---
title: 'SMB Capital AM Meeting November 4th'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=1_td9kGOeuk'
video_id: '1_td9kGOeuk'
date: 2026-08-10
duration_sec: 1365
channel: 'SMB Capital'
---

# SMB Capital AM Meeting November 4th

> Source: [SMB Capital AM Meeting November 4th](https://youtube.com/watch?v=1_td9kGOeuk)

## Summary

The video is a pre-market analysis from SMB Capital on November 4th, 2020, focusing on market reactions to the US election results. The presenter discusses market gaps, key support and resistance levels, and provides specific trade setups for various stocks including NIO, BABA, PayPal, and Tesla.

### Key Points

- **Market Reaction to Election Results** [00:41] — Markets were bought on the open, failed at resistance, and then experienced volatility with election results. Futures initially rose, then reversed hard when a strong Biden win seemed less likely, and later turned positive again.
- **Election Outcome and Market Implications** [01:39] — Biden is likely to win the presidency, but Democrats have no chance of taking the Senate. Historically, US markets have been strong during divided government, such as the period with the GOP controlling the House and Democrats the White House.
- **Caution for Traders** [02:16] — Traders who spent a lot of mental energy overnight should be careful not to do too much today. The market is gapping up over $5 on the SPYs, which is a large gap, and traders should watch and observe rather than trade aggressively.
- **Bigger Picture and Key Levels** [02:59] — The market is back where the down move started a couple of Mondays ago. The support area above 340 was breached, leading to a downtrend. The burden is now on sellers to close below 340, or even 338, to indicate a rollover.
- **Potential for Chasing** [04:21] — Many managers were waiting for election results to put money to work. With results out, some may chase, but it's unclear why they would chase at these high levels. If the market is expected to make new highs next year, they may be less reluctant to commit money.
- **Pre-Market Trading Strategy** [05:00] — The presenter shorted at the blue line spike and is looking for the market to hold below 341.5 for a few minutes to start a pullback into 340. A bid to cover the short position is placed at 340.50.
- **Tech and Qs Analysis** [06:22] — The Qs moved from underperformance to overperformance, touching 286. A better risk-reward entry for technology via the Qs is at 282.50 to 283, with a slice below 284 on the open.
- **California Proposition and Gig Workers** [07:39] — A California proposition passed, voting that gig workers are independent contractors, not employees. This is positive for companies like Lyft and Uber, as it changes the business model.
- **Lyft Levels and Resistance** [08:05] — Lyft is approaching a potential resistance area at 31.5 to 32. It spent a lot of time in a consolidation range, and it would likely have trouble closing above $32 today.
- **Market Reactions to Election Outcomes** [09:15] — The initial reaction was to sell clean energy stocks like TAN because without a Democratic-controlled Senate, Biden can't do much on clean energy. However, it rallied back from support in the pre-market.
- **Healthcare Stocks** [10:07] — Healthcare names are gapping up strongly, reacting to the idea that the Supreme Court won't overturn the ACA. However, they are difficult to trade.
- **Volume and Support Levels** [10:32] — A stock had 300,000 shares traded, about 13% of average daily volume. The presenter has a support level at 66 and a potential resistance above 68. If it slices through above 68 on volume, people may shrug off the news.
- **NIO Technicals** [11:51] — NIO is starting to go vertical, reminding the presenter of JKS last month with a 30% pullback. It had a trend, went back into the 50s, and is now consolidating in the 70s.
- **Reversal Day Potential** [13:00] — If a stock gaps higher and reverses inside the prior day's range, it's a potential reversal day. The more extended and vertical it gets, the more significant the pullback on a percentage basis.
- **NIO Trade Plan** [14:08] — The presenter is using the 30-minute trend from yesterday. If the trend extends, it could get above 38 and go vertical, but be prepared for either direction.
- **BABA Analysis** [14:46] — BABA retested the pre-market at the open and immediately went back up to 290. The presenter tightened things up, with levels at 292 and 294, expecting it to stay in a range between 284 and 294.
- **PayPal Analysis** [15:51] — PayPal failed at 180 on the open and dropped $5, but reversed hard. The presenter shorted the spike and made money. A flag pattern broke cleanly on the second leg, and the stock is now gapping up with the market.
- **PayPal Levels** [17:31] — PayPal is expected to consolidate between 180 and 190. Sellers are in control as long as it can't close back above 188.
- **PINS Analysis** [17:43] — PINS is still long from the pullback to 57. If it gets too extended today, the presenter would get flat at $63 and play a pullback higher low above 60.
- **Marijuana Stocks** [18:21] — CGC is gapping down, possibly due to various referendums around the country. The presenter wants to see closes above $20 to feel good about it.
- **Tangent on a Trader** [19:19] — The presenter mentions a trader who makes millions of dollars a year and is better than 99% of traders, but people were picking fights with him.
- **Intrinsic Value and Stock Potential** [19:43] — A stock came back up to $10, made a higher low, and could potentially go back to 25 or 30 dollars. It double-topped at seven.
- **Tesla Strategy** [20:09] — Tesla has come off about $7 and is back inside its range. The presenter would sell more at 440, buy weakness around 400, and get aggressive below 400. If it closes above 450, consider buying 470/480 calls for a move to 500.
- **Another Stock's Potential** [20:54] — A stock double-bottomed at 35 and is back up to resistance. A close above 40 is needed for a real move. If it fails, it could pull back and stay above 38, then work its way back to 44, 45, or 48.
- **General Approach** [21:54] — The presenter doesn't have a strong bias on most ideas. He identifies prices where buyers could take control (inflection points) and plays up to resistance, then down to support if selling occurs.

