[00:02] why I think value betting is a more profitable way to go about your sports profitable way to go about your sports betting opposed to Arbitrage betting for those who don't know what Arbitrage betting is or also known as arbing it is
[00:15] when you bet two sides of a sports match for guaranteed profit whereas value betting is to take the value side of that equation and not hedge off any risk and not have any chance of a guaranteed profit so in this video I'm going to
[00:30] betting is a better strategy than Arbitrage betting in the long term but before I get started please make sure that you subscribe to the channel and click the Bell so you get a notification anytime we post a video like thisit it
[00:44] is scam when you don't allow everyone to operate on Fair terms we are the robin hoods of sports betting we take something back from the rich bookies and enable our customers to beat them instead
[00:58] so the biggest issue with Arbitrage betting is that it involves taking a negative EV bet on the other side just so you can hedge out of what was already a really good position on the other side
[01:12] so to show you exactly what I mean let's look at an example here in a tennis match between Novak jovic and Rafael on the do so let's just say for argument sake both players have exactly a 50% chance of winning bookmaker one offers
[01:26] chance of winning bookmaker one offers you 1.9 odds for both players on each side bookmaker B offers 2.2 for jovic and 1.7 for Nadal so if you're going to do your Arbitrage calculation here let's
[01:39] just say you have $100 you're going to put $46.3 4 on jovic at 2.2 which is put $46.3 4 on jovic at 2.2 which is your actual positive EV bet and then you're going to play a Negative Edge to reduce your risk on the other side Nadal
[01:55] at 1.9 you're going to put $536 on that one so no matter what happens in this game no matter who wins you are guaranteed a profit of
[02:09] example again you have a 50% chance here of winning of winning $120 and a 50% chance of losing $100 so your expected value on this tennis match on this bet by just taking
[02:22] tennis match on this bet by just taking jovic is a 10% long-term profit in other words you're getting $10 worth of EXP value so comparing the two quickly there value so comparing the two quickly there you've got $1.95 of guaranteed profit if
[02:36] you go with the arbitrage strategy and then if you go with the value betting side of the equation you're just doing value betting then you're looking at $10 worth of expected value so not guaranteed profit but as you can see
[02:48] there is quite a big difference between those two numbers of 1.95 of guaranteed profit and $10 of expected value so using that example of the tennis match between Novak and r Al I'm going to take you through my five reasons why I would
[03:03] be choosing value betting over Arbitrage bet reason number one is that Arbitrage betting requires large bets or large turnover at least so as you saw with turnover at least so as you saw with that example $100 gets you back
[03:17] $1.95 so that's obviously not a very sustainable strategy sure it is you know probably on the weekend but even there you know $1.95 is not the biggest profit
[03:29] to make anything significant so you really need to look at scaling it up and getting lots of money down on these bets so it is going to require a lot more capital and once you start investing a lot more Capital then other issues come
[03:45] in which I'll go into more later but that's surrounding account restriction whereas in value betting it doesn't take as much Capital as you can see if we're as much Capital as you can see if we're looking at an if expected value strategy
[03:57] looking at an if expected value strategy then you're comparing $10 to $1.95 I know that $10 is not guaranteed profit but in the long term we would think that over a large sample of bets that you're going to get very close to that $10
[04:11] number after you get thousands and thousands of bets in so in this example I've given here you require basically you know to turn over 5x the amount just to get near that expected value amount of $10 and following on from that my
[04:27] second reason why I prefer value betting is just the profit margins so if you're looking to scale up either operation whether that's Arbitrage or value Bing it's going to be so much harder to scale up and make an actual decent profit on
[04:40] things unless you're doing value betting on one side yes there's a lot more risk involved but long term you should be able to make a lot more money with value betting than Arbitrage betting so that's another reason why it would be more
[04:53] interested in Valu just because most likely in the long term you're going to make a lot more money with that than you are with Arbitrage betting that is of course if you do have an edge my third reason and I talked about this a little
[05:06] betting over Arbitrage betting is bookmaker restrictions and yes both strategies will eventually get you restricted but arbing is most likely going to get you restricted a lot earlier and that's because when you are
[05:20] placing AR bets it means that you getting a significant amount of value on one side and those are really going to flag up to the book maker once you place maybe even one or multiple you know versions of these bets where you're
[05:34] taking huge value because in general to create an AR you need to have massive value on one side so when you're taking those examples of massive value then
[05:46] bookmaker and your accounts are going to get restricted a lot quicker whereas if you're value betting you're probably not taking you know huge value bets like you would if you were placing ARS but you're taking edges smaller edges over time
[05:59] time and it's going to be harder for bookmakers to spot you placing smaller Edge you know plus EV bets over time fourth reason why I choose value betting is bookmakers can actually void bets especially in cases where there are arbs
[06:14] because there are going to be times where the price is so far out from the market that the bookmaker can just void the BET and put it under palpable error and say that it was a mistake you know technological issue they could maybe say
[06:29] the Trader accidentally instead of reducing the odds he accidentally pressed the other button which shoots the odds up even further things like this it's a great opportunity for book makers to void bets and if they do that
[06:43] obviously that's bad because your positive side of the equation has been taken out and now you're risking it on a negative EV bet and the biggest issue with this is that if they do void one of your bets most likely the profitable
[06:56] side is or the the plus EV side is that it's going to leave you with one side of the AR and you are only on the side of the AR that is most likely negative EV so you've got a really bad bet basically so yeah a really risky thing to be doing
[07:12] arbing just because if the odds are that far out from the market they can definitely just put it under palpable error and your bet gets voided and my better than arbing is just simply time
[07:25] consuming I mean if you're placing two bets on you know one one event that's going to take a lot longer than it does just to place one bit especially when you're doing using you know calculators Arbitrage calculators by the time you do
[07:39] all the working out of exactly what stake you need to put down it's going to end up taking a lot more of your time than if you're just doing straight value bding so there's a lot of things there I've gone through five reasons why I
[07:53] think value betting is better than Arbitrage betting obviously some people if you are just getting started in beding and you have a very small bank way for you to get started and build your bank roll but as a long-term
[08:07] strategy Arbitrage betting is simply not going to be a better strategy than value betting if you have an edge thanks for watching everyone if you are interested in giving value betting a go make sure you start a free trial of the trademate
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