---
title: 'Jobs Report Surprises Again… No Rate Cuts Now?'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=G0DtzLWAlfg'
video_id: 'G0DtzLWAlfg'
date: 2026-08-01
duration_sec: 621
---

# Jobs Report Surprises Again… No Rate Cuts Now?

> Source: [Jobs Report Surprises Again… No Rate Cuts Now?](https://youtube.com/watch?v=G0DtzLWAlfg)

## Summary

The video breaks down the surprising March 2026 jobs report, which showed 178,000 jobs added despite prior downward revisions and a choppy labor market. It explains why strong employment figures and rising energy prices have pushed market odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut to 0%, and examines AI's growing role in job cuts and the political pressure around the new Fed chair nominee.

### Key Points

- **Strong March Jobs Print** [00:17] — 178,000 net jobs were added in March, better than any month in 2025 or 2026, but February was revised downward from 92,000 lost to 133,000 lost.
- **A Choppy Labor Market** [01:40] — Recent monthly job numbers swing wildly: +178k in March, -133k in February, +160k in January, and -140k in October.
- **Sector Breakdown** [01:53] — Healthcare added 76,000 jobs (boosted by ~70,000 returning strikers), construction +26,000, transportation and warehousing +21,000, while federal jobs fell by 18,000.
- **Unemployment Falls to 4.3%** [02:33] — The unemployment rate dropped from 4.4% in February to 4.3% in March, removing a key Fed incentive to cut rates.
- **Wage Growth Slows** [03:12] — Wage growth plummeted to 3.5% from 3.8% in February, and with money supply growing above 10%, purchasing power is being eroded.
- **AI Is Now the Top Cause of Job Cuts** [03:54] — Announced job cuts in March were 60,620, up 25% from February. AI was the leading reason at 15,341, followed by store closings (13,931), restructurings (8,726), and market conditions (6,597).
- **Rapid Rise in AI-Related Cuts** [04:21] — AI accounted for 25% of March job cuts, up from 1% in 2023, 2% in 2024, and 5% in 2025.
- **Rate Cut Odds Collapse to 0%** [06:28] — For the April 29 Fed meeting, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 99.5% chance of holding rates, a 0% chance of a cut, and a 0.5% chance of a hike.
- **Fed Chair Nominee Dilemma** [08:53] — Kevin Warsh has been nominated by Trump to be the next Fed chair, with a Senate hearing on April 16. He is expected to push for rate cuts, but rising inflation and a stable labor market make cuts hard to justify.

### Conclusion

The Fed is effectively trapped: inflation pressures and a stable unemployment rate leave no justification for rate cuts, despite political pressure from the White House. Expect heightened volatility in rate expectations and labor-market data through 2026.

