---
title: 'SMB Capital AM Meeting November 6th'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=DGpoZFADv8U'
video_id: 'DGpoZFADv8U'
date: 2026-08-10
duration_sec: 1135
channel: 'SMB Capital'
---

# SMB Capital AM Meeting November 6th

> Source: [SMB Capital AM Meeting November 6th](https://youtube.com/watch?v=DGpoZFADv8U)

## Summary

In this SMB Capital AM meeting from November 6th, the trader analyzes the current market conditions, focusing on momentum stocks like Tesla, Roku, and Trade Desk following their earnings reports. He provides detailed technical analysis, including key support and resistance levels, potential trade setups, and discusses the importance of pre-market volume and gap behavior in determining intraday direction.

### Key Points

- **Market Overview and Chasing** [00:13] — The market has moved quickly from 325 to 352, with a lot of chasing. A pullback is due, and the trader advises against chasing at these levels, suggesting buying into dips rather than chasing highs.
- **Jobs Number Pop** [02:09] — After the jobs number, the market popped up another dollar to 350. The trader expects a pullback to the low 349s, which would offer better prices for entry.
- **Momentum Stock Analysis: Tesla** [02:36] — Tesla is a momentum stock with a history of filling gaps. It moved from 70-80 to above 110, a more than double. The trader notes a potential profit-taking scenario and sets a key level at 110 to judge strength.
- **Roku as a Top Momentum Stock** [05:20] — Roku is another top momentum stock, up about 10x in less than two years. The trader highlights that momentum stocks tend to have follow-through after gap-ups on strong earnings, unlike non-momentum stocks.
- **Roku Trade Setup** [08:08] — The trader discusses potential price targets for Roku in the 270-300 area, representing 20-30% upside. He also mentions a shorting opportunity into 240 if it fails there, with a risk of about a dollar and upside of 3-5 dollars.
- **Trade Desk (TTD) Analysis** [11:11] — TTD is considered the hardest to trade, requiring more experience. The trader notes it's unusual to have three momentum stocks reporting, and he's going from easiest to hardest in terms of trading difficulty.
- **Trade Desk Guidance and Levels** [13:18] — Despite guidance, TTD could close at the high. The trader prepares for a potential 'rug pull' on the open, with S1 as a key level, and notes it could melt down to S3 or lower if it fails.
- **Review of Yesterday's Trades** [14:04] — The trader reviews GM, Qualcomm, and Neo. GM pulled back but buyers stepped in at 28, closing strong. Qualcomm was for sale after an initial pop, and Neo is in an accelerated uptrend, so shorting is not advised until the trend changes.

### Conclusion

The trader emphasizes patience and discipline, noting that momentum stocks can offer significant opportunities but require careful risk management. He reminds viewers to wait for clear setups and not to chase extended moves.

