[00:02] another stock market live stream. Market is um not happy right now. We were morning. Uh Jolt's data was expected to be released at 7:00 a.m. sharp. And I
[00:14] opened up to see what the Jolt data was going to be and boom, the notification pops up. Jolt's data job opening and labor turnover data delayed due to government shutdown. Yeah, back at it again, boys and girls. Back at it
[00:29] again. back to government shutdown days. At the same time, as now you've got some holdouts in the Republican party demanding voter ID as part of uh being willing to reopen the government, which you know, I'm I'm kind of a proponent
[00:43] for voter ID. Don't tell me wrong, but you know, my opinion doesn't matter here. What matters is now they're trying to keep the government shut down over it. You know, that's a whole another thing. At the same time as that's going
[00:55] on, you've got this feud between Nvidia and OpenAI. Uh Jensen, it's it's apparently getting so bad that Jensen's going to, you know, he's going to start doing interviews apparently. Uh and it'll be interesting
[01:09] if uh Sam Alman does any interviews. Not uh not seeing not seeing a lot of kind of some panic tweets from him. know they got to they got to take the spotlight off the Epstein files with
[01:23] something. It's always that you know PayPal had a 1.1% miss on uh adjusted earnings per share forecast for the year. Uh as a result of that 1.1% miss and a CEO change out the stock's now down 18%.
[01:38] down 18%. Trading for a.7 peg ridiculously cheap. Trading for a.7 peg ridiculously cheap. You've got SanDisk that may have topped out. Uh might be obviously too soon to say, but uh massive rotation that uh so
[01:55] far you've got banks and defense stocks that are just doing the best. That doesn't include SoFi either. SoFi's got its own issues. We talked about those this morning in the uh alpha report or in the um course member liveream. But uh
[02:10] defense stocks doing very well, healthcare stocks doing well, and banks still holding on. JP Morgan coming perfectly down to our wedge just to bounce off of it. But uh outside of defense, healthc care and uh and banks,
[02:26] boy, you've got you've got some some frustration here uh in the market. I mean, Palunteer had great earnings as usual. They forecast low and then and then beat it and then brag about their earnings, but institutions didn't really
[02:41] earnings, but institutions didn't really care cuz the pre-market rally really got sold off on on Palunteer. So, it's not like you really went to the moon on this you're up 5%, but the stock's still down, you know, 22ish%
[02:58] uh from where it was uh earlier last year or mid last year. I mean, well, let's go take a look. When when was it? Oh, not even that long ago. We peaked Oh, not even that long ago. We peaked out November, end of last year. So, uh,
[03:13] a lot of peaking going on. A lot of peaking. At the same time, the NASDAQ 100 today, it totally lost 630 from pre-market. And and as institutions come in to sell, they don't even pit stop at 627. It's
[03:29] straight dump lineto line. I mean, we had the run yesterday from 617 to 627. Uh, today it's like straight old dumpy doodlers down. So, uh, yikes.
[03:42] the hell is going on. You know what I think it is? Uh, I think a lot of people are, uh, finally waking up and they're saying, you know what, got to give it to him. Kevin's right.
[03:58] Why not invest in a company that hasn't gotten a valuation since August of 2024 and let's just sell and diversify to House Hack or Reinvest cuz you know
[04:10] Kevin's going to go buy fixer uppers. They just added 12. Uh and and he's going to go fix them up and and rent the properties out to tenants for us. It's deal with all the bull crap. None of this. We don't have to deal with any of
[04:24] this garbage. Kevin's going to deal with all of it for us. and all the headaches that come with with tenants and toilets and um we're gonna diversify. At the same time, if if Kevin's valuation AI really kicks butt and uh and and and
[04:40] people really love it, well then then we got this upside opportunity inside uh of uh you know, some actual practical software. You know, who knows? You know, maybe that's probably why everyone's dumping. You know, invest and reinvest.
