---
title: 'This Sports Betting Strategy Feels Like Cheating'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=ym0kUom94Us'
video_id: 'ym0kUom94Us'
date: 2026-08-12
duration_sec: 825
channel: 'LINEMAKER SPORTS'
---

# This Sports Betting Strategy Feels Like Cheating

> Source: [This Sports Betting Strategy Feels Like Cheating](https://youtube.com/watch?v=ym0kUom94Us)

## Summary

The video presents a sports betting strategy centered on identifying bets with a high true probability of winning but lower implied probability, creating a positive expected value edge. The creator uses a box analogy to explain the math behind the strategy and emphasizes the importance of the mental game in sticking to it long-term.

### Key Points

- **Introduction to the Strategy** [00:01] — The video introduces a sports betting strategy that supposedly compounds results over time, feeling like cheating.
- **Box Analogy: High Probability Bet** [00:15] — A 90% chance of winning with a payout of $20 on a $100 bet yields a 10% edge, leading to consistent profits over many trials.
- **Applying the Analogy to Sports Betting** [02:52] — The strategy involves finding plays with a 90% chance of winning but priced at 80% implied probability, creating a positive edge.
- **Box Analogy: Low Probability Bet** [03:05] — A 10% chance of winning with a payout of $800 on a $100 bet results in a negative edge, causing consistent losses over time.
- **Real Sports Betting Example** [05:22] — Using Joe Burrow's passing yards as an example, the video explains how to compare true probability against implied probability to find an edge.
- **Finding the Best Edge** [07:20] — The best edges are found by moving lines, e.g., a 90% true probability at -400 odds (80% implied) gives a 10% edge.
- **The Mental Game** [08:13] — The mental aspect is crucial; high-probability bets reduce the frequency of losses, helping bettors stay consistent and avoid chasing losses.
- **Conclusion and Final Advice** [12:38] — The strategy is about math and probabilities, not predicting the future. Finding mispriced edges leads to long-term profitability.

### Conclusion

The video concludes that the key to successful sports betting is to focus on high-probability plays with a positive edge, and to maintain a strong mental game to stay consistent. This approach turns betting into a form of investing rather than gambling.

