[0:00] Let's get this all fired up. Here we go.
[0:03] Here we go. Got to talk about Iran's
[0:06] response coming in hot off the tape. Uh
[0:11] and uh sure enough, it's uh not ideal.
[0:15] Good old uh Iranians not very happy with
[0:18] wanting to make a deal with Trump, which
[0:20] I mean to some extent it's hard to blame
[0:23] the Iranians. uh you know we had a
[0:25] ceasefire last year and you know you can
[0:28] kind of uh look at it as um wow y'all
[0:31] just uh took a year to sort of uh or 9
[0:33] months to build up a bigger attack
[0:36] against us huh so uh Iran uh just
[0:39] responded
[0:41] uh this is just now coming across the
[0:43] tape so let's uh let's write this down
[0:45] together here as uh as we sort of watch
[0:48] the cues uh they just d dove down a
[0:52] little bit here as usual our morning
[0:54] momentum just can't really hold it.
[0:57] Can't really keep it up. But Iran just
[0:59] responded and said Iran will not allow
[1:02] US Trump to dictate the timing of the
[1:06] end of war. Uh we have uh Thrron
[1:11] uh will continue uh defending itself.
[1:17] Okay. Let's get the uh let's get the H
[1:19] in there.
[1:22] Okay.
[1:24] Then I have
[1:27] uh first Iranian condition
[1:34] end attacks and assassinations. Those
[1:38] are those targeted bombings.
[1:41] Uh defensive operations
[1:44] defensive operations will continue until
[1:48] then. So, in other words, uh, aka don't
[1:52] talk to us until you stop bombing us.
[1:58] I mean, sounds reasonable, but also
[2:02] implies that we're quite a bit further
[2:04] away. Uh Iran reviewed the 15ount
[2:08] proposal
[2:11] uh point proposal
[2:15] from uh US admin sent via uh Pakistan
[2:21] uh considers the proposal
[2:24] excessive.
[2:27] Okay.
[2:30] Iran will end the war at a time of
[2:35] its own choosing if and only if
[2:38] conditions are met.
[2:42] All right, send that into the Meet Kevin
[2:44] app there. So, not an ideal uh Iranian
[2:49] response. Likely also unsurprising.
[2:53] Keep in mind there's been a lot of talk
[2:55] about the missile program.
[2:59] Uh
[3:01] it it seems Trump
[3:03] uh and Israel want to keep fighting
[3:07] until the missile program is eliminated.
[3:11] uh whereas Iran
[3:14] uh sees the mil missile program
[3:18] as their only
[3:20] uh deterrent
[3:22] for future attacks and unlikely to
[3:27] uh want to negotiate that missile
[3:31] program away.
[3:34] So that does create sort of this
[3:39] diametric opposition between the two. Uh
[3:43] which is pretty remarkable.
[3:46] Okay, good. Let's go take a peek at
[3:50] some of the other coverage coming out
[3:52] out there.
[3:56] So
[3:58] see what we have. This is
[4:04] uh let's see. Let's see. Let's see here.
[4:07] Wow, that's crazy. Look at this missile
[4:10] in a schoolyard.
[4:12] As gas prices spike, California has hit
[4:14] the hardest. Yep,
[4:16] that's not a surprise. California has a
[4:18] lot of additional taxes uh on top of uh
[4:23] gasoline prices.
[4:29] Yeah. and they still can't get that DHS
[4:31] shutdown uh figured out which is also
[4:35] quite remarkable.
[4:38] Let's see what live updates we have
[4:40] here. So the live blog suggests
[4:48] general secretary of NATO is often
[4:50] called the Trump whisperer able to mix
[4:52] public flattery with private advice.
[4:57] even called Trump and the alliances
[5:00] daddy before last year's NATO summit.
[5:04] All right. Israel's missiles have been
[5:06] working to intercept.
[5:09] UN calls this conflict an unprecedented
[5:12] says this conflict has an unprecedented
[5:14] power to unsnare countries across
[5:16] borders and around the world. Right.
[5:18] Well, I mean, if this goes on for too
[5:20] long, I think it's everybody's pretty
[5:22] well convinced this is a uh uh, you
[5:25] know, recession inducing conflict, but
[5:28] hopefully we, you know, we don't get
[5:29] there.
[5:34] Let's see here. US carrier.
[5:41] Okay. Yeah, Trump says that 100 missiles
[5:45] were fired towards the US carrier. The
[5:48] military says a few missiles were fired
[5:50] towards the carrier, but none of them
[5:51] came close. They were all shot down. I'm
[5:54] not sure sometimes where Donnie T gets
[5:56] his numbers from, but there there's
[5:59] generally not a lack of entertainment in
[6:01] his storytelling.
[6:04] Uh, Iran Iran demands establishment of
[6:08] concrete guarantee preventing resurgence
[6:11] of war. Uh,
[6:14] yeah.
[6:17] That's understandable
[6:20] from the Iranian regime. Iranian regime
[6:23] wants concrete guarantee
[6:26] uh preventing resurgence of war. Yeah.