[04:53] No tenants, toilets, or headaches. 5% plus upside. Real estate back. Invest with credit card. A or wires. No fees. Obviously, I prefer you use a or wire. credit cards. I mean, I get it. You You get You get points, so I get why people
[05:06] on debt to invest, but you know, I'm not their adviser. Investment round closes February 6th, 11:59 p.m. Uh yeah, that's the uh yield we pay out. monthly basis through conversion. You know, we we only convert if the stock's
[05:22] valued higher. Anyway, let's let's go back to uh seeing maybe what maybe maybe looking at the doomers this morning in the journal and couldn't really find any particular reason. Here we've got the information talking about
[05:39] uh a little bit of drama here on Stripe Stable coin uh inside the Musk takeover. Stable coin uh inside the Musk takeover. Let's take a look at that. uh major anthropic backer quintuples an AI math startup's valuation due well
[05:55] yeah anyone who's leaving those bigname companies uh is is able to raise quite a bit of money what's really driving the SpaceX merger what's really driving the SpaceX merger uh money XAI burns a lot of money a lot
[06:09] of money a lot of money
[06:26] combination of his company, SpaceX, startup, XAI, shiny new jewel, blah blah deal shows how quickly the world's richest man is moving to gain a fundraising advantage. Yep, exactly. What did I say? Money. It's It's always
[06:42] what it is. Like, you know, you have to ask yourself, like, somebody was asking do you think, you know, Disney had this thing where uh they they'd let you, you know, go to Disney for free on your birthday. And the idea was that people
[06:56] their friends and family to go celebrate their birthday. People like, why do you think they got rid of free tickets on your birthday? And I'm like, it's simple money. [laughter] You know, it means it didn't work out
[07:09] for their growth. Uh, and maybe they were net down on the deal, you know, customers and maybe they just brought their existing customers and gave them a free ticket. So, it always comes down to money. It's always money, money, money,
[07:24] money. It's always money, money, money, money. So, I agree with this though, though. I do think uh that uh Elon needs money. I think that they are diluting SpaceX investors. I I do not like it at all. Uh like I'm I'm I'm borderline
[07:39] pissed. Like I don't I do not want any exposure to XAI at a $250 billion valuation. I think this is funny money. You know, this is this is a stupid number that was concocted and I think this is a money losing business. And
[07:54] frankly, Grock is like always fourth or fifth. You know, Grock's down there with like US usage of DeepSeek. Everybody else is using Gemini, Claude, and uh and
[08:06] else is using Gemini, Claude, and uh and Chat GPT, and Elon can't have it. Elon can't stand the feeling of losing. Uh so he's got to do everything he can to try to squeeze more money out and get his hands on Dalahalis. And I think
[08:19] that's exactly what's happening here. You know, the investment from SpaceX into XAI and the investment from Tesla into XA XI was not enough. into XA XI was not enough. Needs more money.
[08:35] loaded question because that implies that I ever said I would buy it at IPO. No, I don't want to buy it at IPO. That's I think that's going to be the That's I think that's going to be the biggest cash out I've ever seen.
[08:50] Uh the company has been in talks with Anker Investments to invest a large chunk of the $50 billion the company hopes to raise in the IPO. Yeah. Well, probably into into AI. So now you're now you're robbing the space
[09:07] ambitions so Elon can got by guy go buy more chips. You know they already got plenty of H100s. You know how many more H100s do we need? I mean I know now we're doing black wells but you know the GB200's but still like you know even
[09:23] those chips will be old in a year or two. Ah it's just wild. Uh, while the arrangement should give XI what would have been a fairly straightforward IPO. I agree. I totally
[09:39] agree. Like that would it would have been such a clean and good IPO been such a clean and good IPO and now you got to screw it up. I don't like it. Uh and I think their their revenues are going to uh are going
[09:54] their revenues are going to uh are going to be really murky because now you know revenue growth is going to include the acquisition of XAI. So it's going to be acquisition of XAI. So it's going to be really hard to comp their revenue.
[10:11] and S's to start building robots instead. That's correct. instead. That's correct. Yeah. Yeah. That's kind of crazy. All Yeah. Yeah. That's kind of crazy. All right. So, let's see here.
