---
title: 'Stock Market & Iran Response'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=R29d4scahwU'
video_id: 'R29d4scahwU'
date: 2026-07-10
channel: 'Meet Kevin'
---

# Stock Market & Iran Response

> Source: [Stock Market & Iran Response](https://youtube.com/watch?v=R29d4scahwU)

## Summary

This video provides a real-time analysis of Iran's response to US proposals amid ongoing conflict, covering geopolitical tensions, market reactions, and economic implications. The host examines Iran's demands, including cessation of attacks, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and war reparations, while noting the ideological divide between Iran and the US/Israel. The discussion also touches on market performance, bond yields, and potential impacts on global energy and recession risks.

### Key Points

- **Iran's Response to US Proposal** [00:00] — Iran rejects US/Trump's timing for ending the war, demands end to attacks and assassinations, and insists on defensive operations until conditions are met. Iran reviewed a 15-point proposal from the US via Pakistan, considering it excessive.
- **Diametric Opposition on Missile Program** [02:53] — Trump and Israel want to eliminate Iran's missile program, while Iran sees it as its only deterrent for future attacks, creating a fundamental conflict.
- **Iran's Demands for Guarantees** [06:04] — Iran demands concrete guarantees preventing resurgence of war, payment for war damages, and recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
- **Pentagon Deploys Troops** [08:54] — Pentagon orders about 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne to the region, raising concerns about good faith in negotiations.
- **Volkswagen to Produce Iron Dome Components** [09:08] — Volkswagen is in talks with Israel's Rafael Advanced Defense Systems to switch production from cars to missile defense components for the Iron Dome, potentially saving 2,300 jobs.
- **Iran's Hardball Stance** [15:53] — Iran demands recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, implying continued control and taxation. Iran also wants end to attacks on resistance groups in Iraq and Lebanon.
- **Iran's Defiance and Ideological Play** [19:06] — Iran's military spokesman suggests US is negotiating with itself to escape strategic defeat, indicating an ideological struggle where Iran sees itself as the regional superpower.
- **SpaceX IPO Rumors** [25:56] — SpaceX may file for IPO confidentially as soon as this week, potentially raising over $75 billion, with no standard six-month lockup period, allowing insiders to sell immediately.
- **Market Cognitive Dissonance** [30:14] — Markets are gripped by cognitive dissonance: while energy shocks from the war could cause a recession, the S&P 500 remains near all-time highs. Bond yields are declining, indicating caution.
- **Credit Tightening Concerns** [42:11] — Barclays scales back asset-backed lending, and the SEC questions the integrity of credit ratings from Egan-Jones, signaling potential credit tightening that could precede a recession.

### Conclusion

The video concludes that Iran's rejection of the US proposal and its hardline stance, combined with ongoing military deployments and market cognitive dissonance, suggest prolonged geopolitical instability. The host advises caution despite short-term market optimism, as credit tightening and energy shocks pose recession risks.

## Transcript

Let's get this all fired up. Here we go.
Here we go. Got to talk about Iran's
response coming in hot off the tape. Uh
and uh sure enough, it's uh not ideal.
Good old uh Iranians not very happy with
wanting to make a deal with Trump, which
I mean to some extent it's hard to blame
the Iranians. uh you know we had a
ceasefire last year and you know you can
kind of uh look at it as um wow y'all
just uh took a year to sort of uh or 9
months to build up a bigger attack
against us huh so uh Iran uh just
responded
uh this is just now coming across the
tape so let's uh let's write this down
together here as uh as we sort of watch
the cues uh they just d dove down a
little bit here as usual our morning
momentum just can't really hold it.
Can't really keep it up. But Iran just
responded and said Iran will not allow
US Trump to dictate the timing of the
end of war. Uh we have uh Thrron
uh will continue uh defending itself.
Okay. Let's get the uh let's get the H
in there.
Okay.
Then I have
uh first Iranian condition
end attacks and assassinations. Those
are those targeted bombings.
Uh defensive operations
defensive operations will continue until
then. So, in other words, uh, aka don't
talk to us until you stop bombing us.
I mean, sounds reasonable, but also
implies that we're quite a bit further
away. Uh Iran reviewed the 15ount
proposal
uh point proposal
from uh US admin sent via uh Pakistan
uh considers the proposal
excessive.
Okay.
Iran will end the war at a time of
its own choosing if and only if
conditions are met.
