[00:02] another trading day. Time for some charts. It's a blessedly red day, although just by a little bit. ES, RTY, YM, NQ all red, but to widely varying degrees. The
[00:17] ES is down a few hundredths of a percent. The NQ which is really where percent. Just just small decreases, but it's red. I'll take it. I will happily bet you. I'll take a hundredth of a
[00:32] percent down anything. So it's it's going pretty good, and my concentration continues to be in tech. And hyper-scaling, and that's going decently. So let's jump jump into the charts right now and catch up with one
[00:46] another. Starting with the spider. Still bullishly configured. It will take a penetration of that rectangle to make it otherwise. The blast-off we had on Tuesday was a game-changer. And I would love that game to get un-changed again,
[01:02] if you don't mind. But my wishes, historically speaking, don't have a lot of influence over the market. So we're just going to have to wait and see. The tomorrow morning, an hour before the open,
[01:14] when the jobs report comes out. And I said it this morning, advance of everybody else 30 hours ahead. And I wouldn't know what to do with it. Honestly. Nor would anybody else,
[01:28] because you never know how the market's going to react. So we'll just have to not just wait for the report, but more importantly see how the market digests it over the 90 minutes following the release of that
[01:41] information. But yesterday was sort of an exhaustion of all this buying, and today we're getting a little bit of negative follow-through. My biggest options position, and as I
[01:55] keep saying, these are these are March, 2027 $37 puts is on the FXI and so far so good. Nothing dramatic, nothing exciting, just slowly penny by penny
[02:07] moving downward. Um the [clears throat] chart isn't exactly captivating, but if you do look over the entire history of the FXI, um it basically, as I put it this morning, is playing jump rope with that horizontal
[02:22] line drawn right across. Uh July I mean, simply stated, June it collapsed, July it exploded higher, and then we've just started August and it's ticking down a little bit. It's this broken trend line that I'm focused on.
[02:36] Um not only that, but the fact that over decades, um that red line seems to be a meaningful level of support or resistance, depending on the side you're on. So, uh we'll see how that turns out. The
[02:49] options is that the bid-ask spread you can usually drive a truck through, but intrinsic value, and presently they're like 50% intrinsic value, um then it matters less and less. They'll be judged in a more more pure
[03:04] fashion. Um so, yeah, that's the FXI. different country besides China, which shows worth noting, is South Korea. shows worth noting, is South Korea. Here's EWY down about 2 and 1/2% still
[03:17] got a pretty decent, not that horrible topping pattern on this. Um very dependent on my um microelectronics, semiconductors, and uh South Korea still kind of licking its
[03:30] wounds uh based upon the wipeout it endured July. But, um I I'm not trading that one myself. I'm I'm basically in a
[03:42] ton of little individual positions. I've I've tiptoed back to a pretty decent array of 34 different positions. Five of them are
[03:54] put options that expire next year. And the other 29 are just plain old simple short positions. None of them particularly large, but all of them with lovingly chosen stop-loss levels. Um and very highly correlated with
[04:09] on purpose, it just turns out that the the best charts on the short side happen to look that way and and and to congregate in in similar areas. to congregate in in similar areas. Uh a more dramatic view of this is KORU,
[04:24] which is the leveraged bullish ETF on South Korea. And this has had a wild ride. We have gone from about um almost 70 down into uh almost the single digits, if you can
[04:38] believe that. We've bounced higher um recently, and now we're fading today by about 7.3%. So, lots and lots of drama with KORU, as you can see there. Uh this is the kind of move that even two decades from
[04:53] now will still stick out in in the chart. Uh as far as semiconductors go, SMH, on the one hand, it's up today. Um I actually that my I I I I had sold
[05:06] my put options on SMH um last week, early last week, on Tuesday, I think, for a good profit. The only position I have now is a modest short position. SMH is kind of boring. It's not going to make anybody or lose
[05:20] anybody a lot of money. I'm just kind of want to be in it. Um but we're still in channel. And it would really take it would really take a push above this red line to completely dispatch the bearish setup
[05:35] kind of hanging out in the same area. Uh and over a span of weeks, more than a month, have been working our way lower following that lifetime high that we had back on June 23. Now, I made mention the storage
[05:50] companies yesterday and of the two, I was in one and got out let me explain. The one I was not in was SanDisk, SNDK.
[06:04] And SanDisk took a nice hard tumble last night, but it's been recovering today. It's still down. Uh it's down about $65, but it was down a lot more earlier. I was not in this. I'm in it now. I
[06:19] shorted it uh a couple hours ago and my stop is set right at that price gap. That is to say yesterday's low. So, that's a new one. It's It's a beautiful chart. It's a much nicer chart
[06:32] WDC, I was short and I got out right quick. Uh we opened up and this line is It's kind of amazing, actually, this this this descending and the trend line. Um
[06:46] this descending and the trend line. Um we've found support here and here And I'm not saying I got out at the penny, but it was it was good price, quite low, and I just scurried out of
[06:58] If we crawl our way back up to this price gap, sure, I'll happily get back price gap, sure, I'll happily get back in, but it's a much messier chart and um run. So, that was that. So, of the two, I've
[07:12] switched which one I'm in. Now, crude oil. Uh I've said it before, I'll say it again, watch this for the news. Don't whatever news outlets you happen to enjoy.
[07:24] Uh just watch crude oil. That'll tell you as close to the truth as can be divined from the chaos going on right now. Uh as you can see, it is up uh over 3%.