[6:35] Totally reasonable.
[6:38] ECB is prepared to raise interest rates
[6:40] if the energy s shock spurred by the war
[6:43] significantly pushes up inflation.
[6:47] Christine Lagard said at a conference,
[6:49] "We will not act before we have
[6:51] sufficient information on the size of
[6:53] the shock, but we will not be paralyzed
[6:56] by hesitation."
[6:59] That's an interesting line on uh on and
[7:03] that's to some extent what markets are
[7:04] pricing in now is I think we've got like
[7:06] a 50% chance of a uh of a rate hike in
[7:10] the United States as well.
[7:14] Uh
[7:16] right so
[7:19] golly
[7:21] says that Iran is closely monitoring
[7:25] all US movements in the region. This
[7:28] comes right after this talk about
[7:30] deploying 2,000 paratroopers.
[7:34] Oh, Iran is also demanding payment for
[7:37] war damage.
[7:40] Uh, Iran is also demanding payment for
[7:44] war damages.
[7:48] Uh, must be hard to negotiate when more
[7:51] troops are being sent to the region. uh
[7:56] implies uh negotiations may not be in
[7:59] good faith
[8:01] and that's that's a big concern is that
[8:03] you know do the Iranians actually
[8:06] believe the Trump administration is
[8:07] negotiating in good faith. What do we
[8:10] have here? Israel military issued sixth
[8:12] warning of incoming missiles.
[8:16] Property damage so far but no
[8:17] fatalities. Jeez, what a mass.
[8:21] It's sad.
[8:26] All right,
[8:31] intercepting more missiles. Yeah, lot
[8:34] lot a lot of missiles and drones still
[8:37] being fired.
[8:39] China's foreign minister spoke with the
[8:41] Iranian counterpart on Tuesday in a
[8:44] phone call uh and he said that hoped he
[8:46] hoped all sides would seize every
[8:48] opportunity for peace. Right. Well, that
[8:51] means nothing.
[8:54] Pentagon has ordered about 2,000
[8:55] soldiers from the 82nd Airborne.
[8:58] It's a force of 3,000. So, they sent
[9:01] 2,000 of the three.
[9:04] Okay, fine. Let's try uh the journal.
[9:08] Oh, did you did you all see this
[9:09] Volkswagen piece right here? Uh
[9:12] Volkswagen
[9:13] in talks with Israel's Iron Dome maker
[9:17] uh to shift from cars to missile
[9:19] defense.
[9:23] That's pretty remarkable. That's sort of
[9:25] like a Defense Production Act style work
[9:28] here.
[9:30] Volkswagen is in talks with Israel's
[9:33] Raphael Advanced Defense System over a
[9:36] deal that would switch production from
[9:38] cars to missile defense.
[9:42] ONAB. Wow. Planned to make components
[9:47] for their Iron Dome system. Wow.
[9:53] Profits have plunged in the car industry
[9:55] thanks to German or Chinese competition.
[9:58] Yeah,
[9:59] understandable. They're hoping to save
[10:01] all 2,300 jobs at the plant.
[10:06] Let's go take a look at this. This isn't
[10:08] far from where I've got family.
[10:14] A castle garden. I want to go to a
[10:16] castle garden.
[10:20] Let's open this puppy up. I get it.
[10:23] Yeah, there it is.
[10:26] So,
[10:27] yeah, just past Müster.
[10:33] Interesting. So, and then also let's
[10:36] type in Volkswagen plant.
[10:40] Volkswagen Hall 81.
[10:45] Oh, right by the railard. Look at that.
[10:47] That's really cool.
[10:49] Wow. This is like a Oh, yeah. Look at
[10:50] all the cars on the on the rail. Oh,
[10:54] that's awesome. A train station right
[10:57] here. Taking all the Volkswagen cars
[11:00] right out.
[11:02] That's really cool. They got their own
[11:03] train station.
[11:05] Yeah, you can just take it from here and
[11:08] go load them up onto a onto a track.
[11:11] Yeah, look at that right here. That
[11:13] almost looks like a ramp. See, they
[11:15] could pull like the flatbed part of the
[11:17] train right up and then you could
[11:19] literally just drive the car
[11:23] uh right onto the train.
[11:26] That's my guess. Like this would be like
[11:28] a loading track maybe. You know, goes
[11:31] over here, backs up, and then you're
[11:33] you're in here. Yeah. See, here's your
[11:35] flat. That's very cool.
[11:40] That's awesome.
[11:42] Car factory reviews
[11:45] super
[11:47] car transporters.
[11:51] Oh wow, look at that. They even mapped
[11:54] it out.
[11:58] There is no control. Call them and then
[12:00] wait who knows how long. It's a mess.
[12:14] Okay. Uh anyway, very interesting. So
[12:20] this facility, the consideration
[12:23] is to switch these folks from auto
[12:26] manufacturing
[12:28] to Iron Dome defense.
[12:33] Wow.