[10:24] SpaceX shareholders who believe the company's story with investors will require more explaining with the XAI combination. Totally. Very much on investors mind. If it was a clean IPO, everyone would be super
[10:36] clean IPO, everyone would be super stoked. People are like, hm. Uh, people are more than that. offering one proxy. Echoar has fallen nearly 5% since the news broke on Thursday. Ah, that doesn't
[10:53] surprise me. Combination highlights how the cash drain of AI development is forcing companies into the sector to look for deep pocketed partners either by raising money or combining with another business. Yeah.
[11:08] This demonstrates the edge that a deep pocketed leader like Google has. Yes, correct. And Gemini has done very well. XAI told investors it burned through 9.5 billion of cash through the first nine months of
[11:21] last year. Wow, dude. They're spending money like drunk sailors. money like drunk sailors. H
[11:34] purchase chips. Revenue for that period stood about 210 million. That's it. 210 million. That's literally 1% of GPT. Well, that's nine months. I think they're about $20 billion at OpenAI. 200 million is is 1%
[11:49] billion at OpenAI. 200 million is is 1% of what? So, OpenAI is is making 100x more money. Holy smokes.
[12:05] company Tesla said it had pumped $2 billion into XAI. It's not clear if the Tesla investment was part of that 20 billion. Right. Right. Well, now it's unclear how much money, you know, what these combined financials
[12:19] are actually going to look like cuz the cash burn over here basically cuz the cash burn over here basically kills all of SpaceX free cash flow.
[12:35] So then you got in contrast SpaceX founded nearly a quarter century ago recently started printing cash had 1.2 or 1 to2 started printing cash had 1.2 or 1 to2 billion of free cash flow
[12:53] bankers who flew in recent weeks to meetings ahead of the IPO walked away impressed with the company's dominance. Yeah, it's a great clean company.
[13:11] Revenue had grown to roughly 16 billion. See, then that's where OpenAI sits great margin. Uh I mean that is adding back in stock comp and stuff.
[13:24] Uh hi. Uh
[13:46] Sorry, Lauren needed help. Uh acquisition of X which owns uh Grock muddies the story. Not only is it burning cash faces problems of AI think you could write down some of these these little notes here. Uh just some of
[14:01] them to get a little bit of a feel for this. So,
[14:20] Okay, so SpaceX uh made 186 16 billion in revenue and we uh made 186 16 billion in revenue and we had about 8 billion EBIT DA so doesn't include you know stock comp etc likely okay now they had 1 to2 billion of cash
[14:37] flow uh 1 to2 billion cash flow let's cite that really And XAI And XAI has a revenue of 200 mil which is
[14:50] roughly 1% 1% of open AIS. Okay. 1% of open AIS. Okay. And XAI burned in 9 months they burned
[15:02] what was it 9 billion or or 8 billion? 9.5. So they're burning about 1 billion a month. uh about one bill per month on uh AI,
[15:16] uh about one bill per month on uh AI, you know, that's that sucks. So, basically, uh all of uh SpaceX's cash flow is going to go to um XAI's money furnace
[15:40] instead of space. of space investments, right? Which that's the whole vision of of the company
[15:52] is which is complete looness. Oh, in two to three years we'll have a lower cost to three years we'll have a lower cost way to generate compute in space. No, good luck cooling them, coming up with the the technology to do that. Uh, and
[16:07] servicing them at a lower price. It's it's two to three years. Talk about like a decade at least. I don't know, whatever. Um, SpaceX largest backers barely whispering
[16:24] about the topic six months ago, last September. September. uh partners talked up the SpaceX deal.
[16:39] has injected. Uh sorry one sec.
[16:56] function a year ago. Nobody talked about this blah blah blah business backers blah blah blah et data centers in space would raise the stakes for making the starship reusable right but you're going to need more capex
[17:09] to need more capex you're going to have to make investments
[17:21] ground stations power star legs hurdles of the cal blah blah blah blah blah huh All right. So, whatever.