All right, send that into the Meet Kevin
app there. So, not an ideal uh Iranian
response. Likely also unsurprising.
Keep in mind there's been a lot of talk
about the missile program.
Uh
it it seems Trump
uh and Israel want to keep fighting
until the missile program is eliminated.
uh whereas Iran
uh sees the mil missile program
as their only
uh deterrent
for future attacks and unlikely to
uh want to negotiate that missile
program away.
So that does create sort of this
diametric opposition between the two. Uh
which is pretty remarkable.
Okay, good. Let's go take a peek at
some of the other coverage coming out
out there.
So
see what we have. This is
uh let's see. Let's see. Let's see here.
Wow, that's crazy. Look at this missile
in a schoolyard.
As gas prices spike, California has hit
the hardest. Yep,
that's not a surprise. California has a
lot of additional taxes uh on top of uh
gasoline prices.
Yeah. and they still can't get that DHS
shutdown uh figured out which is also
quite remarkable.
Let's see what live updates we have
here. So the live blog suggests
general secretary of NATO is often
called the Trump whisperer able to mix
public flattery with private advice.
even called Trump and the alliances
daddy before last year's NATO summit.
All right. Israel's missiles have been
working to intercept.
UN calls this conflict an unprecedented
says this conflict has an unprecedented
power to unsnare countries across
borders and around the world. Right.
Well, I mean, if this goes on for too
long, I think it's everybody's pretty
well convinced this is a uh uh, you
know, recession inducing conflict, but
hopefully we, you know, we don't get
there.
Let's see here. US carrier.
Okay. Yeah, Trump says that 100 missiles
were fired towards the US carrier. The
military says a few missiles were fired
towards the carrier, but none of them
came close. They were all shot down. I'm
not sure sometimes where Donnie T gets
his numbers from, but there there's
generally not a lack of entertainment in
his storytelling.
Uh, Iran Iran demands establishment of
concrete guarantee preventing resurgence
of war. Uh,
yeah.
That's understandable
from the Iranian regime. Iranian regime
wants concrete guarantee
uh preventing resurgence of war. Yeah.
Totally reasonable.
ECB is prepared to raise interest rates
if the energy s shock spurred by the war
significantly pushes up inflation.
Christine Lagard said at a conference,
"We will not act before we have
sufficient information on the size of
the shock, but we will not be paralyzed
by hesitation."
That's an interesting line on uh on and
that's to some extent what markets are
pricing in now is I think we've got like
a 50% chance of a uh of a rate hike in
the United States as well.
Uh
right so
golly
says that Iran is closely monitoring
all US movements in the region. This
comes right after this talk about
deploying 2,000 paratroopers.
Oh, Iran is also demanding payment for
war damage.
Uh, Iran is also demanding payment for
war damages.
Uh, must be hard to negotiate when more
troops are being sent to the region. uh
implies uh negotiations may not be in
good faith
and that's that's a big concern is that
you know do the Iranians actually
believe the Trump administration is
negotiating in good faith. What do we
have here? Israel military issued sixth
warning of incoming missiles.
Property damage so far but no
fatalities. Jeez, what a mass.
It's sad.
All right,
intercepting more missiles. Yeah, lot
lot a lot of missiles and drones still
being fired.
China's foreign minister spoke with the
Iranian counterpart on Tuesday in a
phone call uh and he said that hoped he
hoped all sides would seize every
opportunity for peace. Right. Well, that
means nothing.
Pentagon has ordered about 2,000
soldiers from the 82nd Airborne.
It's a force of 3,000. So, they sent
2,000 of the three.
Okay, fine. Let's try uh the journal.
Oh, did you did you all see this
Volkswagen piece right here? Uh
Volkswagen
in talks with Israel's Iron Dome maker
uh to shift from cars to missile
defense.
That's pretty remarkable. That's sort of
like a Defense Production Act style work
here.
Volkswagen is in talks with Israel's
Raphael Advanced Defense System over a
deal that would switch production from
cars to missile defense.
ONAB. Wow. Planned to make components
for their Iron Dome system. Wow.
Profits have plunged in the car industry
thanks to German or Chinese competition.
Yeah,
understandable. They're hoping to save
all 2,300 jobs at the plant.
Let's go take a look at this. This isn't
far from where I've got family.
A castle garden. I want to go to a
castle garden.
Let's open this puppy up. I get it.
Yeah, there it is.
So,
yeah, just past Müster.