[12:35] major return to weaponry for Volkswagen
[12:42] which produced military vehicles and the
[12:45] V1 flying bomb for Hitler. Wait, what is
[12:49] the V1 flying bomb? Oh, it's the world's
[12:53] first operational cruise missile used by
[12:56] Nazi Germany.
[12:58] Wow.
[13:01] So, it looks like a plane, but it's
[13:04] actually just a bomb.
[13:07] That's wild.
[13:09] Various iron dome parts.
[13:17] That is quite interesting.
[13:20] All right. Well,
[13:24] let's take a screenshot of that. I think
[13:26] that's very interesting.
[13:28] Grab that.
[13:30] And uh
[13:32] I'll make a little note on that. So this
[13:34] is uh Israel
[13:36] um potentially partnering with.
[13:40] So Israel uh and Volkswagen
[13:45] what what they say first time first time
[13:47] since World War II that Volkswagen
[13:51] uh made military uh components. Uh wait
[13:54] but aren't they making military vehicles
[13:56] still? Uh already makes military trucks.
[13:59] Yeah.
[14:01] Oh, this returns to a return to
[14:03] weaponry. Ah, made uh weapons
[14:07] would be the first time would be the
[14:12] first time since World War II that
[14:13] Volkswagen made weapon weapon components
[14:21] possible. Uh VW US I want to steal the
[14:27] uh
[14:29] letters there. VW might become an iron
[14:34] dome uh component maker for Israel.
[14:41] And this is I think 20 what they say
[14:43] 2600 staff 2300 staff.
[14:52] 2300 staff.
[14:54] Uh Volkswagen
[14:57] made flying bomb. The V1
[15:03] flying bomb in World War II.
[15:06] What was that? The what they say? The
[15:08] world's first cruise missile.
[15:11] I think that's what we looked up.
[15:14] It was world's first operational cruise
[15:17] missile.
[15:19] uh world's first operational cruise
[15:22] missile uh which implies powered through
[15:26] uh the duration of its flight, right?
[15:28] Like if you compare to a ballistic uh
[15:32] missile is only powered uh for a portion
[15:36] of its flight and then uh the that's the
[15:40] ballistic nature of the missile is it's
[15:42] powered and then the rest is just the
[15:44] arc. It's sort of like you lobbed it up
[15:47] and then the rest is just basically
[15:48] falling. Kind of interesting. Okay. Uh
[15:53] all right. Iran's also coming out and
[15:55] now saying
[15:57] All right. There's a little bit more
[15:58] here. So Iran demands,
[16:01] let's write it down. Iran demands
[16:05] recognition of Tran's sovereignty over
[16:09] the strait
[16:11] uh of Hormuz. That sort of implies that
[16:14] they want to keep taxing it, right? Uh
[16:17] implies Iran wants to keep taxing,
[16:21] controlling,
[16:22] permitting
[16:24] uh the strait. I I don't I don't know
[16:29] that the US is going to be okay with
[16:31] that. Toron wants the end of the war.
[16:35] Yeah. And also wants the end to the war
[16:38] to resistance groups.
[16:41] also wants uh Iraqi and
[16:45] Lebanese uh resistance groups to stop
[16:49] coming under fire. And a lot of this has
[16:52] to do with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which
[16:56] is just getting bombarded by uh by
[16:59] Israel right now.
[17:02] Okay, let's go to the journal.
[17:06] So, Iran plays hard ball. I think that's
[17:10] those are just sort of the updates that
[17:11] we just got,
[17:15] but we'll double check.
[17:21] Iran suspected of directing attacks in
[17:23] Europe. We'll have to take a look at
[17:24] that.
[17:31] All right. And then how how's the market
[17:33] surviving? Uh the Q's recovered. Yeah,
[17:36] after the statement came out from Iran,
[17:38] you actually got a little bit of a
[17:39] recovery here. Yeah, even on TLT.
[17:49] All right,
[17:50] let's jump into here. Yeah, dollar being
[17:53] up on dis. Well, I mean, there's still
[17:56] the expectation that rates in the United
[17:59] States will be higher than anywhere else
[18:00] in the world. uh because the US economy
[18:03] is the strongest and so the dollar has
[18:06] been moving up as sort of a trade
[18:11] uh because of that anticipation that the
[18:13] Fed might hike rates and we might end up
[18:16] with some of the highest rates in the
[18:17] world.
[18:19] We're you know we've been pretty high on
[18:20] rates so far relative to everyone else
[18:22] as well.
[18:25] Hey Kevin, how do you like that switch
[18:26] from coffee to tea? I like it a lot. No,
[18:29] it's a lot more moderate. So,
[18:33] um, doesn't taste as bad as coffee. You
[18:36] know, coffee is pretty bitter when you
[18:38] just have it black, which I do. Uh, and,
[18:41] uh, tea's not that bad at all.
[18:47] Like, if you're used to that black
[18:50] coffee bitterness, you don't mind
[18:52] steeping your tea forever.
[18:54] Doesn't get anywhere close to coffee.