[17:33] right. So, whatever. I don't know. Weird. Weird. But the need I don't know. Weird. Weird. But the need for cash is obvious. >> Uh, okay. And then if you look over, that's the one we just read.
[17:52] So, wait, is it pie in the sky? Cashe eating XAI $250 billion. would launch data centers in space. Oh, this is an opinion on it. Yeah. Okay.
[18:05] Okay. So, this is another little article on it. to businesses very successfully. Oh, let's take a look at this.
[18:25] Oh, they got Palanteer involved though. Morgan Stanley and Palanteer generally conducting small tests. All right, that's an interesting report. Uh, the information reports XAI struggles to sell to big enterprises.
[18:41] sell to big enterprises. Uh, though some small tests are happening with Morgan Stanley and Palanteer, which that's cool. Yeah, Palanteer probably benefits just of out of aggregating a lot of different models
[18:55] of aggregating a lot of different models together, right?
[19:10] So, and then remember the valuation. So, it's 1.25 25 billion combined, 250 million XAI, which is like honestly a disc to to SpaceX.
[19:27] money XAI will need over the next few years. I mean, they make good money, so years. I mean, they make good money, so what are they on about? necessarily more free cash flow. Oracle's fundraising even as Elon Musk
[19:42] is claiming data centers in space will be the only option. Other companies like Oracle raising money for Earth capacity. But Oracle acknowledged the extra capacity is for customers including XAI
[19:56] and OpenAI. In other words, Oracle is raising money to serve two customers that are also in the market to raise money to pay cloud bills. [laughter] Uh yeah. Yeah. That's that's the cycle,
[20:12] right? Uh XAI is also an Oracle customer who's raising for more data center uh capacity.
[20:32] fine. All right. So, how is Oracle doing All right. So, how is Oracle doing today?
[20:44] at this. Issue their fund raise and it just keeps going down again.
[20:58] true. That's true.
[21:11] capability with Starship. Might not need to burn its capital on that sometime in the near future. Uh I mean I think there's there's a lot of hope there.
[21:23] Yeah, I did see that X offices in France got raided. Yeah, I mean mostly because of the you know the unhingedness of Grock. uh there's no filter, right? Which is also a really big risk
[21:38] for, you know, star uh SpaceX you know, star uh SpaceX uh owners, investors, right? It's crazy. Uh you know, another thing here that's interesting to pay attention to is
[21:51] interesting to pay attention to is what's going on with Oracle. So Oracle, uh let's see here. Oracle reported 523 billion of RPO.
[22:03] Oracle reported 523 billion of RPO. Then we've got that includes 300 billion
[22:22] epitomized concerns about the circularity. The company's unveiled a letter of attend intent to invest hundred billion dollars into open AI over a few years. Yeah, I I remember that original pitch
[22:36] where they were doing the uh 10 billion10 billion increments. Uh and that was in September. Nvidia Yeah, there it is. Nvidia look Bloomberg
[22:48] Yeah, there it is. Nvidia look Bloomberg literally titled it. Bloomberg literally titled it Nvidia to invest. So even they were, you know, sort of tricked, if you will. All right, let's
[23:04] go listen to it. >> About Nvidia a lot over the past couple of months. Mike, you've spent time with Jensen Wong. You know how close he is to Donald Trump. What was the genesis of this hundred billion investment? That's
[23:18] $95 billion more than they announced they were putting into Intel last week. The money goes to Open AI. We're talking about the potential of millions of stacks to be put into use here. This is huge business for Nvidia.
[23:32] >> This is a huge business and a huge business move on their part because in a way it really does cement this partnership between a huge potential customer. Open AAI will need all that computing power as it tries to expand
[23:46] its own footprint, build its data centers and this is a relationship that they will want to uh build out from the open AI end. But of course in for Nvidia this really uh vindicates uh their efforts to try to expand its own tech
[24:01] stack here in the US but also abroad because OpenAI is not purely a US venture. They'll have uh their uh their expansion plans uh globally as well. >> Sent Nvidia to an all-time high today. Just talked about Nvidia a lot over the
[24:16] spent time with Jensen Wong. You know how close he is to Donald Trump. What was the genesis of this hundred billion investment? That's $95 billion more than Intel last week. >> Yeah. And apparently that was all
[24:33] >> Yeah. And apparently that was all fugazi. That was all hype. Very But people were convinced like I'm just trying to go back to look at that
[24:45] sentiment and and people were convinced by it and and people were convinced by it then. Let me see if I can see anything else about it.