### Conclusion

The market is reacting to the election outcome, with a large gap up and potential for volatility. Traders should be cautious, focus on key levels, and be prepared for either direction. The presenter's approach is to identify inflection points and play the range, emphasizing patience and good luck.

## Transcript

Um all right, so things did not disappoint in the market overnight. We we were bought again yesterday on the open, went up into this resistance area.
We did fail there. Um but morning. Uh things were pretty wild. I don't know how many of you were watching the futures, but we started um going into the election results real strong.
into the election results real strong. Uh we were up at 338, 339. Then when it started to look like uh the results weren't a strong Biden win, we reversed hard, went negative. Um and then we went positive again
when when uh exact time, but since then we've just been going higher. And for those of you who haven't been following too closely what the numbers and percentages and
prediction markets are saying um is that Biden is most likely going to win when they finish counting the votes in these last few states. Um but at the same time, it looks like the Democrats have no chance of taking the Senate.
Historically, US markets have been strong um when you have divided second term, that was probably one of the greatest have the internet bubble. Um but you have divided government when we you know
the GOP took the house and um and the Democrats controlled the White House. So, House of Representatives. One of our legislative branches in the US, if you're not familiar. So, um
looking at this this morning, um before we even get in more to the to the details, for those of you who are spent a lot of mental energy and time overnight and didn't sleep, um you really want to be careful today
uh not to do too much. You know, watch, observe. Um especially since when you tricky to trade anyway. And this is a very large gap. We're gapping up on the spies over $5. We were up over six when we hit the blue line earlier.
you know, you got to be careful with these these these large gaps. Let's see 60 minutes. And and then perhaps some good trades will set up there. So, in terms of um bigger picture, we're right back where
the down move started from uh a couple of Mondays ago. Remember we had the support area here above 340. We breached it. We got down on this two Mondays ago. We went we breached it and that was the beginning of this downtrend here. And
talking about what would it look like if we climbed back up. we've talked about after the election once there was more certainty we would have strength. Although it didn't quite play out the way I think most people
Uh but the market the market is moving higher here and the burden now is on the sellers to show that we could even close you know, at a minimum below 340, but I would even say
Uh You know, in terms of us being able to work our way back up to these prices um in the near term uh unless we we close below three this 338 level here. And if that happens,
maybe we can roll over a bit and you know, test this area like the low 330s buyers are in control. Um and remember, a lot of managers, waiting for the election results and to put more money to work. And those
results have happened. So, you might get some people to chase. I don't see why people would be chasing all the way up here at one things to come in, you know, closer to 340, 339, in the high 330s um to really start to
put some money to work. But um if people are thinking that event's out of the way and the market, you know, going into next year is going to make a new high, next year is going to make a new high, uh they may be less reluctant to to uh
to to commit money. So, that's kind of where we are. Uh
time we spiked to the blue, I I did short. The second time we came up here, I had a little uh-oh moment, but it's um we failed there again. Uh And the first time we failed
around 341 and 1/2. So, what I would be looking for now is now that we're pre-market downtrend, is can we start to hold for more than a few minutes below 341 and 1/2? If we can, maybe that will be the beginning of a pullback into 340
earlier. Let's see where we were earlier in the pre-market, we did poke our head above the 34050. And that's kind of actually where I have I have a bid to cover into this right here. Um meaning short position.
meaning short position. And so, then we'll kind of see strength. And we are back above 280. So, we went from underperformance to
overperformance in a hurry, uh right back up to this resistance area. And we even looks like we touched 286. Wasn't looking as closely at the Qs as Wasn't looking as closely at the Qs as the spies this morning.
nut to crack. Um remember, we were just down at 268, so that's $18.
283. Um if we start to pull back more on Let's see what we've been doing in the premarket. Okay, so we did break out there from So, we did get to 282 and a half, moved
sideways for about 15 minutes before the next leg. But that would be the area. Um better risk reward entry on on the technology via the Qs.
and we'll see if we maybe double top, go into this range, and then come back down, and and see what how it behaves at 284. But a slice below 284 right on the 284. But a slice below 284 right on the open, I'm looking at 282.50 to 283.
stuff, I didn't see a lot of good fresh news stuff. we did have the the proposition in California pass. There was a law in of the um
uh gig workers into two um into employees under employment law, which changes the whole business model business models. But, they had a referendum and people voted to say no,
