[00:00] I'm back to the Prove the Basic Strategy video for you. This is a series where we play out a hand 100 times, kind of the right way, and then the wrong way. We're going to kind of see what happens in those 100 hands. This is definitely not enough of a sample size to kind of get to the long run,
[00:14] but it does give you an idea, maybe for some of the doubters out there who think there might be something iffy with basic strategy, they think it's maybe something that the casino makes up, and I'm here to kind of prove that that's not true at all.
[00:27] They were talking about nine versus a dealer's two, and so we're going to use some hearts here to help us out. I have a six and a three of hearts and then a two, so we've got a hard nine versus a dealer's two. This guy over here, I think my green, don't think of this as 25 and 5.
[00:41] Just think there's 40 chips in these piles. So this is going to be my double down guy, which is what basic strategy does not say to do. However, this one over here, this guy is going to be just my hit, and that is what basic strategy says.
[00:57] Now, a little caveat with this one compared to some of the other videos I've done in this series, and that is there is a deviation that's relatively close to zero in which it goes from being kind of the right decision in pitting
[01:09] to if the true count is a plus one or higher, which if you're a card counter, you know what a true count is. If that's the case, then all of a sudden doubling down becomes the correct decision. So there is a potential in this shoe that the count will get high enough,
[01:26] and that might be the right decision. However, in the long run, you know, we're going to have several rounds. We're probably right at zero. It might dip below. It might dip above a little bit. But for the most part, hitting should be the right decision.
[01:41] Now, just to show you that these are all mixed up, if I take the first little bit and give them a quick shuffle, that messes up all the other cards. so it's not like this is in some sort of order or anything. We'll even get them some strips here for you. If I put those right back towards the beginning,
[01:56] then all the rest of the cards behind this MSU are messed up. All right? I'm going to play the first five hands with you, and then so I don't waste your whole day, I'm going to throw the rest of this into a hyperlapse,
[02:08] and we'll play out the other 95 hands there, and so we'll kind of see at the end what these 100 hands playing the wrong way versus 100 hands playing the right way, kind of what is the end result in that, all right?
[02:22] I'm guessing this one's going to be a little bit closer than what you might think. I do need to keep a chip count. Kind of the green and red, I talked about just 40 chips and 40 chips. Don't think of it as the $5 and $25. But because this one is doubling down and this one is not,
[02:35] the chip count can be very different at the end, even depending on what the wins and losses say. So kind of keep that in mind. Alright, that said, this is how it's going to work. I'm going to always start with a whole card for the dealer.
[02:48] That'll also be random. And then this is going to be my double down guy. I'm doing this one first because whatever I get, in this case, this is an 18. I have to keep that in my mind. Whereas over here, it should usually be the same card,
[03:02] but there might be instances where this is low enough where I would take another card against a dealer If I were to get another 2 here well that 9 A 2 would be 10 11 And I can double that but I could hit again which is what basic strategy would say to do
[03:18] So it's possible I might have to take more than that other card in this situation. But in both cases here, it's going to be 18 versus dealer 2. Dealer has 10 and 20, so they're both losers.
[03:30] I'm going to take both of those sets of chips. All right. Now, this guy lost more than this guy. But in both cases, I'm going to mark down the guy that lost here.
[03:42] I'll use some tally marks. Let's lay it down. I'll try to do this. All right. Then I'm going to take all the cards except for the nine and the two. All right. The nine versus the dealer's two there. And then we'll reset. All right.
[03:54] So for this next one, this guy's already going to double. All right. So there, this is 13. And over here, 13, if I were just to hit, it's going to be the same card, right? Because a lot of times people ask, well, what if I would have only hit instead of doubled or, you know, vice versa.
[04:11] 13 versus dealer's 2, again, basic strategy says that we should stand on that, right? And dealer has 12 and 20 again. So, again, both of these guys are losers.
[04:24] So, loss, loss there. Alright, again, I'll take all the other cards. Put this one back. Double. Single one there. Alright, double down.
[04:37] Right, so 19. And again, on this one it would also be 19. I kind of want to get one where this guy would have to hit again. I think that would be interesting. Bueller has 12 and 22. This time they're both winners. However, because this guy doubled, he's going to get double to win.
[04:53] and its number is more like that for this one. But I'm using the same card, so that's why it is the way that it is. We'll reset those. And in this case, we both win. So notice that so far we have the exact same wins and losses,
[05:08] but the chip count is different. I'm going to put those back here. This guy's down two chips. This guy's down one chip. And so it could be a little different at the end because of that. All right. That is three.
