---
title: 'Why I''m Buying Crypto Now While Bears Wait for $40K'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=YO2shVvc33k'
video_id: 'YO2shVvc33k'
date: 2026-07-31
duration_sec: 891
---

# Why I'm Buying Crypto Now While Bears Wait for $40K

> Source: [Why I'm Buying Crypto Now While Bears Wait for $40K](https://youtube.com/watch?v=YO2shVvc33k)

## Summary

The video presents the creator's argument for buying Bitcoin and crypto immediately while bears continue to wait for a drop to $40K. He explains that the four-year social cycle, not macro, has driven crypto's recent behavior, and that current prices represent a legendary 'buy anchor' ahead of October 2026. He also outlines upcoming catalysts including the FOMC meeting with new Fed Chair Kevin, the Iran peace deal, and the looming AI super bubble.

### Key Points

- **Bears' $40K call hasn't materialized** [00:01] — Bears have been calling for Bitcoin to drop to $40K since February, but the move keeps failing. This failure, combined with the market being positioned for a hawkish Fed and inflation comeback, is why he is starting to buy again.
- **Legendary four-year buy zone** [00:15] — Current prices are a once-every-four-years buying opportunity. Even if bears are right and price heads lower from here, prices like this are unlikely to be seen a year from now.
- **Macro prediction was right, crypto didn't follow** [00:55] — He predicted the TGA rebuild would cause a bearish August/September, followed by a macro acceleration into year-end. That happened for stocks and metals, but crypto was the sole exception because the four-year social cycle overrode macro.
- **Four-year cycle sell climax shifts earlier** [02:03] — The sell climax month moved from December 2017 to November 2021 to October 2025, each time one month earlier on the fourth year. This creates a powerful 'shelling point' where everyone coordinates selling.
- **October buy anchor after all-time high** [02:30] — The 'October buy anchor' typically occurs exactly one month after the all-time high. With the October 2025 all-time high, the bottom should arrive around October 2026, acting as a powerful buy signal.
- **Double test of support holds** [05:07] — Price has tested the same support level twice and bounced both times — once during extreme fear records and again when bears expected the drop. This double hold signals a hard wall for bears.
- **FOMC with new Fed Chair Kevin** [07:04] — Markets are pricing one rate hike in 2026 after expecting cuts. If Kevin sounds dovish or rules out a hike, the market will reprice higher. This is a major near-term catalyst.
- **Iran peace deal and midterm juicing** [08:41] — A legitimate Iran peace deal would remove the energy shock and let Trump focus on juicing markets ahead of midterms. This is another potential re-rating higher.
- **Below 200-week moving average** [10:16] — Bitcoin sits below its 200-week MA. Risks include a stock market crash or an 'air pocket' before the October buy anchor, but the creator still sees a strong case to buy now.
- **AI super bubble could dwarf dot-com** [11:37] — No mania threshold (80) has been crossed since 2021. The upcoming AI super bubble, when synced with the crypto cycle, could produce a rally that dwarfs the dot-com bubble.

### Conclusion

The creator is all-in on the thesis that current prices are the four-year buy window, with October 2026 as the next anchor. While risks like a hawkish Fed or stock correction exist, he believes the AI super bubble and macro convergence make now a legendary entry point.