they're independent contractors. So, that was really good um positive actually, as I'm talking about it, we're distorting a second move from the pre-market getting to our first potential resistance area 31 and
1/2 32. So, if we zoom out on the 30-minute
was this? So, this was early June. Sold off from 40 to 28. And then they had off from 40 to 28. And then they had this range here from 28 to 32 for a while before breaking down, I guess, late September and October. So, we're
think this would be a tough nut to crack right here, or at least close above it. Um maybe things go crazy for a little bit and it actually even works its way I'll put on the sheet, but you would think that it would have trouble closing
above $32 today. Um it's spent a lot of time in this consolidation range. And it know, people might start to think, well, other markets, if they're going to try uh them as employees, they'll have referendums as well.
go from there. Um it's the same thing that's to to it's the same idea in Uber. I just decided to to use the levels in Lyft um rather than Uber. And then, I guess, tan, the initial gut reaction from people was to
to sell the crap out of it because without a Democratic-controlled Senate the Biden really can't do a lot on uh on clean energy. So, um you know, maybe they'll negotiate some sort of deal,
but it was kind of sell sell tan first and ask questions later. It did rally back pretty hard from the support here in the pre-market. resistance. We did fail into that. I actually got inside of this range.
reacting pretty strongly to the to the idea that assuming the Supreme Court doesn't overturn the the ACA that Obamacare that that that's going to be really good for some of these healthcare names. But
they're very difficult to trade UNH and the others. But they are gapping quite a the others. But they are gapping quite a bit.
how much volume we got. We got 300,000 shares. It's about 13% of average daily Um I don't have a strong strong view on this. Um I think you know the levels that I put
up there at 66 I put on first support. Um this thing uh right back up to this potential resistance. So you know the good risk reward is down
here. But maybe maybe it'll make a higher low. It'll leak below 66 and play it into this where people are long from down here. You would think people would sell after the open. If it slices right through above 68 like it did in
the premarket on volume then people are going to just shrug off this news and any timeframe you're trading when something moves back inside of range it has a tendency to Well you can see once it goes in the range it goes back and
forth inside of the range. So that tendency applies on all timeframes. So that's on those things. Then, tech So that's on those things. Then, tech second days and technicals.
don't think Lyft is Uber's anywhere close to its all-time highs. close to its all-time highs. Uh strong recently. So, let's just quickly go through these second days and
technicals. Um so, NIO NIO is really starting to remind me a little bit of I remember our our friend JKS last month when it was 30% pullback. So, I mean, it's a real you know, it's it's starting to go
you know, it's it's starting to go vertical here. And No. Had this trend and then it went
back into the 50s. It's now consolidating here. Um the 70s, so we'll see. It was a little bit weaker this morning, I guess, on the on the election gap down, but it's it's right back above 60.
down, but it's it's right back above 60. So, getting back to NIO. we go to the prior day and we look at the prior day's high, the prior day's
afternoon support, and we use those levels. If something gaps higher and then kind of reverses inside of the prior day's range, that's a potential reversal day. Um and the more it gets extended, the more vertical it gets, the
more fun it is in terms of the pullback on a percentage basis. So, let's see. So, hopefully this will keep on getting strong yesterday on the um I guess on the news of the The it gapped up in the
pre-market here was the entry into the European market. We actually talked meeting we talked about buyers stepping up, sellers stepping down, and then I break? Is it going to break this way or this way? Um
time did it break? Broke at 10:30 to the upside and then closed at the high, pre-market high there. That's a level above that there obviously is no real um cuz it's a new new high. Um and in terms of the support, all I did was use
this. Um looks like I just covered this bias on a $2 pullback. So, um um the
in terms of uh in terms of judging whether or not if we extended this trend from yesterday morning,
on the game plan sheet. We're on the 30-minute trend from yes- yesterday. And so, and then maybe you get that then it gets gets above 38 and then maybe it just
goes completely vertical. But, be prepared for either direction. you know, follow the levels we have from yesterday and the trend that formed from the prior two days on the 30-minute once it broke
to the upside. So, that's on NIO. Uh Baba was pretty good. Um it did actually retest the pre-market uh right at the open. I was able to get it there. I didn't think it was going to
have then immediately go back up to 290. Um it did go up there pretty quickly and moved back in range. So, I tightened things up a little bit today. Um
it's 292 and 294. You know, maybe this will stay in range today. Tighten up, stay between 284 and 294. Would be great. You know, if it got a little bit tighter today and tomorrow got a little bit tighter, I mean
