how he manages his bankroll to turn this statistical equilibrium into consistent profit, emphasizing volume and disciplined money management over trying to beat the game.

### Key Points

- **Core Philosophy** [00:13] — The goal is to manage your bankroll, beat the game, get an edge, and book the profit. The speaker emphasizes getting in, getting out, and leaving with profit.
- **Data-Driven Approach** [00:25] — The speaker tracked 25,000 shoes, entered them into a database, and ran statistics. He made about 20,000 wagers a year, with win/loss differences in the hundreds of a percentage point, confirming a near 50/50 outcome.
- **System Development** [01:08] — Realizing he couldn't always win more than he lost, he developed a system to manage his bankroll to work with his style of play, rather than trying to beat the game.
- **Volume Strategy** [07:02] — The speaker focuses on volume, making thousands of bets a year. He expects to win half his hands and uses bankroll management to profit from that equilibrium.
- **Plus One Concept** [07:16] — The underlying concept is that he will eventually get back to 50/50, and once he does, he will have a profit based on managing his money throughout. He increases unit size over time and may cut numbers in half to manage risk.
- **High-Volume Play** [09:48] — The speaker makes bets continuously, scanning tote boards for opportunities. He made 768 bets in 18 hours, winning 384 and losing 360, ending up 62 units ahead despite a small bankroll.
- **Bankroll Recommendation** [12:51] — He recommends 500 to 1,000 units, starting with 500 units and a five-unit bet. He typically plays $5 or $10 units, starting on a $25 table.
- **Plus One Mechanics** [15:21] — The strategy involves writing down lost bets and betting one more unit than the last loss to cross off numbers. For example, if you lose a one-unit bet, you bet two; if you lose that, you write down two and keep betting two until you win, then cross off a number.
- **Commission-Free Game** [20:53] — The speaker plays at Commerce Casino, which offers a commission-free game with a Dragon 7 bonus, simplifying the math.

### Conclusion

The Plus One strategy is a bankroll management system that leverages the statistical reality of near 50/50 outcomes in baccarat, turning volume into profit. It requires discipline, a large bankroll, and a long-term perspective, as the speaker emphasizes that it's a marathon, not a sprint.

## Transcript

it. Appreciate everybody coming. So, uh, see everybody's kind of at the end of the day. It's 4:00. You guys have learned, uh, you know, I've been talking about a lot of stuff today. All kinds of different strategies. The goal has been
manage your bankroll, you know, try and beat the game, try and see what you can beat the game, try and see what you can do to get an edge out there, and uh, get in, get out, book the profit and leave. So, now it's the end of the day,
script. I play a completely different way. I no longer track shoes. I developed a system. I wrote software. I tracked 25,000 shoes, entered them all into a database, ran all kinds of
statistics on it, realized that I was making about 20,000 wagers a year, and at the end of which it was single, maybe double digits between my wins and maybe double digits between my wins and losses. It was so close to 50/50. It was
hundreds of a percentage difference on how many hands I won versus lost. Now, on weekends I won 50 more hands than I lost, and I'll have weekends that I lost end of the day, when it came down to numbers in mass and in volume, comes
Um, so, learning that, I developed a system. I said, "Well, if I can't if I can't always win more than I lose, is there a way that I can manage my
bankroll to work with my style of play?" Because I'm not going to disagree that of them make sense. A lot of them work sometimes. As a matter of fact, all of them work sometimes. All of them lose sometimes, too.
and I've lost with them sometimes. I started with, uh, Beat the Casino and I I can't even remember when. Or or mid-2000s, I think it's been. 20-something years, um, with, uh, Keith and Ellis and, you know, when
System 40 came out and OTB4U and all these things, um, you know, I've been around. Um, I remember the first time people talked to me they said "You mean you're going to pay somebody $900 to teach how to gamble? The hell is
wrong with you?" I said, "Well, I made 4,500 bucks that weekend, so seemed like a good bet." Um and they all laughed, but um you know, but it worked and for me it's all about the money. Um
so over time I changed a lot of my play. Like he said, I've been all over. We did the international baccarat seminar in in Hong Kong a few years back. Um I've played in the Bahamas. I've played in Florida a lot. I
played in Florida both in Tampa and Fort Lauderdale and Hollywood. Played Atlantic City, Pennsylvania by Keith. Um you know, through I took a an RV trip around the country, popped in all kinds
of cool places, played in Missouri and um different places throughout. Of course, Vegas has always been a staple. I live here now. Um and I before living here I used to come here all the time.
And um recently I started playing a little bit more out in California. And um the main thing that I found for those of you that aren't used to it and um I've been to Macau and seen, you know,
just the mass players of people playing. I can tell you I go to Commerce Casino probably twice a month on average. There that casino has more baccarat
tables running than I've ever seen anywhere including Macau. >> Um they have more tables going right now than there are in all of Las Vegas right now.
strip add in all the stations casinos around picture every single dealer dealing a hand right now. Right now there's more tables going on at that one casino. It's hundred and fifty plus tables.