Interesting. So, and then also let's
type in Volkswagen plant.
Volkswagen Hall 81.
Oh, right by the railard. Look at that.
That's really cool.
Wow. This is like a Oh, yeah. Look at
all the cars on the on the rail. Oh,
that's awesome. A train station right
here. Taking all the Volkswagen cars
right out.
That's really cool. They got their own
train station.
Yeah, you can just take it from here and
go load them up onto a onto a track.
Yeah, look at that right here. That
almost looks like a ramp. See, they
could pull like the flatbed part of the
train right up and then you could
literally just drive the car
uh right onto the train.
That's my guess. Like this would be like
a loading track maybe. You know, goes
over here, backs up, and then you're
you're in here. Yeah. See, here's your
flat. That's very cool.
That's awesome.
Car factory reviews
super
car transporters.
Oh wow, look at that. They even mapped
it out.
There is no control. Call them and then
wait who knows how long. It's a mess.
Okay. Uh anyway, very interesting. So
this facility, the consideration
is to switch these folks from auto
manufacturing
to Iron Dome defense.
Wow.
major return to weaponry for Volkswagen
which produced military vehicles and the
V1 flying bomb for Hitler. Wait, what is
the V1 flying bomb? Oh, it's the world's
first operational cruise missile used by
Nazi Germany.
Wow.
So, it looks like a plane, but it's
actually just a bomb.
That's wild.
Various iron dome parts.
That is quite interesting.
All right. Well,
let's take a screenshot of that. I think
that's very interesting.
Grab that.
And uh
I'll make a little note on that. So this
is uh Israel
um potentially partnering with.
So Israel uh and Volkswagen
what what they say first time first time
since World War II that Volkswagen
uh made military uh components. Uh wait
but aren't they making military vehicles
still? Uh already makes military trucks.
Yeah.
Oh, this returns to a return to
weaponry. Ah, made uh weapons
would be the first time would be the
first time since World War II that
Volkswagen made weapon weapon components
possible. Uh VW US I want to steal the
uh
letters there. VW might become an iron
dome uh component maker for Israel.
And this is I think 20 what they say
2600 staff 2300 staff.
2300 staff.
Uh Volkswagen
made flying bomb. The V1
flying bomb in World War II.
What was that? The what they say? The
world's first cruise missile.
I think that's what we looked up.
It was world's first operational cruise
missile.
uh world's first operational cruise
missile uh which implies powered through
uh the duration of its flight, right?
Like if you compare to a ballistic uh
missile is only powered uh for a portion
of its flight and then uh the that's the
ballistic nature of the missile is it's
powered and then the rest is just the
arc. It's sort of like you lobbed it up
and then the rest is just basically
falling. Kind of interesting. Okay. Uh
all right. Iran's also coming out and
now saying
All right. There's a little bit more
here. So Iran demands,
let's write it down. Iran demands
recognition of Tran's sovereignty over
the strait
uh of Hormuz. That sort of implies that
they want to keep taxing it, right? Uh
implies Iran wants to keep taxing,
controlling,
permitting
uh the strait. I I don't I don't know
that the US is going to be okay with
that. Toron wants the end of the war.
Yeah. And also wants the end to the war
to resistance groups.
also wants uh Iraqi and
Lebanese uh resistance groups to stop
coming under fire. And a lot of this has
to do with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which
is just getting bombarded by uh by
Israel right now.
Okay, let's go to the journal.
So, Iran plays hard ball. I think that's
those are just sort of the updates that
we just got,
but we'll double check.
Iran suspected of directing attacks in
Europe. We'll have to take a look at
that.
All right. And then how how's the market
surviving? Uh the Q's recovered. Yeah,
after the statement came out from Iran,
you actually got a little bit of a
recovery here. Yeah, even on TLT.
All right,
let's jump into here. Yeah, dollar being
up on dis. Well, I mean, there's still
the expectation that rates in the United
States will be higher than anywhere else
in the world. uh because the US economy
is the strongest and so the dollar has
been moving up as sort of a trade
uh because of that anticipation that the
Fed might hike rates and we might end up
with some of the highest rates in the
world.
We're you know we've been pretty high on
rates so far relative to everyone else
as well.
Hey Kevin, how do you like that switch
from coffee to tea? I like it a lot. No,
it's a lot more moderate. So,
um, doesn't taste as bad as coffee. You
know, coffee is pretty bitter when you
just have it black, which I do. Uh, and,
uh, tea's not that bad at all.