[18:56] Anyway, mediators from Turkey, Egypt,
[18:58] Pakistan are pushing for a meeting
[19:00] between the US and Iranians, but Tran
[19:02] displayed defiance.
[19:04] Right.
[19:06] Uh Iran's military spokesman suggested
[19:09] the US was negotiating with itself to
[19:12] get out of strategic defeat.
[19:15] Nice. How'd they say that?
[19:24] Uh, comments relayed. Somebody like us
[19:28] will never get along with somebody like
[19:30] you. Not now. Not ever. Well, that's not
[19:33] great.
[19:40] That's Yeah. So, you know, basically
[19:45] Iran is under the impression that
[19:47] they're the boss of the region.
[19:50] Uh
[19:52] they're the boss of the region and the
[19:56] regional superpower
[19:58] uh with their military,
[20:02] you know,
[20:07] uh some quotes
[20:12] uh on Iran.
[20:16] Okay. So,
[20:19] someone like us will never get along
[20:21] with someone like you until you
[20:22] understand stability in the region is
[20:24] guaranteed by Iran's army.
[20:32] Yeah, let's reword this a little bit.
[20:34] But this is very interesting.
[20:36] All of these here. So,
[20:39] who was this again? This was a
[20:48] comments related by the state news
[20:50] agency.
[20:51] Okay,
[20:55] let's jot some of these down here
[21:05] and snag the journal link.
[21:11] Uh there's there's almost
[21:15] an I like it's it's not about money
[21:18] here. It's almost an ideological
[21:21] uh play. Uh Iran wants to be the boss of
[21:25] the region. Maybe that's why the Saudis
[21:32] uh say keep going, seize the historic
[21:36] opportunity
[21:37] uh and remake the region. Right. Maybe
[21:40] the Saudis are kind of tired of Iran,
[21:43] too.
[21:47] Nice. I tried that transition. Just feel
[21:49] less productive. Need that caffeine
[21:50] boost. Yeah. Yeah. You have to have more
[21:52] tea. That's the problem. You know, it's
[21:54] probably what it's probably like a 3:1
[21:56] ratio. I mean, you're certainly going to
[21:58] get more uh liquid intakes
[22:01] that way, right? Uh most assembly plants
[22:05] have trained right next to Yeah, makes
[22:06] sense. PWTO was awesome to visit as a
[22:10] kid in Wolfsburg. Oh, that's cool. We
[22:13] talked about the dollar. War sucks. Lost
[22:16] my dad during the invasion on Iraq in
[22:17] 03. That sucks. I'm sorry to hear that.
[22:22] They call They called a forever war
[22:24] against uh the West back when the first
[22:27] catalyst, right, during the uh uh or
[22:30] after the Israel invasion.
[22:34] More tea. I hear you. Yeah, exactly.
[22:36] More tea. Tired. more tea. What's up,
[22:37] Tom? So,
[22:42] yeah, I don't know. This is uh they they
[22:44] seem diametrically opposed.
[22:48] Uh this is this is so different than
[22:52] uh feels so different
[22:55] than negotiating uh money with China,
[22:59] you know, tariffs. It's it's really
[23:04] um how should I put it
[23:09] built into the the belief that you know
[23:11] Iran is the superpower of the region.
[23:14] What is this? Iran suspected of
[23:16] directing attacks in Europe creating
[23:17] bogus group to claim responsibility.
[23:21] Authorities are investigating Iran's
[23:23] involvement in a string of terrorist
[23:24] attacks in Europe that have targeted
[23:27] Jewish sites.
[23:33] Uh
[23:37] yeah,
[23:39] apparently the Islamic Movement of
[23:42] Righteous Companions
[23:45] potentially made up.
[23:53] Wow.
[23:59] charred remains of an ambulance in
[24:01] London. Oh yeah. Wow.
[24:06] So
[24:08] March 23rd, a group claimed
[24:10] responsibility for torching a car in the
[24:11] Jewish district of Antworp
[24:16] ambulance in London.
[24:19] Dutch authorities on the 22nd said they
[24:22] foiled an attack on a synagogue.
[24:24] multiple explosive devices were
[24:26] discovered. Belgian investigators are
[24:28] examining whether incidents on their
[24:29] soil were directed by Iran or if dormant
[24:32] cells were activated. See, nobody wants
[24:35] to hear that. This whole like
[24:38] sleeper cell
[24:40] concern. None of that is good.
[24:54] Yeah,
[24:58] refugees from the Middle East have been
[25:00] arrested carrying addresses and
[25:02] photographs of Israeli targets. Oh, wow.
[25:04] Look at that. So, you've got Palestinian
[25:07] and Lebanese militias linked people as
[25:10] well as European-born criminals and
[25:12] refugees from the Middle East have been
[25:14] arrested carrying addresses and
[25:16] photographs of Israeli targets.
[25:18] Wow.
[25:21] War sucks.
[25:27] Uh, okay. So,
[25:32] what else we got here? Gives us a little
[25:34] bit of cover here on
[25:39] Iran.
