---
title: '40-Year Trading Veteran Reveals Massive Crypto Prediction'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=3O3ySBPSJHE'
video_id: '3O3ySBPSJHE'
date: 2026-08-06
duration_sec: 594
---

# 40-Year Trading Veteran Reveals Massive Crypto Prediction

> Source: [40-Year Trading Veteran Reveals Massive Crypto Prediction](https://youtube.com/watch?v=3O3ySBPSJHE)

## Summary

The video discusses the current state of Bitcoin, which is facing three consecutive red quarters for only the fourth time in its history. It features insights from veteran investors Mike Novogratz and Brad Garlinghouse on whether this signals a bottom or a dead asset, and explores the integration of Bitcoin into traditional finance through products like the first Fannie Mae-backed Bitcoin mortgage and yield-generating ETFs.

### Key Points

- **Bitcoin's Rare Three Red Quarters** [00:02] — Bitcoin is about to close three straight red quarters, a phenomenon that has only occurred three times before (2014, 2019, 2022), each followed by major crashes (76%, 69%, 66%). Currently, Bitcoin is down about 50%, suggesting a possible final capitulation.
- **200-Week Moving Average Break** [00:55] — Bitcoin has crossed below the 200-week moving average, a signal that buyers didn't step up, historically indicating further drops in the coming months.
- **Veteran Investors' Perspectives** [01:20] — Anthony Scaramucci and Mike Novogratz, 40-year investing veterans, share their views. Novogratz suggests giving Bitcoin the benefit of the doubt until March next year, expecting a recovery as the Fed may cut rates.
- **On-Chain Indicators** [01:33] — Google searches for Bitcoin are down, long-term holders control a record 79% of circulating supply, and reactivation of old coins is at its lowest since 2012, indicating weak selling pressure and a potential bottom.
- **Novogratz's Timeline** [03:42] — Novogratz advises long-term holders not to sell at $60k, suggesting Bitcoin should recover by March next year; if not, something fundamental has changed.
- **Macro Tailwinds** [04:08] — Governments continue to inflate money supply, and Bitcoin is being integrated into traditional finance, e.g., the first Fannie Mae-backed Bitcoin mortgage closed in Michigan, allowing borrowers to pledge BTC without triggering capital gains taxes.
- **Ripple's Advocacy** [05:20] — Ripple is running a Capitol Hill ad campaign urging lawmakers to pass the Clarity Act. CEO Brad Garlinghouse comments on Bitcoin's sell pressure, attributing it to leverage and financial engineering, and emphasizes utility as the driver of long-term value.
- **Michael Saylor's Stance** [06:43] — Despite pressure, Michael Saylor continues to buy Bitcoin, signaling he won't change strategy. This may lead to market adjustments without resolution on his leveraged positions.
- **Bitcoin as Boring Utility** [08:25] — BlackRock's yield-generating Bitcoin ETF offers 27% annual yield from volatility, not price speculation. This allows institutions to profit regardless of price direction, making Bitcoin 'boring' but permanent.
- **Bitcoin as Digital Gold** [09:22] — Bitcoin has carved out a space as digital gold, with the ability to move billions quickly compared to physical gold, as seen with Germany's gold transfer.

### Conclusion

The video suggests that despite current bearish signals, Bitcoin's integration into traditional finance and macro tailwinds may lead to a recovery by March next year. Veteran investors advise patience, while new financial products make Bitcoin a stable, yield-generating asset.