Like, if you're used to that black
coffee bitterness, you don't mind
steeping your tea forever.
Doesn't get anywhere close to coffee.
Anyway, mediators from Turkey, Egypt,
Pakistan are pushing for a meeting
between the US and Iranians, but Tran
displayed defiance.
Right.
Uh Iran's military spokesman suggested
the US was negotiating with itself to
get out of strategic defeat.
Nice. How'd they say that?
Uh, comments relayed. Somebody like us
will never get along with somebody like
you. Not now. Not ever. Well, that's not
great.
That's Yeah. So, you know, basically
Iran is under the impression that
they're the boss of the region.
Uh
they're the boss of the region and the
regional superpower
uh with their military,
you know,
uh some quotes
uh on Iran.
Okay. So,
someone like us will never get along
with someone like you until you
understand stability in the region is
guaranteed by Iran's army.
Yeah, let's reword this a little bit.
But this is very interesting.
All of these here. So,
who was this again? This was a
comments related by the state news
agency.
Okay,
let's jot some of these down here
and snag the journal link.
Uh there's there's almost
an I like it's it's not about money
here. It's almost an ideological
uh play. Uh Iran wants to be the boss of
the region. Maybe that's why the Saudis
uh say keep going, seize the historic
opportunity
uh and remake the region. Right. Maybe
the Saudis are kind of tired of Iran,
too.
Nice. I tried that transition. Just feel
less productive. Need that caffeine
boost. Yeah. Yeah. You have to have more
tea. That's the problem. You know, it's
probably what it's probably like a 3:1
ratio. I mean, you're certainly going to
get more uh liquid intakes
that way, right? Uh most assembly plants
have trained right next to Yeah, makes
sense. PWTO was awesome to visit as a
kid in Wolfsburg. Oh, that's cool. We
talked about the dollar. War sucks. Lost
my dad during the invasion on Iraq in
03. That sucks. I'm sorry to hear that.
They call They called a forever war
against uh the West back when the first
catalyst, right, during the uh uh or
after the Israel invasion.
More tea. I hear you. Yeah, exactly.
More tea. Tired. more tea. What's up,
Tom? So,
yeah, I don't know. This is uh they they
seem diametrically opposed.
Uh this is this is so different than
uh feels so different
than negotiating uh money with China,
you know, tariffs. It's it's really
um how should I put it
built into the the belief that you know
Iran is the superpower of the region.
What is this? Iran suspected of
directing attacks in Europe creating
bogus group to claim responsibility.
Authorities are investigating Iran's
involvement in a string of terrorist
attacks in Europe that have targeted
Jewish sites.
Uh
yeah,
apparently the Islamic Movement of
Righteous Companions
potentially made up.
Wow.
charred remains of an ambulance in
London. Oh yeah. Wow.
So
March 23rd, a group claimed
responsibility for torching a car in the
Jewish district of Antworp
ambulance in London.
Dutch authorities on the 22nd said they
foiled an attack on a synagogue.
multiple explosive devices were
discovered. Belgian investigators are
examining whether incidents on their
soil were directed by Iran or if dormant
cells were activated. See, nobody wants
to hear that. This whole like
sleeper cell
concern. None of that is good.
Yeah,
refugees from the Middle East have been
arrested carrying addresses and
photographs of Israeli targets. Oh, wow.
Look at that. So, you've got Palestinian
and Lebanese militias linked people as
well as European-born criminals and
refugees from the Middle East have been
arrested carrying addresses and
photographs of Israeli targets.
Wow.
War sucks.
Uh, okay. So,
what else we got here? Gives us a little
bit of cover here on
Iran.
Okay, let's go look at the info because
I know there's some talk about
potentially moving up the SpaceX IPO.
2-year Treasury at 388. Pretty stable,
actually.
And
oh, we're still down on the 10-year
Treasury. 3.34. That's good. That's
good. Look at that. Back over 590 here
on the cues.
trying to get back to 400 on Tesla.
Okay.
AMD had a great bounce right off of uh
200. It's up like what is it at? Two
Yeah, it's at about 220 now. It's about
a 10% bounce off the 200 line. We were
talking about that in the alpha report
yesterday. Okay. So,
Meta Platform, more layoffs. So many
layoffs. It it's remarkable how we could
get all these layoffs and then we still
got the ADP report yesterday that
uh you know we grew 10,000 jobs for the
week ending March 7th. Still remarkable
to me. What was the President Trump got?
