---
title: 'WTF with Iran now....'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=v0D9sptcGfU'
video_id: 'v0D9sptcGfU'
date: 2026-09-23
duration_sec: 1059
channel: 'Meet Kevin'
---

# WTF with Iran now....

> Source: [WTF with Iran now....](https://youtube.com/watch?v=v0D9sptcGfU)

## Summary

The video provides a rapid-fire update on the Iran nuclear negotiations following Donald Trump's UN General Assembly speech, covering market reactions, the internal structure of Iranian power, and the prospects for a deal. The host maintains a cautiously optimistic stance, predicting a short-term market dip before a bullish resolution.

### Key Points

- **US Proposal Delivered to Iran** [00:00] — The US has provided a complete proposal to Iran, which is now being reviewed in Tehran. Markets are impatient and reacting negatively to the lack of an immediate deal.
- **Market Reaction: Oil and Bonds** [00:13] — Brent oil is at $102, and the 10-year Treasury yield is up 11.6 basis points, nearing 5.1%, a 20-year high. This is driven by market impatience and reports of a tanker attack.
- **Tanker Attack and Deal Doubts** [01:08] — Reports indicate a commercial ship was struck by rocket or drone fire from the IRGC, with one crew member killed. This fuels speculation that the deal is dead, but the host argues such strikes often happen before deals are finalized.
- **Potential Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire** [02:22] — Marco Rubio suggests a temporary ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia could be struck alongside an Iran deal, isolated to grain and energy exports to prevent a diesel export ban and imported inflation.
- **Iran's Negotiating Structure** [03:03] — The host explains Iran's decentralized power structure, with the Supreme Leader at the top and the IRGC operating as independent 'spider webs' that can launch attacks autonomously, complicating negotiations.
- **Iran's Spectrum of Desires** [06:14] — Iran has a wide spectrum of views, from dovish to hawkish, even within the IRGC. This leads to varying signals and makes negotiations complex, keeping markets nervous.
- **Core Conditions and Private Deal Items** [07:55] — The three public conditions are ending hostilities, lifting the blockade, and returning sanctioned money. Privately, the host believes there are seven deal items, including the use of Oman-Iran shipping routes for sovereignty and potential taxation.
- **Negotiation Progress and Timeline** [09:34] — Talks are progressing with three-hour and two-hour sessions. The host predicts a deal could be announced within a week, possibly over the weekend or by Monday/Tuesday, creating a potential buy-the-dip opportunity.
- **US Pressure Tactics** [10:15] — The US is ratcheting up pressure, with Iranian aircraft facing potential bans from the US dollar system if refueled or serviced by other countries, starting at midnight.
- **Public Posturing and Propaganda** [11:00] — Both sides negotiate publicly as bullies. Iran uses US accidental strikes on civilians as propaganda, while reiterating its right to peaceful nuclear technology and questioning Israel's nuclear arsenal.
- **Rubio's Positive but Cautious Stance** [12:03] — Marco Rubio pitches the Iran meeting as positive but not a breakthrough, emphasizing that discussions will take time and hard work. The host agrees, noting direct in-person talks are better than mediated ones.
- **Nuclear Issue Softening** [14:27] — The Iranian president's statement that the nuclear issue 'won't be solved on the battlefield' is seen as a softening, implying a willingness to negotiate and possibly make concessions.
- **Political Stakes for Trump** [15:22] — Trump needs a deal before the election to avoid a Democratic landslide, as historical data shows the president's party almost always loses the House in midterms. A deal could help Republicans maintain control.
- **Market Impact and Optimism** [16:30] — The host maintains optimism, expecting a deal to be branded as a win, causing stocks to skyrocket and oil prices to fall. However, he acknowledges short-term volatility, with bonds currently getting 'smoked.'