[07:37] uh over 3%. It seems to found support at around $74. And if you see this thing just starts zooming higher, well, an hour later you read a story about why. But this is been quite interesting to
[07:51] And as you can see here, let's let's 15-minute chart. It has been on the whole lifting higher as people sort of digest the fact that oh, Iran and Oman have some kind of deal
[08:05] and they're not even talking to the US about it and how is that going to go? So we are seeing some strength there. I would not be at all surprised to see if nastiness resume, but you can just never tell.
[08:19] I maintain no energy positions. It's just an a very important element in this market. As far as gold goes, GC we've got a shooting star on this one. I'd said yesterday as big a fan as I am
[08:34] something to ignore. That's an important blockade against higher prices and I do have they're getting lots of views when I come up with these videos. The one
[08:49] that's going to be brand new today is going to be the one on a ratio charts. I've updated my ratio charts which you know, I'll just spoil the ending. The broad conclusion is uh go for gold. Precious metals are going
[09:01] to outperform equities in my estimation in the coming years. But at this very moment, I think that gold's going to endure some selling short-term. I don't have any position in precious
[09:13] metals except for two smallish ones. One is silver. I went ahead and shorted silver today with a stop right at that baseline there. participating. And the other one I entered yesterday which is XME. This is
[09:30] not purely precious metals. This is a metals and mining ETF which is a blend. And as I said I shorted this yesterday with a stop right at that price gap and so far so good on that.
[09:44] cuz it's been a very frustrating critter. But giving it another whirl I've entered kind of half my intended
[09:56] position on BITI today. This is the inverse this is the short Bitcoin fund and this broad pattern here is this a huge inverted head and shoulders pattern that is far far far away from being complete. Um but we'll see how that
[10:13] goes. I do think ultimately Bitcoin's going to be much lower but uh it's been a it's been a pesky bugger. One other little tip I've got a little do. For those interested this throws off a
[10:29] pretty meaningful dividend for reasons I can't fathom. But at the start of each month there's a pretty big dividend paid and the price pretty big dividend paid and the price takes a big tumble. Um and so
[10:41] performance isn't quite as dismal as it looks because it's I don't think this is dividend adjusted so it's basically weakened by each of those dividend weakened by each of those dividend payouts. Um so don't be too misled by by
[10:54] the softness of the chart cuz in the midst of all this there's cash being distributed. Um now I may I talked about how I'm kind of concentrated in things like hyper scaling. Couple of examples in this Cor
[11:07] Weave and Nebius. Cor Weave is down nicely today down almost 4%. You can see a very well defined rectangle of overhead supply that I've drawn there. So so far so good on that. Of course what I've been trying to do is short
[11:21] into strength because we bottomed down here um like 60 and we just you know 60s to the 70s to the 80s to the 90s in a matter of really hours
[11:35] really in trading hours. But it seems to have peaked on Tuesday. So I've been trying to take advantage of all the strength and get back into positions that I like. Um so, back in Coursera, that's going
[11:48] well. Also, although the chart's not quite as pretty, I also short Nvidia and prettier not is down harder, which is nice. This is down over 12%. So that's taken a nice tumble. And again, it had this crazy explosive move and now um
[12:04] started to weaken again as God intended. Um Carvana, uh just a reminder, I've got January 2027 puts on this. And it is just kind of hanging out with its thumb shoved into its pockets, but
[12:18] we have completed this diamond pattern and uh it's just kind of boinking around right now, but uh that's why I have so much time on this. It's may just take a lot of time to uh succumb just as it did back here.
[12:32] Uh couple of other related stocks that I'm short are in healthcare, uh Humana. Uh these guys are down a little bit today. Cute little top on that one. And UnitedHealth Care, UNH. This is down a little more nicely, 2.2%. Also darling
[12:47] little more nicely, 2.2%. Also darling little top on that. Turning away from um from the past month of uh kind of this rounded top. this one I just wanted to mention. I don't know if we've ever looked at FNGD
[13:00] before. This This is a hazardous creature, but kind of intriguing. FNGD is the triple bearish ETF, uh mostly against uh the bearish ETF, uh mostly against uh the FAANG-type stocks and other big uh tech
[13:14] issues. You You You know them all. I mean, if you look at the 20 or so components, they're household names. Um but if if you feel bearish about tech, um this is an interesting short-term,
[13:28] underlying those words, instrument because as a triple leveraged critter, um, it is naturally self-corroding and self-eroding. Um, but yesterday was a lifetime low and, um,
[13:43] we're all kind of at the mercy of Iran and jobs, aren't we? Um, I I I was I bought this yesterday, sold it today just cuz I'm a wimp, uh, for a profit, but, uh, I just wanted to mention that chart in passing. So, just
[13:58] in closing, the ES, uh, still bulls are in control and they will remain in control unless and until we start piercing that rectangle again, which would constitute a failed bullish breakout. It is far
[14:11] from happening yet. The safer one, if we dare use that word for the one or two bears besides me left on Earth, uh, is the NQ. yesterday. Uh, we had a red bar yesterday, looks like a red bar today.
[14:25] This is This is a pretty thin read to hang your hopes on. Uh, this is not some like triple-reinforced iron wall against prices. It's It could be thrust aside, uh, for whatever reason. But, on a
[14:39] stock-by-stock basis, I still think there is plenty of opportunities out there who whose patterns have not been wrecked. Um, and so I'm sticking with tomorrow. See how the jobs go, see if we have any
[14:51] news from, uh, Iran, etc., and how it affects all these prices. So, goodnight. affects all these prices. So, goodnight. See you then.