[25:48] Okay, let's go look at the info because
[25:50] I know there's some talk about
[25:52] potentially moving up the SpaceX IPO.
[25:56] 2-year Treasury at 388. Pretty stable,
[26:01] actually.
[26:03] And
[26:05] oh, we're still down on the 10-year
[26:06] Treasury. 3.34. That's good. That's
[26:10] good. Look at that. Back over 590 here
[26:12] on the cues.
[26:15] trying to get back to 400 on Tesla.
[26:18] Okay.
[26:20] AMD had a great bounce right off of uh
[26:23] 200. It's up like what is it at? Two
[26:27] Yeah, it's at about 220 now. It's about
[26:29] a 10% bounce off the 200 line. We were
[26:32] talking about that in the alpha report
[26:33] yesterday. Okay. So,
[26:37] Meta Platform, more layoffs. So many
[26:40] layoffs. It it's remarkable how we could
[26:42] get all these layoffs and then we still
[26:43] got the ADP report yesterday that
[26:49] uh you know we grew 10,000 jobs for the
[26:52] week ending March 7th. Still remarkable
[26:54] to me. What was the President Trump got?
[26:56] Well, it was never clearly articulated,
[26:58] but the assumption was that it had to do
[27:00] with non-hostile ships being able to
[27:02] trans um transit the straight of Hermuz
[27:06] that uh that announcement was sort of
[27:10] the uh the promise to Trump, if you
[27:12] will.
[27:15] Could have been something else, but
[27:16] that's what uh seems to be the current
[27:19] thought. Okay. Yeah. Here's the IPO
[27:24] filing talk.
[27:30] Let's take a look at this. So, this is
[27:32] the SpaceX
[27:34] rumor basically. And the rumor now is
[27:37] that SpaceX might try to IP file their
[27:39] IPO confidentially as soon as this week
[27:42] or next week, which basically means Elon
[27:45] is trying to press this along as fast as
[27:48] humanly possible.
[27:55] Yeah, this isn't going to happen. Uh,
[27:57] Iran
[28:01] Iran demands
[28:04] determination and guarantee
[28:07] guaranteed payment
[28:10] for war damage.
[28:12] Yeah right.
[28:16] Do you imagine Trump paying them?
[28:21] Okay,
[28:24] so
[28:26] maybe that's why more troops are coming.
[28:28] Advisers involved in the preparation
[28:30] predict the company could try to raise
[28:32] more than $75 billion.
[28:36] Wow. Uh
[28:39] that would raise that would surpass all
[28:42] money raised by US IPOs last year. Holy
[28:45] smokes. Going to be the largest IPO for
[28:47] a long time. SpaceX filings may show it
[28:51] losing money after absorbing XAI,
[28:56] but many investment firms are reluctant
[28:58] to bet against Musk. Yep, true.
[29:08] SpaceX individual investor portion might
[29:11] exceed 20%, final numbers left to left
[29:14] or um yet to be finalized. The company
[29:17] will not have a standard six-month
[29:19] lockup period. Wow.
[29:24] The rule prevents insiders from selling
[29:25] shares all at once, depressing a stock
[29:27] price. Sounds to me like Elon Elon might
[29:30] need to raise some money himself.
[29:34] The arrangement is still being sorted
[29:36] out. Wow.
[29:39] No lockup either, so you can instantly
[29:42] dump.
[29:46] All right. So, let's go back over here.
[29:49] We've got the Q's
[29:52] roughly where we opened, you know,
[29:55] roughly a little lower there on TLT, but
[29:58] roughly where we opened.
[30:02] Okay,
[30:04] let's see.
[30:06] Let's go to the FT. And then, you know
[30:08] what? Maybe even the Economist. Let's
[30:10] see what the Economist has for us. So
[30:12] the economist this morning says markets
[30:14] are gripped by cognitive dissonance.
[30:18] Tell me what you mean.
[30:22] Uh
[30:23] what a battle for reopening her moose
[30:25] would look like.
[30:27] Painful.
[30:29] And take a quick look at that.
[30:34] Marco Rubian the chameleon in the war
[30:36] room.
[30:43] Uh,
[30:45] all right. Let's grab this one as well.
[30:54] Okay. See what we have here. So, Trump's
[30:56] latest climb down suggests he wants to
[30:58] end the war.
[31:02] This was the five-day pause. Less than
[31:04] an hour later, the IDF said planes were
[31:07] currently striking targets.
[31:10] Uh but Trump also claimed that America
[31:14] was in talks with Iran about a complete
[31:16] and total resolution.
[31:22] Trump did the rounds.
[31:26] But Trump's climb down could also
[31:27] suggest a signal a divergence in Israel
[31:31] and America's goals. Oh yeah, totally.
[31:34] Israel wants to keep this thing going.
[31:38] You know, they this is an opportunity
[31:40] for them. Critical step towards
[31:42] neutralizing Iran's military threat is
[31:45] Israel's point of view. Nuclear program,
[31:47] ballistic missile program. They don't
[31:49] want to end this, but you know, Trump's
[31:51] kind of got wrapped into this where I he
[31:54] probably thinks he can't really leave
[31:55] Israel hanging right now.
