---
title: 'Everyone Is Waiting For $40k Bitcoin (Here’s Why They’re Wrong)'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=Ck3eR5l2XY0'
video_id: 'Ck3eR5l2XY0'
date: 2026-07-31
duration_sec: 674
---

# Everyone Is Waiting For $40k Bitcoin (Here’s Why They’re Wrong)

> Source: [Everyone Is Waiting For $40k Bitcoin (Here’s Why They’re Wrong)](https://youtube.com/watch?v=Ck3eR5l2XY0)

## Summary

This video analyzes why Bitcoin has been climbing for eight consecutive days despite severe macro headwinds. It argues that seller exhaustion and a weakening four-year-cycle narrative make a drop to $40k unlikely, and that the $60k bottom should hold unless the April liquidity flippening turns catastrophic.

### Key Points

- **Bitcoin climbs despite macro meltdown** [00:02] — Bitcoin rose for eight straight days while the S&P 500 lost trillions and commentators compared markets to 2008. $900B was wiped from gold and silver in just two hours.
- **Rare eight-green-candle streak** [00:30] — Bitcoin is set to close eight consecutive daily green candles for the first time since December 2020. The last time this happened, Bitcoin rallied 145% in two months.
- **Seller exhaustion flips the market** [01:24] — When enough sellers exit, remaining holders refuse to sell without a major shock, leaving the market flat or higher as new buyers step in. This helps explain why Bitcoin isn't following macro down.
- **Even war and oil shock didn't break the low** [02:02] — The Iran conflict, oil shock, and 'super bowl of bad news' were not enough to trigger a new wave of sellers, raising the question of what bigger catalyst could.
- **Bear case: 2022 pattern repeat** [02:31] — Bears argue Bitcoin is mirroring 2022 move-for-move and expect a drop to $50k or $40k, citing typical bear-market relief rallies of 17–46% that trap bulls.
- **Bull case: 200-week moving average reclaim** [03:42] — Bulls highlight that reclaiming the 200-week moving average historically leads to violent upside, and note Bitcoin is decoupling from stocks by rising while equities fall.
- **Short squeeze fuel** [04:07] — If Bitcoin crosses $75k–$81k, a short squeeze could push prices much higher, which would explain Bitcoin's recent outperformance and punish bearish positioning.
- **Liquidity flippening landmine** [05:15] — Between late March and mid-April, tax returns and tax payments create a liquidity shift; combined with a still-escalating Iran conflict, this could disrupt any bullish narrative.
- **Four-year cycle fear is fading** [07:00] — Bears' predictions rely on a simple every-four-years selloff pattern, but that fear has already been realized and its power to influence price is dissipating; macro conditions take over.
- **No mania phase means no 2022 repeat** [09:29] — This cycle never had the parabolic mania of past bull runs; the 2025 decline was driven by TGA rebuild and the 1010 liquidation event, not organic weakness, so past-cycle comparisons are flawed.
- **The $40k bottom is unlikely** [10:21] — If the mid-April hurdle passes and $60k holds, liquidity should ramp into the midterms and election cycle, pushing Bitcoin steadily higher and leaving bears waiting for a legendary 2026 bottom empty-handed.