[25:04] investments. Let's >> try >> talked about Nvidia a lot of months. Mike Mike just want to see oh Jean the Uber bull.
[25:17] >> And how long is this going to last? What inning are we in? It's Nvidia investing into open AI and effectively uh creating more demand for response that Elon had
[25:31] >> I want to see him mention I want to see what his opinion is on the 100
[25:49] >> Nvidia's investment of a hundred billion dollars into open AI and return open AI is going to be buying saving them tens or hundred billion dollars a year. But if AI does uh come to have the impact on the world that a lot of these companies
[26:05] >> okay, this is just like a report of what's going on. He didn't really give an opinion on this, whatever. But it's very interesting because what you're seeing is you're seeing this uh this like four months ago it's like oh wow
[26:20] yeah it is a hundred billion dollar investment and you know now Jensen's branding it as no I never committed to hundred billion I said you know sure we might be open to doing up to that at some point in the future. There was some
[26:33] uh there was some intentional um how would I put it? Um misleading there. A little fugazy, huh? Uh all right, let's see here.
[26:46] Okay, so let's try. So that was the information. Bloomberg Walmart hits1 trillion dollar milestone.
[26:58] Okay, Disney swaps out their CEO. Bob is Disney swaps out their CEO. Bob is leaving.
[27:10] gosh. Anything anything to bend the knee to Trump to get, you know, some kind of directed capitalism. It's just pure cronyism. It's It's not going to It's not going to end well.
[27:30] are working out plans for a massive program called Trump Homes that would allow private credit credit to deploy billions of dollars. Lenaro and Taylor Morrison are among firms working on the proposals
[27:44] are among firms working on the proposals to sell entry-level homes. program funded by private investors. Oh, here we go. What is it gonna be like a lease option? Yeah. Investors would rent out the homes to tenants whose monthly
[27:59] payments would after 3 years be counted towards their down payment if they wish towards their down payment if they wish to purchase the home. It's lease option. Yeah. And they frequently raise uh you know the rent above market to help
[28:11] contribute towards the down payment. Such a program would be complicated to implement. I mean people do lease options all the time but uh that is interesting. Private investors would bear the initial losses blah blah blah
[28:23] blah blah were encouraged by thoughtful discussions between builders and the administration blah blah blah blah blah. All right. So
[28:36] So that's no news.
[28:48] Private equities giant software bet has been upended by AI, right? Traders jump software stocks. Get me out. That's true. You're seeing like massive negative momentum across software. Let's look at um Cena greed and fear. Let's
[29:03] look at um Cena greed and fear. Let's see how it sits with breath. into the fear t category. Market momentum is fear. Stock price strength
[29:18] though because of uh the net new highs and lows still sitting at uh 52 week highs, but that's only you know 5.8%.
[29:45] junk bomb. What did this just pop off over here? That's interesting. Yield spread. Look at the yield spread. Just jumped over. I mean, we've seen it before. But that's today. Why did it just jump
[29:59] But that's today. Why did it just jump so much today? before, so I guess it' be just something to watch. But, uh, yield spreads can go
[30:12] from complacency to shock very, very quickly. So, I actually don't enjoy don't think they tell you anything about what's coming. They tell you about what has been. That's not very useful.
[30:27] Not useful at all. Hey, looks like the cues. Look at that. Perfect 617 within eight pennies. Uh we are seeing that rounding out on Uh we are seeing that rounding out on the cues.
[30:48] Salesforce, Adobe Service Now. Look at these these failures here in terms of stock price action. Salesforce down 5.8%. Adobe another 5.6.