## Transcript

cheating? Imagine a strategy where the longer you play it, the bigger the edge going to show you guys in this video. I'm going to show you guys the exact sports betting strategy that long-term produces results that compound day after
month. Now, first I want to give you guys an example. I'm going to draw 10 boxes. We're going to say that there are 10 boxes sitting on a table, and what you have to do is you have to choose which box has something in it. All
which box has something in it. All right? Let's say, for example, 1 2 3 4 5 right? Let's say, for example, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9. There is nine boxes that have that has something in it. How simple does that seem, right? So,
mathematically, let's do the math behind this. This is a 90% chance that you're in it. Sounds great, right? Sounds like a great deal. Now, imagine this. Imagine if the person that has these boxes on the table says to you, "If you take a
$100 and put $100 down, and you choose a box that has something in it, I'm going to give you 20 bucks. If you choose the box that has nothing in it, well, then you're going to lose that $100. Would you take that deal?" Now, most people
would think, "Well, $100 I'm going to wager to make $20 doesn't seem worth it, right? Doesn't seem exactly worth the money because I'm putting up a lot to odds of you picking a box that has something in it is 90%, okay? 90%.
That's huge. Nine out of 10 times you are going to pick a box that has something in it. So, let's run that over a course of 10 times of you doing that, okay? So, we're going to say 10 times you're able to do this, okay? One time
you picked the box that didn't have anything in it, okay? So, you lost $100 to do is we have to go ahead and do the math here, okay? We lost one time, okay? So, we lost $100 one time. But, now we have 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, 20, 40, 60,
80. We won $180, right? But, we chose the wrong box one time, but we made what? Dollars. We made a profit of $80 being able to do this. Why? Because the price of what that person is giving you for $100 down to make $20 is actually an
implied probability of 80%, which means what? We have an edge of 10% the longer we do this, okay? The longer we do this, we have a plus 10% edge. So, if you sit down and you consecutively do this over a thousand times, 10,000 times, your
edge just continuously produces more and more money. Because the longer you do There's no reason for somebody to sit there and say, "No, I'm not going to do this." Because long-term, you are just going to print money. So, it feels like
cheating. Now, this all you have to do is this analogy that I showed you here is take this and adapt it to sports betting. It's literally that simple. You take this analogy and you flip it to sports betting. You find plays that have
a 90% chance of winning, but are priced at 80%. It's that simple, and I'm going to show you guys a couple examples here going forward. But before we get to more analogy here to make you understand what the general public would do in a
scenario and most actually do and 90% of them actually do. Now, let's go right back to the box analogy here because now here's an example of a real life scenario with a sports better where 90% of the people will fall for this and
want to do this, but you're going to see exactly why it isn't the best option. Let's say one box has something in it, but the person that runs this table says if you put down $100 and you find the box that has something in it, I'm going
to give you $800 in return. Now, that sounds flashy, right? That sounds like, "Wow, I put down 100 bucks. If I pick the right box, I'm going to get $800 that same exact math here with this analogy. So, let's go 10 times here,
okay? We're going to say what? We lose nine times and we end up winning nine times and we end up winning actually one time, okay? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10. All right, so we ended up making we found it one time, right? We made 800
bucks on that one time that we found it. But we lost 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. We lost $900. So what do we get there? Negative 100 bucks every time we did that, okay? The payout, right? Looks flashy, looks cool. 100 bucks down, I
can make $800 if I pick the right box. But we're losing $100 every single time Because our implied probability is 10% probability of us to find something with a box with something in it is 10% as our
implied probability now is 11%. Little bit over 11% at that number. So what does that mean? We have a negative 1% edge. That little percent, minus 1%, costs us $100 every time we do this long-term. So multiply that over 1,000,
over 10,000 times, and what are you doing? You're consistently compounding your losses and you're losing money. This is what most sports bettors do. They want to go out there because they see a small amount of money to turn into
do? They think, "I'm going to go for that because putting down 100 bucks and That sounds way better than putting down $100 and getting $20 back, right?" Sounds Sounds appetizing. But when you actually look at the math behind it,
it's a terrible decision. In long-term, you're going to consistently lose. So again, all you do is take this and you translate this to sports betting. This analogies, let's translate that to sports betting. That way you could see
exactly how this works and where you've been going wrong this whole entire So real life scenario when it comes to sports betting, okay? Let's use a football play for example here. Let's go ahead and let's say Joe Burrow. We're
going to look at Joe Burrow's passing yards on any given Sunday. Let's go his passing yards, the normal line that they have out is, let's say 280. And you got to pick whether it goes over or
under. Now, if we go and take a look at both ways here, let's say for example, how many times has he went over 280 yards in the prior season? Let's just okay? We're not going to use actual true numbers. We're going to use hypothetical
numbers here. But, let's say he went over this number 45% of the time. Now, does that mean? Because if this is what the regular line is at, that means we have an implied probability of 52%, but we have a true probability of 45. We got
a negative 70% edge here, okay? Now, I know some people would say, "If that's other side and take the under here because it'd be at what, 55%, right?" You could, but that's not the only thing that needs to match up, okay? So, for
this side, he would also have to have a match up. A match up against a defense yards. This is a key point that a lot of people miss when they're finding their true probability. Yes, the numbers might match up, and you might have an edge,
but the match up needs to be consistent. The numbers might be correct, and you might actually have an edge, but you also need the match up to align as well. So, if he's playing against a team that gives up 300 passing yards a game, even