## Transcript

right now is the bears waiting for 40K Bitcoin to finally come. They've been calling for it since February of this year, and so far it just hasn't been able to materialize. And that's exactly why right now I'm starting to finally
buy again. Not because I believe that the four-year cycle is dead, it isn't because right now the entire market is positioned for a hawkish Fed and inflation comeback in a big Bitcoin move lower that so far just hasn't
materialized and seems to be running out of steam. More than that, we're entering a legendary buy zone for crypto that only comes once every four years in the the bears are right and we do head a bit lower from here, we're unlikely to see
prices like this a year from now. And I personally believe that the coming wave of crypto AI mania that is going to be fueled by the AI super bubble that I see happening over the next couple years when crypto and macro finally sync back
up is going to possibly dwarf any crypto bull run that we've seen in the past. second. My call late last year was that August and September were going to be extremely bearish because of the TGA rebuild that was happening during that
rebuild, we were going to see macro heavily accelerate into year-end and just go through the roof. The TGA rebuild came as expected, it was extremely bearish and sent prices lower, but then post the TGA rebuild, macro did
in fact accelerate into year-end and it was extremely bullish for literally just about everything. Metals, stocks, everything was sending to all-time highs with the exception, the literally like the sole exception of crypto. So, I was
right and spot-on with exactly how macro would play out. I was just completely wrong about how that would affect crypto. And that's because the four-year cycle, although not macro-driven this time around, was still incredibly
powerful as a social cycle. People believed that prices would crash in October and it talked about it for years in advance. And this made the perfect shelling point for everyone to sell all of their crypto, causing it to
completely disconnect from the rest of the market. And the basic pattern for the four-year cycle is to sell during the climax month, which is typically 1 month earlier than the previous climax month. So, in 2017, the climax month was
in December. 20 21, the climax month was in November. And then in 2025, the climax month was in October. Each time it's on that fourth year, but just 1 month earlier. And that coordination point or that shelling point is a really
basically when the four-year social cycle is at max power. Because again, people talked about this for years and years in advance. Everyone knew this date. And then the second max power date is the October buy anchor. This is
typically exactly 1 month after the all-time high. So, the all-time high was in October of 2025, that would mean the buy period or the bottom should be in October of 2026. And this acts as another powerful shelling point where
everyone looks at the market and says, "Now is the time to buy. This is the bottom." And the social cycle kicks into high gear. And people know these dates is about the time you sell and this is about the time you buy. What's really
fuzzy though is what happens in the middle. This is a lot less powerful than causing a lot of confusion for a lot of the bears. They're expecting that Bitcoin's price action is going to follow its typical cycle behavior. What
macro cycle that had been playing out from 2013 to 2021, it didn't play out this previous time. We didn't see that happen over this last kind of leg of the Bitcoin four-year cycle. It was completely driven by
different fundamentals and the four-year social cycle. And that social cycle is less powerful in between these anchor dates. And so, while everyone was expecting Bitcoin to drop to 50 or 40K back in February, Bitcoin's price
actually climbed higher. And what happened is a lot of the bears mapped those lower highs that Bitcoin typically does during this leg of the cycle, and low." But, that got delayed. That was slow. People didn't coordinate together
at the right time. It finally triggered after Saylor sold and the Iran peace deal fell through yet again. But, even then, it wasn't previous bottom. It kind of just bounced off of that bottom. And so, we're kind
of stuck in this point where it doesn't seem like the bears, at least as of now, have the strength to break through the bottom. And the next big anchor is meaning crypto's basically pre-programmed to start going back up
starting in October of 2026. So, really the question is right now, what happens going to go to a new low? Are we going to go down to 40K, 50K, 30K as some bears are calling, or is the bottom in
and we're going to just kind of slowly grind up into September, October time map out what happens between this sell anchor and this sell anchor, and how we expect the 4-year social cycle to interact with the macro cycle and how
perspective. Now, I think the first thing we really need to look at is the fact that twice now, we've basically come down to this level and tried to break through, but bounced off of it both times. Which is definitely
strength and momentum during this time period. This was like max fear. We were setting all-time records for like the lowest fear and greed index numbers and ratings we've ever seen, and the longest period that we've been in
extreme fear. And then, this one as well had a lot of momentum. This was like the expected time period right here when most of the bears expected us to know, it's going to happen. It's coming anytime soon. And so, a lot of effort
and strength went into this and went into pushing this lower, and yet again, it basically just bounced off this bottom and once again is heading higher. And when price has tested the same level twice and it's held, especially with
definitely a signal. That's definitely a signal that this is going to be a pretty hard wall for the bears to break. And you kind of have got to ask yourself, finally break through that level? Certainly some things could, like there
I'm not saying that there isn't. I'm just saying it would take something pretty extreme at this point in order to break through that level because there's a lack of coordination with the bears during this fuzzy middle period of the
four-year social cycle. And for me, that gives me some confidence that now isn't necessarily a bad time to buy into the market. Maybe not deploy every, you capital, but for me, I am deploying quite a bit of capital at these levels
because it feels like a safe place to start getting into the market because as I said, these are historically legendary buying conditions when it comes to getting into the market. I'm still up from my investments that I made all the
way back in late 2022. And part of the reason isn't because I made perfect investments. Obviously, I really botched up the sell period not selling in October. One of the main reasons I did so well is because I was able to buy at
market. That's something that historically I've been pretty decent at. when when you're buying the bottom of the market. Now, in terms of the next four months between now and October, we have coming up this week an FOMC
one because it's our first one with Kevin. Okay, Kevin's going to be taking up the stage and we're going to really get to feel what what is Kevin thinking? What is Kevin really, you know, going to do now that he is the Fed chair? You