## Transcript

We've got this out of the Iran situation. Here's everything that's happened within the last 12 hours that have followed Donald Trump's speech at the United Nations General Assembly yesterday.
First of all, the person who was at the United States General Assembly yesterday representing Iran was not the President. That was my mistake for saying that, but today, the President did actually speak. And so, let's break down exactly what has happened. First, the United States has provided a complete proposal to the Iranians.
That is now being reviewed by the capital in Iran. The problem is, the stock market is not very patient, and neither is the bond market.
And this is not to pitch it, there's nothing to sell in this video, but this morning in our Alpha report, I'm just sharing this with you, Trent Fairman, We said, look, yesterday was the UNGA meeting from Donald Trump or the speech from Donald Trump.
The General Assembly is going to keep going on until Monday. But markets are really impatient. They're going to go, well, Trump talked yesterday. Where's the deal? Everybody's going to be freaking out looking for a deal. And they're going to go, no deal? Okay, sell.
And then all of a sudden the stock market goes down and yields go up and oil goes up, which unfortunately is exactly what's been happening. You've got Brent oil at 102. Two, we did have reports that potentially a tanker got struck by rocket fire or drone fire, or both, from the IRGC this morning.
And this has a lot of people going, oh my gosh, this must mean the deal is dead in the water. Quite literally dead in the water. So you've got oil up, and then you've got bonds now up 11.6 basis points, which is insane.
We're almost at 5.1 on the 10-year treasury. not only a 19-year high, but like it's about to be an even more high. It's about to be a 20-year high. It's crazy. In my opinion, there is good news coming, but unfortunately, patience is required.
And that's what we talked about this morning. I said, honestly, you're probably going to get a buy-the-dip opportunity Friday, Monday, between now and Friday and Monday. So patiently buy the dip, but there's a dip coming, especially after we hit all-time highs yesterday.
So what do we have? Here's what we have right now. We've got the proposal in the hands of the Iranians. Markets are going to be impatient until a deal is actually finalized, which I think will be very bullish. It's just short term. You can go through a little low.
Marco Rubio says it's possible that a temporary ceasefire with Ukraine and Russia could also be struck at the same time as a deal with Iran, but the ceasefire with Ukraine and Russia would be isolated to just grain and energy exports
to try to prevent the need for a diesel export ban in the United States, which potentially increases inflation around the rest of the world, which then ends up getting imported over here, especially when we trade with deficit nations,
which Donald Trump is always so upset about. Basically bad, okay? But if you could get to some form of grain and energy export peace and you get a deal with Iran, we obviously expect energy prices to come down. Now, Marco Rubio on Iran this morning says that
talks were largely an exchange of ideas and messages, and the United States concepts of a plan have been sent to the Iranians back in Tehran. They obviously have a delegation here in the United States, but let's be real, we all know who's driving the boat here, and it's the Ayatollah.
Now, physically, the IRGC is running, or driving the boat, and this creates some of the problems. This is why Iran has been so resilient, and a lot of people forget this. When we think of the United States, we think of a very central,
Oops, that was the back of the whiteboard. I probably won't be able to get that off, but that's okay. When we think of the United States, we think Donald Trump, and then we think branches of power, so the head of the Department of War,
and then you have the chiefs of staff, so you have the chief of, let's say, CENTCOM, and then that branches out to the various different branches of the military, the Navy, whatever,
or they've got their chiefs up. You have this very structured government flow. This is very normal. This is what we think of, especially as Americans, we're biased to that sort of understanding. In Iran, you kind of have the supreme leader
up here at the top, sort of a final say on everything But then below you kind of have various different aspects So you have the leader of parliament you have the president then you have the IRGC But the IRGC is not just
one thing. It's kind of like, you sort of have to think about it like IRGC groups. So I think about it like IRGC Sub-1, IRGC Sub-2, IRGC Sub-3. And that's because they purposely operate
in sort of this spider web ideology in Iran. And the idea is that each of these spider webs has the ability to independently launch attacks against ships in the Strait of Hormuz
or against Jordan, you know, U.S. bases in Jordan or Saudi Arabia or, you know, the Houthis are really just sort of an extension of the spiderwebs. The Houthis and Hezbollah would really just be
other little spiderwebs out here. Or Hamas is another example of that. The problem, and this is what Israel faces with Hamas, is they might be able to take off one splinter cell, but you have like 40 splinter cells in Palestine
that you're dealing with. So this is quite problematic. The commercial ship, by the way, oh, here we go, Oman's Maritime Security Center says it evacuated the crew of a commercial ship
after the attack on the ship, and one member of the crew was killed due to the attack. That literally just came in seconds ago, by the way. And the reason I brought that up at the beginning of the segment, too, was we think of, like, well, how? How is it possible that negotiations are going on with Donald Trump and the White House over here