though the edge lies on the under here, doesn't mean you can play the under, okay? You got to have the formula of everything to line up here, okay? So, gives up 20 passing yards a game, and they're very good in the secondary. If
that's the case, then if you flip it here and we go a 55% chance for the probability, yes, we have a plus 3% edge here. So, yes, that would essentially work with the right match up. But, the crazy thing is you don't find the
typical lines that the sports book gives you. Where you find the best edge is actually where you move the lines. So, let's go ahead and say, for example, we move this line, all right? We move this all the way back to 200-plus passing
stats on that, let's say he's went over 200 passing yards 90% of the time in the season. But, let's go ahead and say that the odds for this are minus 400, which is an implied probability of 80%. Now, this goes back to our example with the
boxes pretty much. What happens here? His true probability is 90%. Implied is His true probability is 90%. Implied is you have a 10% gap here, a 10% edge. So, the thing is, even though at this price, yes, the odds are lower, our edge is
smaller. When we paid a little bit more, our edge is higher and our probability is higher, and we're going to win more often. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean making more money long term. But, there is things that come into play when
have a higher edge and a higher overall probability. It's the mental game, and that is actually what is the biggest, most important part of this sports betting strategy. Because the mental game is what keeps you straight and
time and time again. Now, let me explain to you exactly why. Now, before we go because it is one of the most important parts of the actual game of sports up with these exact plays that give you the highest probability and give you an
consistently and it feels like cheating when it comes to sports betting, make description to start your trial with the Line Maker AI. So, that way you don't waste hours upon hours trying to figure out which sports bets that you need to
place or how to find the edge. Where literally you could type it in, give me the 90% probability plays that have the highest edge, and it'll spit it out in description, so that way you guys can start your trial with that, and you
don't have to waste hours among hours doing research. So, now I want to talk about the mentality here, the mental game behind this. Because here's two different mentalities that work the same way when you both have an edge, but
okay? So, the edge that I showed you guys, for example, let's go ahead and say that minus play, okay? Let's say we did that consistently at 50, where the implied probability was 52%. That gave us what? Plus 3% edge. But, let's take a
look at the other example here at 400, where implied was 80%, true probability difference here. Not just the percentage, but the real difference is the mentality here when you're doing this long-term. So, the biggest weak
lose. When they lose, they snowball, they don't really know what to do. They start chasing bets, they start betting stuff they don't need to bet, and that's because it's natural. When you lose, something in the brain ticks to where
back. I need to get back quick." When you're playing this type of bet right here, you're going to lose. If you play 55% of the time and you win 55% of the time, you're going to lose 45% of the time. And that 45% of the time when you
lose can trigger this right here, your mental state to go haywire. Reason why is because people can't stand to lose. Doesn't matter if they think that they have an edge long-term. You lose one time and it could snowball everything.
You lose, you know, four out of 10 bets because, like I said, that's at the low hitting 60%. You lose four bets, who knows how you react off of those four losses because you don't see the long-term goal and the long-term edge
there. As in, for example, let's go here. Pretty much profit margin nearly the same long-term. A little bit better here, actually. But, the mental game, imagine winning nine out of every 10 bets that you place. The mental game,
completely different. You feel like you're winning non-stop. You always feel like you're winning. Because, why? You actually are. If you're winning 90% of every 10 bets. You're winning 90 out of every 100 bets. You're winning 900 out
of every 1,000 bets. You're not experiencing the loss factor, okay? The loss factor is what I like to say kills sports better because they can't handle mental game. When they can't handle losing, it triggers them to just go
They're not consistent anymore. They do a bunch of stuff they don't need to be doing. As in, when you were playing higher probability plays, you don't get the feeling of losing that often. So, when it comes, it's not that big of a
deal because you're like, "Oh, I'm going to probably win 10 in a row after this." Exactly the reason why I would always stick to this type of betting rather than this one. Because I'm just being honest with you. People will not be able
to see this through long-term. They will fall off the wagon when they lose a disappear, and they will have to try to start all over again, and it's just and doing the same exact thing over and
over. As for this strategy right here, when you play high probability plays that actually have an edge, long-term for the mental game, it's healthy, cuz like you're always winning, and you don't feel that loser feeling rarely. I
when you do, you know it's followed by a lot of wins after that. So, it just makes you feel better overall, and keeps you consistent and on the right path. you're around all your friends, and all they see is you winning all the time,
doing?" And so, it's pretty cool to be around your friends, because when you're to chase that rabbit, and guess what? They're losing consistently. They're they're going to figure out, "Wow, this guy actually knows what he's doing." So,
you here today, I promise you, you're going to be that one person in your friend group that everybody is looking at saying, "How does this guy just keep what's going to happen every time it happens." And it's not that you can tell
the future. It's just math. It's probabilities. That's really all it is. probabilities. Remember that. You just have to find the right ones that give you a mis priced edge at the sports book. Once you find those, you
you're going to make money. It's that simple. People make it way too hard. But because they're trying to chase something that they're never going to get. They're trying to chase either even money bets or parlays, like for the
example that I showed you, where you put down $100, win $800, and you're play what are you doing there? You are literally fighting an uphill battle the whole entire time. How does it feel to flip that and actually be running
tired? That's where the money's at. That's how you play smart. That's how you go from gambling to actually investing and you actually make money always, I'm Frank Lyman at Sports. I'll see you guys in the next video. Till
see you guys in the next video. Till then, I'm out.