>> Wow. >> And it's going all day, 365 days a year, and it it starts ramping up about 4:00 in the afternoon and just continues on >> What's the maximum bets? >> I don't think they have one, to be
>> But if you want >> I I I don't know. I mean, I've seen people bet $800 on dragon bet. >> Wow. >> um well in excess of $10,000 bets taken
on the table itself. Um they have three minimums that outside They have a little high limit room. It's got maybe five or six tables on it. Um they'll sometimes do like $200, $300 minimums in there. Usually, if it's
busy, what they'll actually do is they'll put in a uh 10 or $25,000 buy-in requirement uh on those tables there. Um I stay out of style of play. I mean, I can play at those stakes if I wanted to, but it
doesn't really fit my style. Um and people don't really appreciate the way I play in that room, especially. The benefit for me is it's wild wild I can reach over the table. You got a table with seven spots on it.
table. >> Jeez. betting on banker and three people betting on player on the same spot. Somebody just reaches over the hand and goes, I've been in cases where I had
same time. Um you know, all the tables full. You and it's, you know, 11 in a row banker run, you want to get on it? Get on, you know, we'll throw a little elbow. All of them do it. Um and uh you know, just
reach out and go. The only The only rule really is don't reach over the the person in the seat one who's the corporation banker because in California, you're actually not technically playing against the casino.
You're playing against another player and they have a company that employs somebody to sit there in the case that somebody doesn't want to do that. Um the hands they put a little thing out and they offer anybody else on the table to
what they have to do to stay legal and most people don't take it. Um and if that other person sits there. It's their job to sit there with a pile of money and bank the game. But the person dealing the cards
is not the one that has the chips. When you come in you buy chips. You buy chips from the dealer, but the chips that you win or lose comes from whoever's banking be the person on the seat one. And if
you're going to get some unhappy looks you. Um but aside from that, everything's dealers. Never seen that before, but you can literally walk right behind You can
walk behind the dealer and reach over the dealer's shoulder. >> And I kid you not. See, they don't love that, but they're actually they they frown less on that than frowning over betting over top of the one player on
no different than any other player on the table. than most. Um so uh that's the interesting thing. So for me it's about volume. Um I found that if
thousands of bets a year and I'm going to win half of them, well let's find a way that I can go ahead and make a profit based on that and then just do it in volume. So I developed plus one. And the concept of plus one the the
underlying concept is I'm going to win half my hands. eventually I'm going to get back to 50/50. Might take me 20 minutes. Might take me 6 hours. Might take me 16 hours or more.
But I'll win half my bets. And once I've won half my bets, I'll have a profit based on managing my money all the way through. So instead of making $100 unit bets, um I make I may be making bets $100, $200,
$300, but they're not 100 300 units. Um I will increase my unit size over time. Eventually, I get to the point sometimes I'll decide that I no longer want to continue the progression. I'll cut the
numbers in half so that I can um, you know, manage not continuing to make bets. If I'm sitting there and only I'm down to eight or $900 in front of me, it doesn't behoove me to make a $300 bet. Two of those, three of
those in a mount. Um as long as I'm playing plus one and I have chips in front of me, I'm not out. And I've been down to my last two $300. I can't tell you how many times. And walked out of the casino umpteen hours later with
$8,000 in my pocket. Um it's just a matter of time. Um variance of being down 10 more hands or 15 more hands or 20 more hands than I've won, not uncommon at all. Um as long as you're prepared for it
it works out. So, I developed a new scorecard um because I do still track everything. Um I I look at baccarat from an accounting perspective and I see a scorecard here. I don't know if it was handed out, but this is something new
ago because since I'm not sitting at one table, um it didn't make sense for me to to still look at it, but I'm doing it all
last. I'm doing all of the time before last. I'm doing the threes. Um I really do like the threes like he said and that was kind of a bit of a game changer require card charting a shoe. You walk right up to any one of the tote boards
bet." And the best thing is I'm standing in a room this size, you know, you know, there's quadrants of it that are that are size, looking at 40 50 tote boards and I can see just standing here, "Oh,
that looks like it's going to be a bet. Seven tables over there. Let me get over by the time I get there I can put a bet on that hand. And assuming you know, win lose that bet or whatever, even while that bet is in process, as I put the
I'm scanning around looking for another bet to make. I just want to make bets and bets and bets and bets. So, for example, last weekend I was So, for example, last weekend I was there, I made 768
bets. I'm sorry. Yeah, 768 bets. I won 360 I won 360 four of them and lost 360 of them. Won four more bets than I lost. Um I did that in 18 hours.