out about them being able to list the Ant IPO, and if it does, it could be back above 300 pretty quickly. But until that until we get that piece better for a tight consolidation and then a a play of the break.
And and still in the strong longer-term Um PayPal was pretty interesting. I feel a little bit lucky that I was able to make money on the short side in it. So, um right on the open yesterday, it
failed at 180. You can't see it on the 30-minute. discussed that in the morning meeting. Um that was I think R1, and it dropped $5 immediately, but it reversed really hard.
spike. I was able to short into the spike. It came off $5 pretty hard. I was here. And you know, once it got above 180, I'll say it did flag. It was pretty clean break on the on the second leg.
could hold above 180, you got this tight consolidation here. Oh, this little red downside before it went up. For those of you who are new, remember, whenever you get a flag like this, and if it breaks one way, and then on the next bar
doesn't follow through in the initial direction and goes back up, usually that probability because you got people leaning the wrong wrong way on this red bar. And so, when it goes back up here, and then starts to take this out, um
there's a high probability you can you can break to the upside. can break to the upside. Um so, looking at it for today,
gapping up with the market. It reversed pretty hard from 188. I I could see this, you know, this one I could see consolidating in this area for a while. it based on they had good numbers but the guidance wasn't great.
know, between 180 and 190 seems kind of reasonable to me as as I zoom out And you definitely give the sellers I guess technically are still in control as long as it can't close back above 188 or so.
So, that's how I'm thinking about that. Um yeah, pins were still long from the pullback to 57. Uh it's gapping up. My thought is that, back a little bit. But if it got really
extended today, you probably want to get flat at $63 or something like that and then play it you know, pullback higher low above 60 or so. closes above 60. If you can get a couple closes above 60 here and then a break to
the upside, I think that'd be really clean um on pins. Uh and then let me just quickly um I do know that the you know, the marijuana them. I don't know if we talked about them yesterday or a couple days ago. So,
them yesterday or a couple days ago. So, CGC Then I guess there was probably a bunch of referendums around the country and
that's impacting them a little bit. Maybe that's why this is gapping down.
to be closing above $20. And even yesterday pulled back when it flushed to have some closes above 20 to feel good about it. Otherwise, I wouldn't be area in the range. Until right, people are still trading
it down at a dollar or something? Where did it come from?
talking about his short from back up here. watched that. It was funny seeing people picking fights with the guy who's, you know, makes millions of dollars a year, better than 99% of traders.
He knows what he's doing. Um Anyway, Anyway, that was a tangent.
the intrinsic value of this is of this company is and I can see why people, you know, it came back up to $10, it makes a higher low here. Maybe if it gets above to become Neo and go back to 25, 30 dollars, but you never know.
You never know. So, it's double topped here at seven. Um Yeah. So, let's take good care of that. Quickly on Tesla, um well, it's already come off about $7.
you know, it's back inside of range. So, I thought if it got, you know, to 440 440, I would sell some more of what I picked up on this this pullback below 410. Um and just keep on trading in this range and if it ever closes above the
top of this range here above 450, um then start to think about maybe buying some 470, 480 calls and look for that move to 500. But, until I see some closes above 450, I'm just going to continue to like sell strength when it
you know, moves into the 430 to 450 area and buy weakness when it, you know, goes down to around 400 and anytime it goes below 400, get really aggressive buying.
I So, I gave up on this one below 40. Um trying and it has turned the core It has, you know, it's trying to change. So, let's take a look at it. So, it double bottoms here at 35. It's
back up to here. So, there potentially is a lot of resistance right here. So, for this actually to go up for real, I mean, it's back up to kind of where now. And so, what you want to see is
a close above 40. Um even if it fails here today, pulls back in, stays above 38, maybe does some work in this area here for a couple of days, and then does something like that.
work its way back up to 44, 45, maybe even 48 eventually, but it's uh this is a good move right back into resistance, potential resistance. that is that. And just on uh the final
answer her or his question so you didn't address it to everybody. Um but on most of these ideas we share in the morning meeting, um generally I don't have a strong bias either way. Like the other day in Neo I did a few
days ago, thought it would pull back to 32, but um generally I'm just identifying the prices where buyers potentially could take control. That's why we have inflection points. And playing up to the resistance areas.
And then if I see selling at resistance and failure, playing it to pull back down to inflection. And if it's holding below inflection, down to support. And most stocks do not trend. Most stocks we identify where they're gapping to, we
support, and we watch how they trade off trading in a nutshell. As always, be patient and good luck.