## Transcript

morning okay so things have already changed this morning we've got a lot to cover so i'm not going to really pontificate much or talk the game plan sheet so quickly on market conditions uh this
move is very quick uh we there's a lot of chasing going on um you can see if you go to the daily you can see the you can see all the gaps but we very quickly got from 325
quickly got from 325 326 back to 352. we were due for some sort of pullback we had that in the pre-market already since the jobs number came out we did rip to the upside a little bit
intraday just may be a little bit tougher um if the mind frame is people who missed are still trying people chase chase chase you get the gaps and then you get a gap down this
and it gives people a chance you miss to get in or people who got in who want to we don't feel like they have enough so it'll be interesting to see plans and don't try to chase as much um since
we're already back to 350 but if we zoom out you can see already like after london open we came back and we did touch this area here we got the reward six dollars off of yesterday's high if
didn't have a chance to get in the last few days start buying into here maybe we more and then we rip back above 350 again but that's already played out in the pre-market so we'll see
high and then we roll over but just be prepared either way buyers short term over extended get short into this pop over extended get short into this pop here into into 350.
jobs number pop we went up another dollar and you 350 right now from an hour
ago um i'm gonna pull back to the low 349's just to see those prices would be good all right in terms of stocks considered is a momentum stock high growth stock if
is a momentum stock high growth stock if we zoom out very quickly on the daily back in march moved back inside had a nice little
consolidation between may and july you can see i marked it up probably from two quarters ago and maybe this last quarter on earnings and yeah right at a gap from 70 to 80 last
and over the next week it almost didn't quite fill the gap i guess it was a soft um and then resumed resumed this uptrend here so it does have a history of last quarter filling two quarters ago would it have been this year probably
so just thinking about it over the last couple of quarters it's gone from the to now above 110. so it's a big move if you look at the numbers see anything in terms of impressed on guidance
but they it's a more than a double so i was thinking maybe we'd get some profit we have a good level to treat against or to judge the strength
you can already see it did flush through there for a second people are waiting experience traders always looking 110 level can it support into that obviously if it's weak today and this is one of the possibilities is it
just it's a lower high and then gets crushed through there and you could get like this kind of downtrend situation downtrend situation what did i put so i put 106 as s3
it's at the all-time high so we don't really have anything i put 116 because stole out there in the after hours in front of 116 and then topped out and reversed that 118. so this is kind of our opening we
118. so this is kind of our opening we have a five dollar atr on it um two two and a half eight yours our opening um and then on the upside if it's going to be strong
my first instinct is it's probably not gonna break to the upside but if it does let's say break to the upside initially and then it doesn't even pull below 114 then i would think about it you know
thought is a little bit more likely to pull in and go up first uh based on how much it's moved in the last six months let us take a look at roku roku is
another really was the top momentum stock before tesla really got crazy in the last 12 months tesla's probably up 500 this year roku we zoom out
here to the 30s um i guess this is less than two years ago so this is uh you know this is a this is about a 10x so i guess so with that time period maybe
uh tesla's a 10x as well um so but both very just have certain characteristics and one of the more prevalent characteristics is when they do gap up on strong earnings and
they can have follow-through whereas non-momentum stocks tend to profit taking and the reason why you don't um like a up have a quick flush on the open and then just go much higher
are willing to bid up those stocks whereas stocks that just have a really good quarter and aren't don't have those characteristics of high growth momentum investors um it's difficult to get
much higher prices on that that same day those usually will come in um more so
think about what is it done um you can see we were marked up just trend i think that's what we were looking at here maybe i mean it did come this one actually i think came down to its longer term
uptrend and the most recent pullback actually grabbed this little guy here oops
here from 100 and so um it does have a tendency even if it's strong today and to 240 even goes above here one of the
possibilities i was thinking of it ends up closing above 240 maybe like that and it goes up a little bit more over the next week and then it starts to work its way back to this longer term uptrend
um which at that point will probably work its way up to like 220 225 and then just continue with the trend um i don't know if it's i don't know if it's if it's weak today let me zoom in
of it potentially following that pattern of going higher today of eventually of going higher today of eventually holding this pre-market uptrend and
in this area up here is you have to yeah you have price targets like in the 270 to 300 area and so that's you know 20 20 to 30 percent more upside plus momentum players
possibility um understanding that i've played this last quarter we made money on the short side and it i think it was last quarter and it dropped like ten dollars pretty quickly
so it was really easy on the short side um i think the easy you know the spot that i would be doing that today um would be into into 240.
that it pops into that a certain area to short it maybe this was reacting weekly to earnings but this time here's the initial path to and you can just see how wild this is it went down 30 dollars so
um that's three atr's in the after hours so maybe it doesn't have three atr range today but even a 20 range could get you i think that i put
right now so roku has very strong earnings it is in play by definition uh pre-market volume is a way to measure um the importance of levels and also how in
play it will potentially be for that day uh so yeah
um if it's going to fail here and then if it fails there and comes in and then out 240 it could be off off to the races and it could be off off to the races and then on a failure of 240
and then goes like a lower high and that that gets you sometimes like this um but roku you know you're risking like a
open in it and then after that about a dollar trades where your your you know your upside is at least three to five dollars um and then ttd this is really for
like you don't have five years of experience um it's probably experience um it's probably way outside your scale this is another you know it's unusual to have three momentum stocks reporting the
and i think we started we've gone from easiest to hardest in terms of how difficult they'll be to trade most likely
back here i'm on this gap i've had good luck trading i mean you clean of gap and one straight up um this gap went straight up it has a higher but it's now tripled from these prices
was not that you know it's two years ago so it's gone it's not a no not quite guess with this morning's gap so we've talked about two stocks that have gone up 10x in a couple years those are big news
the market is rewarding growth right now the question is how extended is it over the question is how extended is it over the last six months
all right so high 675 gap 10 above there percentage basis as much as some of the other ones we just mentioned
i just thought with the guidance that they gave even if it came off dollars i could see it closing at the high um i could see it closing at the high um it's always a question of how much
so it was up i'm 50. it was up 30 coming into the numbers um yeah so prepare for the rug pull right on the open and after the rug pull s1
side otherwise it could just it could it could melt all the way back down um to uh to s3 or lower all right so that covers the hard one for yesterday i thought all of these
presented pretty good opportunities on both sides probably um because gm yeah gm uh was initially along then i thought well let's go through all three of them quickly so
one above 30 dollars pulled back to 27.50
four dollar pullback here but then the buyer stepped up to 29 but strong so just based on yesterday's price action uptrend they bought it uh they stepped in and
bought it at 28 and it closed strong i think you know if it's above 29 today follow-through or at least a test of these levels above and we kind of see i'd have to really see it below 28 to think about it
see it below 28 to think about it uh me reverting today um and then on qualcomm qualcomm was pretty wild qualcomm area it then didn't quite get up to the
just looking at it looks like it was for sale the rest of the day it was pretty steady downtrend so i did you know capture this down move to here got long at 45 because we had that as support from the
pre-market and then sold the pop back up um yeah so this i mean this sellers were pretty much in control of this whole day after this initial pop-off of support on the open
so i would be thinking about this on the short side today about on the long side if it took this this resistance area out
and was consolidating you know above here support and it was bought and reversed i
you know this happened in the late morning so i think that was s3 maybe um but it was the low from it's a big level it stayed down there for about a and then reverse pretty hard back up to resistance um
today as long as it's above 290 it's getting a little bit extended though now getting a little bit extended though now and then finally gm um and then finally gm um this flushed on the open um
short in the pre-market you probably didn't short it unless you shorted it below 37 on the open um came back into range had a pretty it is now coming back up into potential short area
and remember we talked about longer term like it can fail here and if it actually doesn't break through and have closes above 38 we want to use this to to sell into this area right here and then finally neo
don't understand why i'm seeing this on our desk is you know we had jks last month it was trending up it went vertical it 30 percent for those who had been with us for a while
to our buy price got long at the buy area in the 5758 area and then went back up to in the 70s where it was yesterday i'm not trending it goes the trend accelerates wait for
it to change um before you start shorting it the short side so you've got this accelerated uptrend i'm trying to draw for you and like this needs to change
maybe on some news or something but it's like it's still on this trend it's already bounced back if that's
fails here makes a lower high but you need to see this like you need to see like this break this trend and then it'll pull to um maybe not to here but you'll get your
pullback to the mid 30s and that's that's when the sellers take control putting on risk more risk on the on the short side um i'm a little pissed right now because i i just missed the spy double top from
yesterday as i'm talking to you but that's that that's part of the job but that's that that's part of the job uh as always be patient and good luck