[31:59] Trump's focus is trying to avoid the
[32:02] global energy crisis, hence the
[32:04] optimism. I agree with that.
[32:12] Uh let's see here.
[32:17] American and Israeli war planners did
[32:19] not begin the war thinking Trump would
[32:22] be in it for the long run. His record
[32:25] suggests a preference for speedy, flashy
[32:27] operations like Maduro. Yeah. Or last
[32:30] summer with the B2 bombers.
[32:34] Israeli ministers began to believe that
[32:36] Trump would stick with it as long as
[32:38] Israel wanted.
[32:41] On the 22nd, Israel said that they were
[32:43] only halfway through
[32:47] and it would continue through
[32:50] basically April 8th.
[32:56] uh
[33:00] Trump's how long it's going and Trump's
[33:03] latest climb down undermine the idea
[33:04] that Iran is fragile.
[33:07] True. True. I mean, they've they've held
[33:11] up.
[33:15] Okay.
[33:17] Reopen the straight
[33:20] three-phase plan.
[33:23] Hunting down military assets from the
[33:25] Iranians is one.
[33:28] The hunters are mainly aircraft but may
[33:30] soon include ground troops. The second
[33:34] phase is sweeping for mines.
[33:37] And the last one
[33:39] would be escorting.
[33:42] Each stage could take several weeks. So
[33:44] it's possible that's why troops are
[33:46] going to the region as well.
[33:59] Yeah, Robert, sorry you're dealing with
[34:01] transmission issues. It's, you know, it
[34:02] seems like once a car starts going down
[34:04] the path of needing repairs, you fix one
[34:07] thing and then another thing breaks, it
[34:09] it it's really annoying and frustrating.
[34:12] Um, but it's also it's tough to to go
[34:15] down to one car, right? Maybe it works
[34:18] for your situation, but what I see a lot
[34:19] of people do in this situation is, you
[34:21] know, they end up getting they sell a
[34:23] car, they feel good, they pay off debt,
[34:25] and then, you know, 3 months later
[34:27] they're at a car dealership going into
[34:29] even way more debt than they had before.
[34:32] So, it almost makes me wonder, you know,
[34:34] is there like a used Corolla or
[34:37] something that that you could buy? Uh I
[34:40] wonder how much those puppies are
[34:41] selling for these days. Used Toyota
[34:44] Corolla. Oh, man. Man, look at that.
[34:49] 11,000 mi. Carvana Ventura. I'm at 23K.
[34:55] Yeah, but that's a lot here. For 9
[34:57] grand, 10 grand, I could get a 67,000
[35:01] milei Corolla,
[35:06] man. For under for under a rack of 10.
[35:11] And what year is this puppy? I know it's
[35:12] 67,000 miles.
[35:16] You basically got a selfie of this
[35:18] person. Anyway, uh 2017 uh that's kind
[35:21] of old. Yeah, that's already 9 years
[35:24] old. But uh
[35:27] I think there are plenty of good deals
[35:28] of cars out there. Just have to kind of
[35:32] look around.
[35:35] How much is a new Corolla these days?
[35:38] Toyota Corolla.
[35:41] Not that necessarily have to get new,
[35:43] but I just want to see the delta. Like
[35:45] how much you actually saving. Uh, so
[35:49] view dealer inventory. Sure, whatever.
[35:52] Let's see.
[36:01] And then we'll get back to So, oh wow.
[36:04] Yeah, they're 24,000 bucks on the low
[36:07] end,
[36:10] you know. Then you got delivery fees and
[36:13] taxes and all the crap. It's $30 30
[36:16] grand before you're out the door. It's a
[36:19] lot.
[36:21] I mean, at that point, yeah, you're
[36:23] right. If you're going to spend 30 grand
[36:24] on a Corolla, you know, what is a used
[36:27] Tesla Model 3 look like?
[36:30] Let's see. Vehicles
[36:34] pre-owned inventory.
[36:38] Model 3.
[36:40] Wow, look at that.
[36:42] 2018 Model 3, 17 grand, 87,000 miles. I
[36:46] mean, those are a lot of miles.
[36:50] You're going to have fewer service
[36:52] issues but
[36:54] some of these are old. What if I wanted
[36:57] something that was newer?
[36:59] Like, I don't know, give me something
[37:00] that's like 2023.
[37:04] 2023 23K. That's still less than than
[37:09] the new Corolla
[37:11] and some of the newer used ones. 35,000
[37:15] uh miles. It's not bad at all. Still
[37:18] pretty dang new.
[37:25] Yeah. But wait, includes include
[37:28] estimated there. Uh 25. Yeah. Once you
[37:31] all
[37:34] Yeah. Anyway. All right. All right. So,
[37:35] where were we? So, we looked at this. We
[37:39] looked at this. What do we have here?