if, you know, one of these splinter cells is still attacking ships in Hormuz? Well, that's because Iran is also very unique in that they have this very wide spectrum of desires here.
So you have, I would argue, most of the people are probably going to be on the more dovish side. But then you have portions of the Iranian government that are extremely hawkish.
And the IRGC generally sits over here. But even within the IRGC, you have extremes in terms of the war, really strong war hawks, and then the ones who are more, you know, peace-driven, if you will, if that's even something you can relate to Iran.
So that makes negotiating with the want very complicated. This is how you get these varying signals. In my opinion, that makes markets very nervous between today, again, as we recorded the Alpha report this morning,
and I'm just sharing that with you. I'm not trying to start you in any way. I'm just sharing that with you transparently. Because I know people are like, all right, you know, how can you be bullish about a deal, but then right now you're bearish? You know, because things change on a day-by-day basis
to where my overall stitched narrative, like if we just were very clear about it, I've been extremely bullish about the economy. Well, frankly, since ADP started recovering this summer, and I've been bullish that we are hitting peak Iran pain early August, right?
And that's roughly when we saw a peak Iran pain. Now we're actually not seeing U.S. responses to some of these occasional missile fires on commercial ships. the U.S. is absorbing that in their insurance plan for these commercial ships that are bypassing the Strait of Hormuz,
because to me, it actually seems like we're going in the right direction in the negotiation. Rubio mentions that this morning there was an exchange of ideas and messages, and that Iran clarified some of their conditions.
The three conditions that we knew of already that were really the basis for everything, like all these negotiations starting, are ending hostilities, lifting the blockade, and returning sanctioned money.
Those are the three core. Now, previously, with the 14-point peace plan, there was, you know, $300 billion to Iran. There were a whole host of other obligations. Now, we believe that that three is actually seven, privately.
So, publicly, we're talking about three. We believe seven is the real number of deal items that they're trying to negotiate in. One of the key items has been this idea that the United States needs to immediately leave the area.
That's probably not going to happen, and I think that was one of those things that had been dropped by the Iranian side. The Iranians did just come out and clarify that one of the things they want in addition to the lifting of the blockade is that the routes that have been established between Oman and Iran end up getting used as people end up transiting through Hormuz for ships
The reason they want that is because they want to feel like they have sovereignty in the region. They can not only track what's going on with shipping in the region, but potentially also pull it, so tax it.
I have not seen from the U.S. side the bearishness about Iran taxing it that I've seen months ago. Months ago, Donald Trump, it'll be free, no taxes. The only one who's going to tax it will be us.
It's actually a great idea. You notice you haven't heard a single word of that from the United States delegation side. I feel like that's a good sign that there's some weakening on the U.S. side as Donald Trump needs to get a win before the election.
And then there's some weakening on the Iranian side as they're also giving up some items. Yesterday, there were three-hour talks. Today, we had two-hour talks, clarifications, deeper talks. This isn't going to happen quickly.
Give it a week, is my guess. Trump, though, has clearly created leverage here with the blockade and to some extent bestens economic D-Day. Be reminded that the Iranian aircraft that leave Iran
and go travel to other destinations or airports are subject potentially to those countries to being banished from the U.S. dollar system if they refuel or service Iranian-based planes. So any Iranian flag playing is going to start having issues starting tonight at midnight.
So we're actually ratcheting up, in my opinion, towards pressuring into a negotiated resolution. This is where we also saw some softness, a lot of hardness from the Iranian president's speech today.
I thought this was interesting. You had Joey Hood, a former U.S. ambassador to Tunisia, suggest that this meeting or this presentation from Iran, from the president, was basically a lost opportunity.
That they could have come with something new or some kind of bold proposal. But I actually think what's happening is Donald Trump and Iran, they negotiate publicly as bullies. Trump says, we're going to annihilate you.
The Iranian president says, we won't be bullied. We are not going to bend the knee. We're the ones being hit. They literally say, we've been the victims of terrorism.
We don't hit civilian populations. That is a direct assault on the United States, accidentally hitting a school and killing 123 Iranian children, accidentally hitting a wedding when they were trying to hit a cell tower.
you know those are failures on the US part and in fairness the Iranians get to use that as propaganda the Iranians reiterating that they have a right to peaceful nuclear technology and that they agree not to have nuclear weapons
we've heard that a million times before that's old news but they basically say why is it that Israel has nuclear weapons and they don't end up having UN weapons inspections but we do so they're sort of bringing that sort of fairness argument