know, Powell's out. Jerome, he's he served his his time period. Now we got Kevin. And Kevin can't unilaterally make decisions. He's got, you know, there's a Board of Governors on the Fed, but he's still a very important figure when it
going to carry weight. Now, a lot of people are expecting Kevin to come in really hawkish. He's That's like basically bearish if you guys aren't And that's because of his historical record. So, historically, Kevin's been a
hawk. Now, kind of to balance this out, Trump hired Kevin assuming he would cut wants. He wants rates cut. He, you know, candidate. He picked Kevin. And you got to assume it's because he thinks Kevin's
going to cut. Did Kevin dupe Trump and like kind of sneak his way in? Like we uncertainty, but the market's leaning towards Kevin's going to be a hawk, as it is. So, the market's currently pricing in one rate hike in 2026, where
we previously had priced in three or more rate cuts in 2026. We also have priced in currently the oil energy shock that's happening in Iran. mostly actually positioned pretty dang bearish. And there's a lot of upside if
things swing a different direction. For example, if Kevin takes the stage on Wednesday and is like, "Hey, by the way, I'm actually a lot more dovish than you guys expected. And here's the reasons I think we could cut going into 2026." The
market will have to reprice and re-rate. And even if he doesn't say cut, if he just basically makes it clear that he's not going to hike in 2026, the market is going to have to re-rate and reprice. Also, you know, right now it's
deal. I think the market is kind of unsure given that how many times we've supposedly had an Iran peace deal at this point. But if this ends up being legitimate, that's another re-rating for the market to head higher, which is
right now. Bitcoin is repriced higher right now because there is a belief that this Iran peace deal has legs. And so, you're kind of seeing everything head higher right now. But I think you'll continue to see that sustained if this
is really a a solution for the current energy price uh or the energy crisis happening in Iran. That also frees up Trump to focus a little bit less on Iran and a little bit more on juicing the markets. Uh Trump's got to win midterms
and he's kind of really far behind at this point. Uh he should he should be or well up until now and he and he has been a little bit. That's kind of where my uh thesis behind late 2025 into 2026 you seeing some more momentum
in macro. Some of that was from the midterm juicing. We we we have had a enough. Um right now I I think the odds are heavily in favor of the Democrats winning in the midterms. So Trump's really got to make some moves and those
moves uh tend to be very bullish for the markets. And finally right now Bitcoin is sitting below its 200-week moving average. Now there are a couple things I floor uh and that would be two different things. One would be like some sort of
big stock market crash. Okay, um stocks have been doing really good. AI everything has been doing really good. Uh so so what if we saw a major crash or correction sort of like a summer lull in the stock market because you know it was
just due it was a little overheated kind of due for it, right? That's one of the kind of consensus thoughts right now about the market. Maybe it could happen. happen especially cuz we're heading into midterms but you never know. Uh that
I've talked about the two anchors. And as we get closer to this buy anchor, thinking which is people kind of ramp up their buying but it's also possible it does the exact opposite uh which is as we get closer people have an expectation
that we're going to bottom around here and so they slow down their buying just to see what happens and that sort of creates an air pocket of sorts. And that air pocket leaves room for uh price to head lower. So those would be kind of
bit cautious but even still I think that there's a strong case for now is just a great time to buy regardless. Like either way. And I know I've shown this to show it again. This is the dot com bubble. This is '06, '07. This is 2013,
2017, and 2021. All of them crossed this 80 mark as kind of like the threshold for a mania. Uh but we haven't seen anything like that since 2021. The anything like that since 2021. The closest we got was like the end of 2024,
the closest thing we've had this entire past cycle to an alt season was around that time period. So, this cycle has been a lot weaker than past cycles, but I believe eventually we will sync back up with macro and social and macro will
it's going to be even more than that. You're going to have an AI super bubble things, and I think it's going to put the dot com bubble to shame because the transformative technology, but I don't think it's going to hold, uh you know, a
candle to what's going to happen with AI and how fast and how violently AI is going to transform uh different things, not only the market, but the economy and the world at large. And I think people are starting to catch on and starting to
this thing is going to blow up into something just absolutely crazy and and almost desperate in some ways, in in my opinion. And it'll really strike and it'll really kind of reach that climax when macro syncs up uh with this
on. And that might not happen perfectly with the 4-year cycle. If that were to happen, it would be just absolutely unhinged uh for crypto. But it doesn't necessarily have to happen in that way. Either way, I am all in on this thesis.
I really do think right now is the 4-year buy window, and historically that has been the case that right now is a a legendary time to buy into the market. I think right now the best place to be buying into are going to be anything AI
related as we watch crypto be absolutely transformed into something that's much more AI adjacent over the next couple years. And I put in here that the window That's not necessarily true. Like there's always opportunity in the
market. It's just the peak opportunity is around here, but there's nothing in after that. There's There's always opportunity in the market, as you've seen during this last leg of the market. There was opportunity the entire way
opportunity the entire way through. Every year, there is more and more opportunity in the markets to make money. If you feel like you missed out like you missed out on the last big play, you didn't get in Hyperliquid, you
whatever it is you're you're feeling FOMO about, just remember, there's There literally is always going to be another opportunity. There always has miss out on anything. You just got to keep your eyes ahead on what's coming
put down here I'm going to be sharing what I'm buying next week in terms of my be next week. It might be actually in a couple weeks. I don't know. Uh but I'm about my thesis about what I'm accumulating, what I'm buying. But just
advice. None of this is me telling you to do anything with your money. I'm research. And if you're curious about seeing my entire portfolio or you want tokens, as well as different weekly video market updates, uh currently the
wait list in the description of this video. If this video is helpful, make sure to hit that subscribe button and the little bell next to it to be video. Thanks for watching, and I'll see you next week.