[37:41] Markets are gripped by an alarming
[37:44] cognitive dissonance. Okay. So, we
[37:45] talked about Trump. We talked about how
[37:47] to reopen the straight. Now, we're
[37:49] looking at this cognitive dissonance.
[37:51] Every buyer needs a seller.
[37:55] Uh, let's see here. For now,
[38:00] let's see here. No one knows when the
[38:02] straight will reopen.
[38:05] blah blah blah.
[38:10] Come on. Should a nightmare scenario
[38:12] unfold with the Gulf War lasting months
[38:13] or years? An energy shock plunging the
[38:16] world into recession? That would be bad.
[38:22] That would be the night scenario.
[38:24] Nightmare scenario. Share prices have
[38:26] fallen but on big bonuses and having a
[38:27] correction territory.
[38:29] America's S&P 500 is still within a few%
[38:31] of all-time high.
[38:33] Many of the people who are bidding it
[38:35] there meanwhile are sitting mere deaths
[38:37] away from commodity analysts discussing
[38:39] the the disast disastrous consequences
[38:42] for the world. Right? So basically
[38:46] there's this idea of like hey if this
[38:48] keeps going on
[38:50] the energy shock will go will push the
[38:53] world into a nasty recession. Meanwhile
[38:56] the S&P 500 is just a few points from
[38:58] alltime highs. So, how do you have both
[39:02] of these going on? Basically, that's
[39:04] what the economist is saying here. What
[39:06] on earth is going on?
[39:08] Well, that's why I I look at the bond
[39:09] market, too. I I I really try to pay
[39:11] attention to the bond market more than
[39:13] just the movement and the cues or
[39:14] whatever.
[39:23] All right. Well, the economists didn't
[39:26] really have a conclusion for it. It
[39:27] seems like they were just sort of
[39:28] observing it. Uh you've got here
[39:33] still a decline in a 10-year though.
[39:35] You're down 6.4 basis points now, right?
[39:41] That's uh that's pretty wild.
[39:44] Which in a positive way and that's
[39:47] despite even the two years down and
[39:49] that's despite them uh you know
[39:51] announcing that uh you know they're not
[39:53] interested in in our deal.
[39:58] Uh oil still sitting at about a hundred
[40:00] bucks on Brent. Okay, let's go take a
[40:04] peek at the FT. What's the FT got for
[40:06] us?
[40:13] Tumbling gold prices have put haven
[40:16] status in doubt.
[40:18] Yeah.
[40:28] Let's see here.
[40:33] War empties Dubai malls rattles
[40:36] struggling luxury industry.
[40:43] Yeah.
[40:45] Okay. Not much actually on the FT here.
[40:48] I mean, the Volkswagen piece over here
[40:50] was very interesting,
[40:52] but not much uh majorly new here. Let's
[40:57] try the doomers.
[41:00] Doomers.
[41:02] They want reparations. New York City
[41:04] possible strike by 34,000.
[41:08] Let's see here. Saudi
[41:11] Saudi surges oil exports.
[41:15] They get, you know, that's the other
[41:16] thing with the Saudis. if you think
[41:18] about it is
[41:21] they might benefit
[41:24] quite substantially actually
[41:26] uh from uh these higher oil prices.
[41:32] So,
[41:34] uh,
[41:36] the longer the war goes on,
[41:39] longer the war goes on, the more Saudis
[41:45] can sell expensive oil.
[41:50] Little jaded probably.
[41:53] Oops. I think I put that in
[41:57] yesterday's piece. Let me put that
[42:00] up here
[42:02] where we were talking about the Saudis
[42:04] as well.
[42:08] Okay,
[42:11] Arlay. Yeah, th this is that credit
[42:14] tightening by the way that's happening
[42:22] right here.
[42:25] Barclays is scaling back its assets back
[42:28] assetbacked lending.
[42:30] British bank is focusing shifting focus
[42:33] to loans and securizations for larger
[42:35] corporates as opposed to basically
[42:39] private credit.
[42:41] Uh downfall of MFS and subprime lender
[42:45] have put a spotlight on lending to
[42:47] non-bank entities.
[42:49] Yeah, much of this lending is private
[42:51] without input from ratings firms. And I
[42:54] think there was also a a note from the
[42:56] SEC questioning ratings lately.
[43:04] Let me see here.
[43:09] Yep, here it is. SEC raises questions
[43:12] over rating agency behind private credit
[43:14] boom. whether Egan and Jones, the small
[43:18] credit rating provider, had come under
[43:19] fire for its grades on private credit
[43:21] loans,
[43:24] whether or not they can consistently
[43:26] produce credit ratings with integrity.
[43:28] Yikes.
[43:30] Raises questions
[43:32] about the adequacy of their managerial
[43:35] resources.
[43:37] Hey, yeah, we'll give you a rating.
[43:39] We'll just slap it on there. Just pay us
[43:41] more.
[43:48] Banks often provide uh warehouse
[43:50] facilities to non-banks to fund lending
[43:52] products which are packaged into asset
[43:55] back securities and sold to investors.