[31:00] Service Now another 7.3. Thoughts on Super Micro? Super Micro is great. I I mean I think Super Micro's uh you know a company that that has really just gotten destroyed though through not only their their accounting problems
[31:14] deal and it really rocketed uh out of the whole of those accounting problems but the other the bigger issue right now is Oracle suggests that there might be a big slowdown coming for data centers. Uh, this Oracle Nvidia drama,
[31:32] it's getting worse. I mean, did you see some of the Oracle tweets yesterday? There are things you don't say here. Let me pull them up. It's crazy.
[31:47] let's see here. Well, look at this person. This person throws a good quote together on it. But let me show you the quote here. The Nvidia OpenAI deal has zero impact on our financial relationship with OpenAI. We remain
[32:01] highly confident in Open Ability OpenAI's ability to raise funds and meet its commitments. Right? So, look at this. This person throws out, well, social media team just cost the company 3.5 billion in market cap
[32:13] with a single tweet. The stock was up 2% then it pose this closes down 2.7%. then it pose this closes down 2.7%. Swing represents $3.5 billion in value by a PR team trying to project confidence. Yeah, that was dumb.
[32:34] Oracle has a contract of $60 billion per year starting in 2028. OpenAI's entire year starting in 2028. OpenAI's entire 2025 revenue was around $13 billion. Oracle is betting its balance sheet on a company that currently burns more cash
[32:47] than it earns, paying 5x its annual revenue in cloud bills. Yep. To fulfill that contract, Oracle needs to buy 400,000 Nvidia chips at a cost of 40 billion. Oracle is raising 50 billion in new debt and equity. Bond holders
[33:02] already sued in January claiming Oracle hid that need for a raise. This is true. We looked at that lawsuit as well. Nvidia CEO is telling reporters that the hundred billion dollar deal was never a commitment. If Nvidia scales back,
[33:16] OpenAI's ability to pay Oracle becomes the question. Uh Oracle is trying to preemptively answer here. Correct. The circular financing structure is simple. Nvidia funds OpenAI. OpenAI pays Oracle. Oracle
[33:30] pays Nvidia. If everyone's growth depends on everyone else continuing to write checks, Nvidia just signaled, it might pace those checks differently than about in the yesterday video with the circle. Uh but but yeah, that that
[33:44] Oracle tweet was wild. Like why they sent that I'm like, "Oh, this is crazy." sent that I'm like, "Oh, this is crazy." Absolutely crazy.
[34:04] software stocks for a while, but sentiment has gone from bearish to sentiment has gone from bearish to doomsday. Traders dumping their shares. Call it SAS apocalypse. [laughter] Yeah. Well, people are really like any
[34:19] Yeah. Well, people are really like any kind of SAS that that people feel is is replicatable with a with like a GPT uh has been getting, you know, sniped. Basically, trading is very much get me out style
[34:32] trading is very much get me out style selling. Yeah. Yeah. I agree with that. I think you know this this some of the AI fears are frankly overblown.
[34:46] holding up? Because they were down like 2%. Yeah. Last chance to buy Bitcoin under 90K again. Yeah, exactly. under 90K again. Yeah, exactly. Um,
[35:01] somebody says Jim Kramer just called the bottom. Oh, did he? Oh, no.
[35:25] However, HD Home Depot and Bloom Energy just pumping that.
[35:38] All right. What else? Then you have so we did the information we did Wall Street Journal we did Bloomberg let's see if the FT or Eco has anything for us. So Eco
[35:59] AI bubble is not big tech's only worry. Okay.
[36:11] is looking less recession proof. Well, that's not great for Google or Meta that's not great for Google or Meta or YouTubers. [laughter] Uh, having shrugged off the previous two downturns, digital ads are likely to
[36:25] take a serious knock when the next one eventually hits. Dude, everything's hit recession, it's going to be like the most depressing uh like decade ever. There's so many people are going to lose so much money
[36:38] in in markets and and you know on top of that people are invested and have debt the debt is just going to be a a bigger anchor under just going to be a a bigger anchor under a deflationary Fed dude like war. Like
[36:53] front of our eyes. And it's kind of scary honestly. It just makes me wonder scary honestly. It just makes me wonder like gez man. It's it's uh
[37:09] Big tech has come to dominate the market. Digital channels now account for 60% of worldwide spending. Ad spending. Sure. Up from 30% in 2017. It's really Sure. Up from 30% in 2017. It's really big growth in digital advertisement.