## Transcript

with Bitcoin right now. The S&P just lost trillions of dollars. There were analysts and experts last week claiming that this is the new 2008 recession. Macro news has been relentlessly bearish and yet Bitcoin has been
climbing for eight straight days now. This post from Max Crypto says eight Bitcoin is set to close eight consecutive daily green candles for the first time since December 2020. Last time this happened, Bitcoin rallied 145%
in just two months. And this is during the same time that 900 billion dollars was wiped out from gold and silver in just two hours. And like I said, at the same time that the S&P 500 erased two trillion dollars in market cap. And
analysts are warning that the markets are looking a lot like 2008. This isn't just bad news. This is like the Super Bowl of bad news. And despite that, and despite everything else going down, Bitcoin has eight straight days of
consecutive green candles. And it's going against the entire rest of the past two videos, this points to two different things. The first one is the coming into the market right now. But
everything as we talked about last week, because if it did, then why isn't everything else going up as well? Bitcoin is a little bit more sensitive explains some of it, but that certainly does not explain all of it. The second
point that we highlighted last week is it seems like the market has run out of obviously there's still people selling Bitcoin, but there comes a stage in the market where the equilibrium flips,
firmly in control for the last few months and really pushing the price down. But once enough people have exited the market, you're kind of left with the they're just not going to sell for whatever reason until you have something
really knocks them down. So you're left in a state where all the people who were going to sell have already sold, and the people that are currently holding are going to hold, which tends to keep price flat or move it higher if you have new
buyers stepping in. And we have to ask ourselves, if this war in Iran, this oil shock, and all of the fear and just, like I said, the Super Bowl of bad macro that wasn't enough to kind of kick off that next wave of sellers, what would it
take to actually do that? It It would have to be something even bigger than that, which kind of begs the question, is that even a possibility or a likelihood at this point? And right now you sort of have two sides forming
have two sides. You always have the bears and the bulls. But right now you have the view from the bears, that Bitcoin's about to drop down to like 50 or 40K. That's actually just repeating the exact same pattern we saw in 2022,
They don't identify the reason, but because of tax returns in March, and actually pay their taxes. And this post is one of the bears saying that Bitcoin still is mirroring 2022 move for move. Kind of terrifying, right? We're about
And so he kind of draws, you know, on this chart showing the the moves up and the moves down. And he's saying that, you know, it kind of looks about similar here to what we saw in 2022, so therefore the next move here should be a
lot lower to the 50K range. This guy's about saying the same. He's saying, "You're not bullish again, already, are you? Every bear market bounce tricks the same people. 2022 had six relief rallies averaging 17 to 46%. Every single one
the other guys highlight, like a lot of the bears are highlighting, that it's actually very normal, in 4-year cycle terms, to see Bitcoin run up right before it actually sells off lower. Now the bulls are highlighting a
highlighting that Bitcoin's back above its 200-week moving average, and that historically every Bitcoin reclaim of that key support leads to a violent move higher. Others are noting how Bitcoin has detached from the stock market where
Bitcoin's going up. Others, like we just talked about, are highlighting that Bitcoin is pumping on good news, bad news, or no news. And again, like we And what happens when those that sold start to buy back en masse? Finally,
short squeeze. So, they're saying, "Hey, Bitcoin right now is looking prime to short squeeze. If If we just cross over 76 or we just cross over 75 or we just cross over 81 or whatever, Bitcoin will short squeeze way higher and that will
underperformance we've seen in Bitcoin relative to other assets." And so, you different arguments. You have a lot of bulls right now saying, "I told you so. right. You guys were wrong. All of you
so stupid to be bearish." And in my opinion, that's a little bit premature when, you know, Bitcoin drops from 120k to 60k and then goes up like 2% you can't you can't really say, "I told you so."
bullish. Like, I've been bullish this entire time. I've been wrong for months entire time. I've been wrong for months and months and months. Bitcoin's barely moved up. And my point is that this small move is not yet a
meaningful trend. And we also have the liquidity flippening that I've talked about in the past couple of videos that happens late March to about mid-April that's sort of like a landmine sitting on anyone's thesis right now, okay? So,
how things could play out. Well, there is this massive landmine flippening where right now we have tax returns coming in. That's going to continue. But, we also have people that have to pay taxes and that's going to
kind of start ramping up and then peak around mid-April. At the same time, we have this Iran conflict and if that's still kind of escalated during that time period, that could be like a cocktail of disaster for the markets. I'm not saying
that will happen. I'm just saying that's definitely a potential landmine sitting in the middle of all this that, you know, it is right to disrupt any kind of prediction of how things play out. If, however, we move past that hurdle, if we
know, nothing breaks and we're able to hold the low, things start to look really, really good by your post that period. Liquidity should continue to ramp up into midterms. Bullish behavior, you know, things that prop up the
into the midterms and then post the midterms, you have the entire presidential election cycle, which just means more and more liquidity kind of personal take is I'm actually pretty optimistic, even if we do hit that
landmine, that the 60K bottom should hold, and especially given the current market behavior. That 60K range seems pretty dank solid, you like given the circumstances. And I, you know, I think it's possible that, you know, maybe into
and I've laid this out before in in past videos, is maybe we kind of run up into retrace back down to that bottom, test that bottom, and then we're able to head higher into the end of the year. It's my belief, and I've talked about this in a
winning right now. They have been correct, and I don't want to discount think that a lot of these bears know why they're saying, oh, you know, look, I predicted it. Uh when really they're
to four in this thing. Every four years Bitcoin's going to sell off. They don't out why. Some people point to having, some people point to other things, but their entire ability to predict is based off a really, really simple pattern. And
because, you know, we did have that horrible liquidity conditions in the the government shutdown history, we had the tin tin liquidation event, and that really played into that four-year cycle fear that kind of was that catalyst that
sent us lower. But that was like the peak power of that four-year cycle belief. In that time period is when that belief held the most power, the most ability to influence fear. But now that fear has been realized, and and that
power is dissipating. And I think that in between zone of like here's the point when to sell and here's the point when to buy isn't as powerful. It's not as like you know strong of a cocktail and the market will fall back to macro
conditions which I think will push up Bitcoin's price a lot higher into the think about it, the next catalyst for the four-year cycle would be that four-year cycle works if you guys aren't familiar with it,
I I used to be like a hardcore like four-year cycle, you know, this is it. The way it works is you typically sell off in that fourth year, okay? So at the end of the year between October and December and it kind of moves up, you
been the trend and then you buy back exactly one year later. So that would put it around October 2026 would be the period a lot of these bears are looking and they're saying that's the period I think I should buy back in because
played out. And so you have this really strong buy catalyst in the future around going to say, "Hey, this is the point when I should be buying." They assume past cycles because typically past cycles have had this, you know,
parabolic run-up, this mania phase and then it kind of the bubble deflates over time and it usually takes that year period. That's not the case with with period. That's not the case with with this one. This time we didn't have any
really really weak market state for most of 2025 and we didn't crash because of because we're just in this amazing insane bull market. It was because of this TGA rebuild. It was because of this 1010 liquidation day event and it was
meant really weak liquidity conditions converging into this kind of fear narrative. And at no point between 2022 and today have macro conditions been similar to past cycles, to the past bull runs that we're all used to. That's why
runs that we're all used to. That's why this cycle has not felt at all similar alien. If you've been around if you're around in 2015, you're around in 2021, 2025 was not like that. Anyone saying otherwise is crazy. Like they don't even
it was there was nothing, nothing that felt like those things. People want to know, Bitcoin was at all-time highs, you know, this, this, this." But during bull outperforms gold and, you know, this this time it was massively
underperforming gold. When you price it in gold, Bitcoin was a net negative see into the end of the year is if Bitcoin is going to slowly climb higher. We have that risk period between late March and mid-April, so we could kind of
think you're going to see it steadily climb higher. And the bears will be in doesn't make any sense. Bitcoin should be going lower. What's going on?" And as it climbs higher and higher and higher to that October period where
they're not going to have that legendary bottom that they anticipate to buy in late 2026. Basically, I'm saying this is still a macro story and this story is than I wanted and than I anticipated and I was completely wrong on the timing of
how this played out and I missed a really massive landmine in late 2025. But crypto bull runs come from frothy macro conditions and we're headed you're curious about seeing my entire portfolio or you want to see every time
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