## Transcript

expression of be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are greedy. >> Bitcoin is about to close three straight red quarters in a row. This has only happened three times in
This has only happened three times in crypto history in 2014, in 2019, and in crypto history in 2014, in 2019, and in 2022. Maybe now, but in 2014, Bitcoin 2022. Maybe now, but in 2014, Bitcoin crashed 76% in 2019, the bear market,
Bitcoin crashed 69%. In 2022, the FTX collapse, after three In 2022, the FTX collapse, after three straight quarters, Bitcoin crashed 66%. time again. Bitcoin is currently down only around
Bitcoin is currently down only around 50%. So, there is a case to be made. Maybe we do need one final capitulation-like moment to bring us down to how far we're usually down. You also could see this in where we are
right now with the 200-week moving average. We've crossed below. Last time we've crossed below, meaning we couldn't support it. The buyers didn't step up. Last time we saw this, we had a a little bit more of a drop to go in the coming
months. Yet, here's what's interesting. months. Yet, here's what's interesting. Every single time after Bitcoin bottomed within the next one to two quarters and started a new major rally, Anthony
Scaramucci and Mike Novogratz, 40-year investing veterans, each had some very for Bitcoin. >> for Bitcoin is now at an all-time low.
Google searches for Bitcoin are way down, and we have now drawn through the 50% peak to trough. Long-term holders now control a record 79% of circulating supply,
and reactivation of old coins is at its lowest level since 2012. Is that a sign of weak selling pressure that we are at a bottom? Michael, you've been doing this for almost 40 years. Or is that a sign that this is a dead
asset? >> Yeah, it's a painful question. I think you got to give Bitcoin the benefit of the doubt. Uh at least until this time next year. If I'm saying about that is like
through 60, of course we could. People are so vested in this over the last 15 years. It's a It's a life for people that most of those And it will get its narrative back. The narrative is the Fed will be cutting
rates at one point. There's just very with the populism we're talking about, actually get ourselves out of the financial mess we're in and then we the narrative comes back. And it's really a good brand. It just has no
energy right now. There no new buyers. Uh there's no And and Michael Saylor's You know, he's got this preferred instrument that's now trading way below par. And Now, he doesn't have to do anything, but
there's all this pressure for him to do something. And we'll see how that plays out. That's weighing a lot on Bitcoin. Bitcoin. He's the biggest holder of Bitcoin. He's the biggest advocate. And
I don't think it's in a great space uh right now. I don't advocate selling at 60 uh if you're a long-term holder. back in in October. Uh
maybe right when the economy's slowing enough that we're able to cut rates uh cut rates, you know, at the end of the year, beginning of next year. And so I Bitcoin, you got to give it to March of next year. If it hasn't come back by
then, maybe you scratch your head and say, "Did I miss something?" to throw in the towel. >> So basically what 40-year investing expert Mike Novogratz is saying is Bitcoin could take a few more months,
but it should be back by March of next year. If it is not back, then something changed. I personally think it will be back. Number one, because the governments globally continue to inflate the money supply. That has not changed,
number one. So, Bitcoin's use case, utility, nothing's changed. And number two, Bitcoin and crypto continue to be baked into the traditional system. Case in point, the first Fannie Mae-backed Bitcoin mortgage has closed in the
A couple in Michigan bought their first home by pledging Bitcoin as collateral instead of selling it, making it the first Fannie Mae-backed mortgage using crypto in US history. So, typically, in order to buy
a home, you would have to sell the asset. Now, with stocks, you can borrow against your stock portfolio in the traditional system. This is now finally legal or regulated and happening. With Bitcoin, that is major. That is This is
the start of something. Borrowers can pledge BTC or USDC stablecoin without triggering capital gains taxes, with no margin calls, even if price drops.
Better Mortgage, I guess is the company, is protecting $250 million in initial loan volume with a nationwide rollout plan for this summer, meaning this is the start of something. We also know that Ripple XRP is still putting big
money around Washington D.C. We see their little trucks. Just in, Ripple is running a Capitol Hill ad campaign, including a branded truck with "On the road to clarity" urging lawmakers to pass the Clarity
Act. I thought it was very interesting what Ripple CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, said about why Bitcoin is seeing sell pressure, and also what comes next for crypto. Let's watch then react. >> Um, so when they were a seller for the
that got a lot of notice. Do you think that started something? and it you know, I think the challenge is it it added some excitement on the way up and now that's compounding on the way down as well. And so as we have
seen, cryptos go is going to go through its cycles. Many asset classes do that. leverage, you know, they it Michael Saylor would characterize it differently than leverage per se, but at the end of the day it was leverage and then you
start to see that in a place that can actually compound negatively. I mean, seeing their the particular thing they have pegged at a hundred now trade I >> Yeah. >> is a pretty damning indictment and I
don't think that's helped the market. >> By the way, just in, Michael Saylor does not give an F. He tweets, "We're going to need more charts." This is something he typically tweets out every Sunday, an orange dot to signal another Bitcoin buy
is coming. So he's not using that money to buy back the stock, put into the preferred stock dividends. He continues to be a maniac and buy more Bitcoin. Interesting. To me that signals we will not have a resolution on is
be fine, but the question is will he have to sell a big chunk of Bitcoin, sell the the common stock, whatever his plan is? To me that signals we have Saylor doing nothing different and we're going to have to let the market adjust.
>> Yeah, a ticker if the booth is wondering, that would be STRC which have been there's been a lot of ink spilled on how Saylor protects the preferred, protects the the currency and protects the equity. Do you think one
>> Look, I I I actually think what should come first is focusing on what's going to drive long-term value. And I think that financial engineering does not drive long-term value. I I said actually on CNBC five or six years ago that I
digital asset is going to be driven by utility. And if it's solving a problem at scale for real customers, you're going to see liquidity, you're going to see demand, you're going to see trust in that asset. Those things compound in a
trying to financial engineer and leverage and borrow more money to buy know, look, I'm bullish on Bitcoin. I think I subscribe to the Warren Buffett greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. Now is the time I think uh be
greedy, but I also think uh I think team Michael Saylor wasn't hurt the overall market. >> I think Brad Garlinghouse saying financial engineering of financial products, that's not real utility. I
would personally disagree. It's a product. Financial products are utility. For example, it's not just Michael Saylor, BlackRock has made Bitcoin boring in the best way possible. You know this BITA, this is their version of
an income ETF. A yield-generating Bitcoin ETF offers 27% yield annually from volatility, not price speculation. So it is a different mechanism in that sense. Why this
matters to you or just what this does. Institutions don't need Bitcoin to pump to profit anymore. They profit whether it moves up, down, or sideways, right? They profit on the volatility. That means every wealth manager in
America is about to have a very interesting conversation with their clients. And how this affects you just means that Bitcoin is sort of boring now, but it's not going away. It's being baked into the traditional system.
>> So what do you think the utility of Bitcoin is now? >> Well, Bitcoin has definitely carved out I think a space as digital gold. And you about when the Central Bank of Germany was moving $300 of gold, It took two
it. If you wanted to move 300 billion dollars of Bitcoin, you could do that quick way. >> Altcoin Daily keeps you updated on crypto with one video per day. It's going to be a very big week. Click
going to be a very big week. Click subscribe to stay informed.