Well, it was never clearly articulated,
but the assumption was that it had to do
with non-hostile ships being able to
trans um transit the straight of Hermuz
that uh that announcement was sort of
the uh the promise to Trump, if you
will.
Could have been something else, but
that's what uh seems to be the current
thought. Okay. Yeah. Here's the IPO
filing talk.
Let's take a look at this. So, this is
the SpaceX
rumor basically. And the rumor now is
that SpaceX might try to IP file their
IPO confidentially as soon as this week
or next week, which basically means Elon
is trying to press this along as fast as
humanly possible.
Yeah, this isn't going to happen. Uh,
Iran
Iran demands
determination and guarantee
guaranteed payment
for war damage.
Yeah right.
Do you imagine Trump paying them?
Okay,
so
maybe that's why more troops are coming.
Advisers involved in the preparation
predict the company could try to raise
more than $75 billion.
Wow. Uh
that would raise that would surpass all
money raised by US IPOs last year. Holy
smokes. Going to be the largest IPO for
a long time. SpaceX filings may show it
losing money after absorbing XAI,
but many investment firms are reluctant
to bet against Musk. Yep, true.
SpaceX individual investor portion might
exceed 20%, final numbers left to left
or um yet to be finalized. The company
will not have a standard six-month
lockup period. Wow.
The rule prevents insiders from selling
shares all at once, depressing a stock
price. Sounds to me like Elon Elon might
need to raise some money himself.
The arrangement is still being sorted
out. Wow.
No lockup either, so you can instantly
dump.
All right. So, let's go back over here.
We've got the Q's
roughly where we opened, you know,
roughly a little lower there on TLT, but
roughly where we opened.
Okay,
let's see.
Let's go to the FT. And then, you know
what? Maybe even the Economist. Let's
see what the Economist has for us. So
the economist this morning says markets
are gripped by cognitive dissonance.
Tell me what you mean.
Uh
what a battle for reopening her moose
would look like.
Painful.
And take a quick look at that.
Marco Rubian the chameleon in the war
room.
Uh,
all right. Let's grab this one as well.
Okay. See what we have here. So, Trump's
latest climb down suggests he wants to
end the war.
This was the five-day pause. Less than
an hour later, the IDF said planes were
currently striking targets.
Uh but Trump also claimed that America
was in talks with Iran about a complete
and total resolution.
Trump did the rounds.
But Trump's climb down could also
suggest a signal a divergence in Israel
and America's goals. Oh yeah, totally.
Israel wants to keep this thing going.
You know, they this is an opportunity
for them. Critical step towards
neutralizing Iran's military threat is
Israel's point of view. Nuclear program,
ballistic missile program. They don't
want to end this, but you know, Trump's
kind of got wrapped into this where I he
probably thinks he can't really leave
Israel hanging right now.
Trump's focus is trying to avoid the
global energy crisis, hence the
optimism. I agree with that.
Uh let's see here.
American and Israeli war planners did
not begin the war thinking Trump would
be in it for the long run. His record
suggests a preference for speedy, flashy
operations like Maduro. Yeah. Or last
summer with the B2 bombers.
Israeli ministers began to believe that
Trump would stick with it as long as
Israel wanted.
On the 22nd, Israel said that they were
only halfway through
and it would continue through
basically April 8th.
uh
Trump's how long it's going and Trump's
latest climb down undermine the idea
that Iran is fragile.
True. True. I mean, they've they've held
up.
Okay.
Reopen the straight
three-phase plan.
Hunting down military assets from the
Iranians is one.
The hunters are mainly aircraft but may
soon include ground troops. The second
phase is sweeping for mines.
And the last one
would be escorting.
Each stage could take several weeks. So
it's possible that's why troops are
going to the region as well.
Yeah, Robert, sorry you're dealing with
transmission issues. It's, you know, it
seems like once a car starts going down
the path of needing repairs, you fix one
thing and then another thing breaks, it
it it's really annoying and frustrating.
Um, but it's also it's tough to to go
down to one car, right? Maybe it works
for your situation, but what I see a lot
of people do in this situation is, you
know, they end up getting they sell a
car, they feel good, they pay off debt,
and then, you know, 3 months later
they're at a car dealership going into
even way more debt than they had before.
So, it almost makes me wonder, you know,
is there like a used Corolla or
something that that you could buy? Uh I
wonder how much those puppies are
selling for these days. Used Toyota
Corolla. Oh, man. Man, look at that.