[44:04] Uh
[44:06] blah blah blah blah blah. Yeah, this
[44:08] sort of credit tightening though,
[44:11] it takes a while to show up on like the
[44:13] St. Louis Fed. St. Louis Fred credit
[44:18] tightening, but once it does it it's
[44:21] usually not great. It's just Yeah. See,
[44:25] right now you're not actually showing
[44:26] that. This is on credit cards. Credit
[44:28] cards you're basically flat. So, you're
[44:30] not seeing any tightening. You usually
[44:32] see tightening going into the recessions
[44:34] at the start of recessions. So, you're
[44:36] not seeing that yet. Tightening
[44:39] standards,
[44:41] commercial and industrial loans. Yeah,
[44:43] it's still not showing up over here. And
[44:46] this seems to be monthly, quarterly
[44:48] data. Oh, so it it'll take a while to
[44:50] really show up into in stuff like this.
[44:53] You won't really get uh that information
[44:56] timely.
[45:01] Uh let's see here. What else?
[45:06] Egypt's foreign minister says we have a
[45:09] plan to continue efforts.
[45:16] Yeah.
[45:18] And we got the Iran update earlier.
[45:23] All right, let's go take a look at the
[45:24] market again.
[45:27] Uh, okay. Look at this. So, this is TLT.
[45:30] Nice recovery here as yields are coming
[45:32] down helping uh helping loft up stocks
[45:37] which is very good.
[45:39] And uh
[45:43] what else is going on out there? Let's
[45:45] go take a peek at uh let's go to like
[45:49] axios or political. Let's go look at
[45:50] those for a moment. Iran rejects the
[45:53] 15point plan. Yes, that we know.
[46:01] Iran suspects peace talk is just another
[46:04] trick. Yeah, we talked about that
[46:06] yesterday. This this fear which to some
[46:09] extent is rational that Iranians have
[46:13] told mediators
[46:15] that the US's military movement
[46:18] increased suspicion that this proposal
[46:20] is just a ruse.
[46:25] Trump has a hand open for a deal and the
[46:29] other is a fist waiting to punch you in
[46:31] the effing face.
[46:35] Uh, okay. That was a Trump adviser who
[46:37] said that. Yeah. Come here. Come here.
[46:39] Take it. Take it. Take it. Boom. Pow.
[46:43] I could see that.
[46:52] Yeah, that's that's a useful quote.
[46:56] And then we have the rejection over
[46:58] here. This is what we just covered.
[47:02] Yeah. Getting the compensation part is
[47:05] going to be wild. But also, it's not
[47:07] just that.
[47:09] It's compensation and it's also the
[47:12] ballistic missile program. Those are
[47:15] going to be issues.
[47:21] So then uh let's try political. Oh,
[47:24] sometimes Wapo has something too.
[47:28] Try both.
[47:33] Uh let's see.
[47:36] Lawmakers introduced bill to prohibit
[47:38] members of Congress and the president
[47:40] from trading in prediction markets.
[47:42] Yeah. Well, good luck getting anything
[47:44] passed in Congress right now.
[47:49] housing crypto trade. House Republicans
[47:52] shoot it down. House Republicans are
[47:53] rejecting a proposal of accepting the
[47:55] Senate's housing package in exchange for
[47:57] the upper chamber, including uh
[48:00] basically you know the Clarity Act.
[48:04] Yeah, I don't think they're going to get
[48:06] anything passed anymore this year.
[48:11] Trump showed classified map
[48:14] to passengers on his pl private plane.
[48:18] Yeah, I mean I I think Donald Trump does
[48:22] not believe any rules really apply to
[48:24] him. So I I I don't doubt that Iran. But
[48:29] I also
[48:31] that's not the topic for today. US plan
[48:35] to end war seeks removal of Iran's
[48:38] enriched uranium.
[48:41] Yes,
[48:42] we just have to find it
[48:46] unless uh they want to give it to us.
[48:48] 15-point plan. Where's the uranium?
[48:52] The uranium.
[48:56] Several Middle Eastern officials said
[48:57] the plan offered extensive sanctions
[48:59] relief to Iran in exchange
[49:02] for removal of highlyenriched uranium
[49:05] and
[49:07] the abandonment of the um enrichment pro
[49:11] uh capabilities limits to the ballist
[49:14] missile program ballistic missile
[49:15] program. They don't want limits.
[49:26] Ah.
[49:28] All right. Well,
[49:30] we shall see. So far, you know, markets
[49:34] at least decently happy today, which is
[49:36] good. Uh it's been it's been too long
[49:39] since we've had a good green day. So,
[49:41] we'll take a little bit of the optimism,
[49:43] but uh I I'd still maintain some
[49:45] caution. I do like the ADP report that
[49:47] we got yesterday suggesting we're not
[49:49] falling off a cliff yet, but I think
[49:51] some caution is still uh wise.
[49:54] Anyway, that's all I got for now. I'll
[49:56] see you in the next one. Thanks for
[49:57] being here, folks. Goodbye and good
[49:59] luck.