[37:25] Tech giants have an 80% market share. Wow. earnings. Agreed. And they're very good. Uh most of Alphabets
[37:37] and a growing slice of Amazon's even Microsoft and Apple have multi-billion Microsoft and Apple have multi-billion dollar ad businesses. Right. Yeah. So says, "I still can't believe Trade
[37:49] Desk." You know, Trade uh it's it is sad. uh in January of 25, you know, I I said the biggest concern was that platforms like Netflix were creating their own ad platforms and that they that could destroy Tradeesk. And I I
[38:03] turned very bearish uh in January 2025 on on Trade, but the fact that it hasn't found a bottom, that's [clears throat] sad.
[38:19] over here. I think it peaked in December. I turned bearish somewhere around here. This little flat shelf right here. It was right around 120 bucks. That's when I turned bearish on it. I didn't get the
[38:33] peak, but uh I turned bearish here, but I mean, look at this. It's gone through every line. It's insane, It's insane, you know, and Adobe is is no better. You
[38:45] look at Adobe. It's like shocking. Look at this. I you can't you can't draw enough lines to keep this one up. We're now sitting at COVID. Look at that. March of 2020 full
[38:59] round trip. The Fed vacuum cleaner is full round trip. This full round trip. This [laughter]
[39:11] that's incredible. [clears throat] Oops. Didn't mean to throw that up. There we go. Uh, as boom economy straw
[39:24] paper publish blah blah blah suggests cycles in advertising spending were 40% more extreme and during the economy in the economy as a whole. Robert Hall, Stanford University found that during downtowns, firms cut ad
[39:38] spending faster than their sales drop. Yeah. Yeah. I believe that. I believe that. That's that's always the the rumored story too that uh you know people induce their own recession by cutting advertising.
[39:51] advertising. Well, when we when we release our valuation AI which we're I there are multiple uh you know machine learning algorithms that we're creating for that because it takes a lot. So it's our own custom AI but once that
[40:07] valuation AI comes out it might make sense to advertise because the the app don't know if it will. I mean, we'll see. Uh, a lot of people are already liking it, but but the real step up comes when we evaluation AI for our
[40:20] and nobody's doing that in real estate. It's going to be pretty remarkable. But anyway, cyclicality made sense. Advertising was discretionary, not essential. Its benefits were uncertain and downturns. Executives preferred to
[40:33] preserve cash over building future demand. Cost cutting was contagious. Once a few big companies/marketing budgets, rivals followed. Right. budgets, rivals followed. Right. the cycle down. It's a spiral.
[40:48] Advertising. Recession. Recession. Everything bad. We get it. Economist. We get it. Okay. Okay. The tea is done.
[41:07] Yeah. Not really. You know, there's there's very little on why the market seems so fussy. Let's go look at CBS. So, gold and silver rebounding a bit today. Look at that. Back almost
[41:23] back to 5K on gold. Not anywhere near the tops. Same on silver. 88. Not anywhere near the tops. Still down, you know, 25% or so on silver.
[41:37] pure play on AI adoption. Yeah, and they just they got down to 414, didn't they? just they got down to 414, didn't they? I you know, technically we in the alpha report said there was a good chance of them going back to 428. You know, we've
[41:51] been talking about that for a while, but we're now breaking through 428. we're now breaking through 428. It's incredible.