11,000 mi. Carvana Ventura. I'm at 23K.
Yeah, but that's a lot here. For 9
grand, 10 grand, I could get a 67,000
milei Corolla,
man. For under for under a rack of 10.
And what year is this puppy? I know it's
67,000 miles.
You basically got a selfie of this
person. Anyway, uh 2017 uh that's kind
of old. Yeah, that's already 9 years
old. But uh
I think there are plenty of good deals
of cars out there. Just have to kind of
look around.
How much is a new Corolla these days?
Toyota Corolla.
Not that necessarily have to get new,
but I just want to see the delta. Like
how much you actually saving. Uh, so
view dealer inventory. Sure, whatever.
Let's see.
And then we'll get back to So, oh wow.
Yeah, they're 24,000 bucks on the low
end,
you know. Then you got delivery fees and
taxes and all the crap. It's $30 30
grand before you're out the door. It's a
lot.
I mean, at that point, yeah, you're
right. If you're going to spend 30 grand
on a Corolla, you know, what is a used
Tesla Model 3 look like?
Let's see. Vehicles
pre-owned inventory.
Model 3.
Wow, look at that.
2018 Model 3, 17 grand, 87,000 miles. I
mean, those are a lot of miles.
You're going to have fewer service
issues but
some of these are old. What if I wanted
something that was newer?
Like, I don't know, give me something
that's like 2023.
2023 23K. That's still less than than
the new Corolla
and some of the newer used ones. 35,000
uh miles. It's not bad at all. Still
pretty dang new.
Yeah. But wait, includes include
estimated there. Uh 25. Yeah. Once you
all
Yeah. Anyway. All right. All right. So,
where were we? So, we looked at this. We
looked at this. What do we have here?
Markets are gripped by an alarming
cognitive dissonance. Okay. So, we
talked about Trump. We talked about how
to reopen the straight. Now, we're
looking at this cognitive dissonance.
Every buyer needs a seller.
Uh, let's see here. For now,
let's see here. No one knows when the
straight will reopen.
blah blah blah.
Come on. Should a nightmare scenario
unfold with the Gulf War lasting months
or years? An energy shock plunging the
world into recession? That would be bad.
That would be the night scenario.
Nightmare scenario. Share prices have
fallen but on big bonuses and having a
correction territory.
America's S&P 500 is still within a few%
of all-time high.
Many of the people who are bidding it
there meanwhile are sitting mere deaths
away from commodity analysts discussing
the the disast disastrous consequences
for the world. Right? So basically
there's this idea of like hey if this
keeps going on
the energy shock will go will push the
world into a nasty recession. Meanwhile
the S&P 500 is just a few points from
alltime highs. So, how do you have both
of these going on? Basically, that's
what the economist is saying here. What
on earth is going on?
Well, that's why I I look at the bond
market, too. I I I really try to pay
attention to the bond market more than
just the movement and the cues or
whatever.
All right. Well, the economists didn't
really have a conclusion for it. It
seems like they were just sort of
observing it. Uh you've got here
still a decline in a 10-year though.
You're down 6.4 basis points now, right?
That's uh that's pretty wild.
Which in a positive way and that's
despite even the two years down and
that's despite them uh you know
announcing that uh you know they're not
interested in in our deal.
Uh oil still sitting at about a hundred
bucks on Brent. Okay, let's go take a
peek at the FT. What's the FT got for
us?
Tumbling gold prices have put haven
status in doubt.
Yeah.
Let's see here.
War empties Dubai malls rattles
struggling luxury industry.
Yeah.
Okay. Not much actually on the FT here.
I mean, the Volkswagen piece over here
was very interesting,
but not much uh majorly new here. Let's
try the doomers.
Doomers.
They want reparations. New York City
possible strike by 34,000.
Let's see here. Saudi
Saudi surges oil exports.
They get, you know, that's the other
thing with the Saudis. if you think
about it is
they might benefit
quite substantially actually
uh from uh these higher oil prices.
So,
uh,
the longer the war goes on,
longer the war goes on, the more Saudis
can sell expensive oil.
Little jaded probably.
Oops. I think I put that in
yesterday's piece. Let me put that
up here
where we were talking about the Saudis
as well.
Okay,
Arlay. Yeah, th this is that credit
tightening by the way that's happening
right here.