[05:21] Maybe let's do two more here before I throw it into a hyperlapse. Whole card. Double. 19. Again, this will be 19. Dealer has 7. 11, 12, 13.
[05:34] And 22. Too many. So that's a win. I think we're back to even for both. So that's going to be relatively similar, except for those instances where this guy does have to take another hit.
[05:48] That's kind of my prediction. and that might make up for the times where maybe, I bet when that happens, when this guy hits again, there's going to be times where they win, where, of course, this guy can't hit again. Like if they got to the 9 and they double with a 2 or something
[06:02] and they're stuck there at 11, well, this guy can maybe hit again and maybe they pull a 10 to get 21. So that might make for some of the differences that we see in the basic strategy. All right.
[06:14] That case was a win, though. So we have two wins and two losses each We got one more coming up Recycle this one Full card double There 19 and a 19
[06:29] Deaver has 12 and 19. So that was a push on each. Okay, so we've done five. The rest of this I'm going to throw into a hyperlapse for you for the other 95 hands.
[06:41] I will probably make it slow enough where if you really want, You can slow down the YouTube studies or something and see every single hand. But otherwise, I'll be back with you with results of these 100 hands playing a 9 versus a dealer's 2.
[07:14] Thank you.
[07:44] All right, guys, I'm back here with the results.
[08:05] And before I give you some numbers, I want to talk about this very last hand because this happened only a handful of times, I think probably less than 10, where we got either a 2 or a 3 on our doubled 9 over here.
[08:17] And when we do that, if you think a 2, of course, we give us an 11, in which case we would still hit as, you know, you can't bust. And as well as a 3, this would give us, for our basic strategy, guys,
[08:29] this would give us a 12. 12 versus a dealer is 2. It does have a deviation, but basic strategy says we should still hit this. And so here is one of those examples where we did hit. And so here was 12. I hit to get 18.
[08:42] The dealer pulled 17, and so this guy lost his two chips that were out there because, you know, 12 is way less than 17. However, by hitting over here, this guy's hand did go higher to 18,
[08:58] which does win, and so they won their chip against the dealer's 17. So I thought that was kind of interesting. again, I'd say that happened maybe like 10 times or so
[09:10] where we pulled either a 2 or a 3 and maybe 5 or 6 of those times this guy ended up winning where this guy ended up losing the other times either they both won or both lost kind of an interesting concept there
[09:24] now, that said, both of these guys were a winner statement we started with 40 chips which is this amount for both However this is the profit and so I think this is 10 in that stack
[09:38] This is 10 in this stack. But this guy came out one chip more. They have 5 and this one has 4, so I got 14 and 15, respectively.
[09:50] So our basic strategy guy did win in those 100 hands. But again, like I said, it could have gone either way. 100 is not near enough big of a sample size to kind of get to the long run. But I was kind of glad that this one did pan out where this one, this guy did end up winning a basic strategy guy by just a little bit.
[10:08] All right. Now, the actual numbers here, if I move these off to the side, let's look at them. And it looks like the questions were the same, but the wins were kind of the big category difference here. Even though this guy had 51 wins, and remember, he's winning double the chips for each of those.
[10:22] This guy had 50, or I think I said it backwards. I looked it up. This had 51 and this had 55 wins. And so kind of interesting on that fact.
[10:34] However, this one had more losses, the poppy, where they doubled down. And so you would lose twice as many chips, whereas our basic strategy guy lost less. And even though they still lose one chip,
[10:48] losing two chips for the double play is going to be obviously a lot worse there. And so that's where that discrepancy kind of came in. So really, really close here, but in the end, just got one more win compared to that loss.
[11:01] You kind of add all those up, and therefore, they were one chip bigger in the end. So that's why there is a deviation for this hand to double down a true count of plus one or higher.
[11:13] and you can see just how close that that DDH probably does come to zero as it's just above S21 and so if you are a card counter you want to know when you have the advantage to double down and get double the chips out there
[11:26] and you're likely going to win in those situations especially in the long run as you do this card counter thing. Now if you want to run your own simulations like this I've partnered with Casino Supply to give you 10% off everything on their site
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[12:19] All right, guys, we've found an interesting one, nine versus dealers, too. I've done a bunch of these. In fact, you can check out the playlist over here. Otherwise, I'd like to hear from you guys. What hand would you like to see next? I'll play it out 100 times for you. Until then, remember, this is A1 Blackjack.
[12:39] .