And um I would have made a lot more money had I been better funded. I had a really small bankroll relative. Um I only had a 100 unit bankroll. Um which I never recommend. I was way over betting for the bankroll.
But based on that, 18 hours later I walked out 62 units ahead. Um There was a lot of numbers cut. Um I lost walked out of there probably 20 30 numbers still written on my sheet
because I had cut so many numbers in half because I just wasn't in a position based on the unit size I was doing uh and the bankroll that I was working with to to run that uh through. But I was maintaining 50/50 and every win was
I had to do is get back to the point where I was at zero. And you know, I played 80 hands or so and I was down I think six hands and I and I was down I think six hands and I got to about 120 100 150
hands and uh I was back to like minus four. And then at a certain point um I had gotten down to minus I I had gone back to zero, but I wasn't quite ready to leave. Um I had reached I had a profit, but profit wasn't really
significant. It was, you know, 30 or 40 units. Um I had too many numbers that really ate a lot of my profits, but I was at an equilibrium. I had won exactly the same number of hands that I lost. I continued on playing, got a little
tired, and shortly thereafter, not really shortly, but a while thereafter, really shortly, but a while thereafter, maybe 80 hands later, or 80 bets later, maybe 80 hands later, or 80 bets later, I was down 14 losses more than wins.
continued to go, and I got all the way back to the point where I had zero again. And then I went back and forth. I played a couple more hands, and I got it up to plus six, and then back to zero, and then back up to plus
know, I there was a there was both a dollar goal and a cross-off number goal that I had in my head at that point. I was a little delirious. It was 11:00 in the morning. I had
walked in there at 5:30 the night before. Um but I was I was ready to go. But yeah, it's another split. Yeah, but but it was, you know, it was 700 something bets in 18 hours.
But in the end it it made it through. >> And what was your profit then at the >> Uh 62 units total. >> So, how many units do you buy in with enough. >> Yeah, I I typically don't I I've I've
said publicly every time I've stood up here and on the forum bluntly, don't It's not a good not a good situation. I usually recommend 500 to 1,000 units. Um
I start typically my my go-to play is to start with 500 units, and my first bet is a five-unit bet. I'm not playing $5. I typically will play $5 units. Um sometimes I'll play
$10 units, and um starting with the five units puts me on a $25 table. If you're playing at Commerce uh on a weekend,
about a third of the tables, maybe 25 30% of them are going to be $10. Another 20% of them will be $25, and the
rest of them will be 50. At 50 bucks, there is literally 150 playing really any system, you know, where I'm starting at even $5 units at five at five,
it isn't hard it isn't long before I'm making a $50 bet. So, it doesn't take me off, you know, at 50 and just call it $10 units at that point. But I was playing for quarters. So, you know, I didn't walk in there
breaking the bank and getting IRS forms. And I thought I was going to, you know, be a little bit more conservative than I was, but I very quickly was getting to the point where I was making $250 bets and
$200 bets. And I'm sitting there, you know, most of the night within 10 bets away of, you know, getting myself knocked out. The benefit when you're making, you know, larger
bets like that is you can leave with a lot of numbers still not crossed off. You can even leave without winning all your bets. You know, I do absolutely realize a profit when I hit zero. You know, let's assume
I cross off every number and hit zero, and I didn't split numbers. But with one, win one, lose one, win one, lose one, you can still leave with five numbers crossed off, five more hands lost than won, and still have a profit.
talking about about crossing off numbers cuz goes. So, playing plus one, the goal is I will make an initial bet and for the for the sake of simplicity,
units. Let's it starting with one unit. So, I'm going to make a bet for one unit. I make the bet. If I win that bet, my And I will continue. Um if I lose the bet, now I'm going to
write down that bet that I lost. So, I'm going to write down one. In order to get rid of that one, I have to bet one more unit than I had lost. So, I have to bet two. So, my first bet was one and I lost it.
Now, I'm going to bet two. Now, if I win that bet, I'm going to cross off the one and start all over again. Now, I've won unit. Obviously, I didn't drive 4 hours
one way just to do that. Um not going to work for me. Uh if you're making $1,000 unit bets, sure, that's going to work. But, walking into a casino with, you But, walking into a casino with, you know, 500 units and $1,000 units,
Um and to your point of what the will they uh I don't know if they're, you know, how how well they're going to take that. And I will tell you, I wouldn't really want to walk around the casino floor
carrying $100,000 because I haven't I've occasionally seen somebody walk up with a chip that is in a $1,000 denomi- denomination. It's the biggest denomination I've ever seen there. And the um the bankers that bank the
game don't carry them. So, if you make a $1,000 bet with a $1,000 denomination chip there, they will pay you $100 chips. They don't even have $500 chips. >> The entire casino is sitting there sitting with $100 chips down to ones.