Barclays is scaling back its assets back
assetbacked lending.
British bank is focusing shifting focus
to loans and securizations for larger
corporates as opposed to basically
private credit.
Uh downfall of MFS and subprime lender
have put a spotlight on lending to
non-bank entities.
Yeah, much of this lending is private
without input from ratings firms. And I
think there was also a a note from the
SEC questioning ratings lately.
Let me see here.
Yep, here it is. SEC raises questions
over rating agency behind private credit
boom. whether Egan and Jones, the small
credit rating provider, had come under
fire for its grades on private credit
loans,
whether or not they can consistently
produce credit ratings with integrity.
Yikes.
Raises questions
about the adequacy of their managerial
resources.
Hey, yeah, we'll give you a rating.
We'll just slap it on there. Just pay us
more.
Banks often provide uh warehouse
facilities to non-banks to fund lending
products which are packaged into asset
back securities and sold to investors.
Uh
blah blah blah blah blah. Yeah, this
sort of credit tightening though,
it takes a while to show up on like the
St. Louis Fed. St. Louis Fred credit
tightening, but once it does it it's
usually not great. It's just Yeah. See,
right now you're not actually showing
that. This is on credit cards. Credit
cards you're basically flat. So, you're
not seeing any tightening. You usually
see tightening going into the recessions
at the start of recessions. So, you're
not seeing that yet. Tightening
standards,
commercial and industrial loans. Yeah,
it's still not showing up over here. And
this seems to be monthly, quarterly
data. Oh, so it it'll take a while to
really show up into in stuff like this.
You won't really get uh that information
timely.
Uh let's see here. What else?
Egypt's foreign minister says we have a
plan to continue efforts.
Yeah.
And we got the Iran update earlier.
All right, let's go take a look at the
market again.
Uh, okay. Look at this. So, this is TLT.
Nice recovery here as yields are coming
down helping uh helping loft up stocks
which is very good.
And uh
what else is going on out there? Let's
go take a peek at uh let's go to like
axios or political. Let's go look at
those for a moment. Iran rejects the
15point plan. Yes, that we know.
Iran suspects peace talk is just another
trick. Yeah, we talked about that
yesterday. This this fear which to some
extent is rational that Iranians have
told mediators
that the US's military movement
increased suspicion that this proposal
is just a ruse.
Trump has a hand open for a deal and the
other is a fist waiting to punch you in
the effing face.
Uh, okay. That was a Trump adviser who
said that. Yeah. Come here. Come here.
Take it. Take it. Take it. Boom. Pow.
I could see that.
Yeah, that's that's a useful quote.
And then we have the rejection over
here. This is what we just covered.
Yeah. Getting the compensation part is
going to be wild. But also, it's not
just that.
It's compensation and it's also the
ballistic missile program. Those are
going to be issues.
So then uh let's try political. Oh,
sometimes Wapo has something too.
Try both.
Uh let's see.
Lawmakers introduced bill to prohibit
members of Congress and the president
from trading in prediction markets.
Yeah. Well, good luck getting anything
passed in Congress right now.
housing crypto trade. House Republicans
shoot it down. House Republicans are
rejecting a proposal of accepting the
Senate's housing package in exchange for
the upper chamber, including uh
basically you know the Clarity Act.
Yeah, I don't think they're going to get
anything passed anymore this year.
Trump showed classified map
to passengers on his pl private plane.
Yeah, I mean I I think Donald Trump does
not believe any rules really apply to
him. So I I I don't doubt that Iran. But
I also
that's not the topic for today. US plan
to end war seeks removal of Iran's
enriched uranium.
Yes,
we just have to find it
unless uh they want to give it to us.
15-point plan. Where's the uranium?
The uranium.
Several Middle Eastern officials said
the plan offered extensive sanctions
relief to Iran in exchange
for removal of highlyenriched uranium
and
the abandonment of the um enrichment pro
uh capabilities limits to the ballist
missile program ballistic missile
program. They don't want limits.
Ah.
All right. Well,
we shall see. So far, you know, markets
at least decently happy today, which is
good. Uh it's been it's been too long
since we've had a good green day. So,
we'll take a little bit of the optimism,
but uh I I'd still maintain some
caution. I do like the ADP report that
we got yesterday suggesting we're not
falling off a cliff yet, but I think
some caution is still uh wise.
Anyway, that's all I got for now. I'll
see you in the next one. Thanks for
being here, folks. Goodbye and good
luck.