## Transcript

labor markets. The jobs report came out and it was surprisingly good, like Reserve in a very difficult situation. So, I want to tell you what happens. net jobs were added for the month of March, and I want you to think about
that because if the labor market is doing so well, then how can the Federal Reserve justify an interest rate cuts? So, we're going to take a look at the shortly. Okay, here are the number of net jobs
added or lost by month. And as you can see, 178,000 jobs added in 1 month is That's better than any month that we had in 2025 and also so far in 2026.
to bring to your attention. If we look back 1 month to the previous February, when they released the jobs report, the government said that the labor market lost 92,000 jobs. So, that was the
However, it's now been, you know, as expected, revised downward. Now, they're saying that the US labor market didn't lose 92,000 jobs in February, they revised it downward to 133,000 jobs lost.
mean, this was expected. So, for this whole 178,000 jobs added in March, important for you to maintain a healthy
take a look at the labor market from a high-level overview, I mean, it's clearly a choppy labor markets with every report a surprise now. every report a surprise now. An alleged 178,000 jobs gained in March,
An alleged 178,000 jobs gained in March, 133,000 jobs lost in February, 160,000 133,000 jobs lost in February, 160,000 jobs added in January, 140,000 lost in October. I mean, it's all over the place. It's swinging wildly.
Now, for March, I just want you to know that it was the jobs number the number of jobs added was boosted by the fact that healthcare workers came back from strike and added approximately 70,000 jobs.
So for the healthcare sector, that was responsible for 76,000 jobs added. Construction added 26,000 jobs. Transportation and warehousing added Transportation and warehousing added 21,000 jobs. Federal jobs lost were
18,000. Now, it's very important that you pay close attention to this data Because Okay, the reason why I'm saying that is because the Federal Reserve has repeatedly said that this data point the unemployment rates is the most important
for them for making their decisions. For the month of March, the unemployment For the month of March, the unemployment rates has now fallen to 4.3%. That's an improvement from 4.4% in February and 4.6%
So from the perspective of the Federal Reserve, if the unemployment rates is rising, then that's incentive for them to cut interest rates to save the labor markets. But because it's not rising,
I mean, they have no reason to cut interest rates, at least not a good one. And here I want to show you the wage growth. So this is This is not a pretty picture. For the month of March, wage growth
For the month of March, wage growth plummeted to 3.5% from 3.8% in February. So this is not good. I You can clearly see the trend. Wages are growing at a slower pace. And in my previous video, I showed you that money
supply is growing at a rate of greater than 10%. And here we are with wages than 10%. And here we are with wages growing at a rate of 3.5%. So this just means more erosion in our purchasing power. Now, I want to show
released a few days ago in April covering the month of March. And I found this very interesting as it shows that job cuts in March are up by 25% compared to February. US-based employers announced 60,620
job cuts in March. And the leading reason for job cuts is now artificial intelligence, so AI. In March, AI was the leading cause for job cuts at 15,341.
job cuts at 15,341. Then came store closings at 13,931, Then came store closings at 13,931, restructurings at 8,726, and market and economic conditions at 6,597.
that this is wild. 25% of job cuts were due to AI. In 2023, it was 1% of all job cuts. In 2024, it was responsible for 2%. In 2025, 5%. And here we are in
March, AI being the reason for 25% job cuts. before, this is this is just going to become more disruptive for the labor market. Now, I want to show you this, and it's
going to be easier for you to just see it for yourself. So, you see how in 2022, there were so many jobs being added each month. Like 200,000 jobs a month was nothing special. Some months were 400,000 jobs
special. Some months were 400,000 jobs added, 700,000 jobs, 800,000 jobs. And then, as you can see, it started to really taper off in 2023 and 2024. Each month, jobs added of 100,000 to 200,000 became the new norm, which is,
you know, still great. With some months being slightly more or less. And then 2025 and 2026, like in this time frame, we don't even know if we're going to have jobs added
or jobs lost for the month. So, clearly, in terms of jobs added, the difficulties. And then, we compare that jobs growth to job openings, and this is what we see. This is data from the JOLTS reports. It
covers the past 25 years or so. And our focus is here over the past 4 years. And as you can see, in terms of job openings, it peaked in 2022. And then we see a steady decline in 2023 and 2024.
2025. And we're Of course, we're so early into 2026. But yes, of course, the data is corresponding fewer job openings and slower job growth. All right, now let's
take a look at the odds of an interest rate cut after the release of this jobs FedWatch tool. And this is for the upcoming meeting on April 29th. Okay, so a month ago, there was an 11% chance that the Federal Reserve would
cut interest rates by a quarter points at this upcoming meeting. Today, the odds of an interest rate cut now stand at 0%. As a matter of fact, it's a 99.5% chance that the Federal Reserve just maintains
rates, like they don't do anything. And there's a 0.5% chance that they actually raise interest rates. Okay, so what happens? Why did the odds change so dramatically over the past month? It's because of the rising energy
prices, which is expected to increase the rate of inflation, which is not good And because of a really good jobs reports, you know, allegedly, and the falling unemployment rates. So I want you to think about that
because if inflation is above targets and increasing, then how can they cut interest rates? Because if they cut interest rates, that's inflationary. And then they would just be adding more fuel to the inflationary fire.
suffering, then again, they can't cut interest rates. They would only cut interest rates to rescue a deteriorating labor markets. And well, from what we see, there's no deterioration. Now, let's take a look at
the subsequent meeting on June 17th. There's a 97.5% chance that the Federal Reserve just maintains rates here and remains at a Fed funds interest rate of 3.75%.
There's a 2% chance that the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter And there's a 0.5% chance that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by And let me show you the next meeting on July 29th. So, funny enough, the
meeting. 97.5% chance that they keep rates the same, 2% chance that they cut interest rates, and a 0.5% chance that they raise interest rates. And this is the last meeting that I want
This is the meeting on September 16th. So, this is more than 6 months out. And it's a 92.2% chance that the rates are the same by then. A 1.9% chance that
they cut interest rates by a quarter point by that meeting. And a 5.9% chance that they actually raise interest rates by a quarter points by then. But, as you can see, the overwhelming
expectation is that we're not going to see an interest rate cut for a while. Okay, here's where it gets really tricky Reserve. President Trump has nominated Kevin
Warsh to be the next Fed chair. If approved by the Senate, then Kevin chair in mid-May. And as you know, President Trump demands lower interest rates. And I suspect, along with many other people, that Trump
only considered candidates that would lower interest rates. interest rates in this environment with a rising rate of inflation and a labor market that does not need rescuing? So,
ultimately, what I'm trying to say is like, do you see the problem here? President Trump put in the new Fed chair to cut interest rates, but how can he to be a very interesting dialogue between
them. Like, let's see what happens. And if Warsh doesn't cut interest rates probably at the first meeting, then you know that President Trump's going to be so upset. Anyways, the Senate Banking Committee's
going to hold their nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh on April 16th. So, you ask me for my opinion, I'll tell you this. I mean, you saw the data. You see looking for a job, like you're in between jobs, then you see it for
yourself first hand. But now with rising energy prices, and destruction, I expect the economy and also for the labor market just to expectation. I mean, you can let me know yours.
Thank you so much. Please subscribe, and I wish you a very nice day. Take care.