to the stage They say we will never bow our head or bend the knee. This is Iran's point of view here. So the Iran meeting so far is being pitched as positive by Marco Rubio,
but not yet a breakthrough. That discussions are continuing, but that it will take time and a lot of hard work. This is now the Trump administration saying, guys, be patient. I agree with that. I mean, even before the market got nervous and started selling off,
my opinion is that this isn't something you could expect on the first day of the UN General Assembly to walk up, where Trump walks up on the sidelines, shakes hands and goes,
all right, we got a deal. You know, they actually have to build a real framework here. But this is probably better than the framework that was built, you know, through mediators between Pakistan and Oman in the Middle East,
because now you're actually meeting directly and in person the United States delegation members with Qatari mediators and Iranians meeting in person in New York to hash this out.
To me, I'm optimistic. Even though I recognize it feels like loudly oh, it's not happening and there's depression or something. I see it as a short-term buy-the-dip opportunity. That actually might get worse between now and when the deal is announced So this weekend could be a catalyst where a deal gets announced or maybe even next week like Monday or Tuesday which means you might end up seeing your worst Friday or Monday
You know, that's sort of my forecast. That's what I'm looking at. So, you know, in fairness, it does also come across, though, like, hey, well, if strikes are still happening on ships, like, does that actually make it seem like they want a deal?
Oftentimes, strikes happen right before negotiated deals are announced, just to kind of push the other side over the edge, like, just stop, all right, fine, we'll agree, right? This is why you got Trump being so aggressive yesterday
and the president being so aggressive regarding Iran. Whitgoff mentions that the debates are linking, that they're continuing work, and overall, at least what I'm hearing here,
is there's progress being made, which is good. That's what we're seeing on every level. anytime we get a newswire feed update. That's what we're seeing from Rubio, from Whitcoff, from the White House.
That's what we're seeing from Scoops, whether it's from Axios or otherwise. That's good. Again, it ain't done. There's work to be done. I'm still optimistic. But this gives you a good catch-up of everything that's taken place really in the last 12 hours.
It's worth noting that the nuclear issue, the president also said, won't be solved on the battlefield. I did actually think that was a softening of a stance as well. Because to me, that indicates that, hey, we need to solve this by talking and negotiating.
And in fairness, that somewhat implies that they recognize they're going to have to make some concessions on their nuclear program. Maybe I'm just looking at this all through rose-colored glasses. I don't think I am. I think I'm looking at this relatively reasonably, but maybe I'm wrong.
I mean, every deal that's been struck before so far has fallen apart. A lot of that, though, I mean, we had a good JCPOA going. You know, Donald Trump dunked on it and then withdrew from it without having a replacement plan. Obviously, that was stupid.
You know, that was really dumb. So here we are basically renegotiating JCPOA 2.0. But whatever. Whether it's better or worse, that'll be also Monday morning quarterbacking.
The idea now is Trump knows he needs a deal before the election. Because otherwise they're absolutely going to get slaughtered. and by default they're already going to get slaughtered. I mean, if you look at Stockton, Stockton's opinion,
or I guess their research here indicates that the president, who's currently in power, tends to lose seats in the House and lose control of the House every single time going back to World War II
with the exception of 1998 and 2002. That's it. The president always loses the House in midterms, essentially. and my opinion is there will be a democratic landslide
a blue wave if they don't have a deal with Iran by then whereas they actually have a chance at maintaining control the Republicans do if a deal is struck with Iran so Donald Trump knows this is existential
for party power and as a result I maintain my optimism and we know that Trump is the kind of Like, even if the deal sucks, he will brand it as the greatest win possible,
and the stock market will skyrocket on it. Oil prices will come down, and then hopefully we can finally start seeing yields come down, which, because, I mean, in fairness right now, this is rough. You know, this actually hurts artificial intelligence and build-out as well.
I mean, we're up 12 basis points right now, and it just keeps going higher. The yield curve's pretty flat. But the two-year is also up 11.4. It's like, oh my gosh, this is crazy. Bonds are getting smoked right now.
But that's okay. Fingers crossed. Maintain my optimism. But I recognize it's not going to be straight up. Especially since we went straight up from my buy the dip at 700 on QQQ.
And you know, then we hit all-time highs. We're like 748 or 749. It's crazy. You would expect something like that. So I think that's reasonable. If you like that video, check this one out. I think you're going to love it. I'm going to advertise these things that you told us here.
I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Well, congratulations, man. You've done so much. People love you. People looked up to you. Kevin Parker, FFI National Analyst. And you two got neat, Kevin. Always great to get your take.