[42:05] Pterodine I think is one of the few still doing well right now uh post earnings. Pterodine is like all-time highs. Look at this. So what's all-time highs. Look at this. So what's the valuation on Pterodine? Teer TE
[42:20] the valuation on Pterodine? Teer TE sells for uh 2.1. So in our alpha report, I actually did an analysis on them. I I'll give you a quick little preview of it. So quick
[42:35] preview of it. Terodine fairly valued as a manufacturer. This was back in October. Uh in we did this analysis October 31st. If you bought it on this analysis, you would have paid $150 for the stock. $150
[42:51] is what you would have paid for the stock if you bought it on this analysis. valued. Uh although they contract manufacture mostly, this could actually suggest this could be a $283
[43:05] stock on Wall Street growth estimates of 31% average growth over the next four years and a 267 peg. Uh, also if we take Kevin's estimates due to flat robotics, which I expect to
[43:19] jump, and robots only taking 8% of the sales right now, $317 is justifiable for the stock. Damn, bro. Look at that October 31st analysis. So, a stock's $150 bucks. I'm like, this is a 280 to $317
[43:37] [clears throat] It's got margins, have decent pricing power. The balance sheet is strong. The valuation was fair then. Momentum was already a little bit high there, but not by much.
[43:51] So that's a good little alpha analysis there, huh? Very good. Uh they they I mean they basically fulfilled exactly that forecast much faster than than you know
[44:05] forecast much faster than than you know stocks usually do. So very interesting. stocks usually do. So very interesting. Yeah. Q can't even hold it up. Yeah. I I don't know. Very weird weird market day. Look at private credit going down again.
[44:19] So, let's look at the private credit ones here. Uh Blue Owl. I've got Blue ones here. Uh Blue Owl. I've got Blue Owl Technology at 12.39. Owl Technology at 12.39. Uh hold on. Where is this? Uh let's go.
[44:33] Uh hold on. Where is this? Uh let's go. Here we go. Okay. So, Aries Capital is down again. These are all the private credit puppies. all the private credit puppies. All right, so Aries Capital down again.
[44:47] [clears throat] Prospect Capital slipping. slipping. KKR tanking. Black Rockck has been KKR tanking. Black Rockck has been straight down. Blue Owl straight down.
[45:00] This is now the lowest level for Blue Owl Tech. Owl Tech. Pricetobook discount of 28. Yikes. Uh, and then you look at look at this
[45:14] one. This one's also selling at a discount of what's the discount on this one? 833 1226. 1226. 32% discount. Dude, people are dumping
[45:27] private credit. But that's the problem. People dump private credit. It uh it it slows down the funding for artificial intelligence.
[45:51] BT Sizz. Yeah. I don't know. I feel like we we know, cuz like the market's so know, cuz like the market's so depressing right now. Um
[46:04] depressing right now. Um you know, makes you want to find something juicy to go shopping. You know, the problem is it's so I don't
[46:18] like shopping this uh this early in the like shopping this uh this early in the year. It's uh less ideal. You get a lot of buyers that go shopping, so you have a lot of competition.
[46:30] a lot of competition. Just put in some more codes here. let's see here. Yeah, I'm still waiting for some new deals to hit. Some marginal
[46:46] deals. Nothing super juicy. Short sale. I know. You want to go back and buy any short sales? Short sales and [laughter] That was a fun time. [clears throat]
[47:07] Yeah. Wild. Yeah. Oh well. I go work on our AI. There's a lot to do this morning. And uh the market's no fun right now. So anyway, all right. I love y'all. My house went up 100K in the last 6 months.
[47:22] Oh, good for you. Maybe you got a wedge deal. You know, the me Kevin style. All right, folks. I love you all. remember the uh investment for house hack round the the little twoe extension we did I just invested an extra million dollars
[47:35] just invested an extra million dollars into it that ends on Friday uh I'm a company and I think it's a great way to diversify away from the insanity of advice you know read the investment documents uh there's risk with every
[47:50] documents uh there's risk with every investment obviously and uh yeah our next annual numbers come out at the end of April And uh probably I don't I don't know if we'll do a valuation right away then uh
[48:03] but uh but yeah be kind of cool. So I appreciate y'all and uh we'll see you in appreciate y'all and uh we'll see you in the next one. Good luck.