They do ones, fives, uh 25s, and um and hundreds. Um and you know, people will bet 500, 600, 800 dollars on the dragon bet
>> Woah. >> Every single time. you lost. You bet two again? >> So, I'm going to bet two again. And let's assume that I lose that as well. So I lost two. So I'm going to write it
>> I'm going to keep betting two until I until I win. So let's let let's just >> Okay. Well, so you won a one, so I cross that off. Now two and a two left. two. I'm going to bet three. That's one more than two. So
uh I'm going to lose that bet. So I'm going to write down three. >> Nope. It it's once I lose half the levels. It it has to it has nothing to than what I've written down. All I'm doing is trying to cross off what I've
written down. Okay. So the the the math isn't um doesn't adjust based on a >> Okay. >> So if I'm writing So the assumption is
if I win this two, so it's I'm going to make another bet. three bet and I'll lose that one as well. well. So now I'm going to write that down.
Three. >> Okay. So you bet one and you lost it. >> Correct. >> But you started with five units. A five unit So it's the two bet is at a six unit or is that a 10 unit?
if I'm playing at a casino, I start at five units, it would be five then six down. I would write it down there. >> Correct. >> Make sure. Okay. >> If it's $5 So I write down all of my
documentation. If you ever see me post a scorecard, I always write units. I'll So and they may be $5 units. But actually at the top um of the card, that's also why I put in unit size. So I
may be play $25 units and that's how I know how much to bet. But the unit start um typically when I start it'll be $5 five units or 10 units. If maybe I'm at a $50 table and I want to make a $50 bet and maybe I want
to make the next one 55. So, I'll just write down 11. >> I'm going to play at the same level until I win. Until I cross off that two, >> The other two. >> the twos that are lost. So, let's say I
bet three again and I win it, then I'm going to cross off that one, too. I still have a two left. >> Okay. Win this. number is three. So, I'm going to bet four.
>> I bet the four and I lose the hand, I write down four. I bet again and I lose the hand, I write down four.
to cross off three. I bet four again and I win, cross off I bet four again and I win, cross off three. going to bet five. I bet five and I win, cross off four.
I bet five again and I lose, write down the five. >> five again and I win, cross off four. Now, I'm going to go to six to get rid of the five. I bet six and I win, cross
>> Start all over. Now, I go back and I make it one bet. If I win it, I write it ones. >> do you get to before you divide them in >> Depends on how much money I have, what time of the day it is.
So, I'm going to bet that 10. >> you just won nine units. every single number that's crossed off. So, it's yeah, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9. Yeah, My largest bet at this point, theoretically, I started Now, if I had
have I would have done would have been five, six, six, seven, seven, seven, >> Right. >> Um I'm playing commission-free game, by the way. Um Commerce is a Dragon 7, three-card Dragon 7, so there's no
>> So, what do you do there? Do you cover the 7 or don't? It's uh I'm going to win enough um that it it all washes out in the end. You can tracking something else that I have to bother with, you know? Do I want to do
progression, how many times I bet that hand. People say, "Well, what if it's a if they're all going to be big bets cuz bet after that is now a big bet. Once I hit 20 units or 30 units, now every bet.
separate progression to get back all the money that I lost betting those. >> So, it's just >> So, what's your largest bet? Since you've been playing this? 30 units, 25, 50?
>> [laughter] >> Keep Keep going. over. I I would say if I follow it strict, probably not more than low 30s,
but I also will from time to time combine numbers. Um usually the way I'll play aggressively is I'll start off on a $25 table, make a $5 uh five-unit bet. The first bet would be five units. The second bet would be six units. The third
bet, I will combine those two right off the bat. If I'm starting right off the beginning with a full bankroll and a full night of sleep and I'm ready to go, I can start right at the beginning and
>> And and and go that way. But at that point, you know, if it starts off a making a 11, 12, you know, making a 12, 13-unit bet right off the bat. Now, if it takes me a while, I can be at 20 pretty quickly within the
>> But I'm fresh and I'm knowing I do not sit at that table when I sit down expecting to be in and out in 15 minutes or an hour. If I hit no matter doesn't matter what I hit, if I've only been there 2, 3 hours, I'm not ready to go. I
live in Vegas. I I 4 hours to get over to LA. It'll be a 4-hour drive back, and I don't go there for anything else. I it'll be 9:00, 8:00, 10:00, 11:00 at night. What
reason. You know, it's me against the casino, so that's what I'm there to do. you know, I I start to gauge certain things after it gets later and later. 2:00, and look at it a little differently. But, you know, I've done
you know, >> tolerance for betting. >> tolerance for it. I I have a certain goal in mind. I know that I'm going to hit a certain thing eventually. And a certain average. Um
And, you know, it also depends It goes in waves. You know, I'll have Um periods just reading through something from last And in that 26 out of 40, there was two
in that 26 out of 40, there was two five-bet two five in a rows.